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Moody’s Africa banks outlook in dark hole towards 2021

Moody’s

Moody’s latest outlook on African banks drew a picture of major local financial institutions as collateral for the Covid-19 sting that collapsed their associates in South Africa.

Among Moody’s publicly rated banks is Absa Group Limited South Africa, a parent to Absa Botswana and FirstRand Bank Limited South Africa, a mother to First National Bank Botswana. Absa Group South Africa with assets sanding at USD 90 143 million, carries a Ba3 rating with a negative outlook while FirstRand South Africa, with assets of USD 89 079 million has a Ba2 rating with a negative outlook too.

When analyzing the already dogged by recession and deteriorating and indebted South Africa, Moody’s had this to say: “Our outlook for the sector (South Africa) is negative. The coronavirus-related disruptions are exacerbating the already challenging operating conditions characterized by low growth and wide fiscal deficits.

For banks, we expect a rise in problem loans to over 7%-8% of gross loans, and a significant drop in profits due to higher provisions and a squeeze in margins. The migration of Stage 1 & 2 loans to riskier Stages 2 & 3 will lead to higher risk weighted assets and lower capital.

Despite depositors’ move to shorter duration products and banks’ reliance on institutional deposits, funding conditions remain stable and liquidity buffers resilient. A planned new banking resolution regime with bail-in features will be credit positive for senior creditors. Good risk management practices will support financial stability.”

In its 2021 Africa banks outlook, Moody’s says there is difficulty in operating conditions and banks’ close links with their respective sovereigns drive the negative outlook. Most African sovereigns like Botswana’s outlook has been negative since the outbreak of Covid-19 in the first quarter of 2020. Moody’s further says, loan quality, profitability and foreign-currency (FC) liquidity will be pressure points, but stable funding and capital will mitigate risks.

This is after Fitch said that weaker-rated Sub Sahara Africa nations may face higher funding costs than before the pandemic, which could discourage their return to markets. On Wednesday Moody’s outlined that there will be stress in African economies as operating conditions will remain difficult, as economic activity, consumer spending and investor confidence remain battered by the pandemic. The rating agency further stated that African sovereigns are heavily indebted and have limited capacity to absorb shocks.

Moody’s said banks’ creditworthiness is linked with deteriorating sovereign credit profiles through their large holdings of government securities. Governments’ capacity to provide support to troubled banks will also be impaired.

However, according to Moody’s, 2021 growth will recover modestly (to 3.3% for Moody’s-rated countries). But financial stability will be broadly maintained as stable local currency deposit funding, high liquidity in local currency, good capital buffers with the equity-to-assets ratio typically exceeding 9%-10%, and gradual improvements in risk management will help to contain the risks.

Moody’s says banks will be hurt via their links with governments as sovereign pressures will continue to weigh on banks’ credit profiles: economic slowdown hampers banks’ financial performance; government capacity to provide support is impaired; while banks are heavily invested in government securities and are hit by a drop in their value.

The African Banking sector will maintain its regional diversity. For example; Egyptian banks will be least impacted by the pandemic. While South African and Nigerian banks will face acute macro challenges, while loan quality and liquidity remain issues for Angolan and Tunisian banks, respectively. East African and Francophone West African banks are better placed than Central African banks given more resilient economies.

The pressure points will be NPLs, profits, FC liquidity and Moody’s researcher expect non-performing loans (NPLs) to potentially double from 2019 levels as payment holidays expire, while increased provisioning needs, reduced business generation and margin pressure erode profitability.

Partly dollarized systems like the oil rich Nigeria, Angola and Botswana’s diamond money reserves where foreign-currency revenues slumped, are more at risk of foreign exchange shortages.
Furthermore, Moody’s said ESG and technology of increasing credit importance is on the forefront. The rating agency outlined the rising environmental risks which will increasingly affect overall economic performance and specific economic sectors, also impacting banks.

On the flip side of the gloom and doom, digital transformation provides exciting opportunities for the banking sector, primarily from rising financial inclusion, says Moody’s. Locally commercial banks have been lauded for their resilience amid covid-19 winds, despite banking stocks taking the biggest hit since March this year at the local bourse.

When looking at the Bank of Botswana Research Bulletin which was released on Monday, a study on ‘Market Structure and Performance in Botswana’s Banking Industry’ gave a positive outcome of a healthy local banking sector. The paper said the banking sector profitability does not raise any competition concerns as they are driven by adoption and use of organizational strategies and technologies that improve the efficiency rather than market power or its abuse.

Last week during the MPC press conference on Thursday, Bank of Botswana Deputy Governor, Kealeboga Shalaulo Masalila explained that the reason why banks were able to remain standing tall during tough times is because they are able to evaluate their processes, their loan books are sound and they strive to expand their income, especially from the interest income to digitalization. He further lauded banks marketing strategies that makes them attractive to customers.

