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Job creation and unemployment conundrum: crisis or not?

President Mokgweetsi Masisi has this week reiterated that it is not the responsibility of government to create jobs amid unprecedented rising levels of unemployment, following the release of the latest unemployment figures by Statistics Botswana.

About 200 000 Batswana are actively seeking employment while 68 000 have given up on getting a job, according to Statistics Botswana, who this week released results of a first of its kind Quarterly Multi-Topic Survey on Labour Force. While it has been a trend to see unemployment decreasing, this time the percentage took a backflip, increased, producing a likely worrisome trend due to possible grievous consequences to the economy.

“It is never a good indicator when you are regressing. If you see a situation where unemployment numbers are increasing, it can never be a good indicator. It is not a movement in a right direction,” First National Bank Botswana (FNBB) Chief Economist Moatlhodi Sebabole told WeekendPost on Wednesday. “It is a challenge to the economy because people are economic agents. When people are unable to find jobs; and their salaries are stagnant, and there are no new entrants in the job market and there is no new generation of income, it has ripple effects in the economy.”

Moatlhodi, who also chairs the National Transformation Strategy, said unemployment means that the private sector, which has to create job opportunities is unable to do so, which may be due to various reasons such as demand and opportunities.“It is not [unemployment] a crisis but it is increasing the pressure that people feel, [that] the economy feels, and definitely [that] the entire country feels. The multiplying effect of it has got the implication on the day-to-day standards of living,” Moatlhodi said.

“It can go on to impact government because whereas government should be focusing on capital investment, there could be consideration to spend more on social welfare for those who are affected. It could [also] balloon the social expenditure.” Masisi, who inherited an ailing economy from his predecessor, Lt Gen Ian Khama, has been styled as “Jobs President” following his ascendance to the throne. Incidentally, the mandate of job creation was within Masisi’s orbit as Vice President a few years ago.

While Masisi has promised to create jobs, and has travelled the world in a bid to lure investors to set-up businesses in Botswana, his statements relating to job creation, continue to betray his probable ambition. Masisi has continuously indicated that there is “no need to set targets on number of jobs to be created under his government”, as well as asserting that government’s role in job creation is peripheral, while the bulk of it remains with the private sector.

This week, Masisi when addressing the media following his return from Davos summit in Switzerland, said his government’s responsibly is “to create enabling environment” hoping that the private sector will then strive under such circumstances and create jobs. The vagueness relating to “creating enabling environment” is that, it is never pronounced. Creating enabling environment, under strict terms, essentially means taking care of all the necessary requirement for a competitive economy, which includes, but not limited to investing in infrastructure i.e. roads, power, internet, telecommunication and others.

 This also means repealing laws that are anti-business, such as monopolies, permits and other laws are barriers to entry in business. Botswana has been declining in rankings as far as the competitiveness of its economy is concerned.  For instance, in 2019, Global Competitiveness Report ranked Botswana 90th most competitive economy out of 140 countries, far much worse off than it ranked in 2009, where it was number 56 in the world.

In the same year, Doing Business Report, said Botswana is ranked 86 out of 190 countries far much worse than it did in 2006, when it was ranked 40th in the world. Botswana has fared poorly in pillars such as infrastructure, ICT adoption, and innovation capability, an indication that Masisi has more work to do, before he can confidently say, “he has created an enabling environment.”

 In 2017, Head of South African Development Community (SADC) Public Private Partnership (PPP) Network, Kogan Pillay warned that Botswana and Africa will go into recession in the next 10 years if the country does not adequately invest in its infrastructural needs. Pillay, who has vast experience in the implementation of PPPs and has previously worked for the South African government, is of the view that Africa’s big investors will shun the continent because of lack of infrastructure necessary for doing business.

“World Bank has warned about this happening,” he said at a workshop organised by Ministry of Finance and Economic Management. “Africa would not attract FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) because nobody would want to do business in a country which does not have infrastructure. It makes doing business difficult,” Pillay stated. According to Pillay, Africa needs US$ 90 billion to fund its infrastructural needs but it only has US$45 million availed for such.

It is believed that Botswana’s infrastructural needs can be resolved by developing an effective PPPs framework. Pillay believes that Botswana is not ready for PPPs until it develops a legal frame work which will guide investment and implementation of PPPs. “What Botswana has now is a policy, but you need to put it into law like other countries including South Africa,” he said. Pillay said PPPs are long term concessions to the private sector and should be done in a prudent manner to avoid forcing the country into bad commitment.

Government has however been reluctant to either pursue PPPs, or borrow from the Botswana Public Officers Pension Fund (BPOPF), as advised by experts, to finance its infrastructural deficiency. In view of the realities on the ground, Masisi’s claim for enabling environment will prove to be more difficult than the creation of jobs itself because it needs financing as well as time to take shape.

