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P136 billion for Trans Kalahari Railway


Australian based Trans Kalahari railway line consultants, Aurecon, last week Thursday, handed over to Botswana Government, a preliminary assessment of the viability and modalities surrounding the development of the rail line.

The report titled ‘Trans-Kalahari Railway Preliminary financial and commercial assessment’ was prepared by Tom Frost and Ben Ellis dated 11 December 2014. This report precedes a final assessment report that will be presented in January next year.

The purpose of the assessment was to determine the commercial viability of Botswana coal mines if they were to use the envisaged Trans Kalahari Railway line where various TKR development scenarios were considered and sensitivity analysis was performed on all key inputs.

The 1477 kilometers railway line will run from Mmamabula through six coal producing regions in Botswana, to Walvis Bay, Namibia.

KEY FINDINGS
First, the rail related costs are particularly sensitive to assumptions with respect to WACC, gauge and below rail capex costs thus: The major impact policy makers can have on the project costs is through the choice of route and gauge. The optimised route is only 124km -less than 10 percent shorter- than the Government of Botswana route but the longer route is estimated to be nearly $2 per tonne higher. A move to narrow gauge would increase costs by around $3 per tonne primarily through higher above rail operating costs. Accessing cheaper investor capital would also improve the viability of the railway significantly

Secondly, the results are also very sensitive to assumptions with respect to mine operations

Last, consultants say ramp up is a major risk for project investors and miners. If all miners are not able to ramp up production from 65 to 95 Mtpa to full production in seven years costs will increase significantly  

RISK FACTOR
The major risk factor and potential upside is with respect to sale price of coal, the report says.

To achieve the target export sale quality, it is likely that miners will use underground mining techniques.

“Botswana coal typically is deposited in a number of seams at varying depths; Coal quality varies across these seams, with the higher quality coal typically lower in the deposit; At a high level two mining techniques are typically considered; Underground (bord and pillar).”

The report states that Underground mining will be more expensive at approximately $25 per tonne ROM, but miners are able to target only the best seams and it yields a higher proportion of coal per tonne of ROM lower the proportion of waste from the mining

A major disadvantage of underground mining bord and pillar mining, however is that it leaves more than 30 percent of the coal behind, as pillars and therefore a much larger resource is required for any given output level.

Open cut is cheaper at approximately $12 per tonne ROM but miners clear all seams and it produces a significant amount of waste product and low quality coal.

BENEFITS OF THE RAIL LINE
The railway line is expected to unlock the monetisation of Botswana’s coal resources, which are seen as a way to augment the depleting diamond resources that have been the mainstay of the country’s economy.
Aurecon has given the resultant capital expenditure costs at a total of USD14.2 billion, comprising USD8.6 billion for electrified rail, and USD1.9 billion for above rail, and USD3.6 billion for the port.

The “Pre-Feasibility Study of the TKR Report” prepared by Canadian firm, CPCS in 2011, contained capital and operating costs estimates for the rail and port but the new assessment by Aurecon is said to be 90 percent different due to several considerations such as: A high level review of these costs has been undertaken as a result of a number of issues: changes to the construction market since 2011; changes in operating philosophy of the rail, and proposed enhancements to the project.

“Lower capex possible however will result in higher operating costs, and overall
higher whole-of-life costs,” states the report.

There are two coal quality options that policy makers will be faced with, Option 1 being Richard Bay benchmark export which has middlings, and Option 2 which is lower than Richard Bay quality coal, little or no middlings.

Benchmark quality export coal can be produced but only if there is a domestic market for the low quality ‘middlings’ by product while producing a lower quality export coal (~5,500 c/kg) middlings production is eliminated or minimized.

Botswana possesses substantial coal deposits of 212 billion tonnes, the majority of which are low grade. Under favourable conditions, and until solar power becomes a feasible option for supplying base load electricity, this coal could be either exported or used for local regional electricity production and consumption. Electricity shortages impose a considerable constraint on economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa. This strengthens the argument for local production of coal-fired electricity, especially if regional fossil fuel supplies are integrated in a technologically adept manner to ensure economies of scale. However, coal extraction for either export or local production is environmentally costly despite advances in technology.

The alternative is for Botswana to export its coal, which would attract immediate export revenue. This is unlikely to create sustainable economic diversification, though. Botswana is landlocked and lacks available transport infrastructure to facilitate exports of such a scale, weakening the argument for this option.

