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Households spending to drive economic recovery

A surge in consumer spending is expected to be a key driver of Botswana’s economic recovery, according to recent projections by Fitch Solutions. Fitch Solutions said it forecasts household spending in Botswana to grow by a real rate of 5.9% in 2022.

The bullish Fitch Solutions noted that “This is a considerable deceleration from 9.4% growth estimated in 2021, it comes mainly from the base effects of the contraction of 2.5% recorded in 2020,” adding that, “We project total household spending (in real terms) to reach BWP59.9bn (USD8.8bn) in 2022, increasing from BWP56.5bn (USD8.3bn) in 2021.”  According to Fitch Solutions, this is higher than the pre-Covid-19 total household spending (in real terms) of P53.0 billion (USD7.8bn) in 2019 and it indicates a full recovery in consumer spending.

“We forecast real household spending to grow by 5.9% in 2022, decelerating from the estimated growth of 9.4% in 2021. We note that the Covid-19 pandemic and the related restrictions on economic activity resulted in real household spending contracting by 2.5% in 2020, creating a lower base for spending to grow from in 2021 and 2022,” Fitch Solutions says.

Total household spending (in real terms), the agency says, will increase in 2022 when compared to 2021. In 2021 and 2022, total household spending (in real terms) will be above the pre-Covid-19 levels in 2019, indicating a full recovery in consumer spending, says Fitch Solutions.  It says as of December 6 2021 (latest data available), 38.4% of people in Botswana have received at least one vaccine dose, while this is relatively low it is higher than Africa average of 11.3%.

“The emergence of new Covid-19 variants such as Omicron, which was first detected in the country in November 2021, poses a downside risk to our outlook for consumer spending, particularly as a large proportion of the country’s population is unvaccinated and this could result in stricter measures being implemented once again,” says Fitch Solutions.

Growth will ease in 2022, Fitch Solution says. “Our forecast for an improvement in consumer spending in Botswana in 2022 is in line with our Country Risk team’s forecast that the economy will grow by a real rate of 5.3% over 2022, from an estimated 12.5% growth in 2021 as the low base effects from 2020 dissipate,” it says.

Fitch Solutions notes that “Our Country Risk team expects private consumption to be the main driver of Botswana’s economic growth in 2022, as disposable incomes and the labour market continue to recover from the impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic.”
It says Botswana’s tourism sector has been negatively impacted by the Covid-19 pandemic and the related travel restrictions.

According to Fitch Solutions, “The emergence of the Omicron variant, which was first detected in November 2021, has resulted in travel bans being implemented on Southern African countries such as South Africa, Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, Zimbabwe and Eswatini. This will further delay the recovery of Botswana’s tourism sector in 2021 and early 2022.”  Fitch Solutions, therefore, forecasts Botswana’s tourist arrivals to grow by 81.2% in 2022, from an estimated contraction of 40.3% in 2021.

It notes that the 72.4% contraction in 2020 has created a low base for tourist arrivals to grow from.  “The rollout of vaccines in South Africa and its key source markets will aid the recovery of the tourism sector over the coming months and this bodes well for the employment and incomes of people employed in the hospitality industry, particularly restaurants and hotels as well as recreation and culture businesses,” the report says.

Fitch Solutions further notes that with economies reopening, consumers are demanding products that they had little access to over the previous year. However, manufacturers are facing several problems.  It says supply chain issues and bottlenecks are resulting in consumer goods shortages, feeding through into supply-side inflation.  Fitch Solutions believes the global semiconductor shortage will continue into 2022, putting the pressure on the supply of several consumer goods.

It says the spread of the Delta variant is upending factory production in Asia, disrupting shipping and posing more shocks to the world economy. Similarly, manufacturers are facing shortages of key components and higher raw materials costs, the report says adding that while this is somewhat restricted to consumer goods, there is a high risk that this feeds through into more consumer services over the 2022 year.