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Jackdish Shah loses interest in BDP

17th May 2022
Jackdish

As the preparations for the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) congress are about to kick off, reports on the ground suggest that the party’s Deputy Treasurer Jackdish Shah will not defend the position in August as he contemplates relocation.

According to sources, the businessman who joined the BDP Central Committee in 2015 at the 36th Congress held in Mmadinare is ready to leave the party’s politburo. It is said he long made up his mind not to defend the position last year. A prominent businessman, Shah, when he won the position to assist Satar Dada in 2015 was expected to improve the party’s financial vibrancy. By then the party was under the leadership of Ian Khama.

According to close sources, Shah long decided not to contest because he has fallen out of favour with the party leadership. It is said he took the decision after some prominent businessmen who are BDP members and part of football syndicate decided to push him out and they used their proximity to President Mokgweetsi Masisi to badmouth him hence the decision.

“The fight at the Botswana Football Association (BFA) and Botswana Football League (BFL) has left him alone in the desert and some faces there used their close access to the President to isolate him,” said a source. Media reports say, Shah does not see eye to eye with BFA President MacLean Letshwiti who is also Masisi’s buddy hence the decision.

BFL Chairman Nicholas Zackhem is said to be not in good terms with Shah, who at one point Chaired the then Botswana Premier League (BPL). “He is seriously considering quitting because of what is unfolding at the team (Township Rollers) which is slowly not making financial gains and might be relegated and he wants to sell while it is still worth the investment,” said a highly placed source.

Shah is a renowned businessman who runs internet providing company Zebra net, H &G, game farm in Kasane, cattle farm in Ghanzi region and lot of properties in Gaborone. He also has two hotels in USA, his advisors have given him thumbs up on the possible decision of relocating provided he does not sell some of the investments that are doing well.

Asked about whether he will be contesting Shah could not confirm nor deny the reports. It is said for now it is too early as a public decision will have to be taken after the national council meeting and prior to the national congress. “As a BDP Central Committee member he cannot make that announcement now,” a BDP source said.

BDP is expected to assemble for the National Council during the July holidays while the National Congress is billed for August. It is then that the party will elect a new CC members. The last time BDP held elective congress was at Kang in 2019. The party is yet to issue writ.

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Govt ignores own agreements to improve public service

17th May 2022
Govt

The government has failed to implement some commitments and agreements that it had entered into with unions to improve conditions of public servants.

Three years after the government and public made commitments aimed at improving conditions of work and services it has emerged that the government has ignored and failed to implement all commitments on conditions of service emanating from the 2019 round of negotiations.

In its position paper that saw public service salaries being increased by 5%, the government the government has also signalled its intention to renege on some of the commitments it had made.
“Government aspires to look into all outstanding issues contained in the Labour Agreement signed between the Employer and recognised Trade Union on the 27th August 2019 and that it be reviewed, revised and delinked by both Parties with a view to agree on those whose implementation that can be realistically executed during the financial years 2022/23, 2023/24 and 2024/25 respectively,” the government said.

Furthermore, in addition to reviewing, revising and de-linking of the outstanding issues contained in the Collective Labour Agreement alluded to above and taking on a progressive proposal, government desires to review revise, develop and implement human resource policies as listed below during the financial year 2022/23,2023/24,2024/25

They include selection and appointment policy, learning and development policy, transfer guidelines, conditions of service, permanent and pensionable, temporary and part time, Foreign Service, expatriate and disciplinary procedures.

In their proposal paper, the unions which had proposed an 11 percent salary increase but eventually settled for 5% percent indicated that the government has not, and without explanation, acted on some of the key commitments from the 2019/2020 and 2021/22 round of negotiations.  The essential elements of these commitments include among others the remuneration Policy for the Public Service.

The paper states that a Remuneration Policy will be developed to inform decision making on remuneration in the Public Service. It is envisaged that consultations between the government and relevant key stakeholders on the policy was to start on 1st September 2019, and the development of the policy should be concluded by 30th June 2020.

The public sector unions said the Remuneration Policy is yet to be developed. The Cooperating Unions suggested that the process should commence without delay and that it should be as participatory as it was originally conceived. Another agreement relate to Medical Aid Contribution for employees on salary Grades A and B.

The employer contribution towards medical aid for employees on salary Grades A and B will be increased from 50% to 80% for the Standard Option of the Botswana Public
“Officers’ Medical Aid Scheme effective 1st October 2019; the cooperating unions insist that, in fulfilling this commitment, there should be no discrimination between those on the high benefit and those on the medium benefit plan,” the unions proposal paper says.

Another agreement involves the standardisation of gratuities across the Public Service. “Gratuities for all employees on fixed term contracts of 12 months but not exceeding 5 years, including former Industrial class employees be standardized at 30% across the Public Service in order to remove the existing inequalities and secure long-term financial security for Public Service Employees at lower grades with immediate effect,” the paper states.

