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Parley, Covid-19 and the Economy

There is no doubt that Corona Virus pandemic has shattered Botswana’s fragile economy. Warnings about the brittleness of the economy and its susceptibility to external shocks have been contemptuously dismissed as political posturing.

The economy, throughout its trajectory post-independence, has been vulnerable to external shocks primarily because its mainstay has been mineral generated revenue, particularly diamonds. Botswana’s growth has been awe-inspiringly strong and stable over an extended period.

The country was for a long time tapped on the back for its ostensible prudent management of economic resources, liberal policies and low levels of corruption. Many laudatory labels such as ‘Exceptional’, ‘African Miracle’, ‘Africa’s Success Story’, and ‘prosperity’ have been used by various observers of the political economy of Botswana.

However, it is becoming increasingly clear to many, as it has been to a few in the past, that there was lack of clear vision to shape the economic order in a way that would generate wealth, sustain steadiness, diversify to other key sectors such as services and manufacturing and enrich citizens.

The country has deplorable levels of poverty, unemployment and underemployment, wealth and income inequalities as well as economically disempowered black African or native Batswana. Access to essential services such water, sanitation and electricity is still a huge challenge for many parts of the country.

According to the recent World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness Report, Botswana ranks number 113 out of 141 countries on Public Sector Performance. It ranks 130 on e-participation and it is at position108 infrastructure.

The country is measured at number 103 on transport infrastructure and fares badly on quality of land administration at position 103, airport connectivity at 130, utility infrastructure 110, electricity access as a percentage of population at 118 and 107 on reliability of water supply. This makes it an unfavourable destination for Foreign Direct Investment and a not conducive place to do business.

There is an apparent skewed development. The economy remains in firm control and ownership of non-African or native Batswana, that is foreigners and naturalized citizens. The phenomenon’s extent, historical foundation and enablers has not been subjected to extensive studies.

There are questions on how COVID 19 has affected the economy and what can Parliament do. Batswana are asking themselves about developmental issues which Parliament will grapple with when it resumes and whether Parliament can really do anything at all.

They wonder if it can it deter the executive from bad and less value-adding priorities. They are worried about the future which looks gloomier by the day.

Botswana achieved an estimated growth of 4.5% in 2018, growth which is assumed to have decelerated to 3.5% in 2019 in part due to the effects of weakened global demand for diamonds alongside other factors. According to the World Bank, the global slowdown in demand and increased trade restrictions in light of the COVID-19 global pandemic is expected to have a profound and lethal impact on Botswana’s economy, particularly on the diamond industry and tourism.

This has been acknowledged by the country’s economic high command and other observers. The diamond sector has been a vital driver of growth; it has been the sole largest contributor to government revenues and accounting 80% of export earnings.  The GDP was estimated to have contracted by 50% in April.

International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicted a decline of 3.0 percent in global GDP in 2020, and a contraction of 6.1 percent in the GDP of advanced economies.

Botswana, the IMF World Economic Outlook projects, may have its GDP plummet by 5.4 percent in 2020. The expected reduction in activity is estimated to result in a 1.2% growth contraction in 2020. The effects on the ordinary people are dire.

A new workable growth model focusing on export diversification strategy has been elusive even during the time when an economist was leading the country. Corona virus has shown Batswana what those who called for energy self-sufficiency in the past really meant.

About 48% of power is imported from other countries who must first meet their domestic demands. Electricity has become prohibitively exorbitant and unreliable. Fuel shortages have engulfed the country. Water is expensive and the billing system has become another impoverishing scam by the government owned water enterprise.

Whereas it is gnashing of teeth for the downtrodden, it is unprecedented bonanza for the affluent and well connected political and business elites; their corruption, fiscal and revenue crimes and unethical dealings oozes a nauseating pungent musty smell.

Many Batswana have lost their jobs and their sources of livelihoods. Some have lost their wages even though they are said to be employed. The informal sector has been hard hit. Workers are exploited under the guise of COVID 19. Public servants have been robbed, as it is usually the case. Labour disputes are have become a permanent feature of the industrial relations.

When Parliament adjourned to focus on fighting COVID 19, it had a very important subject on its almanac. National Development Plan (NDP) Mid-term Review discussion. Parliament has adopted eleven NDPs since independence. Half-way through, these are reviewed in accordance with available resources and new pressing demands. So, NDP can be changed at the point of midterm review.

The review serves as a monitoring and evaluation process of the implementation of the plan. What is working and what is failing. It answers the political question that is the very essence of politics; who gets what, where, how and when in the remaining years of the plan.

So, a lot has happened during the corona pandemic. The European Union has placed Botswana in a financial quagmire by backlisting it and the credit ratings are also not very favourable. The reserves are at risk and so are other offshore investments. Revenue has undoubtedly declined.

