Following a sharp decline in government debt from multilateral debt-relief initiatives in the last decade, primary fiscal deficits, currency depreciation as well as the materialization of contingent liabilities in some countries, has driven an accumulation in SSA sovereign debt since 2012.
This is according to a report by Moody's Investors Service released last week. The Global think tank says while containing debt-servicing costs in the near term, relatively favourable financing conditions in recent years have encouraged spending and debt accumulation especially for infrastructure investment. “Between 2012 and 2018, government debt-to-GDP ratios increased by at least 15 percentage points in almost two thirds of the sovereigns we rate in SSA and by at least 30 percentage points in about one third.” Reads the report released from UK this week.
Moody’s says Government debt now exceeds 50% of GDP in more than half of the region's rated sovereigns. Angola, Mozambique, Zambia and the Republic of the Congo are among the sovereigns that have experienced the most rapid accumulation of government debt since 2012. The report further reveals that drivers behind the debt increase vary, including disclosure of hidden debt in the case of Mozambique, exchange rate depreciation inflating the foreign-currency denominated debt in the case of Angola and Zambia as well as persistent fiscal deficits.
Sub-Saharan African sovereigns' debt has increased and affordability has deteriorated, with government debt now exceeding 50% of GDP in more than half of the sovereigns we rate in the region," said Daniela Re Fraschini, a Moody's AVP-Analyst and the report's co-author.
"At the same time, a shift in creditor bases has increased credit risks in several countries. He said
Moody's Investors Service says although the debt burdens of most Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) governments will stabilize in 2020-21 after years of increase, several sovereigns are now increasingly vulnerable to a financing shock. Credit risks are highest in countries where unfavourable debt structures coincide with narrow external buffers, financing constraints on domestic banking sectors and weak debt-management capacity. The Republic of Congo, Mozambique and Zambia are most exposed, while Ghana, Angola and Kenya are also vulnerable but to a lesser extent.
With countries having greater access to capital markets, issuance on domestic and international capital markets has increased and the share of borrowing from multilateral lenders has fallen. Although this has diversified funding sources, fostered investor scrutiny on macro-fiscal policy and provided funding for development spending, Moody’s says it has also increased exposure to global financing conditions, amplified foreign-currency exposures and increased refinancing risk. At the same time, in some countries bilateral lending has shifted toward non-traditional creditors that usually offer less transparent and predictable terms.
Daniela Re Fraschini says the domestic banking sector remains the main holder of domestic bonds and a significant portion of total government debt and its absorption capacities may be limited, especially when the sector is small relative to the sovereign's financing needs. Fraschini however says its absorption capacities may be limited, especially when the sector is small relative to the sovereign's financing needs like in Kenya and government securities already account for a large share of assets.
In Ghana and Zambia, relatively high foreign participation in the domestic market intensifies the vulnerability to shifts in investor appetite. “Improvements in debt management have not been commensurate to the risks from higher debt levels and debt structures more exposed to financing shocks” he said
The composition of public debt in terms of maturity, interest rate and currency structure and the existence of explicit or implicit contingent liabilities determine a government's resilience to domestic and external shocks, and is an important consideration in our assessment of fiscal strength, government liquidity risk as well as external vulnerability risk.
Moody’s assessment of fiscal strength typically incorporates the vulnerability to adverse currency movements leading to an increase in the sovereign’s overall debt burden and a decrease in its debt affordability by measuring the share of foreign-currency debt. Debt affordability and contingent liabilities that pose substantial risks to a government’s balance sheet are also captured in the assessment of fiscal strength. Moody’s further assess government liquidity risk focusing on the sovereign's ease of access to funding, taking into account the maturity and cost structure, the currency mix and the creditor base.
Assessment of external vulnerability risk takes into account external imbalances, large reliance on short-term capital inflows to finance the current account deficit that can result in depreciation pressures and the adequacy of foreign reserve buffers to meet foreign currency payments.
