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Saturday, 02 December 2023

THE RACE TO 2019 HAS BEGUN:

Opinions

NATIONAL BUDGET, WATER, REVENUE SOURCES, OUR NATIONAL VISION CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES!!
 

Like the annual state of the nation address by the president, the annual national budget presentation by the minister of finance and development planning is something that, not only the nation looks forward to with anticipation, but the world at large has great interest in it.

The nation wants to know what developments have been completed and what new developments will be taking place in the country, when and at what cost and how they will benefit from such developments.  They want their fair share of the national cake. 

The business community wants to see what is planned so that they can prepare themselves to participate in a meaningful way.

Some years back the government workers had particular interest in the budget presentation as their annual salaries and benefits increments were announced during this presentation. These days with the bargaining council in place it is not clear how the salaries and benefits of government employees are catered for in the budget as these are now ‘negotiables’. The global business leaders and multinationals want to see if there are opportunities for potential investment to grow their business interests in the country.

While the ordinary people in the streets and villages do not really care much because they do not really understand the implications on their lives except perhaps the pensioners on tandabala who will be hoping for some increase on their paltry monthly allowance.

The budget normally contains what they call recurrent budget and development budget.  In the language that I understand, the budget contains working costs and capital costs. 

The working costs or recurrent budget is for the day to day running of government operations.  It must include salaries and benefits for all government employees, including old age tandabala pensioners; running of all government facilities, offices including maintenance of such facilities and offices.  This budget should be predictable and easy to come up with annually. 

The capital or development budget normally should contain working capital, which is capital for on going projects. This should also be predictable and should only change due to approved changes of scope and or unpredictable changes in prices. The second part of the capital or development budget should be on new developments from the national development plan or new compelling opportunities.

So why should budget preparation be so onerous? Why should it be so secretive? Why can’t the nation be involved through Kgotla type meetings?  Obviously government will be duty bound to priritise and then explain the priorities to the nation during the budget speech.  From time to time they will be need for chopping and changing items from the budget due perhaps to financial limitations to support the required budget, but this should be transparent and presented clearly by the minister.

It is my belief, my deep conviction that any nation that wants to be amongst the top performers in the world must have a long term vision for the country as well as a transparent long term national development plan to anchor that vision.

The annual budget then becomes just a formality to explain where the country is against its development plans and what adjustments are necessary to stay on course towards their vision.

It is therefore not clear why government has to go to parliament during the year; each year seeking supplementary budgetary allocations, which runs into billions of Pula. Is someone sleeping on the job and allowed to do so relentlessly, year on year?  Should we not keep on probing our budgetary systems and questioning their usefulness with a view to improve? I think we must as a matter of urgency reconsider our budgetary approaches and systems.

The other side of the budget coin is the sources of funds that will support the work to be done. Where will the money come from? We should have a good idea where the money will be coming from.  This is where the ministry should be spending most of its time, determining and scrutinising all the sources and ensuring that every ‘thebe’ is accounted for from each source; tax collection for instance, are we collecting all the taxes? Are we getting all the royalties from our minerals? Are we getting all we should be getting from our diamonds? Are we getting what is really due to us from all our mineral reserves and other sources? Are they any financial leakages in our systems? Corruption and inefficiencies must be major sources of such leakages.

Let us check and improve our revenue collection systems. Let us make these systems transparent so that the nation at large can also help. Involving the nation meaningfully is the only way we can genuinely “move Botswana forward’.

Moving on, I would like to acknowledge that, it is going to be a very difficult budget presentation for the minister of finance and development planning this year. I would also like to offer some suggestions to help the minister to come up with an extraordinary budget proposal to mitigate the dire situation ahead of us because of two main dangers facing us head on; drying water sources as well as drying revenues from our mining sources. These are real dangers that have potential to bring our economy to its knees fast.

There can never be any development and no meaningful budget in this country when all our water sources and mining revenues are drying up. The water situation in the country is dire and poses a real threat to the future of our nation. Without water needless to say there is no life. Water is life in the literal sense (no water you die) but also in the business sense (no water, no business, no development and no future).

If ever there was ever a need for an economic stimulus package (ESP), it is now for the provision of adequate water supply for all our national needs.  With the current challenging weather situation, those northern dams will dry up just like the Gaborone dam has dried up.

Unless the good Lord opens up the flood gates of heaven to fill our ‘dying’ rivers and dams, we will have to come up with emergency plans fast for sustainable water supply.  

