Inside the blurry vision of local firms hangs a cloud of uncertainty, Covid-19 disruptions and an obstruction of view into any positive projection with regards to the future of economic activity, a fresh survey by the central bank alludes.
The Business Expectations Survey which focused on the second quarter of 2020 — the time when Botswana was on lockdown and a lot of businesses faced business activity halts and disruptions — says COVID-19 containment measures have negatively affected business operations in the second quarter of 2020.
“The most affected firms are largely in the trade, hotels, restaurants, transport and communications; mining and quarrying; finance and business services, and the construction sectors. In general, firms anticipate that it will take a year from June 2020, for their businesses to recover from the impact of COVID-19,” said Bank of Botswana, presenting gloomy results from a survey on local firms.
According to the Business Expectations Survey, firms are less optimistic about economic activity in the second quarter of 2020 compared to the previous quarter. Businesses also expect a deterioration in all business conditions. According to the survey, access to credit was anticipated to be much tighter in the domestic market compared to other markets.
However, firms expect cost pressures to fall significantly in the third quarter of 2020, reflecting the anticipated reduction in costs of wages, transport, rent and materials, according to the Business Expectations Survey. The research further stated that businesses also expect inflation to remain stable and within the Bank’s medium-term objective range of 3 – 6 percent, in 2020 and 2021.
Firms were also moderate in projection of the general economy according to the central bank survey. While Ministry of Finance and Economic Development projected a larger contraction of 8.9 percent, firms despite their pessimism on business conditions which are expected to recover after a year, saw an overall output to contract marginally by a meagre 0.2 percent. This is also lower than the 3% growth in 2019.
“On quarterly basis, firms expect the GDP to contract in the second quarter of 2020, consistent with the anticipated decline in production, sales, profitability, exports and imports of goods and services and investment in buildings, vehicles and equipment, plant and machinery, and ‘other’ investments,” said Bank of Botswana in their latest survey.
Furthermore, firms with an expectation of the economy to have contracted by 1.1 percent in the second quarter of 2020 contradicts the 3% growth reported by Statistics Botswana for the second quarter of 2019.
Firms envision the hazy performance because of perceptions of lower economic growth in the mining and quarrying, the trade, hotels and restaurants and the transport and communications sectors, as well as the finance and business services sectors between the first and second quarters of 2020.
The mining sector particularly, with its businesses mostly being of exporting market oriented nature, was the most pessimistic of all the sectors about economic growth prospects in the second quarter of 2020 compared to an expected stagnation in the first quarter. According to the survey on firms, there has always been the US-China trade war as an impediment for exports like diamonds before Covid-19 came in the ring to wipe out humanity.
This was symptomized by mostly weaker global demand for Botswana rough diamonds. Even though after national lockdown mining was immediately declared as an essential act, the Business Expectations Survey talked about the interruption of trading due to recent outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic.
“This is followed by the finance and business services sector, which expects poor economic performance consistent with firms’ predicted decline in production and investment during the second quarter of 2020. For the third quarter of 2020, the mining, manufacturing, water and electricity sectors are optimistic about economic performance, while the rest of the sectors are pessimistic.
However, firms across all sectors are optimistic about economic recovery in the twelve-month period to June 2021, led by the mining and quarrying sector,” furthered the survey. The cataract sight suffered by firms under the survey was not all negative, there were glimpses of blurred optimism albeit being hyperopic. A lot of improvement is seen from at the far end which is to June 2021 from June 2020. And according to the Business Expectations Survey, this is in line with the anticipated economic recovery in 2021.
The survey further explains: “Confidence in the domestic market-oriented firms is mainly driven by firms in the manufacturing, water and electricity sectors. Similarly, export market-oriented firms are optimistic about business conditions in the third quarter of 2020 and the year to June 2021. These firms are predominantly in the mining and quarrying business, which is expected to increase output in the third quarter of 2020 and the next 12-month period, as trade conditions improve.”
Firms’ expectations on credit
There has been a worldwide worry that companies might collapse or fail to pay back credit facilities offered to them by banks and lending institutions. However, the central bank has not been fazed by the Non-Performing Loans reported by the banking sector, saying it is a reasonable percentage of the GDP.