The high quality export/middlings option is potentially attractive to miners if the middlings can be sold to a relatively close power station because it maximises the price achieve for export coal and minimised the proportion of output that has to be transported to a port

If all the miners took this strategy a much higher ROM output would be required if 60mtpa of export coal were to be produced and the middlings output would be in the order of 20mtpa. Current domestic Botswana electricity demand can be satisfied by under 2mpta of coal. It is not expected that the market will expand sufficiently to be able to provide a market for high volumes of middlings. If the middlings are not sold then the average cost of producing benchmark export coal will rise by 20 percent to 30 percent and become uneconomic. As a result it is anticipated that the majority of producers will blend to produce a higher volume mid range ~5,500 c/kg.

The Richards Bay has been used to benchmark potential Botswana coal products and estimate a sale price, which at the moment stands at US$ 65 per ton, a five year low. Botswana’s Export quality coal with 20 percent ash and 5500kcal/kg is estimated to sell at US$60 per ton, with expected price increases forecast for the next ten years.
 
Price variations from this benchmark are calculated based on a wide range of factors including, caloric value, sulphur content, ash and moisture levels.

A primary problem is that demand for Botswana’s coal is not guaranteed. The International Energy Agency’s (IEA) ‘Annual Energy Outlook 2014’ foresees a general shift away from carbon-intensive fuels for electricity generation, though that may largely be restricted to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries.

A 2014 statistical review by British Petroleum, the global energy giant, shows that total world coal consumption in 2013 was the equivalent of 3 826 million tonnes of oil (Mtoe), up from 2 342 Mtoe at the turn of the century. Much of this growth is primarily generated by non-OECD countries.

However, increasingly competing with coal and cohering with the IEA assessment, consumption of ‘other renewables’ was up to 279.3 Mtoe from only 51.8 Mtoe in 2000. In the absence of globally binding policies to mitigate climate change, though, the EIA still projects coal consumption to increase at an average rate of 1.8 percent per year through 2040 in non-OECD countries. Coal’s share of fuel consumption for electricity will only decline from 43 percent in 2010 to 37 percent in 2040.


Furthermore, Aurecon has identified a number of alignment improvements that will reduce the length by a total of approximately 108km, in addition to the 24km reduction resulting from the GoB enhancement between Mochudi and Kang. However, the PFS Northern Alignment, whilst environmentally and socially superior to the Southern Alignment, adds significant costs to the supply chain.

“Considering the economics of exporting coal from Botswana, it is critical that (whole-of-life) costs be minimised – optimising the alignment provides the greatest opportunity in this area,” stated the report.

DIESEL OR ELECTRIC TRAINS?
The debate around whether to employ diesel or electric locomotives on the Trans Kalahari Highway will be decided on various factors, including environmental and long term cost concerns.


Electrification of the envisaged railway line provides several additional benefits such as: Opportunity to convert coal unsuitable for export to power; Provides additional high value link to Namibia; SADC region projected to experience continued shortfall in power; Electricity generation from own resources provides significant balance of payments benefits compared to importing up to 450 million litres of diesel fuel each year; Improved supply security – not reliant on external suppliers for a critical input and cleaner, quieter operation compared with diesel locomotives


RISKS TO THE PROJECT
There remain various latent risks to the project such as :  Loss of the project to a major resource player whereby a major coal developer possibly seeks to take control of the project once the Botswana Government has invested significantly to initiate the project; Major User seeks to dictate terms favourable to them; Low coal price – non-viable project; Principal driver for the project is the commercial viability of export coal; Timing as a critical issue with the project being  delivered at a time when the market can sustainably support it; Land acquisition and negotiations and approvals, though not a concern for the majority of the alignment of the TKR, the revised alignment has a significant impact upon the viability of the project and might bring the TKR closer to populated or developed areas; Project timing with resource projects gearing up for the next wave bringing Botswana and Namibia domestic resources and workforce to develop this project.

Finally, the Walvis Bay Export Terminal development faces a risk of running slow or capability of Walvis Bay developers to meet the timeline of the TKR as it must be considered within and as part of the total export supply chain Walvis Bay Export Terminal fails to develop, the rail is unlikely to proceed.


The finalisation of the Development Plan for the Trans Kalahari Railway line will be possible after the following are completed: Finalisation of Supply Chain Infrastructure;  Master Plan mapping of clusters and connections to copper/manganese; Finalisation of the commercial model assessment for the TKR; Incorporating the commercial outcome from the mine to ship modelling; Finalisation of structure assessment and impact on Government of Botswana; Funding sources identified and the Project Memorandum being developed to engage with the market in the next stage.


