Connect with us
Advertisement

Investors advised to Buy BTCL stock

Investment Analysts at Motswedi securities have strongly recommend investors to BUY the stock during the IPO and also subsequent to listing as Botswana Telecommunications Corporation Limited (BTCL) provides significant growth potential to investors.

BTCL has opened an Initial Public Offering (IPO) of 462mn shares at a price of P1 per share with a minimum offer of 1,000 shares. The offer is expected to close on Friday, the 4th of March 2016 with the shares expected to list on the Botswana Stock Exchange (BSE) on the 8th of April 2016.

“With a listing PE of 5.5x, which is way below the market average PE of 14.7x, the share price has more scope for upside potential. We are targeting a price of 180 thebe for the stock, using a conservative valuation method. This gives an 80% upside potential against the IPO price of 100 thebe per share,” writes Gary Juma and Tlotlo Ramalepa who had embarked on a research project to appraise investors on the viability of the BTCL stock.

WHERE IS THE GROWTH STORY?

According to Juma and Ramalepa, the BTCL growth strategy is centred on leveraging its fixed, mobile and convergent products and services potential. The strategy is intended to leverage BTCL’s unique market position as the only fixed and mobile network operator in Botswana by creating competitive advantages for the company through the provision of traditional fixed and mobile broadband, information and content capabilities.

The two investment analysts further state that the BTCL’s strategic plan focuses on:
• Leveraging BTCL’s unique market position in Botswana, as the sole fixed and mobile operator, combining its mobile and fixed networks coverage, to smartly package unique fixed and mobile value propositions.

Moving BTCL Wholesale to higher value managed services, by offering managed (hosted) data services to mitigate the threat posed by direct competition with BoFiNet and others entering the managed data services market; • Defending the existing business through sophisticated bundling and packaging of traditional products, promoting BTCL tariffs, which are the lowest in Botswana, and marketing the BTCL network presence, and increased focus on customer satisfaction.
• controlling costs through business transformation by unifying networks and minimising the IT platforms estate, ensuring flexibility and agility in products and service offerings.
•innovating and growing revenues through building strategic alliances and partnerships, so as to improve levels of innovation, research and development capabilities within BTCL;

THE DOWNSIDE…

Increased competition in the telecoms sector within the country as a result of market liberalisation and this has led in some instances BTCL losing some of its key clients to competitors.

The business is a high volume business with profitability very sensitive to variation in margins. This is because, BoFinet determines the margins available to network operators and in some cases BTCL may not be able to pass on to the retailer any margin compression enforced by BoFinet and this will eat on margins and profitability.
However, Juma and Ramalepa point out that BTCL has a profitable and strong business model.  They opine that the company has been able to increase its revenue from P1.0bn in 2011 to P1.47bn in 2015, while profit after tax has risen from P177mn in 2011 to a high of P273.6mn in 2013 before falling to P146.8mn in 2015.
“BTCL has been paying a very good dividend of 5.66thebe per share in 2011, 7.11thebe in 2012 and 50.68thebe per share in 2014, reflecting a healthy cash flow position and profitability.”

WHY INVEST IN BTCL

Juma and Ramalepa demonstrate that BTCL has a number of strengths and competences which translate to certain key advantages over other players in the Botswana communications sector.

They first show a measure of the BTCL as a Profitable Company : “BTCL has a profitable and strong business model. The company has been able to increase its revenue from P1.0bn in 2011 to P1.47bn in 2015, while profit after tax has risen from P177mn in 2011 to a high of P273.6mn in 2013 before falling to P146.8mn in 2015.”
BUSINESS MODEL

The two analysts share on the BTCL business model: “BTCL offers its products and services through two operating business units namely: a. BTCL Wholesale – the wholesale arm of BTCL’s business; and b. FMC Organisation – which combines beMobile, Broadband and Fixed into a single business unit.”
Wider Network footprint

Juma and Ramalepa write that BTCL through its BeMobile unit has gained significant competitive advantage in the mobile domain, BTCL has a PTO Licence issued by the regulator, BOCRA. It is one of the three local PTO Licence operators (with the others being Mascom Wireless and Orange Botswana).