In his speech when announcing lockdown, President Mokgweetsi Masisi said to “stabilize businesses” government will “guarantee loans by commercial banks to businesses mostly affected by the pandemic.” Furthermore, the President said, “give eligible businesses affected by Covid-19 access to credit to support operations in conditions where credit becomes more difficult to obtain.”
Last month Bank of Botswana Governor Moses Pelaelo reiterated what Masisi said and encouraged that access to credit would be helpful in the current economic situation. This was after the central bank reduced the Bank rate on April 2020 as one of the monetary response to Covid-19.
According to Business Expectations Survey, firms expect the cost of credit (lending rates) to decrease across all markets, with companies citing the need for affordable credit to stimulate economic activity in the wake of the adverse impact of COVID-19 pandemic, as the main reason. A few other firms based their expectation of lower lending rates on the recent policy rate cut by the Bank, according to the survey.
When looking at borrowing volumes, firms broadly expect an increase in domestic credit, and a reduction in credit from South Africa and elsewhere in the twelve-month period to June 2021, according to the central bank research.
However, firms, domestic and market oriented, perceived access to credit to be tight in the second quarter of 2020. This, according to the banking survey, is despite businesses expecting interest rates to be lower than in the previous quarter. Firms see credit accessibility determined by how the interest rate is, most prefer to borrow when lending rates are lower.
There is another startling discovery by the central bank’s latest survey: “All firms which predominantly target the domestic market, prefer to borrow from the domestic market in 2020 and have no plans to borrow from other markets. Conversely, export-oriented firms prefer to borrow from all markets, with more preference given to the domestic market.”
Health workers are at the front line fighting the deadly, contagious COVID-19. These workers have an immense challenge of welfare and government has since turned a blind eye to dares and crushing odds throttling health officers, particularly nurses.
Botswana Nurses Union (BONU) has once more called on government to invest in the country’s nurses and give the nursing profession dignity.
In May 2020, BONU President, Obonolo Rahube said government should, in line with the advocacy of World Health Organisation (WHO) invest more on nurses and midwives, and further advised government to address challenges that nurses are faced with. The proposal was made on International Nurses Day.
At the time, Rahube urged government to provide subsidised accommodation for nurses and midwives as it has emerged that during the fight against the Corona-virus, accommodation for nurses and midwives is very important. Rahube called on government to provide nurses and midwives with 100% medical cover.
He also called on government to introduce risk allowance for nurses and midwives, noting that as frontline workers during the pandemic, they are at high risk. Nurses also demanded Personal Protective Equipment (PPE), a matter which they lost with costs in court. Also critical during the COVID-19 era for health workers, psychological support is what BONU maintains is still lacking.
In the same year (2020), the Union raised a number of other challenges they are being faced with. These challenges, they asserted, make it testing for them to undertake their duties, especially now that COVID-19 has shaken Botswana’s already weak health system.
BONU expressed disappointment at nurses’ pay, nurses who tested positive for COVID-19 at an alarming rate, violence against nurses, nurses’ contracts which were never renewed and a poorly coordinated vaccination plan for health workers.
Clearly, nurses are not only battling the COVID-19 virus, but also government who has since refused to come to the party.
This week once again, BONU tested waters and slammed government with more demands, some of which have turned into an everyday song while COVID-19 continues to kill more nurses.
At a press conference on Tuesday, BONU President Rahube said over 800 nurses have been infected with COVID-19. Of this number, 34 nurses lost their lives due to COVID-19 related infections.
WHO and other health experts say for countries to emerge victorious from the COVID-19 pandemic, they must fast-track the roll out of vaccine. In Botswana, there is no clear explanations of how the vaccination plan is going.
The situation around vaccination is chaotic, and this is evidenced by only 28% of nurses who have been vaccinated. President Mokgweetsi Masisi is also disturbed by the COVAX programme as Botswana vaccines arrive in the country missing, every time.
Debates in Parliament on which vaccine to adopt are failing to conclude, in fact, they never gained energy. Rahube told members of the media that nurses are overworked.
