The value addition of the Economic Stimulus Programme (ESP) remains hazy with the recent budget failing to breakdown the estimated injection of P3billion over the two year period.
The rationale behind the ESP is to support domestic economic activities in the short-term while providing a foundation for sustainable growth for the economy in the long-term through investment in infrastructural development.
Presenting the 2016/17 budget speech, the minister of Finance and development planning Kenneth Matambo noted that the implementation of the ESP is scheduled to start in earnest in the 2016/2017 financial year.
However the expectation was for Matambo to explicitly reveal how much is going to be spent under the stimulus package, how many jobs will be created and then give estimates on its contribution to the deteriorating economic growth.
The minister proposed about P37 billion for the recurrent budget .From the P14 billion proposed under the development budget for the coming financial year, Matambo only mentioned a handful of projects under the stimulus programme amounting to a total of a mere P1.3 billion.
Sharing his views on the ESP, Research Manger at First National Bank (FNB) Moathlodi Sebabole said “the estimated value of over P3billion towards ESP over a 2-year period is not broken down into new money and existing money within the budgetary process and thus it is difficult to estimate the value add of ESP over and above the projects which will have been budgeted for in anyway.”
Sebabole highlighted that that the likelihood of job creation exists, however, more temporal as opposed to sustainable in nature. The targeted sectors include tourism development, agricultural production, construction and manufacturing.
“This is primarily due to the nature of most of the established ESP jobs which will involve construction and maintenance contracts both of which are finite in nature,” he said.
Further, Sebabole said even though the economy remains healthy, it is under pressure just like a lot of emerging markets economies. “It is worth noting that there are levers to pool for combination of savings drawdown and debt utilization in order to finance the envisaged deficits,” he said.
The economy is now expected to have grown around 1% in 2015, as supply side shocks of water and electricity continue to negate growth, whereas mining downturns also affect the overall health of the economy.
“At FNBB, we expect growth to remain below trend even in 2016 at sub-3% levels as mining recovery is expected to remain mild, while non-mining private sector will remain under pressure due to supply side shocks of water and electricity,” he said.
After three years of fiscal budget surpluses since 2011/12, the fiscal budget is now expected to undergo deficits in the current fiscal year and fiscal year 2016/17. This is on the back-drop of declining mineral revenue as commodity prices remain low and diamond sales are not as robust as prior years.
Additionally, the downturn in South African economy, as well as a weak rand has affected the SACU revenue which consists over 26% of the revenue. On the other hand, expenditure is expected to gradually grow for supplementary financing of backlog of projects and quasi-government organizations which are loss making such as BPC, WUC – coupled with some relief measures for drought and welfare.
The deficits are expected to total over P10billion in the two years, with FY15/16 deficit estimated at -2.8% of GDP, while the FY16/17 deficit is estimated at -3.2% of GDP – against threshold of budget deficit of -4% of GDP.
As stated in the budget speech, the deficits are expected to be financed from a combination of drawdown on government savings which total P35bio and debt participation as the total debt-to-GDP levels remain below threshold of 40%.
Sebabole said the deficits show a counter-cyclical cycle that the economy is currently running. “The risks in the medium term will arise if global recoveries do not come sooner, and thus government revenue remains under pressure for a while. Extended global volatilities might result in extended deficits, which might force government to enforce some fiscal austerities,” he stated.
He emphasized the need for government to effectively implement the projects as there is still underutilization of allocated funds, despite projects needs and backlogs. Sebabole said the untimely delivery of projects and quality of infrastructure projects raises need to accelerate active public-private-partnership in delivery of projects.
In his view the low debt-to-GDP ratios provide an opportunity for government to issue more bonds to finance the deficit, as well as engage private sector institutions to finance and act as advisory for some of the mega projects.
Total revenues and grants for 2016/17 are estimated at P48.40 billion, a decrease of P3.36 billion compared to the revised budget of P51.76 billion for 2015/16 due to a projected fall of 6.9 per cent in mineral revenues and 23.8 per cent in customs and excise receipts.
Mineral revenue contributes 35.2 per cent of the total revenues, followed by Customs and Excise at 24.3 per cent. Non-Mineral Income Tax and Value Added Tax come third and fourth at 21.2 per cent and 12.4 per cent respectively.
Botswana has recorded its first trade surplus for 2021 since the only one for the year in January.
The country’s exports for the month of July surpassed the value of imports, Statistics Botswana’s July International Merchandise Trade data reveals.
Released last Friday, the monthly trade digest reports a positive jump in the trade balance graph against the backdrop of a series of trade deficits in the preceding months since January this year.