“BTCL is, however, the only PTO Licence holder operating both the traditional fixed and mobile networks. The BeMobile unit has gained significant competitive advantage in the mobile domain, particularly in remote areas because of its extensive mobile coverage. This network strength resulted in a 65% market share in fixed broadband and data services, 90% in fixed network voice services and 17% in mobile connections,” they state.  

According to Juma and Ramalepa, the mobile market share is notable in so far as it has been achieved within seven years against two very prominent and well established brands. No other operator has assets deployed as widely across both fixed and mobile services space as BTCL.
Vodafone Partnership

According to the Motswedi Securities analysts, BTCL has entered into a strategic partnership with one of the world’s leading communications services providers, Vodafone.

They state that this partnership will enable Vodafone and BTCL the option to cooperate and deploy certain products and services (including third party products and services); enabling BTCL to gain access to the Vodafone knowledge bank; and permitting the parties to carry out capability assessments and co-operate on procurement for the benefit of BTCL in Botswana for a period of three years.

Juma and Ramalepa argue that the existence of BTCL’s copper access network means BTCL is the only operator with capacity and capability to offer ADSL services. They posit that this affords BTCL a market opportunity to offer voice and ADSL services through the copper network to its clients. With the advent of new technologies such as Ethernet over Copper BTCL will in future be able to offer improved broadband internet speeds over its copper network.

BTCL IN BRIEF

“BTCL was established in 1980 to provide, develop, operate and manage Botswana’s national and international telecommunications services. Since then, BTC has evolved to become one of the leading providers in Botswana of voice telephony (both fixed and mobile), as well as national and international internet, data services, virtual private networks and customer equipment to the nation. Part of the Company’s growth and success stems from the acquisition of the PTO Licence in 2007, which was one of the three licences issued by BOCRA (then the Botswana Telecommunications Authority).

The PTO Licence permits BTCL to offer services of any kind, using any technology, connected with public telecommunications. BTCL is the only PTO Licence holder operating both the traditional fixed and mobile networks,” shares Juma and Ramalepa in their research document.

‘IPO Ya Rona Rotlhe’

Juma and Ramalepa state that BTCL was identified in the Privatisation Master Plan of 2005 as a candidate for privatisation. To facilitate BTCL’s privatisation process,

Parliament, in 2008, passed the Transition Act to enable Government to convert BTC from a statutory body to a limited liability company under the Companies Act. Government further adopted a privatisation model for BTCL in 2010. The key features of the Privatisation Model include, amongst others, the following:
44% of BTCL’s equity would be made available for ownership by Batswana via the BSE;

Government would retain 51% equity, together with the Trans- Kalahari Optic Fibre Network, the Gaborone-Francistown Loop and other backbone infrastructure assets and contracts which would be placed under a separate entity, wholly owned by Government.

Prior to Listing, 5% of the total equity of BTCL would be allocated to BTCL’s citizen employees and an Employee Share Trust will be established to manage and hold these shares for the employees.

Trading of shares in the BSE would be permitted amongst Citizen investors only;

WHY LIST?

Provide an opportunity to Batswana, who have supported BTCL over the years.

Allow Batswana to share in the growth and profitability of BTCL.

Raise the company profile and investor awareness of BTCL locally.

Raise equity capital for the company.

Enable government to privatise BTCL in line with the Privatisation Master Plan of 2005.
 

WHO CAN INVEST?

The Offer is available only to:

a. Natural persons who are citizens of Botswana.
b. Corporate entities registered or operating in Botswana which are wholly citizen owned.
c. Unincorporated associations, partnerships, and investment funds (whether managed directly or by institutional investors registered in Botswana) which are wholly Citizen owned.
d. Trusts whose ultimate beneficiaries are all Botswana citizens.
e. Local Pension Funds managed by institutional investors registered in Botswana.