This is so because, in order for business or the private sector to thrive, it will depend on the agility of government in investing in infrastructure. Botswana, like any other country faces infrastructure financing gap, which then provides a challenge for Masisi to meet his obligations.

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Understanding the US Electoral College and key election issues 

28th October 2020
Mark J Rozell

The United States (US) will on the 3rd of November 2020 chose between incumbent Donald Trump of the Republicans and former Vice President Joe Biden of the Democrats amid the coronavirus pandemics, which has affected how voting is conducted in the world’s biggest economy.

Trump (74) seeks re-election after trouncing Hillary Clinton in 2016, while Biden (77) is going for his first shot as Democratic nominee after previous unsuccessful spells.

US Presidents mostly succeed in their re-election bid, but there have been nine individuals who failed to garner a second term mandate, the latest being George W H. Bush, a Republican who served as the 41st US President between 1989 and 1993.

Dr Mark Rozell, a Dean of  the School of Policy and Government at George Mason University  in  Arlington, Virginia describes the complex US electoral system that will deliver the winner at the 3rd November elections.

“The founders of our Republic de-centralised  authority  significantly  in  creating  our  constitutional  system,  which  means that  they  gave  an  enormous  amount  of  independent  power  and  authority  to  State  and  local governments,” Dr Rozell told international media on Elections 2020 Virtual Reporting Tour.

Unlike  parliamentary  democracies, like Botswana the  United  States  does  not  have  all  of  the  national government elected in one year. They do not have what is commonly called mandate elections where  the  entire  federal  government  is  elected  all  in  one  election  cycle  giving  a  “mandate”  to  a particular political party to lead, and instead US have what are called staggered elections, elections over time.

The two house Congress, members of the House of Representatives have two-year long terms of office. Every two years the entire House of Representatives is up for re-election, but senators  serve  for  six  years  and  one  third  of  the  Senate is elected every  two  years.

For this election cycle, US citizens will be electing the President and Vice

President, the entire House of Representatives and one third of the open or contested seats in the Senate, whereas two thirds are still fulfilling the remainder of their terms beyond this year.

An  important  facet  of  US electoral  system  to  understand  given  the  federalism  nature  of  the republic, the US elect presidents State by State, therefore they do not have a national popular vote for the presidency.

“We have a national popular vote total that says that Hillary Clinton got three million more votes than Donald Trump or in Year 2000 that Al Gore got a half million more votes than George W. Bush, but we have what is called a State by State winner takes all system where each State  is  assigned  a  number  of  electors  to  our  Electoral  College  and  the  candidate  who  wins  the popular vote within each State takes 100 percent of the electors to the Electoral College,” explained Dr Rozell.

“And that is why mathematically, it is possible for someone to win the popular vote but lose the presidency.”

Dr Rozell indicated that in 2016, Hillary Clinton won very large popular majorities in some big population States like California, but the system allows a candidate to only have to  win  a  State  by  one  vote  to  win  a  100 percent of  its  electors,  the  margin  does  not  matter.

“Donald  Trump  won  many  more  States  by  smaller  margins,  hence  he  got  an  Electoral  College majority.”

Another interesting features by the way of US constitutional system, according to Dr Rozell, but extremely rare, is what is called the faithless elector.

“That’s the elector to the Electoral College who says, ‘I’m not going to vote the popular vote in my State, I think my State made a bad decision and I’m going  to  break  with  the  popular  vote,’’ Dr Rozell said.

“That’s constitutionally a very complicated matter in our federalism system because although the federal constitution says electors may exercise discretion, most States have passed State laws making it illegal for any elector to the Electoral College to break faith with the popular vote of that State, it is a criminal act that can be penalized if one is to do that. And we just had an important Supreme Court case that upheld the right of the states to impose and to enforce this restriction”

There are 538 electors at the Electoral College, 270 is the magic number, the candidate who gets 270 or more becomes President of the United States.

If however there are more candidates, and  this  happens  extremely  rarely,  and  a  third  candidate  got  some electors  to  the  Electoral  College  denying  the  two  major  party  candidates,  either  one  getting  a majority, nobody gets 270 or more, then the election goes to the House of Representatives and the House of Representatives votes among the top three vote getters as to who should be the next President.

“You’d have to go back to the early 19th century to have such a scenario, and that’s not going to happen this year unless there is a statistical oddity, which would be a perfect statistical tie of 269 to 269 which could happen but you can just imagine how incredibly unlikely that is,” stated Dr Rozell.

BLUE STATES vs RED STATES

Since the 2000 United States presidential election, red states and blue states have referred to states of the United States whose voters predominantly choose either the Republican Party (red) or Democratic Party (blue) presidential candidates.

