The reality of an economy going on its knees came last week with the release of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter of 2020 with a decrease of 27 percent. While government expects the economy to shrink by 8.9 percent this year, commercial Rand Merchant Bank maintains an expectation of 10.5 percent contraction in growth in 2020.
All industries in the domestic economy contracted, save for General Government which became the major contributor to GDP for the first time in many years by 19.7 percent. When the domestic economy was hit, “due to the impact of measures that were put in place to combat the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic,” all industries fell except Government, Agriculture and government owned utilities; Water & Electricity.
According to Statistics Botswana, Botswana Government business survived a huge contraction because it “instigated robust fiscal policy responses in order to influence macroeconomic conditions.” There was also aggregation of demand of goods and services, employment, inflation and economic growth. This was done despite contributing to deficits or drawing down of budget surpluses. Government also created new Covid-19 focused employment in the Public Administration sector in order to adhere to the disease protocols like recruitment of teachers, Safety and Health Employees (SHE) and other temporary employees across Ministries.
Most private sector players felt the scourge of Covid-19 especially in Mining and Quarrying where there was a decrease in the real value added of Mining by 60.2 percent which was mainly influenced by Diamond and Coal real value added. There are many private companies in the coal and mining business which are losing value, some are listed in the local stock exchange. Diamond production in carats went down by 67.0 percent while Coal production in tonnes decreased by 40.7 percent.
Companies in the industry of Trade, Hotels and Restaurants felt it when its real value added went down by 40.3 percent in the second quarter of 2020 compared to an increase of 5.1 percent registered in the same quarter of the previous year. The Manufacturing industry recorded a decline of 31.3 percent in real value added during the second quarter of 2020, compared to a growth of 3.5 percent registered in the corresponding quarter of 2019 and this sharp reduction is attributed to a massive decline in the sub-industries of Beverages and Other Manufacturing. These sub-industries include diamonds processing by 58.5 percent and the production of beverages (chibuku and beers) which declined drastically by 84.2 percent due to lockdown during the quarter under review.
It was tools down in the construction industry with all that was coming with the Covid-19 containment measures and lockdowns, the industry recorded a decline of 36.0 percent. The Finance and Business Services industry was also not spared and registered a negative growth of 11.9 percent due to the decline in the real value added of Business Services and Real Estate by 24.4 and 17.8 percent respectively.
All the firms in the transport business also suffered, the Transport and Communications value added decreased by 16.9 percent in the second quarter of 2020,compared to 5.4 percent recorded in the same quarter of the previous year. This steep decline was most significant in the sub-industries, and was attributed to the lockdown measures that restricted movement of passengers and permitted limited goods freight traffic.
Last week when parliament moved to extend the State of Emergency (SoE) for a further six months, the private sector took a firm stance against SoE before exposing its negative implications on the local economy. In a statement released this week, Business Botswana leader of the private sector, stopped short of calling SoE a draconian anti-progressive law which will weigh heavily on the already feeble economy.
According to Business Botswana, such an extension would, without a doubt cause further damage to an economy that is already on its knees. In the 2020/21 – 2022/2023 Economic Recovery and Transformation Plan (ERTP) much more emphasis, at least on the document, was on jumpstarting the economy by igniting the private sector. But many critics are already sceptical on the ERTP implementation, in the specified time frame. Some economists believe implementation of ERTP will further open the economy.
According to a report seen by this publication, government is expected to publish ERTP in 4Q:2020. But the implementation of ERTP is expected to begin in 2021. “With its success relying heavily on prudent project management by government,” says the report. In the ERTP BusinessPost made a scientific observation that words “sector,” “informal” and “private” were the most used, meaning the mentioned were in the minds of those who made the fiscal plan. But this is not a reflection of what is on the ground, with many companies crying for rescue.
Meanwhile the Business Expectation Survey done during this country’s first lockdown stated that the businesses are ‘credit-shy.’ Also, companies are failing to hold on to jobs, they hanging onto these jobs because they are forced to by SoE laws despite the stinging financial implication from Covid-19. Already more than 400 local companies have officialised an intent to purge jobs at the Commissioner of Labour according to information received by this publication last month.
“Several instruments were put in place to support businesses but a number of these are not in place and for those that are, it is impossible to access them; the question therefore is what is government going to do in the next 6 months different from the previous 6 months?” said Business Botswana president Gobusamang Keebine. Business Botswana President said the Covid-19 pandemic has caused a lot of damage to the economy as businesses are currently operating at bare minimum.
He said that while most companies have folded others are continuing by way of liquidations to avoid the extended debt the SoE places on these companies. “Most employees, though not retrenched as it would be contrary to the SoE are home without pay; any further disturbance to the business environment will kill enterprises and they are certainly going to find it difficult to start all over again,” said Keebine.