Continue Reading

Business

Debswana Jwaneng underground project to cost P65 billion

27th April 2021
Debswana

Jwaneng Mine— by far the world’s richest diamond mine is not about stop any time soon — plans are underway to ensure more gem stones are birthed from the Prince of mines.

Owners and operators of the mine, Debswana, a 50-50 De Beers- Botswana Government joint venture intends to spend over P65 billion to breathe life into the mine beyond the current Cut 9 project. Cut 9, which is currently transitioning from outsourced contractor to in-house operation, will take Jwaneng to 2036.

Debswana, by far one of world’s leading rough diamond producer revealed in a media briefing on Friday morning that an ambitious project to transition Jwaneng from open pit mining to underground is on the cards.

The company top brass noted that studies are underway to guide this massive project. These entail desktop studies of available geoscience information, hydrogeological surveys to appreciate the underground stratigraphy, water table levels, geotechnical composition and of course kimberlites geology.

Lynette Armstrong, Debswana Acting Managing Director said the company will invest all the necessary resources required for prefeasibility studies to determine the best model for undertaking the multibillion Pula Project. “This is a complex project that will require high capital investment over a period of years, advanced skills and cutting edge technological advancements,” she said.

Armstrong stated that underground mining projects have been undertaken and successful delivered before. “It will not be a completely new thing, we will  benchmark from other operations and learn how they have done it, we have a database of former BCL employees who worked for that underground mine , we will source skills locally,  where there are no required skills in country we will source from outside,” Armstrong indicated.

The Acting MD further explained that the company is getting ready for the highly anticipated mega project in different key aspects required for the successful implementation. “We have seconded some of our employees and top talents to benchmark in our sister operations within De Beers Group, to prepare and ready our workforce mind-sets and also acquire the necessary skills,” she said.
In terms of funding, Lynnette Armstrong revealed that Debswana would look into available options to fully resource the project.

“We have been discussing and exploring other available avenues that we could use to fund our life expansion projects, debt financing is one of them, it will obviously have to go through all our governance structures, internally and all the way to the board for approval,” she said.

Debswana Head of Projects revealed that an estimated cost of P65 billion would be required for the entire project from feasibility studies, engineering and scope development, construction, to drilling, sinking of shafts and all the way to transitioning, extracting the ore and feeding the processing plants. Meanwhile the process of transitioning Jwaneng Cut 9 project from Majwe Mining contract to an in-house hybrid model is underway.

The General Manager of Jwaneng Mine, Koolatotse Koolatotse, revealed that Debswana would not necessarily absorb all employees of the former CUT 9 contractor Majwe Mining. Speaking at the same virtual media briefing, Koolatotse said: “Debswana did not commit to absorbing Majwe Mining employees”

Majwe was in 2019 awarded the multi billon Pula contract to deliver the Jwaneng Cut 9 project, a significant investment by Debswana that intends to extend the life of Jwaneng Mine. The contract was however terminated due to “internal reasons.”

“Our contract with Majwe allowed for such termination , where one party on reasons best known to them could walk away from the contract without necessarily stating to the other party why it’s necessary to terminate.” Koolatotse further explained that Debswana has no obligation to re-hire Majwe Mining employees.

“In recruiting new skills for our new hybrid model we are publicly floating requests for expression of interest , that is to say anyone who has the skills we require for our new in-house model is welcome, it will not be based on whether you worked for Majwe or not,” he said.

Continue Reading

Business

Leading global funders jump into Botswana-Namibia mega solar project

27th April 2021
Mega Solar Project

Top development funding institutions amongst them World Bank investment arms have jumped into the much anticipated Botswana-Namibia Mega Solar Project. The multibillion dollar massive project was confirmed by authorities of the two countries late August last year.

The Southern African sovereigns, both of which enjoy massive natural solar exposure, have partnered with Power Africa- a United States government entity to deliver what will be one of the world’s largest solar power plants. The project will see installations built across both countries and the power produced will be exported to the Southern African region.

This week, information emerged that The African Development Bank, The International Finance Corporation and The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development have signed a Memorandum of Intent to open talks for financing the project.

