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Botswana and the ‘shortage’ curse

I believe that our national development planning as it stands now is totally inadequate and incompetent.  What we have as a National Development PIan is a ten year partisan plan that is coordinated by the Ministry of Finance and Development Planning for the ruling party. 

It is however, interesting that the last plan (the tenth plan) took into account Vision 2016 goals, which in my view is a step in the right direction although admittedly Vision 2016 is not a national plan but at least it is a national vision developed by the nation for the nation.  However, this vision cannot be achieved without a supporting long term development plan. This submission attempts to encourage the nation to move towards that direction.


My submission is that the National Development Plan should be a 20 to 50 year long-term plan developed by the nation for the nation through a process similar to the Gaolathe commission that developed Vision 2016. This plan should be non partisan, inclusive and comprehensive.  


The ten or perhaps five year plan should be drawn from the overall plan by the ruling party and provide the details, the priorities, the resources and the implementation plans to be managed by the government of the day. The government performance can then be judged on how well their plan is aligned to and achieves the national goals as provided in the overall Long-term National Plan.


The Ministry of Finance and Development Planning is currently charged with the responsibility ‘to coordinate national development planning, to mobilise and prudently manage available financial and economic resources. Furthermore the Ministry is responsible for the formulation of economic and financial policies for sustainable economic development’.  


For me, the Nation Development Plan and Sustainable Development functions should be removed from the Ministry of Finance for effectiveness and focused delivery as suggested by UDC in their manifesto.  The separate Ministry will be responsible for coordination and will require a technocrat who will be able to draw the best experts from across the political divide to come up with a well researched non partisan long term National Development Plan and Sustainable Development agenda. The same ministry should monitor and report to the nation as well as periodically update the plan using the same non political entity that developed the plan.


This Long-Term National and Sustainable Development Plan should perhaps adopt Vision 2016 as its inspiration and then incorporate the following core areas amongst others in the plan;


Population growth projections for the period
Land  available for farming, residential,  industrial, tourism, protection etc
Education and skills development plan
Known mineral resources, potential and development plan
Rainfall patterns, underground water resources and impacts of climate change
Business potential and planning in manufacturing, food processing, leather products, mining, mineral beneficiation, pharmaceuticals, support services,  etc
Targeted  and sustainable  ‘win-win’ foreign investment planning
Projected national food requirements and planning
Projected national health services requirements planning
Possible sources of  supporting income and projections


The first thing that informs this plan must be a comprehensive population growth projection for the planned period for each town and village. There should also be a planned economic activity to support the growth and sustainability of each community in order to limit migration to urban centres.


The land as a non renewable resource is a very important factor that any planning must take into account for sustainable development. All the listed areas above and any others to be identified will need to be comprehensibly and systematically studied and detailed.


I posit that almost all the major problems and serious challenges we currently face as a country are due to lack of long term national planning.  I have said before in another submission that, ‘failing to plan is planning to fail’. Albert Einstein also said, ‘doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result is madness’.  We have failed to plan and therefore the many shortages we face today are our own creation;


Shortage of Land
Shortage of Power
Shortage of Water
Shortage of requisite Skills for industry
Shortage of Classrooms
Shortage of teachers
Shortage of Nurses
Shortage of Doctors  etc

I have no doubt that all these endemic shortages which are now a source of national embarrassment are largely a result of lack of long term planning.  

We cannot have shortage of land in Botswana, when our population of just over two million can fit in half of Johannesburg City which has a population of 4.3 million.  Our land area is the same as that of France that has a population of over 65 million. So we cannot without shame talk of land shortage in Botswana.

We cannot have endemic shortage of water in Botswana as we do when we have an annual average of up to 450 mm across the country.  A country like Chile has only an average of 5 mm across their country, with only few areas having about 200 mm of rainfall. Despite this Chile has a thriving agricultural and mining industry both of which are water intensive.  Israel and Dubai are other examples of countries with thriving agriculture in dry deserts.

In addition to the rainfall that we have, we have the perennial Chobe River and extensive underground water resources we should be tapping into. Why are we not having a thriving agricultural industry especially around the Chobe and eastern regions of our country?  See our annual rainfall distribution in the attached map below.

How can we have power shortage in Botswana when we have over 200 billion tons of unexploited coal resources? How can we have power shortage when our solar irradiation intensity is one of the highest in the world? Botswana annual solar irradiation is over 260 W/m2, while Germany who produces about 30 gigawatts from solar energy has only an average of 125 W/m2.  

How can we have power shortage when we have one of the greatest potential for biomass energy in the world because of our large uninhabited land mass? How can we have power shortage when we have accumulating wastage that can be converted into power, at the same time cleaning our environment and opening up the land for other uses?