The efficiency of the railway line coal supply chain is expected to be maximized by Copper resources in North West Botswana identified to boost TKR viability, Manganese ore resources in southern Botswana identified to add to the viability of the TKR, both these mineral developments (copper and manganese) will add to the diversification of Botswana’s GDP.  Mineral resources along the TKR corridor in Namibia have the ability to further improve the viability of the TKR.

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Botswana loses mineral resources to unwise investments 

24th November 2021
Botswana loses mineral resources to unwise investments

Botswana’s failure to diversify the economy away from mineral revenue could be coming back to haunt the southern African nation as there are strong signs that it is losing its mineral resources and revenue to a string of unwise investment practices. 

This is revealed in a report titled “Wealth Accounting in Botswana” released by the Ministry of Finance and Economic Development recently which shows that while the volatility in mineral resource depletion probably reflects the nature of the mining industry, which is subjected to uncertainties in the global markets for diamonds in particular; however, from 2015 to 2018, official figures show “that mineral resource depletion is rising and caching up (sic) with the rate at which capital stock is being accumulated.” 

The capital stock of a country is part of the national wealth which is reproducible, it consists of all resources which contributes to the production of goods and services. On the other hand, mineral resource depletion is the result of an excess of consumption over its production. 

While the report shows positive trends such as non-mining sector replacing the mining industry in contributing to economic growth and Botswana “increasing its overall asset base to offset the gradual depletion of its exhaustible natural resources,” it however, shows alarming trends.

Reads the report in part, “Generally, the growth of capital stock is declining overtime and it is even surprising to see that growth of capital stock at its replacement value is also declining overtime. This could also suggest the need to investigate the productive capacity of capital stock that the country invests in.”  

Furthermore, the report says, “this could suggest the need to investigate the quality of capital stock, since low quality capital stock is subjected to rapid wearing out, resulting in decline in the future economic benefits of investment.”

 Most likely, the report says, “this reflects unproductive investment by government in public infrastructure – for instance; infrastructure being over-priced, badly designed and poorly implemented and even badly selected/prioritised, with marginal investments that are unlikely to deliver significant benefits.” 

The report says Botswana’s fiscal strategy is to finance its recurrent spending through non-mining revenue, whereas development spending is intended to be financed through mineral revenues. “It is worth noting that when mineral revenue is used for development spending, it is derived from mineral resource depletion,” says the report says. It is therefore, the report says, important to track and see if the rate of depletion surpasses the rate at which capital stock is accumulated.

The report says Government allocates a significant portion of mineral revenues to development programmes, which include infrastructure development that forms part of capital stock. It says some of the factors which could be the cause of a declining rate of accumulation of capital stock could be associated with lack of prioritising spending. 

“It is indicated that during the period between 2012/13 and 2017/18, the rate at which actual spending on development programmes has been growing is less than the growth rate of budgets, indicating that underspending of budgets is an increasing problem. Underspending on development projects due to weak implementation capacity could be one cause of a declining rate of capital stock accumulation,” reveals the report. 

According to the report, as a mineral-led economy, Botswana has long aimed to transform its mineral revenues into other classes of assets, namely physical, human and financial capital. This is supported by fiscal policies in place. 

It says Botswana’s fiscal rule has been adopted in the country’s National Development Plan (NDP) 11. This rule, the report explains, plays a critical role by providing guidance on how much to consume and save to achieve macroeconomic stability in the short-run and support long-term fiscal sustainability. The report further explains that the fiscal rule states that 40 percent of mineral revenues would be saved in the form of financial assets for future generations, while the remainder would be invested in physical and human capital. 

“However, in reality, achieving the fiscal rule targets has been a challenge for the country, due to recurring budget deficits over the previous years,” says the report. It says official figures also show that the country experienced budget deficits during the entire reporting period (between 1994 and 2019).  

“Economic shocks that reduced the amount of mineral revenues, coupled with high government expenditure levels, have led to recurring budget deficits. Consequently, the government’s ability to save a portion of mineral revenues, as required by the fiscal rule, was severely compromised,” the report says.

On a positive note, the report says, Botswana’s economy generally grew at an average of 4.1 percent real GDP growth from 2012 to 2019 adding that this growth was mainly attributed to the non-mining sector, which has cushioned the country to some extent against external shocks1. For the past several years, the non-mining sector grew faster than the mining sector, with an average of 5.4 percent, the report reveals further. 