The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, and The International Finance Corporation are World Bank private Investment agencies that seek to support private sector growth across developing economies of its member States. According to sources, the Memorandum of Intent would support the pre-feasibility and related studies required to advance the project.

Botswana authorities revealed recently that the capital raising campaign involving the three mentioned financing organisations would help fund the studies and could be involved in supporting the actual project’s development. It is anticipated, based on previous experience on similar projects, that the feasibility study could cost up to P20 million.

Plans for the 5 GW solar energy capacity to be developed over the next 2 decades for both the African nations, Namibia and Botswana, were first formulated and shared by the World Economic Forum’s (WEF) Global Future Council on Energy and the US led Power Africa initiative, in August 2019.

There will be a multi-phased solar procurement program to help these countries get access to secure, reliable, inexpensive solar power at scale.  Under phase 1, the idea would be to procure 300 MW to 500 MW capacity to cover future domestic demand only, phase 2 will see 500 MW to 1 GW capacity to be procured to cover regional demand within the South African Power Pool (SAPP) or through bilateral agreements.

Under phase 3, between 1 GW to 3 GW capacity will be procured to meet demand in SAPP and Eastern Africa Power Pool (EAPP), as per the plans shared last year. All this capacity will be developed through a competitive procurement process.

Botswana and Namibia were specifically chosen for this mega solar project because of their solar irradiation potential, large open spaces and low population density, strong legal and regulatory environment, and low-cost, efficient and smart power-trading potential to meet high regional demand.

“Southern Africa may have as much as 24,000 MW of unmet demand for power by 2040. The market for electricity produced by the mega-solar projects in Botswana and Namibia includes 12 other countries in the region that could be connected via new and/or upgraded transmission infrastructure. As battery storage technology advances and costs of solar storage drop below $0.10 per kilowatt hour, solar power becomes an even more cost-competitive solution,” the World Economic Forum said in 2019.

While the 5 GW capacity will help both the nations diversify their energy mix, it will also help bring down their dependence on South African national electricity utility, Eskom, which has problems of its own in financial and operational terms. Namibia and Botswana will be able to save their resources spent otherwise spent on energy import.

According to the Global Market Outlook for Solar Power 2020-2024 of Solar Power Europe (SPE), Namibia was among the few countries in Sub-Saharan Africa to have installed over 100 MW on-grid PV in 2019, with 130 MW added. The 5 GW project with Botswana, if realized, will help the country in its renewable energy target of 70% for its energy mix to be achieved by 2030.

Botswana and Namibia offer the potential to capture around 10 hours of strong sunlight per day for 300 days per year and have some of the highest solar irradiance potential of any country in Africa, which translates to highly productive concentrated solar power (CSP) and photovoltaic (PV) installations.

Both countries have sizeable areas of flat, uninhabited land not currently used for productive economic activity, which is conducive to building land-intensive solar PV and CSP installations. According to World Economic Forum (WEF) key investment challenge for power projects across sub-Saharan Africa is limited availability of foreign currency to permit repatriation of proceeds.

“Given the active diamond and mining industries in both countries, there should be sufficient foreign exchange available to facilitate outside investment,” a WEF report said in 2019. Botswana and Namibia are also working on conceptualisation of the ambitious ocean water distillation project to supply both counties with drinking water.

“We are happy with the prospects presented by this project, because we need water. However, our ministers and technocrats need to determine what is best for us keeping in mind our governance procedures,’’ aid President Masisi Masisi in one of his working visits to Namibia early this year.

Continue Reading

Business

‘Sub-Saharan Africa records slowest growth in 2021’

27th April 2021

An International Monetary Fund (IMF) report on the Regional Economic Outlook on Sub-Saharan Africa has revealed that the region will be the world’s slowest growing region in 2021, and risks falling further behind as the global economy rebounds.

Speaking at a virtual press briefing on the Regional Economic Outlook recently, Abebe Aemro Selassie, Director of the African Department of the IMF, highlighted that although the outlook of the Sub-Saharan Africa region has improved since October 2020, the -1.9% contraction in 2020 remains the worst performance on record.