“Our global view for a notable recovery in consumer spending relies on the ability of authorities to vaccinate a large enough proportion of their populations and thereby experience a notable drop in Covid-19 infections and a decline in hospitalisation rates,” says Fitch Solutions.
Both these factors, it says, will lead to governments gradually lifting restrictions, which will boost consumer confidence and retail sales.

“As of December 6 2021, 38.4% of people in Botswana have received at least one vaccine dose. While this is low, it is higher than the Africa average of 11.3%. The vaccines being administered in Botswana include Pfizer-BioNTech, Sinovac and Johnson & Johnson. We believe that a successful vaccine rollout will aid the country’s consumer spending recovery,” says Fitch Solutions.  Therefore, the agency says, “Our forecasts account for risks that are highly likely to play out in 2022, including the easing of government support. However, if other risks start to play out, this may lead to forecast revisions.”

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BOMU, DBS roadshow partners in crime

18th March 2024

The Department of Broadcasting Services (DBS) roadshow has found and trusted the Botswana Musicians Union (BOMU) as a companion it could trust in empowering and facilitating the creative sector, in particular, performing artists and musicians.

BOMU exits to ensure that musicians in Botswana are supported by all platforms and services that are aligned to what they do, which at most times is the production of music.

In 2023, the Union put together grand music awards prized at a whooping P3 million. Indeed, the man working behind the awards, Seabelo Modibe of Total Music Group understood the assignment. For the very first time, BOMU awards left an impressive mark, leaving people murmuring.

With that said and done, BOMU became a very important stakeholder in the on-going DBS roadshow. The relationship started in 2022 when the project was initiated. In this massive project, BOMU plays a role of mobilizing and registering new artists.

In the previous years, the Union has been clouded by dispute and back-and-forth. It was accused of being bungling, purposeless and served no interests of its members (artists). Following the effective execution of the eleventh music awards, artists progressively joined BOMU and the DBS roadshow added cherry on top.

Some of the artists who made it to the Top 30 of the DBS roadshows much-admired the platform, saying it played a major part in changing their lives. Some of them started getting booked, changed their mindsets and consider music as a business entity.

These are some of the few nuggets of wisdom they raked from the man behind the roadshow, Thato Sikwane. He is known as DJ Fresh in the music sector and his company, Big Dawg Productions is the brainchild behind the DBS roadshow.

Matter of fact, DJ Fresh and Modibe worked on this concept together with an aim of unearthing new talent in as much as music is concerned. In order to achieve this goal, the duo had to engage BOMU to allow for the artists to have a body that governs them.

When speaking in an interview with WeekendLife, BOMU Secretary General Rasina Rasina said the roadshow is actually a blessing in disguise, as it was initially considered a tall show.

“This is a much-needed platform for a sector that has been deteriorating over the years. We believe it is here to resurrect the music industry. The DBS roadshow cultivate talent from scratch and nurtures it. This will help us as a Union to have a solid foundation and as BOMU, as we are highly appreciative.”

Rasina said BOMU is very much aware of Season One challenges, adding that they too experienced them. “As BOMU, we therefore appreciate that it was the beginning. Naturally, beginnings have challenges but we are optimistic that everything will be in order as together as a team, we can work to solve all pressing matters that delay the progress of artists in Botswana.”

Successful artists during the DBS roadshow will reap from what they sow. BOMU has been allocated a budget to help artists access the roadshow. Rasina has however refused to divulge the total amount but specified that they ensure artist participation and mobilization, as well as feeding.

“We have learnt from past challenges. We do not pay artists but we assist them with transportation funds to mobilize them to attend the roadshow and showcase. What we offer them is not payment. We ensure their participation, transport mobilization and feeding. They compete, showcase and get the platform they need. We partner with them to deliver a product. Essentially, there is a car, a record deal, airtime deal and cohesion.”

Thus far and during the Season 2 roadshow, BOMU has registered an average of five hundred (500) members. In the process, it has managed to rebuild an average of ten BOMU District chapters nationwide.