So, the executive will want the next meeting of the House to prioritize Government Business. The Government will most likely be uncompromising and steadfast on its proposals. The President and his Cabinet will expect MPs to ‘understand’ that the economy has been devastated by the corona virus pandemic.

MPs would be expected to forget about and forfeit certain key projects in their constituencies. The ruling party caucus will be instructed to toe the line. The Ministry of Finance and Economic Development might be working on a revised NDP Midterm Review for discussion and approval by Parliament. A “recovery plan” has been circulated and MPs are going to be expected to approve it without their initiated amendments.

Parliament has never rejected any NDP and has rarely altered it. Alterations have come because the Executive would have decided. The institution is inferior in terms of resources and experts to advise it to mount any serious case. It doesn’t have staff or advisors that Finance Ministry has or Government has access to.

It can engage experts to workshop it but not to advise it on the budget or NDP related matters. Parliament doesn’t have a budget office. It is almost helpless in matching the executive.

However, MPs can still make noise on things that the executive has planned but are of no value addition to the economy. Experts or no experts, MPs should be able to discern a deceptive paper tabled by the executive. They should be able to tell when some things can’t work.

They have done so in the past, albeit with no serious results apart from sensitizing the populace. They should speak truth to power. Misplaced priorities must be rejected by Parliament. Precedence must be given to jobs or wealth generating projects and plans.

Programs aimed at buying votes but not necessarily adding value should be outrightly rejected by MPs.  Useless and wasteful expenditure must be stopped. Parliament must frankly and critically evaluate the recovery strategy to see if indeed it’s just rhetoric or serious stimulation of the economy.

MPs represent the people and it is important that they speak the common man’s language and try to translate these people’s aspirations into public policy in the form of a recovery plan or revised NDP. Batswana citizens owned firms should be saved and jobs protected or created.

How the country moves forward after COVID 19 scourge should be shaped by the next meeting of the legislature. Until Parliament attains its true full independence, there is little it can do. It will remain a talk show or a rubberstamp of the ruling party and executive decisions.

The NDP Midterm Review and the supposed Recovery Plan are likely to be passed without any meaningful additions of subtractions by MPs.

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Technology saves Lions from angry Okavango villagers

22nd November 2022

Villagers in the eastern Okavango region are now using an alert system which warns them when collared lions approach livestock areas. The new technology is now regarded as a panacea to the human/wildlife conflict in the area as it has reduced mass poisoning and killing of lions by farmers.

The technology is being implemented by an NGO, Community Living Among Wildlife Sustainably (CLAWS) within the five villages of Seronga, Gunutsoga, Eretsha, Beetsha and Gudigwa in the eastern part of the Okavango delta.

A Carnivore Ecologist from CLAWS, Dr Andrew Stein explained that around 2013, villagers in the eastern Okavango were having significant problems with losses of their cattle to predators specifically lions, so the villagers resorted to using poison and shooting the lions in order to reduce their numbers.

He highlighted that as a form of progressive intervention, they designed a programme to reduce the conflicts and promote coexistence. Another component of the programme is communal herding, introduced in 2018 to reduce the conflict by increasing efficiency whereby certified herders monitor livestock health and protect them from predators, allowing community members to engage in other livelihood activities knowing that their livestock are safe.

They are now two herds with 600 and 230 cattle respectively with plan to expand the programme to other neighbouring villages. Currently the programme is being piloted in Eretsha, one of the areas with most conflict incidences per year.

Dr Stein explained that they have developed the first of its kind alert system whereby when the lions get within three or five kilometers of a cattllepost or a homestead upon the five villages, then it will release an alert system going directly to the cellphones of individuals living within the affected area or community.

‘So, if a colored lion gets to about five kilometers of Eretsha village or any villagers in the Eretsha that has signed up for, the system will receive an SMS of the name of the lion and its distance to or from the village”, he stated. He added that this enables villagers to take preventative action to reduce conflicts before its starts.

Dr Stein noted that some respond by gathering their cattle and put them in a kraal or put them in an enclosure making sure that the enclosure is secure while some people will gather firewood and light small fires around edges of the kraal to prevent lions from coming closer and some when they receive the SMS they send their livestock to the neighbours alerting them about the presence of lions.

He noted that 125 people have signed to receive the alert system within Seronga, Eretsha, Beetsha, Gunutsoga and Gudigwa. He added that each homestead is about five people and this means more than 600 people immediately receive the messages about lions when they approach their villages. He also noted that last year they dispersed over 12 000 alerts, adding that this year is a bit higher as about 20 000 alerts have been sent so far across these villages.

Stein further noted that they have been significant changes in the behavior of the villagers as they are now tolerant to lions. “85 percent were happy with the SMS and people are becoming more tolerant with living with lions because they have more information to reduce the conflicts,” he stressed.

