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IMF: Sub Saharan Africa needs $900 billion to emerge out of COVID-19

IMF Africa Department Director Abebe Aemro Selassie

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) last week released its economic outlook for the Sub Saharan Africa region.

According to the document, titled ‘A difficult road to recovery’, the Washington based fund said the  region was  contending with an unprecedented health and economic crisis, one that, in just a few months, has jeopardized years of hard-won development gains and upended the lives and livelihoods of millions.

The IMF Africa experts have left the 2020–21 October outlook broadly unchanged from the June update, with activity in 2020 projected to contract by 3.0 percent, still the worst outcome on record. For 2021, regional growth is projected to recover modestly to 3.1 percent.

This outlook according to IMF Africa Department Director Abebe Aemro Selassie is however  subject to some key downside risks, particularly regarding the path of the COVID-19 pandemic and the resilience of the region’s health systems.

Key to this uncertainties and perhaps the regions’ main uphill task is raising the much needed funding to finance economic recovery and resuscitation plans following an unprecedented erosion of revenue lines across the continent.
Selassie says Sub Saharan Africa’s road to recovery will be made more difficult by uncertainty on the availability of external financing, with associated needs estimated at about $900 billion over 2020–23.

Off the estimated $900 billion needed, sources of about $130 billion to $410 billion are unidentified.

Overall, the region’s outlook will be shaped by the availability of additional financing and the transformative domestic reforms to promote resilience (including revenue mobilization, digitalization, and fostering better transparency and governance), lift medium-term growth, create opportunities for a wave of new job seekers, and progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

The IMF says with this difficult recovery ahead, policy makers have fewer resources at their disposal as they cautiously lift restrictions and reopen economies.

“Transformative reforms are urgently needed for rekindling resilient growth, which will be difficult without external support” said the US based Fund in the outlook.

Abebe Aemro Selassie noted that onset of the pandemic was delayed in sub-Saharan Africa, and infection rates have been relatively low compared to other parts of the world.

He however said the resurgence of new cases in many advanced economies and the specter of repeated outbreaks across the region suggests that the pandemic will likely remain a very real concern for some time to come.

Amid high economic and social costs, African countries are now cautiously starting to reopen their economies and are looking for policies to restart growth.

With the imposition of lockdowns, regional activity dropped sharply during the second quarter of 2020, but with a loosening of containment measures, higher commodity prices, and easing financial conditions, there have been some tentative signs of a recovery in the second half of the year.

Selassie noted, “Overall, the region is projected to contract by 3.0 percent in 2020, the worst outlook on record. Tourism-dependent economies faced the largest impact, while commodity exporting countries have also been hit hard.”

He explained that growth in more diversified economies will slow significantly, but in many cases will still be positive in 2020.

Looking forward, regional growth is forecast at 3.1 percent in 2021. This is a smaller expansion than expected in much of the rest of the world, partly reflecting sub-Saharan Africa’s relatively limited policy space within which to sustain a fiscal expansion.

Key drivers of next year’s growth will include an improvement in exports and commodity prices as the world economy recovers, along with a recovery in both private consumption and investment.

“The current outlook is subject to greater-than-usual uncertainty with regard to the persistence of the COVID-19 shock, the availability of external financial support, and the development of an effective, affordable, and trusted vaccine.” Said IMF

Against this backdrop, Mr. Selassie pointed to a number of policy priorities going forward noting that where the pandemic continues to linger, the priority remains to save lives and protect livelihoods.

The IMF Africa Chief said for countries where the pandemic is under greater control, limited resources will mean that policy makers aiming to rekindle their economies will face some difficult choices.

He explained that both fiscal and monetary policy will have to balance the need to boost the economy against the need for debt sustainability, external stability, and longer-term credibility.

“Financial regulation and supervision will have to help crisis-affected banks and firms, without compromising the financial system’s ability to support longer-term growth. And these efforts must also be balanced against the need to maintain social stability while simultaneously preparing the ground for sustained and inclusive growth over the long term.”