Rasina commended the government for coming up with a project that caters for the welfare of artists and creative minds in Botswana.

“Our expectations from the next season is that it will be bigger and better. We appreciate the contribution of DBS and the recent focus towards the creative industry by government. Importantly, it is important to note that the creative industry should never be treated from a blanket approach view. Every region, district, village or town has its own talent. The heritage of Botswana is defined by the creative industry talent.”

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Report links child poverty to disability

12th March 2024

Child poverty is a pressing issue that affects millions of children around the world, and the link between child poverty and disability is a particularly concerning aspect of this problem. The recent research paper published by the Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis (BIDPA) sheds light on the stark reality that children with disabilities are more likely to be living in poverty compared to their non-disabled peers.

The findings of the research paper reveal that children with disabilities face higher levels of deprivation in basic capabilities such as education and health. This means that they are often excluded from essential services and opportunities that are necessary for their well-being and development. The wider gap in education outcomes between children with disabilities and their non-disabled peers highlights the systemic barriers that prevent children with disabilities from accessing quality education.

Moreover, the higher rates of deprivation in health and food security among children with disabilities further exacerbate their vulnerability to illness and malnutrition. This not only impacts their physical well-being but also hinders their overall development and potential. The research paper also highlights the economic disparities faced by children with disabilities, indicating that they are more likely to experience poverty across demographic and economic variables.

The implications of these findings are profound and call for urgent action to address the inequalities faced by children with disabilities. Affirmative action is needed to ensure that policies and interventions are specifically targeted towards addressing the unique needs of children with disabilities. It is crucial to prioritize the inclusion and empowerment of children with disabilities in all aspects of society to ensure that they have equal opportunities to thrive and succeed.

In conclusion, the link between child poverty and disability is a critical issue that requires immediate attention and action. It is essential for policymakers, stakeholders, and communities to come together to create a more inclusive and equitable society where all children, regardless of their abilities, have the opportunity to reach their full potential. By addressing the root causes of poverty and discrimination faced by children with disabilities, we can work towards building a more just and compassionate world for all.

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Botswana’s internet rated the second fastest in Africa

8th March 2024

Botswana continues to make significant strides in its digital trasnformation aspirations, as it secures its position among the top-ranking African countries for mobile internet speed. Based on statistics from the Speedtest Global Index, Botswana has been rated the second fastest mobile internet speed in the continent, with an impressive 43.79Mbps, according to a recent study by Business Insider Africa.

This accomplishment demonstrates Botswana’s dedication to improving the quality of broadband internet in the country; and re-affirms its position as a leader in Africa’s telecommunications and ICT services. “The acknowledgment of Botswana’s internet as the 2nd fastest in Africa reflects our commitment to cultivating a digitally inclusive society,” remarked Mr. Keabetswe Segole, Acting CEO of Botswana Fibre Networks (BoFiNet). “This achievement highlights our ongoing endeavors to enable all citizens to participate in the digital economy.” BoFiNet, the leading provider of telecommunications infrastructure in Botswana, has been instrumental in shaping the nation’s digital landscape.

Reflecting on BoFiNet’s contribution to Botswana’s digital connectivity, the Acting CEO stated:”BoFiNet takes pride in its role in securing Botswana’s position as the 2nd fastest country in Africa for mobile internet. Our robust fibre optic and microwave network has been pivotal in delivering high-speed connectivity to both urban and rural areas, ensuring access to reliable internet services for all citizens. We remain committed to fostering innovation and digital inclusion, thereby paving the way for a prosperous digital future in Botswana.” Through the recently launched SmartBots Village Connectivity project, 1,138 premises across 144 villages in different Botswana districts are able to connect to this fast internet.

Botswana’s population is utilising connectivity creatively as a result of a boom in mobile penetration, which is advancing the nation’s digitalisation. Rapid advancements in mobile high-speed internet are causing a digital revolution in Africa, bringing about changes in areas including the economy, education, healthcare, and empowerment.

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