It says the slowed growth of the mining sector was due in part to the closure of BCL copper-nickel mine in 2016, which led to a reduction in total mining output in 2016/17. Continued risks associated with constrained growth in advanced as well as emerging and developing economies during this period, reduced the global demand for diamonds, which led to significant reductions in total mining contribution to GDP. On the other hand, the growth of the non-mining sector signifies the country’s efforts to diversify the economy away from minerals, the report says.  

Economic diversification, the report says, is key in natural resource-rich economies as it restricts the impact of the Dutch Disease – an economic phenomenon where the rapid development of one sector, particularly minerals, results in negative impact on the overall economy. Therefore, it says, prudent management of the country’s mineral resources and economic diversification have been a central objective of Botswana’s macro-fiscal policies.

The report notes that to date, the country has made strides in terms of achieving economic diversification goals. This, it says, is evidenced by the Trade, Hotels and Restaurant sector, which surpassed the Mining sector since 2017 onwards, in terms of contribution to value added, becoming the largest sector of the economy.

“However, in order to achieve sustainable economic growth, private sector-led growth should continue to be promoted to assist in addressing unemployment and poverty alleviation. Economic diversification also reduces macroeconomic volatility and disperse risks, such as commodity price volatility.

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Prosperity Index: Botswana improves slightly

24th November 2021
Prseident-Masisi

The 2021 Legatum Prosperity Index report indicates that Botswana ranks number 82nd globally out of 167 countries with a prosperity score of 57.1. Compared to the 2020 report, Botswana moved three places up from 85. However this is still lower than the country’s best ever score from 2011, when Botswana was ranked at number 80. 

According to the report from Legatum Institute, they had published a new report outlining a framework for natural transformation designed to help leaders as they make decisions to guide their nations on development pathway. The report said legatum Institute is a London -based think-tank with a bold vision to create a global movement of people committed to creating the pathways from poverty to prosperity and the transformation of society.

It states that Botswana performs most strongly in governance and economic quality but is weakest in natural environment, it further states that the biggest improvement compared to a decade ago came in economic equality.

The report suggests that Botswana ranks 4th in Sub-Saharan Africa out of 49 countries. The rank was based on inclusive societies which include; safety and security, personal freedom, governance and social capital. The rank also was based on open economies which includes; investment environment, enterprise conditions, infrastructure market and economic quality and lastly it was also inclusive of empowerment of the people; living conditions, health, education and natural environment.

The Legatum prosperity index report states that inclusive societies are an essential requirement for prosperity, where social and legal institution protects the fundamental freedom of individuals and their ability to flourish. Botswana is ranked 49th globally and 5th in Sub-Saharan region. On Safety and security the report states that a nation, community or society can prosper only in an environment of security and safety for its citizens, Botswana ranks 71st globally and 9th in Sub-Saharan Africa region on this category.

As for personal freedom, the report focused on basic legal rights, individual liberty, the absence of legal discrimination and the degree of social tolerance experienced in a society.  Botswana ranks 57th globally and 9th in Sub-Saharan Africa region.

Botswana is pegged at 38th place globally and 2nd in Sub-Saharan Region when it comes to governance. The Legatum report indicates that governance measures the extent to which there are checks and restraints on power and whether governments operate effectively and without corruption. It also states that the nature of a country’s governance has a material impact on its prosperity.

If there is one area where Botswana is struggling, it is social capital. The country ranks 111th globally and 24th in Sub –Saharan African region. The report states that social capital measures the personal and family relationships, social networks and the cohesion a society experiences when there is high institutional trust, and people respect and engage with one another, both of which have a direct effect on the prosperity of a country.

The report further states that under Open Economics Botswana ranks number 80 globally. The country still needs to encourage innovation and investment, promote business and trade and facilities as well as inclusive growth. Open economics includes; investment environment, enterprise conditions, infrastructure and market access, economic quality.

Botswana ranks 5th in Sub-Saharan African region and 72nd globally in investment environmental which measures the extent to which investments are protected adequately through the existence of property rights, investor protection and contract enforcement. The Prosperity Index report states that, the more a legal system protects investments, for example through property rights, the more that investment can drive economic growth.

The Legatum prosperity index ranked Botswana’s enterprise conditions 10th in Sub-Saharan Africa region and 82nd globally. It explains enterprise conditions as measures of how easy it is for businesses to start, compete and expand.