Bringing water from Chobe has been talked about for decades and the ‘pipeline’ seems to be very very long, the water from the Lesotho high lands also has even a longer ‘pipeline’ that will take ages to arrive in Botswana. But we must also be mindful of the lessons from the past; that we must have enough of our own to satisfy our own national needs and even more for export. This is a basic prudent planning lesson I leant at secondary school and unfortunately as a nation we fail to learn.  Even in Setswana we have an expression for this ‘motho o kgonwa ke sa gagwe’, meaning you should rely on your own resources.

Mr.  Mokaila must dig into the pages of the national water master plan of 2005 and come up with an emergency plan to get some of the projects detailed therein expedited.  We must as a mater of urgency determine where adequate ground water is situated, whether potable or non potable; any water can be treated and cleaned up for potable use?

Where is all the water that flows annually from the Okavango Swamps? Where is the water that flows annually from the Nata River? Where does the Makakaraga potable ground water come from? We need answers before the country dries up?  I am convinced that we have adequate underground water sources. God did not create our country without a plan for our survival in it. Even in a desert we can survive; ask Dubai, Chile, Israel and others!

The use of waste water which was also part of the national water master plan of 2005 must be expedited. There has been a lot of talk about this but no visible action.  By now they should be no such a thing as waste water in Botswana. All the water that is used must be recycled back into the water supply systems without any hesitation or questions. It is an international norm, practiced over many decades if not centuries. We need some action on this from Mr. Mokaila and his team. We cannot continue to talk without taking any action.

Let us hope that the minister of finance will announce some far reaching measures that will address the water situation countrywide before we all perish from thirst.  I would like to end by saying that a nation without a vision is a lost nation. 

We had a brilliant vision inappropriately coined ‘vision 2016’. This was a beautiful vision for the country. It has not been achieved and we are now spending millions to come up with yet another vision that will not be realised (talk of wasteful expenditure).  Vision 2016 should be our national vision until it is achieved then we can come up with another vision if necessary.

What is required is a national development plan with milestone for achieving our vision. It will be a step by step approach towards that vision, the vision cannot be achieved over night and in many cases it will never be fully achieved.  It should not be time bound like an objective or plan.

For instance ‘an educated and informed nation’ is a vision that will always be there as long as the nation is in existence.  A vision should not die if it is a good one. What changes should only be development plans to help get the nation closure and closure to that vision. A vision is a long term aspiration, a mental picture of what we want to be as a nation.

This country needs a visionary leadership that will see beyond its lifespan; visionary leadership that will consider the nation first and personal gains as secondary; selfless visionaries, who will be able to listen to all the voices from their people, act decisively and lead their people to prosperity and self actualisation. It is time for the people like ‘madam speaker sir’ to be listened to, it is time for people like the ‘first people of the Kalahari’ to be listen to and not to be panel beaten into submission. 

We need leaders who will judge their people not by who they know but what they can do to advance the fortunes of their nation. We need leaders with pure hearts who will do only what is right regardless of partisan dogma.

Without visionary leaders, our country will be driven into the abyss and perish as prophesied by King David who said a ‘nation without a vision will perish’. Our leaders should engage the nation on this budget and the national vision in a meaningful and untraditional way. We need to address the water situation like yesterday. We need to re-assess how Debswana is managed so that we can begin to get more from our diamonds to support our economy. We must expand our maginations!
 

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Opinions

IEC Disrespects Batswana: A Critical Analysis

10th November 2023

The Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) has recently faced significant criticism for its handling of the voter registration exercise. In this prose I aim to shed light on the various instances where the IEC has demonstrated a lack of respect towards the citizens of Botswana, leading to a loss of credibility. By examining the postponements of the registration exercise and the IEC’s failure to communicate effectively, it becomes evident that the institution has disregarded its core mandate and the importance of its role in ensuring fair and transparent elections.

Incompetence or Disrespect?

One possible explanation for the IEC’s behavior is sheer incompetence. It is alarming to consider that the leadership of such a critical institution may lack the understanding of the importance of their mandate. The failure to communicate the reasons for the postponements in a timely manner raises questions about their ability to handle their responsibilities effectively. Furthermore, if the issue lies with government processes, it calls into question whether the IEC has the courage to stand up to the country’s leadership.