How can we have shortage of requisite skills when we have graduates roaming the streets? How can we have shortage of skills when we have 30 % of our population unemployed? I know the official figure is 17 % but many analysts believe this figure is closer to 30 %.

How can we have shortage of classrooms and teachers when we have shortage of skills for the economy?  

How can you build hospitals and clinics when you do not have doctors and nurses?  Do you know that we have trained more than 100 doctors at the taxpayer’s expense and allowed them to go and work in Ireland and other countries?  How can you do that when you have shortage?  Should we not have kept these doctors at home until at least they have paid up their dues?  

Tebogo Toteng wrote in his column on the weekend post of 7-13 February that ‘the future belongs to those who plan’ this is true for individuals, it is true for businesses and it is even truer for countries.

In conclusion our long term planning is non existent.  We must introspect without shame and correct ourselves.  The leadership of this country has failed the nation, but it is not too late to change and develop a coordinated non partisan long term national plan that reflects the long term vision of our country. We have the national ideals of vision 2016 that can be used as rallying point.

Bernard Busani
E-mail: bernard.busani@gmail.com:   cell: 71751440

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Opinions

Internal party-democracy under pressure

21st June 2022

British novelist, W. Somerset Maugham once opined: “If a nation values anything more than freedom, it will lose its freedom; and the irony of it is that if it is comfort or money that it values more, it will lose that too.”

The truism in these words cannot be underestimated, especially when contextualizing against the political developments in Botswana. We have become a nation that does not value democracy, yet nothing represent freedom more than democracy. In fact, we desire, and value winning power or clinging to power more than anything else, even if it harms the democratic credentials of our political institutions. This is happening across political parties — ruling and opposition.

As far as democracy is concerned, we are regressing. We are becoming worse-off than we were in the past. If not arrested, Botswana will lose its status as among few democratic nations in the Africa. Ironically, Botswana was the first country in Africa to embrace democracy, and has held elections every five years without fail since independence.

We were once viewed as the shining example of Africa. Those accolades are not worth it any more. Young democracies such as South Africa, with strong institutions, deserves to be exalted. Botswana has lost faith in democracy, and we will pay a price for it. It is a slippery slope to dictatorship, which will bring among other excess, assault on civil liberties and human rights violations.

Former President, Festus Mogae once stated that Botswana’s democracy will only become authentic, when a different party, other than the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) wins elections, and when the President of such party is not from Serowe.

Although many may not publicly care to admit, Mogae’s assertion is true. BDP has over the years projected itself as a dyed-in-the-wool proponent of democracy, but the moment its stay in power became threatened and uncertain, it started behaving in a manner that is at variance with democratic values.  This has been happening over the years now, and the situation is getting worse by the day.

Recently, the BDP party leadership has been preaching compromise and consensus candidates for 2024 general elections. Essentially, the leadership has lost faith in the Bulela Ditswe dispensation, which has been used to selected party candidates for council and parliament since 2003. The leadership is discouraging democracy because they believe primary elections threaten party unity. It is a strange assertion indeed.

Bulela Ditswe was an enrichment of internal party democracy in the sense that it replaced the previous method of selection of candidates known as Committee of 18, in which a branch committee made of 18 people endorsed the representatives. While it is true that political contest can divide, the ruling party should be investing in political education and strengthening in its primary elections processes. Democracy does not come cheap or easy, but it is valuable.

Any unity that we desire so much at the expense of democracy is not true unity. Like W. Somerset Maugham said, democracy would be lost in the process, and ultimately, even the unity that was desired would eventually be lost too. Any solution that sacrifice democracy would not bring any results in the long run, except misery.

We have seen that also in opposition ranks. The Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC) recently indicated that its incumbent Members of Parliament (MPs) should not be challenged for their seats. While BDP is sacrificing democracy to stay in power, UDC is sacrificing democracy to win power. It is a scary reality given the fact that both parties – ruling and opposition — have embraced this position and believe democracy is the hindrance to their political ambitions.

These current reality points to one thing; our political parties have lost faith in democracy. They desire power more than, the purpose of power itself. It is also a crisis of leadership across the political divide, where we have seen dissenting views being met with persecution. We have seen perverting of political process endorsed by those in echelons of power to manipulate political outcomes in their favour.

Democracy should not be optional, it should be mandatory. Any leader proposing curtailing of democracy should be viewed with suspicion, and his adventures should be rejected before it is too late. Members of political parties, as subscribers of democracy, should collectively rise to the occasion to save their democracy from self-interest that is becoming prevalent among Botswana political parties.