In the outlook the International Monetary Fund said that navigating such a complex policy challenge will not be easy and will require continued external support noting that without significant assistance, many countries will struggle to simply maintain macroeconomic stability while meeting the basic needs of their population.

In this context, the IMF has moved swiftly and disbursed about US$17 billion so far in 2020 which is about 12 times more than we typically disburse each year to help cover a significant portion of the region’s needs and to catalyze additional support from the international community.

However looking ahead, the IMF says sub-Saharan Africa faces significant financing gaps.

The global Fund says If private financial inflows remain below their pre-crisis levels and even taking into account existing commitments from international financial institutions and official bilateral creditors, the sub-Saharan Africa could face a gap in the order of $290 billion over 2020-23.

“This is important, as a higher financing gap could force countries to adopt a more abrupt fiscal adjustment, which in turn would result in a weaker recovery,” warns IMF.

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Sefalana releases best ever HY Financial results

23rd February 2021
Sefalana MD: Chandra Chauhan

Sefalana released their best ever half year financial results. Revenue grew by 2.3% to BWP2.91 billion (HY 2019: BWP2.85 billion). Gross profit increased by 17.4% to BWP215.1 million (HY 2019:

BWP183.3 million) yielding an improved gross profit margin of 7.4% (HY 2019: 6.4%). Administrative expenses went up by 7.8% to BWP97.0 million (HY 2019: BWP90.0 million). EBITA shot up by 31.5% to BWP138.6 million (HY 2019: BWP105.4 million) translating to EBITA margin of 4.8% (HY 2019: 3.7%).

Investment income was BWP22.8 million (HY 2019: BWP28.2 million). Profit before tax increased by 22.8% to BWP148.7 million (HY 2019: BWP121.1 million). Effective tax rate was lower at 23.9% (HY 2019: 28.4%) translating to a 30.7% hike in profit after tax to BWP113.2 million (HY 2019: BWP86.7 million).

Local Trading consumer goods segment was resilient despite a marginal decline in revenue. Revenue declined by 1.6% to BWP1.59 billion (HY 2019: BWP1.62 billion), however a 2.0% decline in cost of goods sold offset decline in revenue to see gross profit increase by 7.6% to BWP75.6 million (HY 2019: BWP70.3 million), an improved gross profit margin of 4.8% (HY 2019: 4.3%) was realized as a result.

Profit for the period was down 2.4% to BWP34.8 million (HY 2019: BWP35.7 million) mainly impacted by restrictions on liquor sales which have been in place for the entire reporting period. At the beginning of the financial year, the group manned 4 Hyper Stores (“Sefalana Hyper”), 25 Cash& Carry stores (“Sefalana Cash& Carry”) and 29 supermarket retail stores (“Sefalana Shopper”).During the period, Sefalana Shopper retail store in Shakawe, Sefalana Liquor outlet in Tlokweng were opened, and Sefalana Shopper Molepolole store was refurbished.

Lesotho has seen its revenue increase by 30.9% to BWP295.7 million (HY 2019: BWP225.8 million). Profit before tax spiked 162.4% to BWP1.9 million (HY 2019: -BWP3.1 million). Namibia has performed well to place it as the largest contributor to profit before tax. The segment’s revenue increased by 5.5% to BWP896.8 million (HY 2019: BWP850.2 million). Gross profit rose by 25.4% to BWP60.9 million (HY 2019: BWP48.6 million) translating to an improved gross profit margin of 6.8% (HY 2019: 5.7%). Profit before tax went up by 40.6% to BWP39.8 million (HY 2019: BWP28.3 million).

The Manufacturing arm had an excellent performance. Revenue rose by 26.7% to BWP125.0 million (HY 2019: BWP98.7 million). Gross profit increased by 39.4% to BWP28.6 million (HY 2019: BWP20.5 million), producing a gross profit margin of 22.9% (HY 2019: 20.8%). Profit before tax shot up by 96.5% to BWP16.0 million (HY 2019: BWP8.1 million). The profitability of this business is largely driven by the timing of orders placed by Government for its various feeding schemes and availability of raw material.