The other agreement signed by the public sector unions and the government was the development of fan-shaped Salary Structure. The paper says the Public Service will adopt a best practice fan-shaped and overlapping structure, with modification to suit the Botswana context. The Parties (government and unions) to this agreement will jointly agree on the ranges of salary grades to allow for employees’ progression without a promotion to the available position on the next management level.

“The fan-shaped structure is envisaged to be in place by 1st June 2020, to enable factoring into the budgetary cycle for the financial year 2021/22,” the unions’ proposal paper states. It says the following steps are critical, capacity building of key stakeholders (September – December 2019), commission remuneration market survey (3 months from September to November 2019), design of the fan-shaped structure (2 to 3 months from January to March2020) and consultations with all key stakeholders (March to April 2020).

The unions and government had also signed an agreement on performance management and development: A rigorous performance management and reward system based on a 5-point rating system will be adopted as an integral part of the operationalization of the new Remuneration System.

Performance Management and Development (PMD) will be used to reward workers based on performance. The review of the Performance Management System was to be undertaken in order to close the gaps identified by PEMANDU and other previous reports on PMS between 1st September 2019 and 30th June 2020 as follows; internal process to update and revise the current Performance Management System by January 2020.

A job evaluation exercise in the Public Service will also be undertaken to among others establish internal equity, and will also cover the grading of all supervisory positions within the Public Service.
Another agreement included overtime Management. The Directorate of Public Service Management (DPSM) was to facilitate the conclusion of consultations on management of overtime, including consideration of the Overtime Management Task Team’s report on the same by 30th November 2019.

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Health Expert rejects ‘death rates’ links to low population growth

17th May 2022
Health-Expert

A public health expert, Dr Edward Maganu who is also the former Permanent Secretary in the Ministry of Health has said that unlike many who are expressing shock at the population census growth decline results, he is not, because the 2022 results represents his expectations.

He rushed to dismiss the position by Statistics Botswana in which thy partly attributes the low growth rates to mortality rates for the past ten years. “I don’t think there is any undercounting. I also don’t think death rates have much to do with it since the excessive deaths from HIV/AIDS have been controlled by ARVs and our life expectancy isn’t lower than it was in the 1990s,” he said in an interview with this publication post the release of the results.

Preliminary results released by Statistics Botswana this week indicated that Botswana’s population is now estimated to be 2,346,179 – a figure that the state owned data agency expressed worry over saying it’s below their projected growth. The general decline in the population growth rate is attributed to ‘fertility’ and ‘mortality’ rates that the country registered on the past ten years since the last census in 2011.

Maganu explained that with an enlightened or educated society and the country’s total fertility rate, there was no way the country’s population census was going to match the previous growth rates.
“The results of the census make sense and is exactly what I expected. Our Total Fertility Rate ( the average number of children born to a woman) is now around 2.

This is what happens as society develops and educates its women. The enlightened women don’t want to bear many children, they want to work and earn a living, have free time, and give their few children good care. So, there is no under- counting. Census procedures are standard so that results are comparable between countries.

That is why the UN is involved through UNFPA, the UN Agency responsible for population matters,” said Maganu who is also the former adviser to the World Health Organisation. Maganu ruled out undercounting concerns, “I see a lot of Batswana are worried about the census results. Above is what I have always stated.”

Given the disadvantages that accompany low population for countries, some have suggested that perhaps a time has come for the government to consider population growth policies or incentives, suggestions Maganu deems ineffective.

“It has never worked anywhere. The number of children born to a woman are a very private decision of the woman and the husband in an enlightened society. And as I indicated, the more the women of a society get educated, the higher the tendency to have fewer children. All developed countries have a problem of zero population growth or even negative growth.

The replacement level is regarded as 2 children per woman; once the fertility level falls below that, then the population stops growing. That’s why developed countries are depending so much on immigration,” he said.

According to him, a lot of developing countries that are educating their women are heading there, including ourselves-Botswana. “Countries that have had a policy of encouraging women to have more children have failed dismally. A good example is some countries of Eastern Europe (Romania is a good example) that wanted to grow their populations by rewarding women who had more children. It didn’t work. The number of children is a very private matter,” said Maganu

For those who may be worried about the impact of problems associated with low growth rate, Maganu said: “The challenge is to develop society so that it can take care of its dependency ratio, the children and the aged. In developed countries the ratio of people over 60 years is now more than 20%, ours is still less than 10%.”

The preliminary results show that Mogoditshane with (88,098) is now the biggest village in the country with Maun coming second (85,293) and Molepolole at third position with 74,719. Population growth is associated with many economic advantages because more people leads to greater human capital, higher economic growth, economies of scale, the efficiency of higher population density and the improved demographic structure of society, among many others.

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