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BDP’s 2019 victory is doubtful (Part 2)

NDULAMO ANTHONY MORIMA
EAGLE WATCH

This is the last of the two-part series wherein we discuss circumstances which, in our view, show that the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP)'s victory at the 2019 general elections is doubtful.

Last week, we considered the Lerala-Maunatlala, Serowe North, Serowe South, Serowe West, Boteti West, Bobirwa, Palapye, Mochudi West, Molepolole South, Francistown South and Gabane-Mankgodi constituencies. This, we did in view of the changes in voting patterns which may be caused by the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC)’s debacle, which resulted in the expulsion of the Botswana Movement for Democracy (BMD) and the birth of the Alliance for Progressives (AP).

We also did this in view of the BDP’s current implosion caused by the April party presidential elections acrimony which has resulted in the expulsion of Honourable Sampson Guma Moyo and the suspension of Honourables Biggie Butale and Prince Maele. Of course, the factor which made us conclude that the BDPs 2019 victory is doubtful is the ongoing conflict between former president Lieutenant General Dr. Seretse Khama Ian Khama and His Excellency the President, Dr. Mokgweetsi Eric Keabetswe Masisi.

As you are aware, this has notably resulted in Dr. Khama and Honourable Butale as well as hundreds of their supporters resigning from the party. A new party, the Botswana Patriotic Front (BPF) is reportedly being formed as a result. It is the BPF and such Independent Candidates as Honourable Maele, who has already decided to that effect, which poses the greatest threat to the BDP’s continued rule post-2019.

This week, we discuss the possible impact of the low voter registration; the youth vote; the political realignment of trade unions and/or trade union leaders; the workers ‘vote and the Masisi factor in relation to workers. According to the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC)’s spokesperson, Osupile Maroba, this year’s voter registration exercise attracted around 933 627 voters who are eligible to vote out of the targeted 1 067 218 million. This means the IEC met 73.2% of its target.

According to Maroba, the 933 627-figure registered as follows:  753 470; 40 738 and 39 354 for the first voter registration, first supplementary registration and the second supplementary registration respectively. According to Maroba, in 2014, 824 073, out of the voting population of 1,067,218 million, had registered to vote by election time, making it 77% of their target which was about 4% higher compared to this year.

The IEC admits that the 2014 general elections were the most anticipated and turned out to be the most successful in terms of voter turnout since independence in 1966. In my view, this was because of such factors as the 2011 public sector strike; the suspected assassination of the late UDC Secretary General and BMD President, Gomolemo Motswaledi; the tyranny of the Directorate on Intelligence & Security Service (DISS) and Dr. Khama’s loss of support.

Reportedly, Maroba attributes this year’s low voter registration to a probable population growth in the country over the last few years. While that may be a factor, I believe the main reason is the ongoing conflicts bedeviling all political parties except the Alliance for Progressives (AP). The other reason is that discontentment with the ruling BDP has reduced. Consequently, the segments of our population, especially the youth and the workers, who, in 2014, may have registered in large numbers to vote for the UDC, have not registered this year.

According to the IEC, by 11th November 2018, the youth who had registered constituted only 30% of the first 750 000 people who had registered to vote. Though the IEC has not presented disaggregated data with respect to workers, it is likely that this year’s numbers will be lower than those for 2014 because the ‘moono’ phoria has, no doubt, fizzled, especially following the Botswana Public Employees Union(BOPEU)’s disaffiliation from the Botswana Federation of Public Sector Unions(BOFEPUSU).

Even BOFEPUSU itself is no longer as pro-UDC as it was in 2014. By this time in 2014, BOFEPUSU had released the so-called hit list targeting Members of Parliament (MPs) it wanted voted out, with His Excellency the President, Dr. Mokgweetsi Eric Keabetswe Masisi, top on the list. Veteran trade unionist, Johnson Motshwarakgole, is on record stating that H.E Dr. Masisi has done very well and he can vote for him, a view that is, no doubt, held by many of Motshwarakgole’s loyalists.

The Botswana Federation of Trade Unions (BFTU) too is lukewarm this year, perhaps because of BOPEU’s influence, which many regard as sympathetic to the ruling BDP. One thing is certain: there has been political realignment of trade unions and/or trade union leaders, mostly in favour of the BDP. In my view, therefore, it is not only the youth who have contributed to this year’s low voter registration. It is the workers who have lost the momentum of the 2011 public sector strike, in part because of the conflicts within the UDC, which led to the birth of the AP and the expulsion of the BMD.