Many  states  have  populations  that  are  so  heavily  concentrated  in  the  Democratic party or the Republican party that there is really no competition in those states.

California is a heavily Democratic State, so is New York and Maryland. It is given that Joe Biden will win those states. Meanwhile Texas, Florida and Alabama are republicans. So, the candidates will spent no time campaigning in those states because it is already a given.

However there are swing  states, where  there is a competition between about five and 10 states total in each election cycle that make a difference, and that is where the candidates end up spending almost all of their time.

“So  it  ends  up  making  a  national  contest  for  the  presidency  actually  look  like  several  state-wide contests with candidates spending a lot of time talking about State and local issues in those parts of the country,” said Dr Rozell.

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Masisi to make things right with Dangote

26th October 2020

High Commissioner of the Federal Government of Nigeria to Botswana, His Excellency Umar Zainab Salisu, has challenged President Dr Mokgweetsi Masisi to move swiftly and lobby Africa’s richest man, Nigerian Billionaire, Aliko Dangote to invest in Botswana.

Speaking during a meeting with President Masisi at Office of President on Thursday Zainab Salisu said Dangote has expressed massive interest in setting up billion dollar industries in Botswana.  “We have a lot of investors who wish to come and invest in Botswana , when we look at Botswana we don’t see Botswana itself , but we are lured by its geographic location , being in the centre of Southern Africa presents a good opportunity for strategic penetration into other markets of the region,” said Salisu.

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Dow wants GBV culprits isolated

26th October 2020
Unity Dow

As murder cases and violent incidents involving couples and or lovers continue to be recorded daily, Specially Elected Member of Parliament, Dr Unity Dow has called for more funding of non-governmental organizations and accelerated action from government to come up with laws that could inhibit would-be perpetrators of crimes related to Gender Based Violence (GBV).

Just after Dr Dow had deposited her views on this subject with this reporter, a young man in Molepolole opened fire on a married woman he was having an affair with; and ended her life instantly. While it is this heinous cases that get projected to the public space, the former minister argues that the secrecy culture is keeping other real GBV cases under wraps in many spaces in the country.

The former Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation said there is GBV all the time in all kinds of places. “We have become accustomed to stories of rapes, marital rapes, defilement of children, beatings and psychological violence and even killings,” she said.

Gender-based violence is a phenomenon deeply rooted in gender inequality, Dow is worried that there is absolutely no social punishment for perpetrators; they will continue to have the same friends, jobs, wives, homes, as before. Yet another factor, she said, is that there is little or no “justice” for victims of GBV.

The renowned activist said justice for GBV victims is not just the jailing of the perpetrator. “Justice for victims means an agile, victim-friendly, accessible (time, money and procedures) and restorative justice system.”

Asked what could be leading to a spike in Gender Based Violence cases or incidents, she observed that there is no one factor to which this spike can be attributed. “The most obvious factor is stress as a result of economic distress and or poverty. Poverty makes one vulnerable and open to compromises that they would otherwise not make. For perpetrators with anger management issues, economic stress leads to lashing out to those closest to them. Another factor is the disintegration of families and family values,” she opined.

According to Dow, no government anywhere in the world is doing enough, period. “We know the places and spaces where women and girls are unsafe. We know the challenges they face in their attempts to exit those spaces and places.” The former Judge of the High Court said GBV undermines the health, dignity, security and autonomy of its victims, yet it remains shrouded in the culture of silence.

Asked what could be done to arrest GBV cases, Dow said it is critical to involve and fund civil society organizations. She observed that much of the progress done in the area of women’s human rights was during the time when Botswana had strong and funded civil society organizations.

“The funding dried up when Botswana was declared a middle-income country but unfortunately external funding was not replaced by local funding,” she acknowledged.

Further Dow said relevant government institutions must be funded and strengthened.

“Thirdly, create a society in which it is not okay to humiliate, rape, beat or kill women. You create this by responding to GBV the same way we have responded to livestock theft. We need to create agile mechanisms that hear cases quickly and allow for the removal of suspected perpetrators from their homes, work places, boards, committees, etc.”

The former Minister said the much anticipated Inter-Ministerial Task Force on Gender Based Violence will have its work cut out for it. According to Dow, GBV is not just a justice issue, it’s not just a gender issue, but rather an issue that cuts across health, education, labour, economic, housing and politics. “As long as any one believes it is someone else’s problem, we will all have the problem,” she said.

In her view, Dow said every work, educational and other place must have a GBV Policy and/or Code of Conduct. “It is important that we acknowledge that the majority of men are law-abiding. The problem is their silence, in the face of injustice,” she observed.

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