The fuel crisis which struck Botswana beginning of July as a result of supply chain disruptions has exposed the country’s vulnerability, lack of preparedness to unforeseen circumstances and weak petroleum supply security base.
Due to COVID-19 pandemic, when countries went on lockdown, fuel demand dropped to record low levels, making it uneconomical to operate refineries. In South Africa where Botswana imports bulk of its fuel, refineries significantly curtailed production, while some completely shut as demand lowered close to zero levels, the likes of which the industry has never experienced before.
A month later as countries went out of lockdown and lifted extreme social distancing regulations to reopen ailing economies, the industry was confronted with instant hike in demand, outpacing output from refineries and suffocating the supply chain.
Unrests around truck driver’s issues in South Africa as well as COVID-19 requirements at Botswana points of entry further exacerbated the situation leaving country in unprecedented fuel crisis, characterized by panic buying, stock piling and counterproductive long queues.
As the crisis escalated it emerged that Botswana‘s strategic fuel storage can only cover 5 days and a maximum of about 15 days in the event of completely zero supply. This then pushed the country to zoom into mega strategic fuel reserve projects which according to initial plans should have been completed 3 years ago in 2017.
Appearing before Parliament Accounts Committee (PAC) late last week, Meshack Tshekedi, Chief Executive Officer of Botswana Oil Limited, told Lawmakers that all projects to expand Botswana’s strategic fuel reserves are currently on hold.
Botswana Oil is a wholly state owned company established to ensure the security and efficiency of supply of petroleum products for Botswana, manage state owned strategic fuel reserve facilities, strategic stocks as well as bulk storage and distribution.
TSHELE FUEL STORAGE PROJECT
Initially planned for completion in 2017, funded from fiscals, the 3.4 billion Pula project according Botswana Oil CEO has since been put on hold owing to constrained national coffers. Meshack Tshekedi told PAC that government has since decided to rope in the private sector into funding the project through a Public Private Partnership (PP) model.
The Tshele hill strategic fuel reserve project was conceived in 2012 to ensure fuel security in the country. Initially P3.4 billion was estimated for the project which included the funds for the first purchase of strategic storage, with P1.7 billion estimated for the actual construction of the facility.
The project was initially developed by the Department of Energy in the Ministry of Mineral Resources, Green Technology & Energy Security fully funded in phases from government budget. Tshekedi revealed that so far phase one of the project has been completed at around P630 million. These entails rail spar, access road, electricity and water infrastructure as well as bulk of the earth works.
The remaining work entails civil works which involve putting up the tank farm and erecting the tanks, as well as shipping in the product which will be about 160 million liters of fuel. Botswana Oil Chief further revealed that because of pressure on Government fiscus, Cabinet decided to move the project from Department of Energy to Botswana Oil Limited for the latter to take over responsibility of engaging the private sector and manage completion of the project.
“We are in the process of procuring and engaging a transactional advisor, who would facilitate and structure the project and define how the private sector would come on board, we are at the tail end of this process and the selected consultant will soon get to work,” said Meshack Tshekedi.
When completed the Tshele storage facility would add a further 49 days cover to Botswana’s current 15 days stock holding cover. The current storage which is a total of 55 million litres is held at the Gaborone and Francistown depots.
“Because we are engaging the private sector at brownfield stage as compared to green field, it was important to engage and seek the services of a transactional advisor so that we can protect and transfer the significant amount of work already undertaken by government into equity and actually quantify and define how the private sector would come to play,” explained Tshekedi.
The Botswana Oil Head further revealed that the Tshele project is expected to be completed in 18 -24 months. “We already have significant expression of interest from the private sector, showing interest in the PPP, so the transactional advisor once they begin the work is expected to be done in 4-5 months then we are good to go, of which we expect the whole project to be completed in about 2 years from thereafter.”
GHANTSI STORAGE FACILITY & EXPANSION OF FRANCISTOWN DEPOT
The Parliament Public Accounts Committie was also briefed on the Ghantsi and Francistown fuel reserve projects. Meshack Tshekedi shared that there was a project conceived to expand the Francistown 30 million liters depot by additional 60 million liters storage capacity.
He said the project has also been put on hold due lack of funding because constrained government budget. “The Ministry is currently reviewing the project to see how best we can go forward form here; available options are also around the possibility of a PPP model or any other funding mechanism that can be explored.”
For the Ghantsi project, a total of 30 million liters storage capacity is envisaged. Meshack Tshekedi revealed that so far land has been identified and the area has been fenced and Environmental Impact Assessment is completed while government is exploring ways of funding the projects.
Member of Parliament for Nata Gweta, Polson Majaga who was chairing the proceedings of the day however suggested that Government move swiftly to complete the Tshele Project on full government funding noting that the country’s lack of preparedness is a ticking time bomb.