Stein noted that since the start of the programme in 2014 they have seen lion populations rebounds almost completely to a level before and they have not recorded cases of lion poisoning in the last three years which is commendable effort.

Monnaleso Sanga from Eretsha village applauded the programme by CLAWS noting that farmers in the area are benefiting through the alert system and take preventative measures to reduce human/lion conflict which has been persistent in the area. He added that numbers of cattle killed by lions have reduced immensely. He also admitted that they are now tolerant to lions and they no longer kill nor poison them.

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THE IDEAL QUALITY OF A MUSLIM

8th September 2022

A Muslim is supposed to be and should be a living example of the teachings of the Quran and the ‘Sunnah’ (the teachings and living examples of Prophet Muhammed (SAW – Peace be upon Him). We should follow these in all affairs, relations, and situations – starting with our relationship with our Lord, our own self, our family and the people around us. One of the distinguishing features of the (ideal) Muslim is his faith in Allah, and his conviction that whatever happens in the universe and whatever befalls him, only happens through the will and the decree of the Almighty Allah.

A Muslim should know and feel that he is in constant need of the help and support of Allah, no matter how much he may think he can do for himself. He has no choice in his life but to submit to the will of his Creator, worship Him, strive towards the Right Path and do good deeds. This will guide him to be righteous and upright in all his deeds, both in public and in private.

His attitude towards his body, mind and soul

The Muslim pays attention to his body’s physical, intellectual and spiritual needs. He takes good care of his body, promoting its good health and strength. He shouldn’t eat in excess; but he should eat enough to maintain his health and energy. Allah, The Exalted, Says “…Eat and drink; but waste not by excess, for Allah loves not the wasters.” [Quran 7: 31]

The Muslim should keep away from alcohol and drugs. He should also try to exercise regularly to maintain his physical fitness. The Muslim also keeps his body and clothes clean, he bathes frequently. The Prophet placed a great emphasis on cleanliness and bathing. A Muslim is also concerned with his clothing and appearance but in accordance with the Islamic ideal of moderation, avoiding the extremes.

As for his intellectual care, the Muslim should take care of his mind by pursuing beneficial knowledge. It is his responsibility to seek knowledge whether it is religious or secular, so he may understand the nature and the essence of things. Allah Says: “…and say: My Lord! Increase me in knowledge.” [Quran 20: 114

The Muslim should not forget that man is not only composed of a body and a mind, but that he also possesses a soul and a spirit. Therefore, the Muslim pays as much attention to his spiritual development as to his physical and intellectual development, in a balanced manner which ideally does not concentrate on one aspect to the detriment of others.

His attitude towards people

The Muslim must treat his parents with kindness and respect, compassion, politeness and deep gratitude. He recognizes their status and knows his duties towards them. Allah Says “And serve Allah. Ascribe nothing as partner unto Him. (Show) kindness unto parents…” [Quran 4: 36]

With his wife, the Muslim should exemplify good and kind treatment, intelligent handling, deep understanding of the nature and psychology of women, and proper fulfilment of his responsibilities and duties.

With his children, the Muslim is a parent who should understand his responsibility towards their good upbringing, showing them love and compassion, influence their Islamic development and giving them proper education, so that they become active and constructive elements in society, and a source of goodness for their parents, community, and society as a whole.

With his relatives, the Muslim maintains the ties of kinship and knows his duties towards them. He understands the high status given to relatives in Islam, which makes him keep in touch with them, no matter what the circumstances.

 

With his neighbours, the Muslim illustrates good treatment, kindness and consideration of others’ feelings and sensitivities. He turns a blind eye to his neighbour’s faults while taking care not to commit any such errors himself. The Muslim relationship with his wider circle of friends is based on love for the sake of Allah. He is loyal and does not betray them; he is sincere and does not cheat them; he is gentle, tolerant and forgiving; he is generous and he supplicates for them.

In his social relationships with all people, the Muslim should be well-mannered, modest and not arrogant. He should not envy others, fulfils his promises and is cheerful. He is patient and avoids slandering and uttering obscenities. He should not unjustly accuse others nor should he interfere in that which does not concern him. He refrains from gossiping, spreading slander and stirring up trouble – avoids false speech and suspicion. When he is entrusted with a secret, he keeps it. He respects his elders. He mixes with the best of people. He strives to reconcile between the Muslims. He visits the sick and attends funerals. He returns favours and is grateful for them. He calls others to Islam with wisdom, example and beautiful preaching. He should guide people to do good and always make things easy and not difficult.

The Muslim should be fair in his judgments, not a hypocrite, a sycophant or a show-off. He should not boast about his deeds and achievements. He should be straightforward and never devious or twisted, no matter the circumstances. He should be generous and not remind others of his gifts or favours. Wherever possible he relieves the burden of the debtor. He should be proud and not think of begging.

