The Botswana Stock Exchange (BSE) beginning of this week has found a decline of three stocks, market experts see this as one of the signs that COVID-19 has now shown symptoms of infection on the local bourse.
There could be an out of sight meaning of why COVID-19 comes to this country in trinity. Just like BSE recording a decline of three stocks due to the coronavirus associated impact on local market, Botswana discovered first three cases of the pandemic, causing the nation to go on standstill.
Market observation suggest that the three stocks which fell in the beginning could be investors’ response to the State of Emergency which was announced last week to effect on the dead of Thursday night. Just by Friday last week Stockbrokers Botswana produced a gloomy account of the Domestic Company Index (DCI) failing by 0.15 percent with all prices changes for the week being negative.
Experts believe investors kept their money safe in Botswana as the country was still ‘safe’ for COVID-19 before three first cases were announced and a declaration of State of Emergency or lockdown could have caused foreign investors to sell and run.
“The market has its ups and downs-unfortunately we have entered a down cycle, and at the moment we are seeing international investors selling out,” said a market research analyst. In its market summary released early in the week Motswedi Securities red flagged that, “the COVID-19 pandemic, is making its mark known on the local equity market.”
According to the stockbroker’s research on Monday the volumes traded in the session amounted to 4.6 million shares, of which changed ownership across 12 stocks, with a total market value of P14.99mn.
According to BSE Market Status for the period 1 January to 31 March 2020, The DCI experienced a “slight depreciation” of 0.09 percent in the period under review (from January to March) in comparison to a 0.43 percent increase registered in the same period in 2019. Another depreciation was registered on the foreign companies’ front as FCI recorded a depreciation of 0.71 percent in quarter 1 of 2020 relative to a decrease of 0.26 percent over the same period in 2019.
The falling in numbers in the local bourse can be attributed to investors’ reaction to last week first cases of coronavirus and the subsequent declaration of State of Emergency.
This is because BSE Market Status report of January to 18 March, before COVID-19 was discovered in the local shores, showed the local managed to be the fourth liquid stock exchange in Africa out of 27 bourses, holding onto its 2020 gains while the pandemic made its presence felt on other indexes who fell on the negative bear status.
The local bourse made headlines as it got up 1.5 percent this week against others. But the latest BSE report in which it exchange was holding a comparative with other indices which it acknowledged were impacted by “the volatility stemming from the COVID-19 pandemic,” the local stock exchange showed to also be growing fur and claws like its counterparts.
According to the report, the DCI’s US Dollar return over the quarter of 2020 amounted to a negative 11 percent on the back of the Pula depreciation of 12 percent against the dollar. The Johannesburg Stock Exchange ALSI also experienced massive losses with a depreciation of 39.5 percent over the quarter while the Stock Exchange of Mauritius (SEMDEX) lost 33.3 percent in US Dollar terms.
BSE turning from being stable to gradually growing fur and claws
However Motswedi Securities said the more liquid stocks, that is, those are deemed to be popular, have taken a turn for the bears in the market. If Botswana had not recorded any case of COVID-19, it took a long time to announce first cases, investors could have developed interest in BSE and made it a bull market, according to observations.
The local bourse is said to be illiquid, but was at least stable as its counterparts in African markets plunged in negatives. This week BSE is seen developing more fur and long claws, a metaphor for a stock market taking a turn for the bears in the market, declining or becoming a bear market.
On Monday companies in the DCI who pulled BSE down onto the bear market status are the once best performers like First National Bank Botswana(FNBB) which dropped 5 thebe to close to close at the price of P2.70/share, extending the stock’s yearly loss to -5.3 percent, according to Motswedi.
Another loser was Chobe which lost the largest in value by far in the day, to close at P11.00/share. “This 4.3 percent depreciation in the share price of the company was somewhat expected, given that the impact of Covid-19 is really being felt in the tourism and hospitality sector, as local borders have been closed off to international visitors and various lockdowns implemented across the world,” said Motswedi Securities.