Moody’s says amid favourable conditions in global financial markets and increased foreign interest in domestic debt markets, governments in SSA have shifted their borrowing strategies away from international financial institutions and traditional bilateral official creditors to private creditors. The decline in the share of multilateral debt since 2012 has been most pronounced in Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria, Senegal, Uganda and Zambia. Sovereigns that have reported an increase in multilateral financing include Gabon and Niger
A total of 15 governments in SSA issued international bonds between 2010 and 2019, several on a repeated basis with sizeable issuances. “The eurobond issuance of the SSA sovereigns of countries rated by Moody’s reached a record high $19.2 billion in 2018, more than triple 2016 levels. Sovereigns across the region have tapped international bond markets for different reasons including supporting the development of the corporate bond markets in countries such as South Africa and Nigeria and mostly for financing the increase in public investment
Chinaâ€™s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded by 3% year-on-year to 121.02 trillion yuan ($17.93 trillion) in 2022 despite being mired in various growth pressures, according to data from the National Bureau Statistics.
The annual growth rate beat a median economist forecast of 2.8% as polled by Reuters. The countryâ€™s fourth-quarter GDP growth of 2.9% also surpassed expectations for a 1.8% increase.
In 2022, the Chinese economy encountered more difficulties and challenges than was expected amid a complex domestic and international situation. However, NBS said economic growth stabilized after various measures were taken to shore up growth.
Industrial output rose 3.6% in 2022 over the previous year, while retail sales slightly shrank by 0.2% data show that fixed-asset investment increased 5.1% over 2021, with a 9.1% hike in manufacturing investment but a 10% fall in property investment.
China created 12.06 million new jobs in urban regions throughout the year, surpassing its annual target of 11 million, and officials have stressed the importance of continuing an employment-first policy in 2023.
Meanwhile, China tourism market is a step closer to robust recovery. Tourism operators are in high spirits because the market saw a good chance of a robust recovery during the Spring Festival holiday amid relaxed COVID-19 travel policies.
On January 27, the last day of the seven-day break, the Ministry of Culture and Tourism published an encouraging performance report of the tourism market. It said that domestic destinations and attractions received 308 million visits, up 23.1% year-on-year. The number is roughly 88.6% of that in 2019, they year before the pandemic hit.
According to the report, tourism-related revenue generated during the seven-day period was about 375.8 billion yuan ($55.41 billion), a year-on-year rise of 30%. The revenue was about 73% of that in 2019, the Ministry said.
The state of the art jewellery manufacturing plant that has been set up by international diamond and cutting company, KGK Diamonds Botswana will create over 100 jobs, of which 89 percent will be localized.
Local diamond and metal exploration company Tsodilo Resources Limited has negotiated a non-brokered private placement of 2,200, 914 units of the company at a price per unit of 0.20 US Dollars, which will provide gross proceeds to the company in the amount of C$440, 188. 20.
According to a statement from the group, proceeds from the private placement will be used for the betterment of the Xaudum iron formation project in Botswana and general corporate purposes.
The statement says every unit of the company will consist of a common share in the capital of the company and one Common Share purchase warrant of the company.
Each warrant will enable a holder to make a single purchase for the period of 24 months at an amount of $0.20. As per regularity requirements, the group indicates that the common shares and warrants will be subject to a four month plus a day hold period from date of closure.
Tsodilo is exempt from the formal valuation and minority shareholder approval requirements. This is for the reason that the fair market value of the private placement, insofar as it involves the director, is not more than 25% of the companyâ€™s market capitalization.
Tsodilo Resources Limited is an international diamond and metals exploration company engaged in the search for economic diamond and metal deposits at its Bosoto Limited and Gcwihaba Resources projects in Botswana. Â The company has a 100% stake in Bosoto which holds the BK16 kimberlite project in the Orapa Kimberlite Field (OKF) in Botswana.