These are the standards by which the (ideal) Muslim is expected to structure his life on. Now how do I measure up and fit into all this? Can I honestly say that I really try to live by these ideals and principles; if not can I really call myself a true Muslim?

For the ease of writing this article I have made use of for want of a better word, the generic term ‘he’, ‘his’, ‘him’ and the ‘male’ gender, but it goes without saying that these standards apply equally to every female and male Muslim.

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OUR BELOVED CHILDREN

29th August 2022

“Homicide and suicide kill almost 7000 children every year; one in four of all children are born to unmarried mothers, many of whom are children themselves…..children’s potential lost to spirit crushing poverty….children’s hearts lost in divorce and custody battles….children’s lives lost to abuse and violence, our society lost to itself, as we fail our children.” “If you bungle raising your children, I don’t think whatever else you do matters very much.” (Quotation taken from a book written by Hillary Clinton).

These words may well apply to us here in Botswana; We are also experiencing a series of challenges in many spheres of development and endeavour but none as challenging as the long term effects of what is going to happen to our youth of today. One of the greatest challenges facing us as parents today is how to guide our youth to become the responsible adults that we wish them to be, tomorrow.

In Islam Prophet Muhammad (PBUH) has enjoined upon the parents to take care of the moral and religious instruction of their children from the very beginning, otherwise they will be called to account for negligence on the Day of Judgement. Parents must inculcate God-consciousness in their children from an early age, whereby the children will gain an understanding of duty to The Creator.

 

The Holy Qur’an says: ‘O you who believe! Save yourself and your families from the Fire of Hell’. (Ch. 66: V6). This verse places the responsibility on the shoulders of the parents to ensure that training and guidance begin at home. The goal is to mould the child into a solid Islamic personality, with good morals, strong Islamic principles, knowledge and behavior so as to be equipped to face the demands of life in a responsible and mature manner. This should begin with the proper environment at home that inculcates the best moral and behavioral standards.

But what do we have instead? Believers of all Religious persuasions will agree that we have children growing up without parental guidance, a stable home environment, without role models, being brought up in surroundings that are not conducive to proper upbringing and moulding of well-adjusted children. These children are being brought up devoid of any parental guidance and increasingly the desperate situation of orphaned children having to raise their siblings (children raising children) because their parents have succumbed to the scourge of AIDS.

It is becoming common that more and more girls still in their schooling years are now falling pregnant, most of them unwanted, with the attendant responsibilities and difficulties.

Observe the many young ladies who are with children barely in their teens having illegitimate children. In the recent past there was a campaign focused on the ‘girl-child’; this campaign targeted this group of young females who had fallen pregnant and were now mothers. The situation is that the mother still being just a ‘child’ and not even having tasted adulthood, now has the onerous responsibility of raising her own child most of the time on her own because either the father has simply disappeared, refuses to takes responsibility, or in some cases not even known.

We cannot place the entire blame on these young mothers; as parents and society as a whole stand accused because we have shirked our responsibilities and worse still we ourselves are poor role models. The virtual breakdown of the extended family system and of the family unit in many homes means that there are no longer those safe havens of peace and tranquility that we once knew. How then do we expect to raise well-adjusted children in this poisoned atmosphere?

Alcohol has become socially acceptable and is consumed by many of our youth and alarmingly they are now turning to drugs. Alcohol is becoming so acceptable that it is easily accessible even at home where some parents share drinks with their children or buying it for them. This is not confined only to low income families it is becoming prevalent amongst our youth across the board.

 

It is frightening to witness how our youth are being influenced by blatantly suggestive pop culture messages over television, music videos and other social media. Children who are not properly grounded in being able to make rational and informed decisions between what is right and what is wrong are easily swayed by this very powerful medium.

 

So what do we do as parents? We first have to lead by example; it is no longer the parental privilege to tell the child ‘do as I say not as I do’- that no longer works. The ball is in the court of every religious leader (not some of the charlatans who masquerade as religious leaders), true adherents and responsible parents. We cannot ignore the situation we have to take an active lead in guiding and moulding our youth for a better tomorrow.

In Islam Prophet Muhammad (pbuh) said: “No father gives a better gift to his children than good manners and good character.”  Children should be treated not as a burden, but a blessing and trust of Allah, and brought up with care and affection and taught proper responsibilities etiquettes and behaviour.

Even the Bible says; ‘Suffer the little children to come unto me and forbid them not, for of such is the kingdom of God. Verily I say unto you, whosoever shall not receive the kingdom of God as a little child, he shall not enter therein’. (Mark 10:14-15)

The message is clear and needs to be taken by all of us: Parents let us rise to the occasion – we owe it to our children and their future.

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