The 2011 public sector strike momentum has also been lost because of the Masisi factor. Since assuming power, H.E Dr. Masisi has strived to mend relations between government and trade unions, especially BOFEPUSU. He has held meetings with trade unions, except the Botswana Landboards Local Authorities & Health Worker's Union (BLLAHWU) which reportedly declined the invitation rubbishing it as a public relations exercise. He has urged trade unions and the Directorate on Public Service Management (DPSM) to reconstitute the Public Service Bargaining Council (PSBC).

Perhaps most importantly for trade unions, this year’s salary negotiations were the smoothest in about a decade, resulting in agreed salary increases of 10% and 6% for A and B scales and C and D scales respectively for the 2019/2020 and 2020/2021 financial years. Over and above the salary increment agreement, it was agreed that the conditions of service and the findings of the PEMANDU report shall be negotiated upon by 2019 with a view to conclude a collective agreement on them.

Obviously in an attempt to gain the support of the armed forces, H.E Dr. Masisi recently introduced a new pay structure for the Botswana Defence Force(BDF), commonly called Ntlole, which was backdated to April 2012, resulting in the beneficiaries raking back pays which have reportedly had some cashing as much as P60,000 in back pays.

Of course, not all workers and trade unions have been placated by these gestures, but many, including Motshwarakgole, whose constituency of industrial class workers benefited the most, at least superficially, have been appeased enough to be prepared to vote for H.E Dr. Masisi in October 2019.

We all know that H.E Dr. Masisi will not be contesting any Parliamentary seat in 2019 since he is the BDP’s presidential candidate and there are no direct presidential elections in Botswana. So, when one says they will vote for H.E Dr. Masisi they effectively mean that they will vote for the BDP. For this reason, although last week I presented circumstances which I concluded make the BDP’s victory in 2019 doubtful, the aforegoing, coupled with the ailing Opposition, may just see the BDP through.

But already workers have began expressing discontent at the lack of progress regarding the review of conditions of service exercise conducted by PEMANDU. In fact, some workers blame BOFEPUSU for that and are totally against the idea that government and trade unions will be conducting a nationwide consultation exercise, arguing that their concerns are already known.

Ntlole itself is not without controversy. Reportedly, whilst celebrating the adjustment with other employees, BDF nurses received letters instructing them to return to the C1 salary scale they were moved to at the end of April. Their upward move was allegedly reversed because their ranks, being Non-Commissioned Officers (NCOs), do not warrant movement to C1 scale.

Ntlole is also reported to have further widened the gap between the Botswana Police Service (BPS) and the BDF salary structure, something that may bring division within the armed forces. So, H.E Dr. Masisi has about four months to deal with these issues, failing which, especially if the BPF becomes the force it says it will be, the country may, for the first time in its history, have a hung Parliament, something which can result in the UDC attaining power by entering into a coalition with other opposition political parties, especially the AP and BPF.

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Appendicitis: Recognising the Signs

29th March 2022

Many a times I get clients casually walking into my room and requesting to be checked for “appendix”.  Few questions down the line, it is clear they are unaware of where the appendix is or what to expect when one does have it (appendicitis). Jokingly (or maybe not) I would tell them they would possibly not be having appendicitis and laughing as hard as they are doing. On the other hand, I would be impressed that at least they know and acknowledge that appendicitis is a serious thing that they should be worried about.

So, what is Appendicitis?

Appendicitis is an inflammation of the appendix; a thin, finger-like pouch attached to the large intestine on the lower right side of the abdomen. Often the inflammation can be as a result of blockage either by the faecal matter, a foreign body, infection, trauma or a tumour. Appendicitis is generally acute, with symptoms coming on over the course of a day and becoming severe rapidly. Chronic appendicitis can also occur, though rarely. In chronic cases, symptoms are less severe and can last for days, weeks, or even months. 

Acute appendicitis is a medical emergency that almost always ends up in the operating theatre. Though the appendix is locally referred to as “lela la sukiri”, no one knows its exact role and it definitely does not have anything to do with sugar metabolism. Appendicitis can strike at any age, but it is mostly common from the teen years to the 30s.