Another bank which joined FNBB in the line of losers is BancABC which recorded decline in profit in its last week released financial results. According to Motswedi market research, BancABC, fell to its IPO price of P2.00/share, in its first movement of the year and this unfortunately resulted in the stock’s year to date ending the session at -1.0 percent.
An observer said banks including FNBB and BancABC are starting to feel the heat amid COVID-19 because of impairments and loan defaults now weighing heavily on them as lending is their main source of revenue, hence investor scare.
Many fear to buy shares now because the feel like BSE is now on decline like the rest and fear buying a bear market. But some believe buying stock can come with a good gamble and opportunities. One said it should be time to buy stock because it will give an investors the opportunity to negotiate a favourable price for themselves in future. “An example would be buying Chobe stock that traded 50 thebe below the opening price on Monday,” said one market analyst.
Motswedi Securities chief researcher Garry Juma said: “It depends with one’s risk appetite and the tenor of investment. If one is in for the long term, this is the time to buy some of those hard stocks to find, like Chobe which are now available and at a lower price.”
The Bulb World Chief Executive Officer (CEO) and entrepreneur, Ketshephaone Jacob has been selected as a 2021 Top 50 Africa’s Business Hero.
Jacob was chosen from a pool of 12,000 applicants – many of whom are highly-skilled and accomplished entrepreneurs.
Africa’s Business Hero, sponsored by technology entrepreneur, Jack Ma, aims to identify, support and inspire the next generation of African entrepreneurs who are making a difference in their local communities, working to solve the most pressing problems, and building a more sustainable and inclusive economy for the future.
The initiative is as inclusive as possible and applications were open in English and French to entrepreneurs from all African countries, all sectors, and all ages who operate businesses formally registered and headquartered in an African country, and that have a 3 year-track record.
Every year, finalists are selected to compete in the ABH finale pitch competition and participate in a TV Show that will be broadcast online and across the continent.
The finalists will compete for a share of US $1.5 million in grant money.
The Bulb World, is home grown LED light manufacturing company, which was partly funded by Citizen Entrepreneurial Development Agency (CEDA) at the tune of P4 million, to manufacture LED lighting bulbs for both commercial and residential use in 2017.
The Bulb World operate from the Special Economic Zone of Selibe Phikwe. Early this year, The BulB World announced its expansion to South Africa, setting in motion its ambitious Africa expansion plan.
During the first quarter of 2021, production in Botswana’s economic nucleus- the mining sector contracted by 12 percent. This is according to Mining Production Index released by Statistics Botswana this week.
The country’s central data body revealed that Index of Mining production stood at 74.4 during the first quarter of 2021, showing a negative year on-year growth of 12.0 percent, from 84.6 registered during the first quarter of 2020.
The main contributor to the decline in mining production came from the Diamonds sector, which contributed negative 11.7 percentage points. Soda Ash was the only positive contributor in the mining production, contributing 0.1 of a percentage point. However Soda Ash’s contribution was insignificant to offset the negative contribution made by Diamonds.
The quarter-on-quarter analysis by Statistics Botswana experts shows an increase of 16.3 percent from the index of 64.0 during the fourth quarter of 2020 to 74.4 observed during the period under review.
Diamond production decreased by 12.1 percent during the first quarter of 2021 compared to the same quarter of the previous year. The decrease was as a result of planned strategy to align production with weaker trading conditions mostly linked to Covid-19 protocols restrictions.
Botswana’s diamond sector is underpinned by Debswana, the country’s flagship rough producer- a 50-50 joint venture between government and global mining giant De Beers Group. The other producer is Canadian based Lucara Diamond Corp through its wholly owned Karowe Mine which is a relatively small but significant production that has made a name for itself worldwide with rare diamond recoveries of unprecedented carat size.