According to the country’s significant data body, imports for the month were valued at P7.232 billion, reflecting a decline of 6.6 percent from the revised June 2021 value of P7.739 billion.
Total exports during the same month amounted to P7.605 billion, showing an increase of 6.1 percent over the revised June 2021 value of P7.170 billion.
A trade surplus of P373.2 million was recorded in July 2021. This follows a revised trade deficit of P568.7 million for June 2021.
For the total exports value of P7.605 billion, the Diamonds group accounted for 91.2 percent (P6.936 billion), followed by Machinery & Electrical Equipment and Salt & Soda Ash with 2.2 percent (P169.7 million) and 1.3 percent (P100.9 million) respectively.
Asia was the leading destination for Botswana exports, receiving 65.2 percent (P4.96 billion) of total exports during July 2021.
These exports mostly went to the UAE and India, having received 26.3 percent (P1. 99 billion) and 18.7 percent (P1.422 billion) of total exports, respectively. The top most exported commodity to the regional block was Diamonds.
Exports destined to the European Union amounted to P1.64 billion, accounting for 21.6 percent of total exports.
Belgium received almost all exports destined to the regional union, acquiring 21.5 percent (P1.6337 billion) of total exports during the reporting period.
The Diamonds group was the leading commodity group exported to the EU. The SACU region received exports valued at P790.7 million, representing 10.4 percent of total exports.
Diamonds and Salt & Soda Ash commodity groups accounted for 37.8 percent (P298.6 million) and 6.2 percent (P48.7 million) of total exports to the customs union.
South Africa received 9.8 percent (P745.0 million) of total exports during the month under review. The Diamonds group contributed 39.9 percent (P297.4 million) to all goods destined for the country.
In terms of imports, the SACU region contributed 62.7 percent (P4.534 billion) to total imports during July.
The topmost imported commodity groups from the SACU region were Fuel; Food, Beverages & Tobacco, and Machinery & Electrical Equipment with contributions of 33.3 percent (P1.510 billion), 17.4 percent (P789.4 million) and 12.7 percent (P576.7 million) to total imports from the region, respectively.
South Africa contributed 60.1 percent (P4.3497 billion) to total imports during July 2021.
Fuel accounted for 32.1 percent (P1.394 billion) of imports from that country. Food, Beverages & Tobacco contributed 17.7 percent (P772.0 million) to imports from South Africa.
Namibia contributed 2.0 percent (P141.1 million) to the overall imports during the period under review. Fuel was the main commodity imported from that country at 82.1 percent (P115.8 million).
During the months, imports representing 63.5 percent (P4.5904 billion) were transported into the country by Road.
Transportation of imports by Rail and Air accounted for 22.7 percent (P1.645 billion) and 13.8 percent (P996.2 million), respectively.
During the month, goods exported by Air amounted to P6, 999.2 million, accounting for 92.0 percent of total exports, while those leaving the country by Road were valued at P594.2 million (7.8 percent).
Founders from twenty companies have been accepted into the program from Botswana, Namibia, and South Africa
The 4th Cohort of the Stanford Seed Transformation Program – Southern Africa (STP), a collaboration between Stanford Graduate School of Business and De Beers Group commenced classes on 20 September 2021. According to Otsile Mabeo, Vice President Corporate Affairs, De Beers Global Sightholder Sales: “We are excited to confirm that 20 companies have been accepted into the 4th Seed Transformation Programme from Botswana, Namibia, and South Africa. The STP is an important part of the De Beers Group Building Forever sustainability strategy and demonstrates our commitment to the ‘Partnering for Thriving Communities’ pillar that aims at enhancing enterprise development in countries where we operate in the Southern African region”. Jeffrey Prickett, Global Director of Stanford Seed: “Business owners and their key management team members undertake a 12-month intensive leadership program that includes sessions on strategy and finance, business ethics, and design thinking, all taught by world-renowned Stanford faculty and local business practitioners. The program is exclusively for business owners and teams of for-profit companies or for-profit social enterprises with annual company revenues of US$300,000 – US$15million.” The programme will be delivered fully virtually to comply with COVID 19 protocols. Out of the 20 companies, 6 are from Botswana, 1 Namibia, and 13 South Africa. Since the partnership’s inception, De Beers Group and Stanford Seed have supported 74 companies, 89 founders/CEOs, and approximately 750 senior-level managers to undertake the program in Southern Africa.
Minergy, the coal mining and trading company with the Masama coal mine, this week released results for the year ended 30 June 2021. The company achieved revenue of P193 million (2020: P81 million) with significant improvement in sales volumes surpassing 415 000 tonnes sold for the year.