Botswana ranks 6th in Sub-Saharan African region and 105th globally in infrastructure and market access. The Legatum report explains that market access and infrastructure enables trade and inhibitors on the flow of goods and services between businesses hence economic growth.

Economic quality has been explained by the report as a measure of how robust the economy is as well as how the economy is equipped to generate wealth. The country ranks at the apex, 1st in sub-Saharan Africa region and 53rd globally.

The Legatum prosperity report indicated that states could generate prosperity through empowered people. Empowered people considers living conditions, health, education and natural environment. Botswana ranked 116th globally and 44th in the African region when it comes to empowering its people.

Living conditions as one of the components under empowered people, Botswana ranked 7th in sub-Saharan region and 114th globally. The institute indicated that Living Conditions measures whether a reasonable quality of life is extended to the whole population, which is necessary for a nation to be prosperous

Another component under empowered people is health. According to the institute, the coverage and accessibility of effective healthcare, combined with behaviors that sustain a healthy lifestyle, are critical to both individual and national prosperity. Botswana ranks 17th in the Sub-Saharan region and 131st globally.

Botswana ranks 5th in Sub-Saharan region when it comes to Education and ranks spot 101 globally. According to the report, a better-educated population also leads to greater civic engagement and improved social outcomes — such as better health and lower crime rates.

Lastly Botswana ranks very low on aspect of natural environment, pegged at number 116 globally and 44th in the sub-Saharan African region. The Legatum institute explains this category capturing parts of the physical environment that have a direct effect on people in their daily lives and changes that might impact the prosperity of future generations. The report further reads, “A well-managed natural environment benefits a nation by yielding crops, material for construction, wildlife and food, and sources of energy, while clean air leads to a higher quality of living for all”.

In conclusion, the 2021 prosperity index reveals that sub-Saharan Africa has been the bright light in the world of stagnation in prosperity. With its modest but consistent progress, despite the deterioration in the continent’s safety and security. “The prosperity of 40 out of 49 countries improved over a decade, and the rate of extreme poverty has dropped across the region from 49.9 %to 42.3% of the population, much of the progress has to be driven by steady improvements in Health and in infrastructure” the report said. The Legatum Institute’s 2021 Prosperity Index has found that in Sub-Saharan Africa “prosperity has improved for the 11th year in a row” with the rate of extreme poverty falling from 49.9% to 42.3%.

Mauritius continues to prove itself as a beacon of prosperity in Africa, making it to the top 50 of seven of the index pillars. Second in the region Seychelles ranked number 50, Cabo Verde at number 80, Botswana 82nd, South Africa 85th and last both in Africa and the entire report South Sudan at 167th.

In her Foreword of the report, Baroness Philippa Stroud, CEO of the Legatum Institute states that; “Prosperity is built by deliberate choices to develop a society that works for everyone — an inclusive society, with a strong social contract that protects the fundamental liberties and security of each individual. It is driven by an open economy that harnesses the ideas and talents of the people of a nation.

This in turn builds an enabling environment for all to flourish by fulfilling their unique potential and playing their part in strengthening their families, communities, and nations. A prosperous society is not just about what we’re getting, but about who we are becoming — individually and together. The Prosperity Index acts as a spotlight on what builds prosperity or conversely what causes poverty.

It tracks the rise and fall of prosperity over time and captures the outcomes of decisions that either build or destroy prosperity. When we look at what is happening across the nations of the world, this year’s Legatum Prosperity Index shows that global prosperity is stagnating. However, this stagnation is not simply a result of the recent impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.”

Globally, the 2021 Legatum Prosperity Index reveals that “prosperity has plateaued for the second year running” and this is the result of weakening personal freedoms, specifically Freedom of Speech and Freedom of Assembly.

The Index identifies that whilst “COVID-19 has undoubtedly had a short-term impact on prosperity”, the pandemic has not been solely responsibly. “The past decade has seen the increasing suppression of the core liberties which underpin true prosperity.”

According to the 2021 Index, the “key area of concern”, where this suppression is taking place, is the “ongoing deterioration in political accountability and freedom of speech and assembly in most regions of the world”. In the last decade 72% of all nations have seen a decline in freedom of speech.

The report says in 100 countries around the world both freedom of expression and freedom of assembly deteriorated over the last decade. This has significant implications for global prosperity.

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Inflation up again, rose to 8.8 percent October 

24th November 2021
Inflation

Botswana’s headline inflation took a turn back into the upward trajectory in the month of October after a decline in September. Figures released by Statistics Botswana on Monday reveal that  headline inflation rose from 8.4 percent in September to 8.8 percent in October 2021, which is above the upper bound of the Bank of Botswana‘s medium-term objective range of 3 – 6 percent.