Signs to look out for

If you have any of the following symptoms, go and see a Doctor immediately! Timely diagnosis and treatment are vital in acute appendicitis;

Sudden pain that starts around the navel and shifts to the lower right abdomen within hours

The pain becomes constant and increases in severity (or comes back despite painkillers)

The pain worsens on coughing, sneezing, laughing, walking or deep breaths

Loss of appetite

Nausea and vomiting

Fever

Constipation or diarrhoea

Abdominal bloating/fullness

Diagnosis

The doctor often asks questions regarding the symptoms and the patient’s medical history. This will be followed up by a physical examination in which the Doctor presses on the abdomen to check for any tenderness, and the location of the pain. With acute appendicitis, pressing on and letting go of the right lower abdomen usually elicits an excruciatingly unbearable pain. Several tests may be ordered to determine especially the severity of the illness and to rule out other causes of abdominal pain. The tests may conditions include: blood tests, a pregnancy test, urinalysis, abdominal  “How do ultrasound scans work?” ultrasound (scan), CT scan or MRI Scan.

Treatment

The gold standard treatment of acute appendicitis is surgical removal of the appendix known as appendectomy. Luckily, a person can live just fine without an appendix! Surgical options include laparoscopy or open surgery and the type will be decided on by the Surgeon after assessing the patient’s condition. Painkillers and antibiotics are also given intravenously usually before, during and after the surgery.

Complications

Appendicitis can cause serious complications such as;

Appendicular mass/abscessIf the appendix is inflamed or bursts, one may develop a pocket of pus around it known as an abscess. In most cases, the abscess will be treated with antibiotics and drained first by placing a tube through one’s abdominal wall into the abscess. The tube may be left in place for a few hours or days while the infection is clearing up but ultimately one would still have surgery to remove the appendix.

Peritonitis – without treatment, the appendix can rupture/burst. The risk of this rises 48–72 hours after symptoms start. A ruptured appendix spreads the infection throughout the abdomen (peritonitis). This is life threatening and requires immediate surgery to remove the appendix and clean the abdominal cavity.

Death – The complications of appendicitis (and appendectomy) can be life threatening, only if the diagnosis has been missed and no proper treatment has been given on time. This is rare though with the evolved medical care.

If you need further advice or treatment please call 4924730, email  HYPERLINK “mailto:info@themedicscentre.co.bw” info@themedicscentre.co.bw or visit www.themedisccentre.co.bw

Antoinette Boima, MBBS, BMedSci, PgDip HIV/AIDS, Cert Aesth Med is the Managing Director of The Medics Centre in Palapye.

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A degree of common sense

7th February 2022

Here’s a news item from last month you may have missed. In December 2021 the University of Staffordshire announced it would be offered a degree course in pantomime! Yes, that’s right, a degree in popular festive entertainment, the Christmas panto.

We used to have one here, put on by the Capitol Players, though it seems to have fallen away in recent times, but the spectacle is still alive and well in the UK, both in local ad-dram (amateur dramatic ) societies and on the London stage and most of the major cities, these latter productions usually featuring at least one big-draw name from the world of show business with ticket prices commensurate with the star’s salary.

In case you’re unfamiliar with the pantomime format, it consists of a raucous mixture of songs and comedy all based around a well-known fairy or folk tale. Aladdin and His Magic Lamp, Cinderella, Jack & The Beanstalk & Dick Whittington are perennial favourites but any well-known tall tale goes. There is no set script, unlike a play, and storyline is just a peg to hang a coat of contemporary, often bawdy, gags on, in what should be a rollicking production of cross dressing – there has to be at least one pantomime dame, played by a man and always a figure of fun, and a Principal Boy, ostensibly the male lead, yet played by an attractive young woman.

As an art form it can trace its roots back to 16th century Italy and the Commedia Del’Arte which used a mélange of music, dance, acrobatics along with a cast of comic stock characters so it has a long and proud theatrical tradition but you have to wonder, does that really qualify it as a suitable subject for a university? Further, what use might any degree be that can be acquired in a single year? And last but not least, how much standing does any degree have which comes from a jumped-up polytechnic, granted university status along with many of its ilk back in 1992, for reasons best known to the government of the time? Even more worrying are the stated aims of the course.