The performance was divided into two distinct periods with very different operating environments. The first eight-month period (July 2020 – February 2021), was negatively impacted by delayed funding, COVID-19 impacts and excessive rain; and the last four-month period (March – June 2021), was a more stable production environment moving toward nameplate capacity.
According to Minergy CEO, Morné du Plessis, production and sales initially recovered in July and August 2020 with the easing of COVID-19 restrictions and recoveries were further bolstered by the successful launch of the rail siding. Delays experienced in concluding the funding contributed to contractors limiting operations to manage arrears.
“However, the heavy rains we experienced from December 2020 through February 2021 flooded the mine pit making access difficult and impacting both production and sales. Fortunately, the rain subsided in March 2021, and we entered a more stable environment, with a positive impact on operations. Good recoveries in production and sales were experienced during the last four-month period of the year, with the mine moving closer toward a breakeven position.”
“Despite these operational constraints, including the effects of COVID-19 on logistics and manning of shifts, we expect to reach consistent nameplate capacity in the 2022 financial year,” du Plessis added.
In addition to the revenue reported above, the company incurred costs of sales of P256 million (2020: P150 million) with operating costs of P23 million (2020: P31 million). This effectively resulted in an operating loss of P86 million (2020: P100 million). Finance costs of P51 million (2020: P17 million) were incurred, bringing the net loss before taxation to P136 million (2020: P117 million).
Du Plessis explains that the adverse conditions in the first eight-month period contributed to 86% of the gross loss, while the more stable four-month period alone contributed to 50% of total sales value, helping to decrease monthly gross losses, albeit below breakeven levels.
The company benefited from a strengthening in the South African Rand (“ZAR”) supporting higher back-on- mine sales prices.
“As announced, we’re pleased to have secured P125 million of additional convertible debt funding through the Minerals Development Company Botswana (Proprietary) Limited (“MDCB”). Minergy remains grateful for this support.”
He added that the first tranche of additional funding provided by the MDCB had been received in December 2020, which allowed Minergy to settle the majority of the contractor’s arrears and allowed their teams to be remobilised. The second and final tranche was paid post the financial year-end and will allow the business to reach nameplate capacity in the new financial year.”
COAL SALES AND MINE PERFORMANCE
Sales volumes increased by 110%, supported by increased sales in Botswana and internationally in South Africa and Namibia. Sales for June 2021 exceeded 56 000 tonnes, a record since the inception of the mine, with pricing increasing late in the financial year on the back of buoyant international prices and a strengthening ZAR.
Minergy also concluded a further 12-month off-take agreement to the existing off-take agreement, with a further agreement finalised post year end.
Overburden moved during the reporting period increased by 86% and extracted coal by 50%. Coal mined in June 2021 alone exceeded 100 000 tonnes. “This is a good performance considering the challenges faced such as sacrificing pre-stripping activities for a period to manage arrears, excessive rain and COVID-19,” du Plessis indicated.
“The wash plant was initially starved of coal due to the factors noted already. Despite this, overall plant throughput performance was 37% higher than 2020. Consistent output was supported by the completion of the Stage 2 rigid crushing section as well as the water saving dewatering screen with filter press contributing to a reduction in water usage of 60% per tonne of coal. A record throughput of more than 84 000 tonnes was achieved in March 2021 and this consistency has been maintained.”
According to du Plessis, the completion of Stage 4 of the Processing Plant, the rigid screening and stock handling section, remains a key optimisation step, which has associated benefits. “The completion was unfortunately delayed by a southern African wide shortage of structural steel but was commissioned post year-end.”
Minergy expects the positive momentum in international coal pricing for southern African coal to remain in place. Higher coal prices have resulted in coal being withdrawn from the inland market in favour of lucrative international markets. Du Plessis added that the regional market is currently under- supplied with sized coal, which supports higher pricing and new customer opportunities for Minergy.
“Our objective for the 2022 financial year is to achieve nameplate capacity by completing final ramp-up of operations. This will enable the company to generate sufficient cash flow to stabilise the business at breakeven or better. The bullish coal market is also providing support. COVID-19 will still be closely managed, and we look forward to the lifting of the State of Emergency, as announced, and trust that vaccination programmes will achieve herd immunity in Botswana during the next 12 months.”
Du Plessis expressed his excitement on prospects stating that, “The Eskom due diligence process is continuing, and we are hopeful of receiving feedback during the current financial year. In addition to this opportunity, Minergy is also investigating participation in the request by the Government of Botswana to provide a 300MW power station for which the company has been shortlisted.”
The approved process to issue shares for cash is showing positive leads and he concluded by saying that a listing in London is still being investigated.