Keebine said it is best to deal with the results of lifting the SoE than to postpone these where there will be even greater negative consequences. He said unemployment is going to reach peak levels, crime is going to dramatically increase and social ills are going to increase when people lose their properties. Business Botswana advised that rather government should have used the Public Health Emergency (PHE) Act, which is a tool which can achieve the same objective as SoE but without exposing the economy to very stringent restrictions as it is the case now.
“Using the (PHE) tool will relief Government of the need to lay out a lot of money to mitigate loses arising from businesses having to close temporarily due to lockdowns, etc.; money that the economy and Government does not have. Government must be bold and open the economy now and rescue whatever remains and can be rescued than to extend that action by another 6 months,” said Keebine.
As the preparations for the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) congress are about to kick off, reports on the ground suggest that the party’s Deputy Treasurer Jackdish Shah will not defend the position in August as he contemplates relocation.
According to sources, the businessman who joined the BDP Central Committee in 2015 at the 36th Congress held in Mmadinare is ready to leave the party’s politburo. It is said he long made up his mind not to defend the position last year. A prominent businessman, Shah, when he won the position to assist Satar Dada in 2015 was expected to improve the party’s financial vibrancy. By then the party was under the leadership of Ian Khama.
According to close sources, Shah long decided not to contest because he has fallen out of favour with the party leadership. It is said he took the decision after some prominent businessmen who are BDP members and part of football syndicate decided to push him out and they used their proximity to President Mokgweetsi Masisi to badmouth him hence the decision.
“The fight at the Botswana Football Association (BFA) and Botswana Football League (BFL) has left him alone in the desert and some faces there used their close access to the President to isolate him,” said a source. Media reports say, Shah does not see eye to eye with BFA President MacLean Letshwiti who is also Masisi’s buddy hence the decision.
BFL Chairman Nicholas Zackhem is said to be not in good terms with Shah, who at one point Chaired the then Botswana Premier League (BPL). “He is seriously considering quitting because of what is unfolding at the team (Township Rollers) which is slowly not making financial gains and might be relegated and he wants to sell while it is still worth the investment,” said a highly placed source.
Shah is a renowned businessman who runs internet providing company Zebra net, H &G, game farm in Kasane, cattle farm in Ghanzi region and lot of properties in Gaborone. He also has two hotels in USA, his advisors have given him thumbs up on the possible decision of relocating provided he does not sell some of the investments that are doing well.
Asked about whether he will be contesting Shah could not confirm nor deny the reports. It is said for now it is too early as a public decision will have to be taken after the national council meeting and prior to the national congress. “As a BDP Central Committee member he cannot make that announcement now,” a BDP source said.
BDP is expected to assemble for the National Council during the July holidays while the National Congress is billed for August. It is then that the party will elect a new CC members. The last time BDP held elective congress was at Kang in 2019. The party is yet to issue writ.
The government has failed to implement some commitments and agreements that it had entered into with unions to improve conditions of public servants.
Three years after the government and public made commitments aimed at improving conditions of work and services it has emerged that the government has ignored and failed to implement all commitments on conditions of service emanating from the 2019 round of negotiations.
In its position paper that saw public service salaries being increased by 5%, the government the government has also signalled its intention to renege on some of the commitments it had made. “Government aspires to look into all outstanding issues contained in the Labour Agreement signed between the Employer and recognised Trade Union on the 27th August 2019 and that it be reviewed, revised and delinked by both Parties with a view to agree on those whose implementation that can be realistically executed during the financial years 2022/23, 2023/24 and 2024/25 respectively,” the government said.
Furthermore, in addition to reviewing, revising and de-linking of the outstanding issues contained in the Collective Labour Agreement alluded to above and taking on a progressive proposal, government desires to review revise, develop and implement human resource policies as listed below during the financial year 2022/23,2023/24,2024/25
They include selection and appointment policy, learning and development policy, transfer guidelines, conditions of service, permanent and pensionable, temporary and part time, Foreign Service, expatriate and disciplinary procedures.
In their proposal paper, the unions which had proposed an 11 percent salary increase but eventually settled for 5% percent indicated that the government has not, and without explanation, acted on some of the key commitments from the 2019/2020 and 2021/22 round of negotiations. The essential elements of these commitments include among others the remuneration Policy for the Public Service.
The paper states that a Remuneration Policy will be developed to inform decision making on remuneration in the Public Service. It is envisaged that consultations between the government and relevant key stakeholders on the policy was to start on 1st September 2019, and the development of the policy should be concluded by 30th June 2020.
The public sector unions said the Remuneration Policy is yet to be developed. The Cooperating Unions suggested that the process should commence without delay and that it should be as participatory as it was originally conceived. Another agreement relate to Medical Aid Contribution for employees on salary Grades A and B.
The employer contribution towards medical aid for employees on salary Grades A and B will be increased from 50% to 80% for the Standard Option of the Botswana Public “Officers’ Medical Aid Scheme effective 1st October 2019; the cooperating unions insist that, in fulfilling this commitment, there should be no discrimination between those on the high benefit and those on the medium benefit plan,” the unions proposal paper says.