“Shortage of nurses puts those available at risk. Some nurses are on isolation, quarantine and some passed on. Nurses do both testing and contact tracing so they end up working stretched hours, at times from 6am to 10pm. There is no how nurses will be able to deliver while exhausted,” he said.
He further indicated that infection control practitioners are not recognised and deployed appropriately, and some regions have shortage of commodities and supplies such as water resistant gowns (nurses are forced to re-use those availed), masks, gloves, scrubs and uniforms.
Oxygen supply is said to be in shortage, something that mounts COVID-19 deaths.
“Patients lose their lives whilst still awaiting to be put on oxygen. Psychological services are in serious need as nurses continue to lose their significant others, faced with resource constraints and many of them are not vaccinated,” said Rahube.
Accommodation still remains a huge challenge for nurses. BONU President said nurses overcrowd with families and colleagues.
In Kauxwi, four nurses share a single house, in Moshaweng two nurses share a single bedroomed house together with their families, with no electricity yet the village is powered. In Kazungula, there are only two staff houses for 11 nurses and their families.
The union stressed that the Chief Nursing Officer is not coming to the party, and the expectation is that the office should be coordinating all nursing issues at the Health Ministry. Rahube indicated that transfers have been frozen, promotions stalled and they continue to lose nursing posts to other Ministries.
In a number of recommendations, BONU urged government to consider compensation and risk allowance for staff affected by COVID-19 related deaths and those infected. “COVID-19 has been declared an occupational health illness, in essence, the employer should facilitate its occupational health division, and there are lots of occupational health nurses who are wrongly deployed, who could be running such programs at the facilities.”
In regard to vaccinations, BONU underlined that there should be clear information relating to vaccines and they should be made accessible. “Local franchise manufacturing of vaccine could use Botswana Vaccines Institute (BVI) and government should be clear and transparent concerning procurement of vaccines. It should also allow stakeholders with capacities of procuring vaccines to do so.”
Government is moving swiftly to completely overhaul public procurement — a new Bill has been tabled before Parliament this week by Minister of Finance and Economic Development, Peggy Serame and is scheduled for debate in the coming days of the current parliament sitting.
Through this Bill the country’s purse bearer seeks to dismantle existing public procurement pieces of legislation, transform, merge and form a new public procurement arrangement. The existing public procurement high command base — the Public Procurement and Asset Disposal Board (PPDB) would cease to exist.
This organisation will transition and assume the reigns of a regulator and oversight authority; the actual procurement; floating of tenders, accepting bids, adjudicating and awarding tenders will be fully taken over by Government departments accounting officers.
Accounting officers are Permanent Secretaries and statutory organisation heads and directors or any person who is responsible for the administration and day-to-day management of the affairs of a procuring entity, and any other person, who may be designated as such by the Minister under the act.
Speaking to this Bill this week, Serame revealed that the current Public Procurement and Asset Disposal arrangement will be merged with the local authority’s procurement Act.
“We will now have procurement under one roof, all overseen by accounting officers, it’s all government money coming from one port,” she said.
Minister Serame explained that PPADB will no longer be player and referee at the same time, with a view to improve efficiency and effectiveness in the regulation and management of public procurement processes.
According to Minister Serame, the new public procurement Act will promote competition among suppliers and contractors, and also provide for the fair, equal and equitable treatment of all suppliers and contractors.
PUBLIC PROCUREMENT REGULATORY AUTHORITY
Should parliament pass this bill the current Public Procurement and Asset Disposal Board (PPADB) will transition into a new body called Public Procurement Regulatory Authority.
The new Authority will be mandated with setting standards and practices for the public procurement system, regulate and control the public procurement system, ensure the application of fair, equitable, competitive, transparent, accountable, efficient, non-discriminatory, honest, value for money and public confidence in procurement standards and practices.
Furthermore the Authority will monitor and enforce compliance with the new Act and any relevant law by a procuring entity.
For standardization and ensuring of world class procurement best practices the Public Procurement Regulatory Authority will monitor, assess, review and report on the performance of the public procurement system to the Minister and advise on desirable changes, and further issue standardized bidding documents to all procuring entities
This oversight and procurement regulator will conduct periodic inspections of the records and proceedings of a procuring entity to ensure compliance with the Act.
