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Businesses defer hope to 2021 as spiritus animalis deteriorates

A vintage philosophy from ancient British economist, John Myanard Keynes who pioneered the use of animal spirits, or originally spiritus animalis in Latin, metaphor into the business literature 84 years ago by looking at human behavior in connection with economics, gets a bright reincarnation today.

Bank of Botswana on a quarterly basis offers Business Expectations Survey (BES) – a research which collects information on the domestic business communitys perceptions about the prevailing state of the economy and prospects, hence resembling the Keynes school of thought.

The current economic status involving Botswana and the globe moves governments to borrow a leaf from the father of macroeconomics, Keynes. COVID-19 forces governments into emphasizing the Keynesian economics as demand and supply is now determined by a pandemic which has affected business and consumer confidence across the globe.

According to the March BES, which is the latest offering by the central bank, the dwindling business confidence which was recorded in the last quarter of 2019 was carried onto the first months of 2020 as firms approaches the current COVID-19 economic with less optimism.

March BES which was done for the first quarter of 2020, the time when COVID-19 was declared a pandemic by WHO, paints a gloomy picture on the business confidence in this country. March is the same period when Botswana registered its first corona virus cases, forcing a declaration of a 28 lockdown which put most part of the economic activity on chains.

According to BES report of March, the results suggest that firms were less optimistic about economic activity in the first quarter of 2020 compared to the fourth quarter of 2019. Businesses which were surveyed expected a decrease in exports and imports of goods and services; production; sales; stocks; profitability; and investment in buildings, vehicles and equipment in the first quarter of 2020.

Overall, businesses expected a decrease in exports and imports of goods and services; production; sales; stocks; profitability; and investment in buildings, vehicles and equipment in the first quarter of 2020, said the recent BES report.

The recent BES is a product of the survey carried out in the first quarter of 2020, covering the first quarter of 2020 (Q1:2020 – the current period); the second quarter of 2020 (Q2:2020); and the twelve-month period (M12) from April 2020 – March 2021 (Q2:2020- Q1:2021). The central bank reminded that the survey was conducted at the time when the coronavirus (Covid-19) that was first reported in Wuhan (China) began to spread rapidly across the globe and was later declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO).

The current survey whose response rate is 77 percent down from 82 percent recorded in the December 2019 survey looked at 100 businesses from eight economic sectors, namely: agriculture; mining; manufacturing; water and electricity; construction; trade, hotels and restaurants; transport and communications; and finance and business services.

The response rate reduced because firms who were surveyed either took time to respond or did not respond because they were on March lockdown. According BES the mining and quarrying sector will be hard hit because its business predominantly targets the export market which makes firms in the sector less optimistic about economic growth prospects over the survey horizon.

This is consistent with the unfavourable market conditions, especially with respect to the diamond industry, occasioned by, among others, weaker global demand for rough diamonds associated with the US-China trade war and the interruption of trading due to the outbreak of the Coronavirus pandemic, said the Bank of Botswana survey on domestic business confidence.

According to BES, there will be stagnation which will go towards the next 12-month period. Debswana has scaled production and De Beers is no longer doing sales until further notice. Botswana economy depends mostly on diamonds as they are also a mainstay of this countrys exports. Employment is expected to
Firms also do not see the economy to improve this year or on the last three remaining quarters of 2020.

Currently most businesses are on lockdown, save for retail businesses which are categorized as essential services. Consumers at large are on lockdown while business operating hours are shrunk to go with the 8pm daily national curfew.

According to the March BES, employment, which is only recorded for the second quarter, is expected to decline in the current survey. The mind of businesss dwindling spirits when looking at business confidence in the first half of 2020 is coincides with perceptions of weaker overall economic growth in the first quarter of 2020, and the overall contraction expected in the second quarter.

The perceived generally weaker economic performance in the current survey compared to the previous one could be associated with the disruption of business operations following the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic, says the BES.