The milling division has for all six months manufactured and supplied in full to the Government, however only one third of the total contract volumes was awarded to the business in respect of the 24 month contract issued in April 2020. Raw materials have been procured and contracts entered into for procurement of grain to fulfill any additional volumes that the Government might require.

Beverages division was awarded a 24 month supply of milk tender to the Government for the children’s feeding scheme in March 2019 which is currently being fulfilled. There has been a shortage in raw materials in the region due to a reduced number of dairy cows during the pandemic as farmers placed more focus on meat production. Despite an underway catch up on reinstating dairy cow population the business expects shortages to continue in early 2021.

The Trading others segment experienced a decline on its top and bottom line figures. Revenue went down by 43.9% to BWP42.2 million (HY 2019: BWP75.2 million). Gross profit went down by 23.9% to BWP11.5 million (HY 2019: BWP15.1 million). Profit before tax went down 56.8% to BWP3.2 million (HY 2019: BWP7.4 million). The segment was impacted by a reduction in sales of motor vehicles as customers prioritized spending on essential goods and services.

The Property segment in Botswana performed well, with all most all properties tenanted for leases ranging between two-six years. Setlhoa site is complete, comprising of Sefalana Shopper store, petrol station and rentals to Ital Tiles and CTM. Just over 5000sqm of land remains vacant. The space initially set out for the group’s Motor Dealership will be considered for other alternative options in a bid to optimize return from the site. In contra, Zambia performed below the previous period as the past two years elapsed in search of replacement tenants for their premises due to an influx of similar properties.

A 3000sqm warehouse space is expected to commence development in February 2021 to house bottled water and fruit juice plants. Milling division anticipates expansion by the end of 2021, the expansion is to include a wheat milling plant which will leverage on existing infrastructure and complement existing milling activities.

A phase 2 investment in Australian business is expected in May 2021. Five more stores will be acquired through this investment to bring the stores to a total of 12 in that market. The investment amount is anticipated to be around P80 million, to be funded through existing cashflows.

The preference share agreement on the South African consortium matures in July 2022. The group’s appetite for conversion of its investment in to a 30% equity stake will be influenced by the covid-19 pandemic impact. As such a decision will be made closer to maturity date.

The group maintains that its 40% interest in Grow Mine Africa (Pty) Limited, the Preferred Bidder in the National Lottery remains in place. According to management, the judgement of urgent application was in favor of Grow Mine and the formal ruling by the courts will be issued next week. Accordingly, further negotiations with the Gambling Authority are expected in quarter one of 2021.

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Botswana Diamonds secures funding for CKGR exploration

23rd February 2021
Sekaka-Diamonds-Exploration

Botswana Diamond PLC, a Botswana Stock Exchange (BSE) listed exploration company has moved a step closer towards developing it’s much talked about gem deposits around the Central Kalahari area in Botswana.

On Tuesday the company notified its shareholders through a circular published on the BSE, that it has entered into a cooperation agreement to fund exploration of its prospecting licence assets in Botswana with Diamexstrat Botswana Pty Ltd (DESB), which in turn has an alliance agreement with Burgundy Diamond Mines Limited, an Australia Stock Exchange (ASX) listed mining company.

BOD’s prospecting assets comprise the recently acquired Sekaka Diamonds Exploration Pty Ltd (Sekaka) database and Prospecting Licenses, as well as the Prospecting Licences held by BOD’s subsidiary, Sunland Minerals Pty Ltd (Sunland Minerals).

According to the statement from Botswana Diamond, Diamexstrat Botswana and its partner, Burgundy would earn up to a 70% interest in BOD’s Botswana Sunland Minerals and Sekaka’s Prospecting Licences.

On the other hand BOD can earn a 15% interest in Prospecting Licences held by Diamexstrat and its partners on the first US$1.5m spent on exploration by Diamexstrat where BOD’s database assists in the discovery of a primary kimberlite.