The regulator will institute periodically, in respect of any procurement —a procurement audit during a tender process, a contract audit in the course of execution of an awarded tender, a performance audit after the completion of a contract, and an investigation at any stage of a procurement process.
The Authority will continue to keep and maintain an up-to-date register of contractors, known as the “Contractors’ Register”, in works, services and supplies, or any combination thereof, however classified.
The new Public Procurement Regulatory Authority will be governed by a board of nine (9) non-executive directors appointed by the Minister of Finance and Economic Development.
The Public Procurement Board will be charged with directing the affairs of the Authority. Day to day executive activities of the Public Procurement Authority will be run by a Chief Executive Officer who will be appointed by the Minister on the recommendation of the board.
PROCURING ENTITIES AND ACCOUNTING OFFICERS
The actual procurement will now be handled by the Accounting Officers who will lead their procuring entities. The entities will consist of the procurement oversight unit, a procurement unit, an ad hoc Evaluation Committee, the user Department; or any other appropriate structure put in place by the Government.
The Accounting Officer will be in charge of establishment of appropriate procurement structures to undertake the procurement functions under the new act, which shall be staffed at an appropriate level in line with the model structure issued by the Public Procurement Regulatory Authority.
The Accounting Officer will also be charged with establishment, as may be prescribed, of a committee within a procuring entity which will oversee procurement activities, establishment, as may be prescribed, of an oversight committee to monitor procurement activities in a procuring entity.
The primary role of the Accounting Officers will be adjudication and award of tenders, including the adjudication of a bid recommendation submitted to him/her through a procurement oversight unit.
The Accounting officer will have powers to cancel a tender process and reject a tender offer at any time prior to entering into a contract, in the manner as may be prescribed, and the Accounting Officer shall not compensate the bidder of a tender that has been cancelled.
Under this proposed Act new set of regulations and guidelines will direct procurement complaints and appeals.
COMPLAINTS & TENDER DISPUTES
A procuring entity will, after the publication of an award decision — allow a cooling-off period of 10 days in order for the procuring entity to receive and address complaints, if any, from any contractor who is aggrieved by the award decision; and not enter into a contract relating to the award before the expiration of a cooling period.
A contractor who is aggrieved by a breach of any provision of this Act or claims to have suffered or is likely to suffer loss or damages due to a breach of a duty imposed on a procuring entity shall, at the first instance, lodge a complaint before an Accounting Officer for review.
A contractor who lodges a complaint shall have the right to participate in the review proceedings before an Accounting Officer. A contractor who fails to participate in the review proceedings shall be barred from subsequently lodging the same complaint.
Under this proposed Act an Accounting Officer will not entertain a complaint after a contract has entered into force. After considering a complaint and determining that the complaint is a frivolous or vexatious complaint, Accounting Officer shall dismiss such complaint.
Notwithstanding subsection (1), an Accounting Officer may refer a complaint considered and determined to be frivolous or vexatious to the Tribunal for the Tribunal to take any appropriate action as may be prescribed.
An aggrieved person shall submit his or her complaint in writing to an Accounting Officer within 10 days from the date of the publication of an award decision by the Accounting Officer, relating to the complaint.
The Accounting Officer will not entertain a complaint unless it is submitted to him/her within the period referred to under subsection.
A contractor who is aggrieved by a decision of an Accounting Officer may appeal to the Tribunal within 14 days from the date of the decision of the Accounting Officer.
Where a contract has been concluded by a procuring entity, based on an award decision of an Accounting Officer, the contract shall be irrevocable and its execution shall proceed without interruption whether the award decision by the Accounting Officer may in itself remain disputable by a contractor through the Tribunal.
Notwithstanding subsection (5), the Tribunal may suspend and subsequently revoke or terminate the execution of a contract if in the opinion of the Tribunal, sufficient evidence has been adduced to demonstrate that the execution of the contract may cause substantial loss to the public revenue or prejudicially affect public interest.
A complainant who wishes to lodge a complaint shall exhaust the dispute resolution processes provided in this Act before the complainant refers the complaint to a court.