This is also substantially higher than the 2.2 percent recorded in the month October last year 2020.  The increase in inflation between September and October 2021 mainly reflects the upward adjustment in domestic fuel prices in October 2021, as reflected by the annual price changes for Transport (from 17.5 to 19.3 percent).

Meanwhile, there were partially offsetting movements in the annual price changes for some categories of goods and services, while for a few, prices remained stable.  Annual price changes for the following categories of goods and services also increased: Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages (from 6.4 to 6.8 percent); Restaurants and Hotels (from 3.8 to 4.1 percent); Clothing and Footwear (from 3.7 to 3.8 percent); Health (from 2.8 to 2.9 percent); and Miscellaneous Goods and Services (from 7.3 to 7.4 percent).

However, the upward pressure on inflation was partially offset by inflation falling with respect to: Communication (from 1.5 to 1 percent); Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco (from 9 to 8.8 percent); and Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels (from 8.3 to 8.2 percent). Inflation remained unchanged for: Furnishing, Household Equipment and Routine Maintenance (5 percent); Recreation and Culture (4.3 percent); and Education (2.8 percent).

Similarly, the 16 percent trimmed mean inflation and inflation excluding administered prices increased from 8 percent and 7.1 percent to 8.2 percent and 7.2 percent, in the same period. The inflation rates for regions between September 2021 and October 2021 revealed that the Rural Villages’ inflation rate stood at 8.6 percent in October, showing a rise of 0.6 of a percentage point on the September rate of 8.0 percent.

The Urban Villages’ inflation rate was 9.0 percent in October compared to the September rate of 8.6 percent, while the Cities & Towns inflation rate rose by 0.3 of a percentage point, from 8.4 percent in September to 8.7 percent In October.

The national Consumer Price Index went up by 0.9 percent in October 2021, from 112.3 registered in September 2021 to 113.3. The Rural Villages’ index recorded a growth of 1.1 percent, from 111.1 in September to 112.4 in October.

The Urban Villages’ index advanced from 112.9 in September to 113.8 in October 2021, a rise of 0.9 percent, whereas the Cities & Towns’ Index moved from 112.4 to 113.3, an increase of 0.8 percent. The group indices were generally moving at a steady pace between September and October 2021, recording changes of less than 1.0 percent, except the Transport group index, which recorded 3.0 percent.

The Transport group index recorded a rise of 3.0 percent, from 114.0 in September to 117.5 in October. This was attributed to a growth in the constituent section index of Operation of Personal Transport (5.2 percent) and purchase of Vehicles (1.2 percent). The increase in the Operation of Personal Transport section index was attributed to the rise in retail pump prices for petrol (95) by P0.71 and diesel (50ppm) by P0.55 per litre, which effected on the 8th of October 2021.

The Alcoholic Beverages &Tobacco index group registered a growth of 0.5 percent, from 120.1 in September to 120.8 in October 2021. This was due to an increase in the constituent section index of Alcoholic Beverages (0.6 percent) and Tobacco (0.3 percent).

The Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages group index moved from 113.5 to 114.0, recording a rise of 0.4 percent. This was owing to the general increase in the constituent section indices, notably; Oils & Fats (1.8 percent), Vegetables (0.9 percent), Sugar, Jam, Honey, Chocolate & Confectionery (0.7 percent) and Food not elsewhere classified (0.7 percent).

The Clothing and Footwear group registered a rise of 0.4 percent, from 107.4 in September to 107.8 in October 2021. The increase was attributed to the general increase in the constituent section indices. The Restaurants & Hotels index group registered an increase of 0.4 percent, from 109.1 in September to 109.6 in October 2021. The rise was due to the rise of the constituent section index of Restaurants, Cafes and the Like by 0.5 percent.

The All-Tradeables index was 114.7 in October 2021, recording a rise of 1.4 percent from 113.0 in September 2021. The Imported Tradeables Index increased from 112.5 in September to 114.6 in October 2021, a rise of 1.9 percent.

The Domestic Tradeables Index realised an increase of 0.3 percent from 114.4 in September to 114.7 in October. The Non-Tradeables Index moved from 111.4 in September to 111.5 in October, an increase of 0.1 percent. The All-Tradeables inflation rate was 12.0 percent in October 2021, recording a rise of 0.7 of a percentage.

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