On the other hand, quarter-on quarter analysis shows that production has improved, registering a positive growth of 17.5 percent during the first quarter of 2021 compared to the preceding quarter – 2020 Q4.
Though production was significantly lower in the first quarter, the two producers ended Q2 with rare diamond recoveries. Debswana early last month found the world’s third largest gem diamond – weighing 1098 carat at Jwaneng Mine, its flagship gem quality diamonds producer, also regarded the world’s richest diamond mine.
A week later Lucara announced its second biggest recovery, the 1174 carat clivage near-gem dug from its Karowe Mine. The diamond is the world third in carat size after the plus-3000 carat Cullinan found in South Africa back in 1905 and the 1758 carat Sewelo unearthed at its Karowe mine in 2019. Debswana and Lucara are investing billions of pulas in underground mining projects to extend the life of its mines, Jwaneng & Karowe respectively.
In terms of Gold which is produced at Mupani mine near Botswana’s second city of Francistown output decreased by 17.9 percent during the first quarter of 2021 compared to the same quarter of the previous year.
Similarly, quarter-on-quarter analysis reflects that production decreased by 21.4 percent during the first quarter of 2021, compared to the preceding quarter. The decrease was as a result of the deteriorating lifespan of the mine as well as the impact of COVID-19 which slowed down the mining activities.
Soda Ash production increased by 11.1 percent during the first quarter of 2021 compared to the same quarter of the previous year. In terms of quarter-on-quarter Soda Ash production also showed an increase, picking up by 2.1 percent during the period under review. The increase in production is attributable to the effectiveness of the plant following refurbishment which occurred in the third quarter of 2020.
Salt production decreased by 34.0 percent during the first quarter of 2021, compared to the same quarter of the previous year. Similarly, the quarter-on-quarter analysis shows that salt production registered a decrease of 32.9 percent during the period under review. Both salt and Sodash are produced by partly government owned Botswana Ash (BotsAsh) operating from Sowa town near Makgadikgadi pans.
Coal production decreased by 11.2 percent during the first quarter of 2021, compared to the corresponding quarter of the previous year. The decrease was attributed to the reduced demand from Morupule B Power Station following the remedial works being undertaken, as one boiler was in operation during the period under review.
Although production fell, Statistics Botswana says there was no shortfall in supply of coal due to stockpiling. On the other hand, the quarter-on-quarter comparison shows that coal production increased by 20.4 percent compared to the preceding quarter.
Botswana’s flagship coal producer is Morupule Coal Mine; a wholly state owned mining company located in Palapye producing primarily for Botswana Power Corporation (BPC)’s power generation plants Morupule A & B.
The other coal producer is Botswana Stock Exchange listed Minergy which operates a 390 MT Coal Resource mine in Masama near Media in the southwestern edge of the Mmamabula Coalfields.
Department of Mines in the Ministry of Mineral Resources, Green Technology & Energy Security has awarded mining licence to Tshukudu Metals-a subsidiary of Aussie firm Sandfire Resources ,giving the company a green light to start piecing the ground at its Motheo Copper Project near Gantsi.
Lefoko Moagi, minister in charge of mineral resources in Botswana confirmed to weekendpost on Tuesday. Minister Moagi revealed that “the licence has been approved , but Sandfire Resources as a listed company will report to its shareholders and investors then make an official public statement” he said.
Based on a forecast copper price of US$3.16/lb (reflecting current long-term consensus pricing) the Base Case 3.2Mtpa – Ghantsi copper project is forecast to generate US$664 million (over P7 billion) in pre-tax free cash-flow and US$987 million (over P10 billion) in EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation and Amortisation), at a forecast all-in sustaining cost of US$1.76/lb over its first 10 years of operations.
In December 2020, the Board of Sandfire Resources approved the commercial development of the Motheo Copper Mine located in the Kalahari Copper Belt in Botswana, marking a key step in its transformation into a global, diversified, and sustainable mining company.