On 3rd party Prospecting Licences where targets are identified in BOD’s database, a joint earn-in will be negotiated at the time. For new Botswana Prospecting Licences, Diamexstrat, and its partner, Burgundy can earn up to 70%.  Under the Agreement, the parties have agreed to utilize BOD’s diamond exploration database, which it acquired in last year as part of the acquisition of Sekaka Diamonds Exploration Pty Ltd (Sekaka).

The database contains the results of work undertaken by Sekaka’ former owner, Petra Diamonds, since 2005, and includes data in respect of airborne, including the Falcon survey, and ground magnetics (including gravity and EM), in addition to heavy mineral sampling.

DESB has six months to conduct an initial review of BOD’s database , in order to identify exploration targets within any of BOD’s existing Sunland and Sekaka Prospecting Licences (excluding the KX36 Kimberlite held by Sekaka) (the “Designated PL”).

DESB will be entitled to earn a 50% interest in a Designated PL by meeting the annual minimum exploration expenditure commitment on the Designated PL and in addition either discovering a kimberlite through the intersection of kimberlite in any drill holes or a potential secondary diamondiferous alluvial deposit through the intersection of gravels in a drill hole or pit.

DESB shall be entitled to earn an additional 1%, to hold 51% in any Designated PL, by proving the primary kimberlite or alluvial deposit to be diamondiferous through funding the required micro-diamond analysis or bulk sampling.

DESB will also be entitled to earn a further 19%, to hold 70% in the Designated PL, by subsequently funding and delivering a bankable feasibility study. Any Prospecting Licence not selected by DESB at the end of the six-month period will remain wholly-owned by BOD.

Where it is agreed that geological data present in the database that was not previously available to DESB has assisted in the discovery of a kimberlite or a secondary alluvial deposit within the Exploration Area , BOD shall be granted a 15% free carry for the initial approved US$1.5 million of Exploration Expenditure by DESB on the discovery. Once the Exploration Expenditure has been incurred, each party will contribute funding in accordance with its interest or be diluted pro-rata.

Sunland Minerals holds 12 active Prospecting Licences in the Gope/CKGR (Kalahari) area. As at 30 June 2020, the audited carrying value of BOD’s Sunland Minerals assets amounted to £1.1 million and Sunland’s loss before tax amounted to £43,101.

In the year ended 30 June 2020, Sunland’s Exploration Expenditure, mainly comprising licence fees and the costs of maintaining the licence in good standing, together with agreed fixed costs and expenses, amounted to £65,760.

On 30 November 2020, Botswana Diamonds completed the acquisition of Sekaka which holds three Prospecting Licences in the Central Kalahari Game Reserve in Botswana, PL169/2019, PL058/2007 and PL224/2007, which includes the KX36 kimberlite pipe.

The acquisition also included an extensive database. The consideration comprised a cash payment of US$300,000 and a 5% royalty on future revenues.  The first deferred consideration cash payment of US$150,000 will be payable on 27 November 2021, being the first anniversary of completion of the acquisition and the balance on or before 27 November 2022.

In Sekaka’s audited annual financial statements for the year ended 30 June 2019, Sekaka reported a loss before taxation of Pula 16,875,179 (equivalent to approximately £1.16 million, which included a non-cash foreign exchange loss of Pula 11,688,432 (equivalent to approximately £0.8 million) on the carrying value of the historic intercompany debt which was extinguished on acquisition.

As at 30 June 2019, Sekaka had audited total assets of Pula 6,565,700 (equivalent to approximately £425k). Diamexstrat is a privately owned company focused on diamond exploration in Botswana chaired by Gerard de la Vallee Poussin and with Barry Bayly as the Chief Executive Officer. Both Gerard and Barry have extensive experience in the exploration for diamondiferous kimberlites in Africa.

Commenting on the cooperation between BOD and Diaexstrat , James Campbell, Managing Director, of BOD said the partnership will progress the extensive and highly prospective exploration assets in Botswana which comprises Sekaka Diamonds and with our own drill-ready prospects in Sunland Minerals.