The so-called compromise candidates, only benefits the leadership because it creates comforts for them. But for members, and for the nation, it is causing damage by reversing the gains that have been made over the years. We should reject leaders who only preach democracy in word, but are hesitant to practice it.

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Opinions

The Big Deal About Piracy

21st June 2022
piracy

Piracy of all kinds continues to have a massive impact on the global creative industry and the economies of the countries where it thrives.

One of the biggest misconceptions around piracy is that an individual consumer’s piracy activities, especially in a market the size of Botswana’s, is only a drop in the pool of potential losses to the different sectors of the economy piracy affects.

When someone sitting in Gaborone, Botswana logs onto an illegal site to download King Richard online, they don’t imagine that their one download will do anything to the production house’s pocket or make a dent in the actors’ net worth. At best, the sensitivity towards this illegal pirating activity likely only exists when contemplating going about pirating a local musician’s music or a short film produced locally.

The ripple effects of piracy at whatever scale reach far beyond what the average consumer could ever imagine. Figures released by software security and media technology company, Irdeto, show that users in five major African territories made approximately 17,4 million total visits to the top 10 identified piracy sites on the internet.

The economic impact of this on the creative industry alone soars to between 40 and 97.1 billion dollars, according a 2022 Dataprot study. In addition, they estimate that “illegally streamed copyrighted content consumes 24% of global bandwidth”.

As Botswana’s creative industry remains relatively slight on the scale of comparison to industries such as Nollywood and Nilewood where the creative industry contributes a huge proportion to West and East Africa’s respective GDPs, that does not imply that piracy activities in Botswana do not have a similar impact on our economy and the ability of our creative industry to grow.

When individuals make decisions to illegally consume content via internet streaming sites they believe they are saving money for themselves in the name of enjoying content they desire to consume. Although this is a personal choice that remains the prerogative of the consumer, looking beyond the fact that streaming on illegal content sites is piracy, the ripple effect of this decision also has an endless trail of impact where funds which could be used to grow the local creative industry through increased consumption, and revenue which would otherwise be fed back into Botswana’s economy are being diverted.

“Why can’t our local creative industry grow?” “Why don’t we see more home-grown films and shows in Botswana?” are questions constantly posed by those who consume television content in Botswana. The answer to this lies largely in the fact that Botswana’s local content needs an audience in order for it to grow. It needs support from government and entities which are in a position to fund and help the industry scale greater heights.

Any organisational body willing to support and grow the local creative industry needs to exist and operate in an economy which can support its mandates. Content piracy is a cycle that can only be alleviated when consumers make wiser decisions around what they consume and how.

This goes beyond eradicating piracy activities in so far as television content is concerned. This extends to the importation and trade in counterfeit goods, resale of goods and services not intended for resale across the border, outside its jurisdiction, and more. All of these activities stunt the growth of an economy and make it nearly impossible for industries and sectors to propel themselves to places where they can positively impact society and reinvest into the country’s economy.

So what can be done to turn the tide here in Botswana in order to see our local production houses gain the momentum required to produce more, license more and expand their horizons? While those who enforce the law continue to work towards minimizing piracy activities, it’s imperative that as consumers we work to make their efforts easier by being mindful of how our individual actions play a role in preventing the success of our local creative networks and our economy’s growth.

Whether you are pirating a Hollywood Blockbuster, illegally streaming a popular Motswana artist’s music, or smuggling in an illegal decoder to view content restricted to South Africa only, your actions have an impact on how we as a nation will make our mark on the global landscape with local creative productions. Thembi Legwaila is Corporate Affairs Manager, MultiChoice Botswana

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Opinions

Our Strength is our Unity

18th March 2022
Craig-Cloud

Putin Chose War.  We Remain United with Ukraine.

U.S. Ambassador Craig L. Cloud

This is a dangerous moment for Europe and for freedom-loving people around the world.  By launching his brutal assault on the people of Ukraine, Vladimir Putin has also committed an assault on the principles that uphold global peace and democracy.  But the people of Ukraine are resilient.

They’ve had a democracy for decades, and their bravery is inspiring the world.  The United States, together with our Allies and partners across the globe, will continue to support the Ukrainian people as they defend their country.  By choosing to pay for a war instead of investing in the needs of Russians, Putin’s invasion of Ukraine will be a strategic failure for the Kremlin and ravage the future of the Russian people.

When the history of this era is written, it will show that Putin’s choice to launch an unprovoked, unjust, and premeditated attack left the West more unified and Russia exponentially weaker.

United in Our Response

This will not end well for Vladimir Putin.  Together, the United States and our Allies and partners are taking action to hold Russia accountable.  As a result of unprecedented global sanctions coordination, the United States, the United Kingdom, the European Union, Japan, and Canada have removed selected Russian banks from the SWIFT messaging system and imposed restrictive measures on the Russian Central Bank.