Staffordshire University claims it is a world first and the masters course is aimed at people working inside as well as outside the industry. Students on the course, due to start in September 2022, will get practical training in the art form as well as research the discipline.

“We want to see how far we can take this,” Associate Professor of Acting and Directing Robert Marsden said. The role of pantomime in the 21st Century was also going to be examined, he said, “particularly post Me Too and Black Lives Matter”. Questions including “how do we address the gender issues, how do we tell the story of Aladdin in 2021, how do we get that balance of male/female roles?” will be asked, Prof Marsden added.

Eek! Sounds like Prof. Marsden wants to rob it of both its history and its comedic aspects – well, good luck with that! Of course that isn’t the only bizarre, obscure and frankly time and money-wasting degree course available. Staying with the performing arts there’s Contemporary Circus and Physical Performance at Bath Spa University. Sounds like fun but why on earth would a circus performer need a university degree?

Or how about a Surf Science and Technology degree at Cornwall College (part of the University of Plymouth). Where the one thing you don’t learn is….how to surf!

Then there is a  degree in Floral Design at University Centre Myerscough. No, I hadn’t heard of it either – turns out it’s a college of further education in Preston, a town that in my experience fits the old joke of ‘I went there once…..It was closed’ to a ‘T’!

Another handy (pun intended) art is that of Hand Embroidery BA (Hons), offered at the University for the Creative Arts. Or you could waste away sorry, while away, your time on a course in Animal Behaviour and Psychology. This degree at the University of Chester teaches you about the way animals think and feel. Cockroaches have personalities according to the subject specs– you couldn’t make it up.

Happily all these educational institutes may have to look to their laurels and try to justify their very existence in the near future. In plans announced this week, universities could face fines of up to £500,000 (P750m), be stripped of their right to take student loans or effectively shut down if they cannot get 60 per cent of students into a professional job under a crackdown on ‘Mickey Mouse’ courses. Further, at least 80 per cent of students should not drop out after the first year, and 75 per cent should graduate.

The rules, published by the Office for Students (OfS), aim to eliminate ‘low-quality’ courses by setting new standards & requiring courses to improve their rating in the TEF, the official universities ratings system. Universities not meeting the new standards will not be able to charge full annual fees of £9,250. Unconventional courses that could fall victim to the new rules could include the University of Sunderland’s BA in Fashion Journalism, where students learn essential’ skills such as catwalk reporting and the history of Chanel.  They have only a 40 per cent chance of entering highly skilled work 15 months after leaving.

At University College Birmingham, BSC Bakery and Patisserie Technology students – who learn how to ‘make artisan bread’ – have a 15 per cent chance of a professional job within 15 months. Universities minister Michelle Donelan welcomed the move, saying ‘When students go to university, they do so in the pursuit of a life-changing education, one which helps pave their path towards a highly skilled career. Any university that fails to match this ambition must be held to account.’

OfS found that at 25 universities, fewer than half of students find professional work within 15 months.  Business and management courses at the University of Bedfordshire (14.8 per cent) were among the least likely to lead to graduate-level jobs.  Asked to comment, the University of Sunderland said it always looked ‘to find ways to improve outcomes’; University College Birmingham said data on graduates and definition of ‘professional work’ was limited. I’ll bet it is! As the saying goes, ’what the eye doesn’t see, the heart doesn’t grieve over’. What a pantomime!

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Why regular health checks are important!

7th February 2022

With the world still reeling from the negative impact of the Coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19), and the latest Omicron variant (which is responsible for the ongoing global forth wave) on everyone’s lips, we should not forget and neglect other aspects of our health.

While anyone can get infected with corona virus and become seriously ill or die at any age, studies continue to show that people aged 60 years and above, and those with underlying medical conditions like hypertension, heart and lung problems, diabetes, obesity, cancers, or mental illness are at a higher risk of developing serious illness or dying from covid-19.

It is a good habit to visit a doctor regularly, even if you feel healthy. Regular health checks can help identify any early signs of health issues or assess your risk of future illness hence prompting one to take charge and maintain a healthy lifestyle. Heart disease, diabetes, some cancers and other non-communicable diseases (even communicable) can often be picked up in their early stages, when chances for effective treatment are high.