Sleeping animalistic spirit to wake next year

Keynesian metaphorically compares a business mind to a never say die instinct of an animal. Seeming to have adopted the Keynesian school of thought, the BES focus mainly on anticipated direction of change in selected indicators: that is; whether conditions will improve, worsen or remain unchanged. According to the central bank, the results are then consolidated into an overall measure called net balance. This measure is obtained by summing the positive and negative responses to each question/element by firms belonging to the same sector, which are then weighted by the sectors contribution to nominal gross domestic product (GDP), according to Bank of Botswana.

That is why the firms negative projection of the economy which is dampened by low business confidence comes with a bit of optimism comes with a positive offset. For example, according to the March BES, there will be signs of increase by firms in investment in plant and machinery in the second quarter of 2020, but will be taken down by general anticipated tight access to credit in the domestic market.

While firms that were met by the BES expect the domestic economy to contract in the second quarter of 2020, there is a hope that things will improve as the year goes. Majority of firms looked at by the March BES expect business conditions to deteriorate in the first two quarters of 2020 some of the hope was deferred to improve in the twelve-month period to March 2021. The improvement which is expected to be carried towards March next year is expected to remain below the level recorded in March 2020.

The perceived improvement in optimism is in line with the anticipated universal economic recovery in 2021 by the International Monetary Fund. Confidence in the domestic market-oriented firms is mainly driven by the trade, hotels and restaurants, transport and communications sectors, says the recent BES.
Access to credit

The central bank last week cut the Bank rate by 50 basis points for economic stimulation and improve access to credit. Businesses wish to increase investment in plant and machinery in the second quarter of 2020, but are anticipating tight access to credit in the domestic market.

Firms in the domestic market perceived access to credit to be tight in the first quarter of 2020, mainly because they consider the domestic interest rates to be high, according to a survey on businesses. The business survey further said export-oriented market firms perceived access to credit to be normal, and the interest rates to have remained unchanged in the review period.

Some firms, especially those targeting the domestic market, prefer to borrow from both the domestic market and elsewhere (other than South Africa market) in 2020, according to BES. Most of the export-oriented firms prefer to borrow from both the domestic and South African markets, while they have no plans to borrow from elsewhere.

Firms expect the lending rates and the volume of borrowing from the domestic market to increase in the twelve-month period to March 2021 according to BES. Lending rates in the rest of the markets are expected to decline, while borrowing from elsewhere is expected to rise considerably and marginally in South Africa. BES says firms also expected inflation to remain stable and within the Banks medium-term objective range of 3 – 6 percent, for both 2020 and 2021.

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Fighting vulture poisoning in KAZA region.

3rd February 2023
As a response to avert vulture poisoning currently going on in Botswana and KAZA region, Birdlife Botswana has collaborated with three other partners (BirdWatch Zambia, BirdLife International & Birdlife Zimbabwe) to tackle wildlife poisoning which by extension negatively affect vulture populations.

The Director of Birdlife Botswana, Motshereganyi Virat Kootshositse has revealed in an interview that the project which is funded by European Union’s main goal is to reduce poisoning related vultures’ death and consequently other wildlife species death within the KAZA region.

He highlighted that Chobe district in Botswana has been selected as a pilot site as it has experienced rampant incidents of vulture poisoning for the past few months. In August this year at least 50 endangered white backed vultures were reported dead at Chobe National Park, Botswana after feeding on a buffalo carcass laced with poison.  In November this year again 43 white backed vultures were found dead and two alive after feeding on a zebra suspected to have poisoned.  Other selected pilots’ sites are Kafue in Zambia and Hwange in Zimbabwe.

Kootshositse further explained they have established a national and regional Wildlife Poisoning Committee. He added that as for the national committee they have engaged various departments such as Crop Productions, Agro Chemicals, Department of Veterinary Services, Department of Wildlife and National Parks and other NGOs such as Raptors Botswana to come together and find a long-lasting solution to address wildlife poisoning in Botswana. ‘Let’s have a strategy or a plan together to tackle wildlife poisoning,’ he stated

He also decried that there is gap in the availability of data about vulture poisoning or wildlife in general. ‘If we have a central point for data, it will help in terms of reporting and advocacy’, he stated

He added that the regional committee comprises of law enforcement officers such as BDF and Botswana police, village leadership such as Village Development Committee and Kgosi. ‘We need to join hand together and protect the wildlife we have as this will increase our profile for conservation and this alone enhances our visitation and boost our local economy,’ he noted

Kootshositse noted that Birdlife together with DWNP also addressed series of meeting in some villages in the Chobe region recently. The purpose of kgotla meetings was to raise awareness on the conservation and protection of vultures in Chobe West communities.