Even during these unprecedented times of the pandemic, the IMF report reflects that the region will recover some ground this year and is projected to grow by 3.4 percent. On the other hand, per capita output is not expected to return to 2019 levels until after 2022.

“This economic hardship has caused significant social dislocation. In many countries, per capita incomes will not return to pre-pandemic levels until 2025. The number of people living in extreme poverty in sub-Saharan Africa is projected to have increased by more than 32 million. There has also been a tremendous ‘learning loss’ for young people. Students in the region have missed 67 days of instruction, more than four times the days missed by children in advanced economies,” said Selassie.

This is feared to risk reversing years of progress, and the region falling behind the rest of the world. The IMF report focusing on navigating a long pandemic has shown that financial stability indicators have displayed little change. But the longer the pandemic lingers, the more borrowers may find themselves compromised, with potentially significant implications for nonperforming loans (NPLs), bank solvency, and the triggering of public guarantees.

So far, financial soundness indicators do not point to any major deterioration in the financial system’s health, thanks, in part, to the exceptional policy support provided by local authorities.
Botswana’s supervisory authorities, according to the report, have allowed their banks to use their countercyclical capital buffers to help deal with the crisis, however, the full impact of the crisis is still to be felt with Regulatory Forbearance scheduled to end in 2021.

This has perhaps prevented a number of non-viable loans from being captured properly in existing financial soundness indicators, the report indicated. The outlook for sub-Saharan Africa is expected to diverge from the rest of the world, with constraints on policy space and vaccine rollout holding back the near-term recovery. While advanced economies have deployed extraordinary policy support that is now driving their recoveries, for most countries in sub-Saharan Africa this is not an option.

“As we have observed throughout the pandemic, the outlook is subject to greater-than-usual uncertainty. The main risk is that the region could face repeated COVID-19 episodes before vaccines become widely available. But there are a range of other factors—limited access to the external financing, political instability, domestic security, or climate events—that could jeopardize the recovery. More positively, faster‑than‑expected vaccine supply or rollout could boost the region’s near-term prospects,” the report stated.

The IMF has called out Sub-Saharan nations to focus on policies and the priorities for nurturing recovery; such as saving lives that will require more spending to strengthen local health systems and containment efforts, as well as to cover vaccine procurement and distribution.

Selassie underscored that: “the next priority is to reinforce the recovery and unlock Sub-Saharan Africa’s growth potential. Bold and transformative reforms are therefore more urgent than ever. These include reforms to strengthen social protection systems, promote digitalization, improve transparency and governance, and mitigate climate change.”

Delivering on these reforms, while overcoming the scarring from the crisis will require difficult policy choices, according to Selassie.  Countries will have to tighten their fiscal stance to address debt vulnerabilities and restore the health of public balance sheets—especially so for the seventeen countries in the region that are in debt distress or at high risk of it.

By pursuing actions to mobilize domestic revenue, prioritize essential spending, and more effectively manage public debt, policymakers can create the fiscal space needed to invest in the recovery.
‘‘The sub-Saharan region cannot do this alone; there is a crucial need for further support from the international community,’’ Selassie said.

Along with the international community, the IMF moved swiftly to help cover some of the region’s emergency funding requirements. This included support via emergency financing facilities, increased access under existing arrangements, and debt relief for the most vulnerable countries through the Catastrophe Containment and Relief Trust (CCRT).

“To boost spending on the pandemic response, to maintain adequate reserves, and to accelerate the recovery to where the income gap with the rest of the world is closing rather than getting wider. To do this, countries in sub-Saharan Africa will need additional external funding of around $425 billion over the next 5 years.

However, meeting the region’s total needs will require significant contributions from all potential sources: private capital inflows; international financial institutions; debt-neutral support via (Official Development Assistance) ODA; debt relief; and capacity development to help countries effectively scale up development spending,” said Selassie.
All these issues are expected to be discussed at the forthcoming High-Level International Summit on Financing for Africa in May.

Continue Reading
Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!