Tshukudu Metals Botswana (Pty) Limited (Tshukudu) a 100% owned subsidiary will be the owner and operator of the Motheo Copper Mine which is scheduled to produce up to 30,000 tonnes per annum of copper in concentrate over a 12 year mine life.TMB is targeting development of its Motheo Copper Mine in 2021 and 2022, with its first production in 2023.
GOVERNMENT NOT TAKING UP 15 % STAKE ON OFFER
Beginning of this year presentations were made to the Department of Mines as part of the Mining Licence approval process and to the Ghanzi Regional Council, additional information was requested by Department of Mines in April and was duly supplied by the company.
As part of the Mining Licence approval process, the Government of Botswana has a right to acquire up to a 15% fully contributing interest in all mining projects locally. Quizzed on whether government through Mineral Development Corporation Botswana (MDCB) would be taking up stake in the project Minister Moagi said, “No consideration is being made on that regard”.
“Government is not considering taking up a stake in the Ghantsi Copper Mine project, every opportunity is assessed on all risks, but Government makes money all the while from leases, taxes and royalties, remember if you take stake you are liable for liabilities of the project as well,” Moagi said.
Last month Sandfire announced that it has awarded over P5 billion worth mining contract to African Mining Services (AMS), a subsidiary of Perenti, to deliver the open cast operation.
The contract, which has an estimated value of US$496 million (over 5 billion), is the largest single operational contract for the new Motheo Project covering a period of 7 years and 3 months, with provision for a one-year extension.
The contract according to Sandfire Resources was awarded following a competitive 3-stage tender process which saw a number of key factors taken into consideration when selecting the preferred contractor.
These included Citizen Economic Empowerment, safety culture, equipment suitability and availability, commercial terms and identified improvement opportunities. Under the terms of the contract, AMS has agreed to form a 70:30 Joint Venture with a suitable local Botswana partner or partners.
The JV is expected to be finalized ahead of commencement of mining in early 2022. African Mining Services has been operating in Africa for over 30 years. AMS’ parent company, ASX listed diversified mining services group Perenti, already has a presence in Botswana through Barminco, their underground mining division, at the large-scale Khoemacau Copper Mine located 200km north-east of Motheo.
Last month Sandfire executives said the award of the open pit mining contract represents another key milestone in advancing the Motheo Project towards production, with all components of the contract in line with the key parameters outlined in the December 2020 Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS).
The company said full-scale construction of the US$279 million (over P 3 billion ) mine development is expected to commence immediately upon receipt of the Mining Licence, with mining scheduled to commence in early 2022 ahead of first production in early 2023. This week Sandfire Resources advertised over 10 positions in calling on applications from geologists, mining engineers and geotechnical engineers.
The Motheo mine has an initial mine life of 12.5 years based on production from the T3 pit. The initial development is expected to generate approximately 1,000 jobs during the construction phase and 600 direct full-time jobs during operations, with at least 95% of the total mine workforce expected to be made of up of Botswana citizens.
Later in the week Sandfire Resources announced in the company website that it has received the licence. Sandfire’s Managing Director and CEO, Mr Karl Simich, said the award of the Mining Licence represented a major milestone that would see a significant increase in construction and development activities on site.
“We are absolutely delighted to now be in a position to move to full-scale construction at Motheo, with our construction crews expected to mobilise to site over the next few days. I would like to thank the Government of Botswana for their support throughout the approvals process, which will see Motheo come on-stream in 2023 as one of very few new copper mines commencing production globally.”
Simich said the project is expected to generate approximately 1,000 jobs during construction and 600 full-time jobs during operations, and represents the foundation for Sandfire’s long-term growth plans in Botswana.
“Our vision is that Motheo will form the centre of a new, long-life copper production hub in in the central portion of the world-class Kalahari Copper Belt, where we hold an extensive ground-holding spanning Botswana and Namibia,” he said.