‘After realizing that vulture poisoning in the Chobe areas become frequent, we realise that we need to do something about it.  ‘We did a public awareness by addressing several kgotla meetings in some villages in the Chobe west,’ he stated

He noted that next year they are going to have another round of consultations around the Chobe areas and the approach is to engage the community into planning process. ‘Residents should be part of the plan of actions and we are working with farmers committee in the areas to address vulture poisoning in the area, ‘he added

He added that they have found out that some common reasons for poisoning wildlife are farmers targeting predators such as lions in retaliation to killing of their livestock. Another common incident cross border poaching in the Chobe area as poachers will kills an elephant and poison its carcass targeting vultures because of their aerial circling alerting authorities about poaching activities.

Kootshositse noted that in the last cases it was disheartening the incidents occurred three months apart. He added that for the first time they found that some of the body parts of some vultures were missing. He added harvesting of body parts of vultures is not a common practice in Botswana, although it is used in some parts of Africa. ‘We suspect that someone took advantage of the availability of carcasses and started harvesting their body parts,’

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Giant in the making: Everton Mlalazi

3rd February 2023

The music industry is at a point where artists are jostling for space because there are so many aspirants trying to get their big break, thus creating stiff competition.

In the music business it’s about talent and positioning. You need to be at the right place at the right time with the right people around you to propel you forward.
Against all odds, Everton Mlalazi has managed to takeover the gospel scene effortlessly.
To him, it’s more than just a breakthrough to stardom, but a passion as well as mission directly appointed by the Lord.

Within a short space of 2 years after having decided to persue a solo career, Mlalazi has already made it into international music scene, with his music receiving considerable play on several gospel television and radio stations in Botswana including other regional stations like Trace Africa, One Gospel, Metro FM in South Africa, Hope FM in Kenya and literally all broadcast stations in Zimbabwe.

It doesn’t only stop there, as the musician has already been nominated 2 times and 2 awards which are Bulawayo Arts Awards (BAA) best Male artists 2022, StarFM listerners Choice Award, Best Newcomer 2021 and ZIMA Best Contemporary Gospel 2022, MLA awards Best Male artist & Best Gospel Artist 2022.

Everton’s inspiration stems from his ultimate passion and desire to lead people into Godly ways and it seems it’s only getting started.
The man is a gospel artist to put on your radar.

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African countries call on WHO to increase funding

2nd February 2023

Minister of Health Dr Edwin Dikoloti says Africa member states call on World Health Organization (WHO) to ensure equitable resource allocation for 2024-2025. Dr Dikoloti was speaking this week at the WHO Executive Board Meeting in Geneva, Switzerland.

He said countries agreed that there is need to address the budget and funding imbalances by increasing the programme budget share of countries and regions to 75% for the next year.

“The proposed budget for 2024-2025 marks an important milestone as it is the first in Programme Budget in which country offices will be allocated more than half of the total budget for the biennium. We highly welcome this approach which will enable the organization to deliver on its mandate while fulfilling the expectations for transparency, efficiency and accountability.”

The Botswana Health Minister commended member states on the extension of the General Programme of Work (GPD 13) and the Secretariat work to monitor the progress towards the triple billion targets, and the health-related SDGs.

“We welcome the Director’s general proposed five priorities which have crystalized into the “five Ps” that are aligned with the GPW 13 extension. Impact can only be achieved through close coordination with, and support to national health authorities. As such, the strengthening of country offices is instrumental, with particular focus on strengthening national health systems and on promoting more equitable access to health services.”

According to Dr Dikoloti, the majority of countries with UHC index that is below the global median are in the WHO Africa region. “For that, we call on the WHO to enhance capacity at the regional and national levels in order to accelerate progress. Currently, the regional office needs both technical and financial support in order to effectively address and support country needs.”

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