Another agreement involves the standardisation of gratuities across the Public Service. “Gratuities for all employees on fixed term contracts of 12 months but not exceeding 5 years, including former Industrial class employees be standardized at 30% across the Public Service in order to remove the existing inequalities and secure long-term financial security for Public Service Employees at lower grades with immediate effect,” the paper states.
The other agreement signed by the public sector unions and the government was the development of fan-shaped Salary Structure. The paper says the Public Service will adopt a best practice fan-shaped and overlapping structure, with modification to suit the Botswana context. The Parties (government and unions) to this agreement will jointly agree on the ranges of salary grades to allow for employees’ progression without a promotion to the available position on the next management level.
“The fan-shaped structure is envisaged to be in place by 1st June 2020, to enable factoring into the budgetary cycle for the financial year 2021/22,” the unions’ proposal paper states. It says the following steps are critical, capacity building of key stakeholders (September – December 2019), commission remuneration market survey (3 months from September to November 2019), design of the fan-shaped structure (2 to 3 months from January to March2020) and consultations with all key stakeholders (March to April 2020).
The unions and government had also signed an agreement on performance management and development: A rigorous performance management and reward system based on a 5-point rating system will be adopted as an integral part of the operationalization of the new Remuneration System.
Performance Management and Development (PMD) will be used to reward workers based on performance. The review of the Performance Management System was to be undertaken in order to close the gaps identified by PEMANDU and other previous reports on PMS between 1st September 2019 and 30th June 2020 as follows; internal process to update and revise the current Performance Management System by January 2020.
A job evaluation exercise in the Public Service will also be undertaken to among others establish internal equity, and will also cover the grading of all supervisory positions within the Public Service. Another agreement included overtime Management. The Directorate of Public Service Management (DPSM) was to facilitate the conclusion of consultations on management of overtime, including consideration of the Overtime Management Task Team’s report on the same by 30th November 2019.
A public health expert, Dr Edward Maganu who is also the former Permanent Secretary in the Ministry of Health has said that unlike many who are expressing shock at the population census growth decline results, he is not, because the 2022 results represents his expectations.
He rushed to dismiss the position by Statistics Botswana in which thy partly attributes the low growth rates to mortality rates for the past ten years. “I don’t think there is any undercounting. I also don’t think death rates have much to do with it since the excessive deaths from HIV/AIDS have been controlled by ARVs and our life expectancy isn’t lower than it was in the 1990s,” he said in an interview with this publication post the release of the results.
Preliminary results released by Statistics Botswana this week indicated that Botswana’s population is now estimated to be 2,346,179 – a figure that the state owned data agency expressed worry over saying it’s below their projected growth. The general decline in the population growth rate is attributed to ‘fertility’ and ‘mortality’ rates that the country registered on the past ten years since the last census in 2011.
Maganu explained that with an enlightened or educated society and the country’s total fertility rate, there was no way the country’s population census was going to match the previous growth rates. “The results of the census make sense and is exactly what I expected. Our Total Fertility Rate ( the average number of children born to a woman) is now around 2.
This is what happens as society develops and educates its women. The enlightened women don’t want to bear many children, they want to work and earn a living, have free time, and give their few children good care. So, there is no under- counting. Census procedures are standard so that results are comparable between countries.
That is why the UN is involved through UNFPA, the UN Agency responsible for population matters,” said Maganu who is also the former adviser to the World Health Organisation. Maganu ruled out undercounting concerns, “I see a lot of Batswana are worried about the census results. Above is what I have always stated.”
Given the disadvantages that accompany low population for countries, some have suggested that perhaps a time has come for the government to consider population growth policies or incentives, suggestions Maganu deems ineffective.
“It has never worked anywhere. The number of children born to a woman are a very private decision of the woman and the husband in an enlightened society. And as I indicated, the more the women of a society get educated, the higher the tendency to have fewer children. All developed countries have a problem of zero population growth or even negative growth.
The replacement level is regarded as 2 children per woman; once the fertility level falls below that, then the population stops growing. That’s why developed countries are depending so much on immigration,” he said.
According to him, a lot of developing countries that are educating their women are heading there, including ourselves-Botswana. “Countries that have had a policy of encouraging women to have more children have failed dismally. A good example is some countries of Eastern Europe (Romania is a good example) that wanted to grow their populations by rewarding women who had more children. It didn’t work. The number of children is a very private matter,” said Maganu
For those who may be worried about the impact of problems associated with low growth rate, Maganu said: “The challenge is to develop society so that it can take care of its dependency ratio, the children and the aged. In developed countries the ratio of people over 60 years is now more than 20%, ours is still less than 10%.”
The preliminary results show that Mogoditshane with (88,098) is now the biggest village in the country with Maun coming second (85,293) and Molepolole at third position with 74,719. Population growth is associated with many economic advantages because more people leads to greater human capital, higher economic growth, economies of scale, the efficiency of higher population density and the improved demographic structure of society, among many others.