Another possibility is that the IEC lacks respect for its core clients, the voters of Botswana. Respect for stakeholders is crucial in building trust, and clear communication is a key component of this. The IEC’s failure to communicate accurate and complete information, despite having access to it, has fueled speculation and mistrust. Additionally, the IEC’s disregard for engaging with political parties, such as the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC), further highlights this disrespect. By ignoring the UDC’s request to observe the registration process, the IEC demonstrates a lack of regard for its partners in the electoral exercise.

Rebuilding Trust and Credibility:

While allegations of political interference and security services involvement cannot be ignored, the IEC has a greater responsibility to ensure its own credibility. The institution did manage to refute claims by the DISS Director that the IEC database had been compromised, which is a positive step towards rebuilding trust. However, this remains a small glimmer of hope in the midst of the IEC’s overall disregard for the citizens of Botswana.

To regain the trust of Batswana, the IEC must prioritize respect for its stakeholders. Clear and timely communication is essential in this process. By engaging with political parties and addressing their concerns, the IEC can demonstrate a commitment to transparency and fairness. It is crucial for the IEC to recognize that its credibility is directly linked to the trust it garners from the voters.

Conclusion:

The IEC’s recent actions have raised serious concerns about its credibility and respect for the citizens of Botswana. Whether due to incompetence or a lack of respect for stakeholders, the IEC’s failure to communicate effectively and handle its responsibilities has damaged its reputation. To regain trust and maintain relevance, the IEC must prioritize clear and timely communication, engage with political parties, and demonstrate a commitment to transparency and fairness. Only by respecting the voters of Botswana can the IEC fulfill its crucial role in ensuring free and fair elections.

 

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Opinions

Fuelling Change: The Evolving Dynamics of the Oil and Gas Industry

4th April 2023

The Oil and Gas industry has undergone several significant developments and changes over the last few years. Understanding these developments and trends is crucial towards better appreciating how to navigate the engagement in this space, whether directly in the energy space or in associated value chain roles such as financing.

Here, we explore some of the most notable global events and trends and the potential impact or bearing they have on the local and global market.

Governments and companies around the world have been increasingly focused on transitioning towards renewable energy sources such as solar and wind power. This shift is motivated by concerns about climate change and the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Africa, including Botswana, is part of these discussions, as we work to collectively ensure a greener and more sustainable future. Indeed, this is now a greater priority the world over. It aligns closely with the increase in Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) investing being observed. ESG investing has become increasingly popular, and many investors are now looking for companies that are focused on sustainability and reducing their carbon footprint. This trend could have significant implications for the oil and fuel industry, which is often viewed as environmentally unsustainable. Relatedly and equally key are the evolving government policies. Government policies and regulations related to the Oil and Gas industry are likely to continue evolving with discussions including incentives for renewable energy and potentially imposing stricter regulations on emissions.

The COVID-19 pandemic has also played a strong role. Over the last two years, the pandemic had a profound impact on the Oil and Gas industry (and fuel generally), leading to a significant drop in demand as travel and economic activity slowed down. As a result, oil prices plummeted, with crude oil prices briefly turning negative in April 2020. Most economies have now vaccinated their populations and are in recovery mode, and with the recovery of the economies, there has been recovery of oil prices; however, the pace and sustainability of recovery continues to be dependent on factors such as emergence of new variants of the virus.

This period, which saw increased digital transformation on the whole, also saw accelerated and increased investment in technology. The Oil and Gas industry is expected to continue investing in new digital technologies to increase efficiency and reduce costs. This also means a necessary understanding and subsequent action to address the impacts from the rise of electric vehicles. The growing popularity of electric vehicles is expected to reduce demand for traditional gasoline-powered cars. This has, in turn, had an impact on the demand for oil.

Last but not least, geopolitical tensions have played a tremendous role. Geopolitical tensions between major oil-producing countries can and has impacted the supply of oil and fuel. Ongoing tensions in the Middle East and between the US and Russia could have an impact on global oil prices further, and we must be mindful of this.

On the home front in Botswana, all these discussions are relevant and the subject of discussion in many corporate and even public sector boardrooms. Stanbic Bank Botswana continues to take a lead in supporting the Oil and Gas industry in its current state and as it evolves and navigates these dynamics. This is through providing financing to support Oil and Gas companies’ operations, including investments in new technologies. The Bank offers risk management services to help oil and gas companies to manage risks associated with price fluctuations, supply chain disruptions and regulatory changes. This includes offering hedging products and providing advice on risk management strategies.