“The way things are coming up and how supply chains are unpredictable these days we could wake up any day and find ourselves with no fuel to even move ambulances, essential services and other critical activities, why can’t we find money from government and complete the Tshele project then engage private sector on other projects,” said Majaga.
According to World Bank & International Monetary Fund (IMF) recommendations, a landlocked non producer country should have at least 90 days cover in strategic fuel reserves.
Government‘s envisaged storage expansion with these upcoming projects is however still short of the recommended cover. Meshack Tshekedi however noted that plans were also underway to acquire or build coastal storage facilities in Namibia, South African and Mozambique.
The partnership between Debswana and Botswana Oil Limited (BOL) which was announced a fortnight ago will create under 100 direct jobs, and scores of job opportunities for citizens in the value chain activities.
In a major milestone, Debswana and BOL jointly announced that the fuel supply to Debswana, which was in the past serviced by foreign companies, will now be reserved for citizen companies. The total value of the project is P8 billion, spanning a period of five years.
“About 88 direct jobs will be created through the partnership. These include some jobs which will be transferred from the current supplier to the new partnership,” Matida Mmipi, Head of Stakeholder Relations at Botswana Oil, told BusinessPost.
“We believe this partnership will become a blueprint for other citizen initiatives, even in other sectors of the economy. Furthermore, this partnership has succeeded in unlocking opportunities that never existed for ordinary citizens who aspire to grow and do business with big companies like Debswana.”
Mmipi said through this partnership, BOL and Debswana intend to impact citizen owned companies in the fuel supply value chain that include transportation, supply, facilities maintenance, engineering, customs clearance, trucks stops and its support activities such as workshop / maintenance, tyre services, truck wash bays among others.
“The number of companies to be on-boarded will be determined by the economics at the time of engagement,” she said. BOL will play a facilitatory role of handholding and assisting emerging citizen-owned fuel supply and fuel transportation companies to supply Debswana’s Jwaneng and Orapa Letlhakane Damtshaa (OLDM) mines with diesel and petrol for their operations.
“BOL expects to increase citizen companies’ market share in the fuel supply and transportation industries, which have over the years been dominated by foreign-owned suppliers. Consequently, the agreement will also ensure security of supply for Debswana operations, which are a mainstay of the Botswana economy,” Mmipi said.
“Furthermore, BOL will, under this agreement, transfer skills to citizen suppliers and transporters during the contract period and ensure delivery of competent and skilled citizen suppliers and transport companies upon completion of the agreement.”
Mmipi said the capacitating by BOL is limited to providing citizen companies oil industry technical capability and capacity to deliver on the requirements of the contract, when asked on helping citizen companies to access funding.
“BOL’s mandate does not include financing citizen empowerment initiatives. Securing funding will remain the responsibility of the beneficiaries. This could be through government financing entities including CEDA or through commercial banks. Further to this, there are financial institutions that have already signed up to support the Debswana Citizen Economic Empowerment Programme (CEEP),” Mmipi indicated.
While BOL is established by government as company limited by guarantee, it will not benefit financially from the partnership with Debswana, as citizen empowerment in the petroleum value chain is core to BOL’s mandate.
“BOL does not pursue citizen facilitation for financial benefit, but rather we engage in citizen facilitation as a social aspect of our mandate. Citizen facilitation comes at a cost, but it is the right thing to do for the country to develop the oil and gas industry,” she said.
Mmipi said supplying fuel to Debswana comes with commercial benefits such as supply margins. These have traditionally been made outside the country when supply was done by multi-nationals for a period spanning over 50 years. With BOL anchoring supply for Debswana, this benefit will accrue locally, and BOL will be able to pay taxes and dividends to the shareholders in Botswana.
PwC Africa has presented the eighth edition of the VAT in Africa Guide – Africa re-emerging. This backdrop of renewal informs on the re-emergence of African economies and societies which have been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic.
In this edition, which has been compiled by PwC Africa’s indirect tax experts, covers a total of 41 African countries. It is geared towards sharing insight with our clients based on the constantly changing tax environments that can have a significant impact on business operations.
Within Africa, governments continue to focus on expanding the tax net by improving revenue collection through efficient compliance systems and procedures. PwC Africa has observed that revenue authorities also continue to take a keen interest in indirect taxes as part of revenue mobilisation initiatives.
Maturing VAT system and upskilling SARS
“In South Africa, VAT is becoming more relevant as a revenue source for the government,” says Matthew Besanko, PwC South Africa’s Indirect Tax Leader. “Strides have been made to upskill South African Revenue Service (SARS) staff and identify VAT revenue leakages, particularly in respect of foreign suppliers of electronic services to people and businesses in South Africa.”
Broadening the tax base and digital economy
In the past year, South Africa, Mozambique and Zimbabwe saw updates to their VAT legislation, or introduced specific legislation targeting electronically supplied services (ESS), which is in line with the global trend of attempting to tax the digital economy. “The expectation is that Botswana will also introduce VAT legislation in due course, while the National Treasury in South Africa has also made mention of revising the rules to account for further developments in the digital economy,” Besanko says.