President Biden announced sweeping financial sanctions and stringent export controls that will damage Russia’s economy, financial system, and access to cutting-edge technology.  After Putin began his invasion, the ruble hit its weakest point in history, and the Russian stock market plunged.

Along with the United Kingdom and European Union, the United States imposed sanctions on the architects of this war, including Putin himself.

By moving in close coordination with a powerful coalition of Allies and partners representing more than half of the global economy, we have magnified the impact of our actions to impose maximum costs on Putin and his regime.  In response to Putin’s war of choice, we will limit Russia’s ability to do business in U.S. dollars.

We will stunt Russia’s ability to finance and grow its military.  We will impair Russia’s ability to compete in the global economy.  And we are prepared to do more.

In addition to economic penalties, this week President Biden authorized an additional $1 billion over the $350 million of security assistance he recently approved, and a $650 million in 2021, to immediately help Ukraine defend itself, bringing America’s total security assistance to Ukraine over the past year to $2 billion.

We also stand ready to defend our NATO Allies.  President Biden has coordinated with Allied governments to position thousands of additional forces in Germany and Poland as part of our commitment to NATO’s collective defense.

He authorized the deployment of ground and air forces already stationed in Europe to NATO’s eastern and southeastern flanks:  Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, and Romania.  Our Allies have also added their own forces and capabilities to ensure our collective defense.  There should be no doubt about the readiness of the greatest military Alliance in the history of the world:  NATO is more united than ever.

The United States has also coordinated with major oil-producing and consuming countries to underscore our common interest in securing global energy supplies.  We are working with energy companies to surge their capacity to supply energy to the market, particularly as prices increase.

Putin’s Unprovoked and Premeditated War

This was an attack that Vladimir Putin has planned for a long time.  He methodically moved more than 150,000 troops and military equipment to Ukraine’s border.  He moved blood supplies into position and built field hospitals, demonstrating his intentions all along.

He rejected every good-faith effort by the United States and our Allies and partners to address his fabricated security concerns and to avoid needless conflict and human suffering by engaging in diplomacy and dialogue.

Putin executed his playbook exactly as we had warned he would do.  We saw Russia’s proxies increase their shelling in the Donbas.  We saw the Russian government launch cyber-operations against Ukraine.  We saw staged political theater in Moscow and heard outlandish and baseless claims made about Ukraine in an attempt to justify Russia’s aggression.

Russia continues to justify its military aggression by falsely claiming the need to stop “genocide” in Ukraine – despite there being no evidence that genocide was occurring there.  We saw Russia use these tactics before when they invaded Ukraine in 2014 and Georgia in 2008.

And then, at almost the very same moment the United Nations Security Council was meeting to stand up for Ukraine’s sovereignty and forestall disaster, Putin launched his invasion in violation of international law.  Missiles began to rain down, striking historic cities across Ukraine.  Then came air raids, columns of tanks, and battalions of troops, all riding a renewed wave of disinformation and outright lies.

We have been transparent with the world.  We declassified our intelligence about Russia’s plans so there could be no confusion and no cover up.  Putin is the aggressor.  Putin chose this war.  And now his people will bear the consequences of his decision to invest in war rather than in them.

Transatlantic Unity and Resolve Stronger Than Ever

Putin’s goal of dividing the West has failed.  In the face of one of the most significant challenges to European security and democratic ideals since World War II, the United States and our Allies and partners have joined together in solidarity.  We have united, coordinating intensively to engage as one with Russia and Ukraine, provided assistance to Ukraine, developed a broad response, and reaffirmed our commitment to NATO.

Putin has failed to divide us.  Putin has failed to undermine our shared belief in the fundamental right of sovereign nations to choose their destiny and their allies.  And Putin will fail to erase the proud nation of Ukraine.

The next few days, weeks, and months will be incredibly difficult for the people of Ukraine.  Putin has unleashed great suffering on them.  But the Ukrainian people have known 30 years of independence, and they have repeatedly shown they will not tolerate anyone who tries to take their country backwards.

The world is watching this conflict closely, and if Russian forces commit atrocities, we will explore all international mechanisms that could be used to bring those responsible – whether members of the military or their civilian leadership – to account.

Putin’s aggression against Ukraine will cost Russia profoundly, both economically and strategically.  The Russian people deserve better from their government than the immense cost to their future that this invasion has precipitated.

Liberty, democracy, and human dignity are forces far more powerful than fear and oppression.  In the contest between democracy and autocracy, between sovereignty and subjugation, make no mistake:  Freedom will prevail.

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