Advisory and support for sustainability initiatives that the industry undertakes is also key to ensuring that, as companies navigate complex market conditions, they are more empowered to make informed business decisions. It is important to work with Oil and Gas companies to develop and implement sustainability strategies, such as reducing emissions and increasing the use of renewable energy. This is key to how partners such as Stanbic Bank work to support the sector.

Last but not least, Stanbic Bank stands firmly in support of Botswana’s drive in the development of the sector with the view to attain better fuel security and reduce dependence risk on imported fuel. This is crucial towards ensuring a stronger, stabler market, and a core aspect to how we can play a role in helping drive Botswana’s growth.  Continued understanding, learning, and sustainable action are what will help ensure the Oil and Gas sector is supported towards positive, sustainable and impactful growth in a manner that brings social, environmental and economic benefit.

Loago Tshomane is Manager, Client Coverage, Corporate and Investment Banking (CIB), Stanbic Bank Botswana

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Opinions

Brands are important

27th March 2023

So, the conclusion is brands are important. I start by concluding because one hopes this is a foregone conclusion given the furore that erupts over a botched brand. If a fast food chef bungles a food order, there’d be possibly some isolated complaint thrown. However, if the same company’s marketing expert or agency cooks up a tasteless brand there is a country-wide outcry. Why?  Perhaps this is because brands affect us more deeply than we care to understand or admit. The fact that the uproar might be equal parts of schadenfreude, black twitter-esque criticism and, disappointment does not take away from the decibel of concern raised.

A good place to start our understanding of a brand is naturally by defining what a brand is. Marty Neumier, the genius who authored The Brand Gap, offers this instructive definition – “A brand is a person’s gut feel about a product or service”. In other words, a brand is not what the company says it is. It is what the people feel it is. It is the sum total of what it means to them. Brands are perceptions. So, brands are defined by individuals not companies. But brands are owned by companies not individuals. Brands are crafted in privacy but consumed publicly. Brands are communal. Granted, you say. But that doesn’t still explain why everybody and their pet dog feel entitled to jump in feet first into a brand slug-fest armed with a hot opinion. True. But consider the following truism.

 

Brands are living. They act as milestones in our past. They are signposts of our identity. Beacons of our triumphs. Indexes of our consumption. Most importantly, they have invaded our very words and world view. Try going for just 24 hours without mentioning a single brand name. Quite difficult, right? Because they live among us they have become one of us. And we have therefore built ‘brand bonds’ with them. For example, iPhone owners gather here. You love your iPhone. It goes everywhere. You turn to it in moments of joy and when we need a quick mood boost. Notice how that ‘relationship’ started with desire as you longingly gazed upon it in a glossy brochure. That quickly progressed to asking other people what they thought about it. Followed by the zero moment of truth were you committed and voted your approval through a purchase. Does that sound like a romantic relationship timeline. You bet it does. Because it is. When we conduct brand workshops we run the Brand Loyalty ™ exercise wherein we test people’s loyalty to their favourite brand(s). The results are always quite intriguing. Most people are willing to pay a 40% premium over the standard price for ‘their’ brand. They simply won’t easily ‘breakup’ with it. Doing so can cause brand ‘heart ache’. There is strong brand elasticity for loved brands.

 

Now that we know brands are communal and endeared, then companies armed with this knowledge, must exercise caution and practise reverence when approaching the subject of rebranding. It’s fragile. The question marketers ought to ask themselves before gleefully jumping into the hot rebranding cauldron is – Do we go for an Evolution (partial rebrand) or a Revolution(full rebrand)? An evolution is incremental. It introduces small but significant changes or additions to the existing visual brand. Here, think of the subtle changes you’ve seen in financial or FMCG brands over the decades. Evolution allows you to redirect the brand without alienating its horde of faithful followers. As humans we love the familiar and certain. Change scares us. Especially if we’ve not been privy to the important but probably blinkered ‘strategy sessions’ ongoing behind the scenes. Revolutions are often messy. They are often hard reset about-turns aiming for a total new look and ‘feel’.