South Africa’s National Treasury has also drafted legislation with the intention to introduce a reverse charge on gold, which is expected to come into effect later in 2022. While in Zimbabwe, revenue authorities have introduced a tax on the export of raw medicinal cannabis ranging between 10% and 20%, which came into effect on 1 January 2021.
ESG and carbon tax
Key strides have also been made within the Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) space. “ESG leadership, strategising and reporting is essential now for organisations that wish to flourish and remain relevant,” Kabochi says. He adds that companies need to consider how ESG and tax intersect, since tax is a significant value driver when businesses need to deliver on their ESG goals.
In South Africa, a carbon tax regime, which is being implemented in three phases, has been adopted. The second phase was scheduled to start in January 2023, however phase one was extended by three years until 31 December 2025.
Until then, taxpayers will enjoy substantial tax-free allowances which reduce their carbon tax liability. At the beginning of 2022, the South African government increased the carbon tax rate to R144 (about US$9), which is expected to increase annually to enable South Africa to uphold its COP26 commitments.
With effect from 1 January 2023, carbon tax payers in South Africa will also be required to submit carbon budgets and adhere to the provisions of the carbon budgeting system which will be governed by the Climate Change Bill. Where set carbon budgets are exceeded, the government plans to impose penalties. “At PwC, we are continuously focused on our renewed global strategy, ” The New Equation,” Kabochi says. “Through this strategy, a key focus area for PwC Africa is to support clients in adding value to their ESG ambitions and building trust through sustained outcomes.”
The New Equation is also an acknowledgement of the fundamental changes in the business environment in which PwC’s clients and other stakeholders operate. PwC continues to reinvent and adapt to these changes as a community of problem solvers, combining knowledge and human-led technology to deliver quality services and value.
Local and international economists have lowered their projections on Botswana’s economic growth for 2022 and 2023, saying the country is highly likely to fail to maintain high growth rate recorded in 2021 hence will not reach initial forecasts.
Economists this week lowered 2022 forecasts for Botswana’s economic growth rate, from the initial 5.3% to 4.8% and added that in 2023 growth could further decline to 4.0%. The lower projections come on the backdrop of an annual economic growth that recovered sharply in 2021 with figures showing that year-on-year real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth increased to 11.4%, up from a contraction of 8.7% in 2020.
Economists from the local research entity, E-consult, this week stated that the 2021 double digit growth that exceeded projections made at the time of the 2022 budget may be short lived due to other developments taking place in the global economy. E-consult Economist Sethunya Kegakgametse stated that the war in Ukraine has worsened supply problems in the global economy and added that before the war, macroeconomic indicators were seen as improving and returning to pre-COVID levels.
According to the economist the global economy was projected to improve in 2022 and 2023. Recent figures show that global growth projections have been revised downwards from the initial forecast of 4.9% in 2022 with the World Bank’s new estimate for global growth in 2022 at 3.2%.
The statistics also shows that International Monetary Fund revised their growth projections for 2022 and 2023 down by 0.8% and 0.2% respectively, falling to 3.6% for both years. “The outbreak of war has severely dampened the global recovery that was under way following the COVID-19 pandemic,” said the economist.
She stated that despite Botswana being geographically removed from the conflict, the country has not and will not be exempt from the disruptions in the global economy. “The disruptions to global supply chains resulting from the war will have a negative effect on both Botswana’s growth and trade activities.
The economic sanctions against diamonds from Russia will add uncertainty to the market which will have knock on effects to Botswana’s growth, exports, and government revenues,” said the economists who added that the disruptions are driving prices up and result with very high inflation in the local economy.
Kegakgametse projected that in an attempt to limit inflation Bank of Botswana will be forced to raise interest rate “Should the sharp increase in both global and local inflation persist, Bank of Botswana much like other central banks around the world will be forced to raise interest rates in a bid to control rising prices. This would mean an end to the expansionary monetary policy stance that had been adopted post COVID-19 to aid economic growth,” she said.
In the latest projections, the UK based economic research entity Fitch Solutions lowered 2022 real GDP growth forecast for Botswana from 5.3% to 4.8% “In 2023, we see economic growth rate decelerating to 4.0%,” said Fitch Solutions economists who also noted that the 2022 and 2023 economic growth projections may come out lower than the current forecasts, as it is possible that new vaccine-resistant virus variants may be identified, which could result in the re-implementation of restrictions. “In such circumstances, we cannot rule out that Botswana’s economy may post weaker growth than our baseline scenario currently assumes,” said the economists.
According to the projections, Fitch Solution stated that there is limited scope for Botswana government to increase diamond production and exports, following the economic sanctions imposed on Russian diamond mining companies operating in Botswana. The research entity added that De Beers is unlikely to scale up diamond output from Botswana in order to prop up diamond prices.