During a health check, your doctor will take a thorough history from you regarding your medical history, your family’s history of disease, your social life and habits, including your diet, physical activity, alcohol use, smoking and drug intake. S/he will examine you including measuring your weight, blood pressure, feeling your body organs and listening to your heart and lungs amongst the rest. Depending on the assessment, your doctor will notify you how often you need to have a health check. If you have a high risk of a particular health condition, your doctor may recommend more frequent health checks from an early age.

Diet – a healthy diet improves one’s general health and wellbeing. It is recommended that we have at least two serves of fruit and five serves of vegetables daily. Physical activity – regular physical activity has significant health benefits on one’s body, mind & soul. It contributes to preventing and managing non-communicable diseases such as cardiovascular diseases, cancers and diabetes, reduce symptoms of depression and anxiety, enhances thinking, learning, and judgment skills and improves overall well-being. According to the world health organisation (WHO), people who are insufficiently active have a 20% to 30% increased risk of death compared to people who are sufficiently active. Aim for 30 minutes to an hour of moderate physical activity at least four days in a week. Examples of moderate physical activity include brisk walking, gentle swimming and social tennis.

Weight – maintaining a healthy weight range helps in preventing long-term complications like cardiovascular disease, diabetes and arthritis. It is also vital for one’s mental wellbeing and keeping up with normal activities of daily living. Ask your doctor to check your body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference annually. If you are at a higher risk, you should have your weight checked more frequently and a stern management plan in place.

Alcohol – as per WHO reports, alcohol consumption contributes to 3 million deaths each year globally as well as to the disabilities and poor health of millions of people. Healthy drinking entails taking no more than two standard drinks per drinking day with at least two alcohol-free days in a week.

Smoking –Nicotine contained in tobacco is highly addictive and tobacco use is a major risk factor for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, many different types of cancer, and many other debilitating health conditions. Every year, at least a whopping 8 million people succumb from tobacco use worldwide. Tobacco can also be deadly for non-smokers through second-hand smoke exposure. It is not ‘fashionable’ if it is going to cost you and your loved ones lives! If you are currently smoking, talk to your doctor and get help in quitting as soon as possible to reduce the harm.

Blood pressure: Hypertension is a serious medical condition and can increase the risk of heart, brain, kidney and other diseases. It is a major cause of premature death worldwide, with upwards of 1 in 4 men and 1 in 5 women – over a billion people – having the condition. Have your blood pressure checked annually if it is normal, you are aged under 40 and there is no family history of hypertension. You might need to have it checked more frequently if you are over 40, your blood pressure is on the high side, or you have a personal or family history of high blood pressure, stroke or heart attack. Your doctor will be there to guide you.

Dental care – eating a low-sugar diet and cleaning and flossing the teeth regularly can reduce one’s risk of tooth decay, gum disease and tooth loss. Visit a dentist every six months for a dental examination and professional cleaning, or more frequently as per your dentist’s advice.
Blood tests – annual to five-yearly blood tests may be done to further assess or confirm risk of disease. These may include blood sugar levels, cholesterol levels, kidney function, liver function, tumour markers, among other things. They may be done frequently if there is already an existing medical condition.

Cancer screening – various screening techniques can be done to detect different cancers in their early or pre-cancer stages. These include; skin inspections for any suspicious moles/spots, two-yearly mammograms for those at risk of developing breast cancer, Pap smear or the new Cervical Screening Test (CST) every five years, stool tests and colonoscopy (every five years) for those at most risk of bowel cancer, prostate cancer screening for those at risk (over 45 years of age, family history of cancers etc.). Discuss appropriate tests with your doctor.

Vaccinations – You should discuss with your doctor about the necessary routine immunisation, in particular; the Covid-19 vaccines, an annual flu shot, a five-yearly pneumococcal vaccine if you have never had one or you are immunocompromised and any other boosters that you might need.

If you need further advice or treatment please call 4924730, email HYPERLINK “mailto:info@themedicscentre.co.bw” info@themedicscentre.co.bw or visit www.themedisccentre.co.bw

Antoinette Boima, MBBS, BMedSci, PgDip HIV/AIDS, Cert Aesth Med is the Managing Director of The Medics Centre in Palapye.

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