 

 

Hard rebranding is risky business. History is littered with the agony of brands large and small who felt the heat of public disfavour. In January 2009, PepsiCo rebranded the Tropicana. When the newly designed package hit the shelves, consumers were not having it. The New York Times reports that ‘some of the commenting described the new packaging as ‘ugly’ ‘stupid’. They wanted their old one back that showed a ripe orange with a straw in it. Sales dipped 20%. PepsiCo reverted to the old logo and packaging within a month. In 2006 Mastercard had to backtrack away from it’s new logo after public criticism, as did Leeds United, and the clothing brand Gap. AdAge magazine reports that critics most common sentiment about the Gap logo was that it looked like something a child had created using a clip-art gallery. Botswana is no different. University of Botswana had to retreat into the comfort of the known and accepted heritage strong brand.  Sir Ketumile Masire Teaching Hospital was badgered with complaints till it ‘adjusted’ its logo.

 

 

So if the landscape of rebranding is so treacherous then whey take the risk? Companies need to soberly assess they need for a rebrand. According to the fellows at Ignyte Branding a rebrand is ignited by the following admissions :

Our brand name no longer reflects our company’s vision.
We’re embarrassed to hand out our business cards.

Our competitive advantage is vague or poorly articulated.
Our brand has lost focus and become too complex to understand. Our business model or strategy has changed.
Our business has outgrown its current brand.
We’re undergoing or recently underwent a merger or acquisition. Our business has moved or expanded its geographic reach.
We need to disassociate our brand from a negative image.
We’re struggling to raise our prices and increase our profit margins. We want to expand our influence and connect to new audiences. We’re not attracting top talent for the positions we need to fill. All the above are good reasons to rebrand.

The downside to this debacle is that companies genuinely needing to rebrand might be hesitant or delay it altogether. The silver lining I guess is that marketing often mocked for its charlatans, is briefly transformed from being the Archilles heel into Thanos’ glove in an instant.

So what does a company need to do to safely navigate the rebranding terrain? Companies need to interrogate their brand purpose thoroughly. Not what they think they stand for but what they authentically represent when seen through the lens of their team members. In our Brand Workshop we use a number of tools to tease out the compelling brand truth. This section always draws amusing insights. Unfailingly, the top management (CEO & CFO)always has a vastly different picture of their brand to the rest of their ExCo and middle management, as do they to the customer-facing officer. We have only come across one company that had good internal alignment. Needless to say that brand is doing superbly well.

There is need a for brand strategies to guide the brand. One observes that most brands ‘make a plan’ as they go along. Little or no deliberate position on Brand audit, Customer research, Brand positioning and purpose, Architecture, Messaging, Naming, Tagline, Brand Training and may more. A brand strategy distils why your business exists beyond making money – its ‘why’. It defines what makes your brand what it is, what differentiates it from the competition and how you want your customers to perceive it. Lacking a brand strategy disadvantages the company in that it appears soul-less and lacking in personality. Naturally, people do not like to hang around humans with nothing to say. A brand strategy understands the value proposition. People don’t buy nails for the nails sake. They buy nails to hammer into the wall to hang pictures of their loved ones. People don’t buy make up because of its several hues and shades. Make up is self-expression. Understanding this arms a brand with an iron clad clad strategy on the brand battlefield.

But perhaps you’ve done the important research and strategy work. It’s still possible to bungle the final look and feel.  A few years ago one large brand had an extensive strategy done. Hopes were high for a top tier brand reveal. The eventual proposed brand was lack-lustre. I distinctly remember, being tasked as local agency to ‘land’ the brand and we outright refused. We could see this was a disaster of epic proportions begging to happen. The brand consultants were summoned to revise the logo. After a several tweaks and compromises the brand landed. It currently exists as one of the country’s largest brands. Getting the logo and visual look right is important. But how does one know if they are on the right path? Using the simile of a brand being a person – The answer is how do you know your outfit is right? It must serve a function, be the right fit and cut, it must be coordinated and lastly it must say something about you. So it is possible to bath in a luxurious bath gel, apply exotic lotion, be facebeat and still somehow wear a faux pas outfit. Avoid that.

Another suggestion is to do the obvious. Pre-test the logo and its look and feel on a cross section of your existing and prospective audience. There are tools to do this. Their feedback can save you money, time and pain. Additionally one must do another obvious check – use Google Image to verify the visual outcome and plain Google search to verify the name. These are so obvious they are hopefully for gone conclusions. But for the brands that have gone ahead without them, I hope you have not concluded your brand journeys as there is a world of opportunity waiting to be unlocked with the right brand strategy key.

Cliff Mada is Head of ArmourGetOn Brand Consultancy, based in Gaborone and Cape Town.

cliff@armourgeton.com

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