PUBLIC PROCUREMENT TRIBUNAL
The Tribunal will be a body established independently from Public Procurement Regulatory Authority, and shall constitute retired High Court judges or practicing attorneys who qualify to appoint high court judge.
The Tribunal shall adjudicate over any matter brought before it by a complainant for a breach of any of the provisions of this Act, or any appeal brought in accordance with the provisions of this Act.
The COVID-19 pandemic which weakened world economies had left a devastating impact on Botswana Investment and Trade Centre (BITC) existence in 2020. According to the group’s 2019/2020 Annual Report, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) was sluggish for the first two quarters at P126 million and P426.96 million respectively. They then took an upward trajectory in Q3 and 4 at P1396 million and P1456 million respectively.
The year closed with a reduced performance at 73% for Q4. According to the financial report, export earnings opened the year at 83% which is approximately P671 million, before dropping to 81% (P1299.55 million). However, Quarter 3 experienced a slight rise in performance to 82%, or P1978.42 million before a drop in performance to close Quarter 4 at P74.9%, which was P2403.91 million.
Even if that is the case, the Centre continued to promote local investors by facilitating for local entrepreneurs to produce and find markets for their products both locally and internationally. The trend for Domestic Investment/Expansions indicated a continual upward performance surge from Quarter 1 through Quarter 4.
In percentage points, performance results reflected opening of 93% performance followed by a dip in performance to 82% Quarter 2, and then an increase to 100% in Quarter 3 and closing performance of 84.2% in Quarter 4.
For this financial year under review, BITC posted solid financial results with a surplus of P872.968, representing a decline from the previous year’s surplus of P13.991.337. The Centre started on track from the beginning of the financial year with successful execution of activities planned for the year.
However, following the subsequent onset of COVID-19 in the last quarter for the financial year, a few of the activities were negatively affected resulting from restricted cross border transfers. The impact is expected to be severe in the following financial year, especially on the Centre’s financial statements, clearly reflecting the negative impact of COVID-19.
In the financial year ended March 2020, BITC received a total subvention of P96.504.860 which represents a 5% decrease from the previous year’s subvention of P101.830.560. the Grant subvention received for the past 5 years has not been constant due to the financial constraints that the government has experienced over the years which prompted for alignment of financial resources to cover the Centre’s strategic imperatives.
For the year under review BITC’s annual FDI capital inflows realised stood at P1.456 billion against an annual target of P2 billion, which is largely attributable to more than expected performance from the Financial Services sector. The total Domestic Investment for the period was P875.5 million against the set stretched target of P952 million. The total number of jobs registered by the organisation during the year under review was 3329, against an annual target of 3340.
Notwithstanding that, BITC realised high level achievements for the year under review. Chief Executive Officer Keletsositse Olebile said facilitated to establish the Selibe-Phikwe citrus project, which has a job creation expectation of 1000 vacancies as well as the expansion of Kromberg and Shubert Company through the allocation of land for construction of 7000 square metres factory to manufacture wire harness for Mercedes Benz, with over 800 jobs expected this year.
Further, the Centre continued to deliver improved investor facilitation services to both local and foreign investors through the Botswana one Stop service centre (BOSSC). “BOSSC houses relevant government departments under one roof to provide prompt, efficient and transparent services to investors. The services offered by this Centre have grown from slightly above 130 applications for government authorisation in 2013 to 752 in the year under review,” said Olebile.
BITC continued to monitor Botswana’s performance in global competitiveness indicators such as the World Bank’s ease of Doing Business Index. “In an endeavour to improve the investor facilitation mechanism in the country, we have motivated for the drafting of a Business Facilitation Law, which will expedite the setting up and operations of businesses in Botswana.”
ECONOMIC DIVERSIFICATION DRIVE
BITC continued to respond to government’s call to stimulate direct investment and growth of local companies by procuring goods and services from locally based manufactures and services providers. The message to promote locals to actively grow the national economy has been driven through campaigns such as ‘PushaBW’ which utilised an Integrated Marketing Communications (IMC) approach. As at March 2020, local purchases constituted 84% (2019:85%) of the total procurement with foreign purchases at 16% (2019:15%).