“I look forward to working with the Diamexstrat and Burgundy teams made-up of complimentary highly experienced and leading experts in the field of diamond exploration and project development”.  John Teeling, Chairman of Botswana Diamonds Board of Directors said Botswana is one of the world’s best addresses for diamond exploration. He explained that the combination of a fresh approach and advanced technology, supported by a recovering diamond market, presents both parties with significant opportunities.

“I am delighted to announce this partnership with experienced Diamexstrat, and its ASX listed-partner, Burgundy, which expands and deepens our exploration work.”

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Business

Tlou Energy announces first carbon neutral plant

23rd February 2021
Tlou-Enegery

As countries continue to battle climate change which is a result of increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, local coal-bed Methane (CBM) exploration outfit, Tlou Energy this week revealed intent to make the Lesedi Power project the first carbon neutral power project in Botswana.

The multi-listed company, which is focused on generating cleaner power in Botswana for supply into the local and regional power markets said they have already negotiated land access and leasing agreements with relevant land-holders for the power generation facility and new field operations camp.

According to a statement from Botswana Stock Exchange (BSE) listed energy entity, there have been recent steps taken to acquire additional land for carbon sequestration and there is also availability of land and labour within the Lesedi project which favours Tlou Energy in developing carbon neutral power project.

Carbon sequestration involves capturing and storing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere so that it potentially reduces its contribution to global warming.  It is essentially the long-term storage of carbon in soil, plants, and geological formations. Carbon sequestration can occur naturally and as a result of human activities and typically refers to the storage of carbon that has the immediate potential to become carbon dioxide gas.

Tlou Energy Managing Director, Tony Gilby commented: “There is considerable scope for using the savanna ecosystem of the Lesedi region for carbon sequestration by protecting it from burning and intensive grazing leading to an increase in the ability of the vegetation to store carbon over time.” “This will assist Tlou to be able to supply carbon neutral power to the considerable number of potential customers in the region.”

Gilby also revealed that the regional power consumer, Orapa diamond mine operated by Debswana and located north of Tlou’s gas fields has publicly stated their objective to decrease their carbon footprint. According to Tlou Energy MD, the Lesedi project area is considered as shrub savanna containing various tree species. He however noted that subdivisions found within Tlou’s project area are predominantly rural with most of the land being deployed due to livestock agriculture.

“Tlou  is  in  the  process  of  negotiating  the  acquisition  of  land  to  reduce  livestock numbers  and  implement  fire mitigation measures. This will substantially increase the amount of available woody biomass which can be used to claim carbon credits within the project area,” he said.

The company said carbon credits will be offset against the carbon dioxide associated with Lesedi’s gas fired power generation component noting that the gas will in any event produce considerably less carbon dioxide compared to the ones generated by coal and diesel.

“Carbon reduction is part of Tlou’s commitment to the environment and part of the company’s Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) program aimed at enhancing the lives of the local population and regional communities,” said Tlou energy MD.

“Tlou has a track record of supporting local charities and youth groups and looking to grow local employment with investment in community ventures. This includes programs aimed at growing higher nutritional value crops for local livestock so grazing could be reduced and biomass preserved, as well as promoting wildlife.”

Meanwhile, last month Botswana Government through Ministry of Mineral Resources, Green Technology & Energy Security (MMGE) underscored its intention to support power generation through Coal-Bed- Methane (CBM). Tlou’s MD Gilby commented, “It is great to see that Botswana is open for business and the Government is motivated to get the gas industry up and running.

Gilby revealed that his company plans to start development of the Lesedi project as soon as possible noting that “confirmation of the Government’s enthusiasm to provide the necessary support to ensure commercial development of CBM is very well received.” “In addition, we have also recommenced negotiations with Botswana based project financiers this month as we aim to close a deal for funding as soon as possible.

After what was an extremely challenging year the Company is already making progress in 2021 and anticipate further advancement on all fronts in the coming term. We look forward to updating the market with further developments in due course,” he concluded.

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