The fire-breathing former Botswana National Front Youth League (BNFYL) President Kagiso Ntime says that an unknown and inexplicable phenomenon that has directed the fate of the country’s leadership will once again come out to thwart an opposition takeover in the well anticipated 2019 general election.
Ntime who has since joined the ruling Botswana Democratic party (BDP) says that the seemingly preordained dynamic continues to be overlooked in the mainstream political analysis. According to his analysis an enigmatic trend has charted the course of Botswana’s rulership, ensuring BDP’s retention of government control while strategically keeping opposition parties far out of reach of stately power.
He says that the phenomenon is such that opposition parties will always falter in the odd number election years as it has done in the 1989, 1999 and 2009 general elections and then will rise again from the ashes in the even number election years of 1994, 2004 as well as 2014.
He highlights that in 1989 the gains of opposition parties plummeted and then again surged in the general election year of 1994. Ntime continued to say that contrary to popular opinion the 1994 general election remains the best year that opposition parties ever came close to the reach of state power.
He reasons that at the time, BNF managed on its own to wrestle 13 constituencies out of a 40 seat parliament and was left with securing the remaining 8 constituencies. He also reasons that the 2014 general election cannot compare with those held in 1994 as the current opposition gains came by way of a united opposition parties.
Ntime said that the same electoral gains of the 1994 general elections were reversed in 1999 when the BNF split bore the Botswana Congress Party and BNF representation in parliament came crashing down again from 13 representatives to 6.
He went on to say that while BNF’s 2004 intra party squabbles critically hurt its electability resulting in a dented public confidence BDP still managed to win 12 out of 57 seats.
Ntime was referring to the fracas where the so called ‘Temporary Platform’ faction was fighting against BNF President Otsweletse Moupo. Members of the ‘Temporary Platform’ included Dr Kathleen Letshabo, Dr Elmon Tafa and Akanyang Magama among others. They were agitating for Moupo to step down from party presidency as they said he had failed the party, labeling him a weak leader.
In the 2009 general election BNF’s elected seats dropped again to 6.BNF subsequently was in the eyes of many seen as a dying party. It received a fresh lease of life after prominent attorney Duma Boko took its leadership and led it into a coalition with Botswana Movement for Democracy (BMD) and Botswana People’s Party (BPP) where it won 17 legislative seats in the 2014 elections.
Ntime opined that looking at this phenomenal trend which is yet to be broken he is confident that BDP will once again emerge the party on top in the next general election. “I believe this phenomenon is going to continue and perhaps in the 2024 general elections that is when we might have problems but as of now I am awaiting a scholarly analysis that can crack and make sense of it.”
While he conceded the 2014 opposition gains were “a commendable good work that is good for a democracy” he also crushed it with the same effort. He said that out of 57 parliamentary seats or constituencies, the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC), politicking as a three party coalition, with the endorsement of the all powerful Botswana Federation of Public Sector Unions (BOFEPUSU) it managed to garner only 17 constituencies failing to go near the BDP constituencies’ half margin.
He also continued that the belief of an opposition takeover in the coming 2019 general election, based on opposition’s capture of the Gantsi North, Molepolole North and South and Goodhope-Mabule constituencies is an unbalanced argument. He asserted that most people fail to grasp the political dynamics at play. “The margins are very slim and those constituencies can always go back to BDP even if there is a by-election tomorrow,” Ntime countered, before adding that BDP also captured avowed opposition constituencies such as Ngami and Kgalagadi South while most BDP strongholds have never been infiltrated by opposition.
Ntime also labels opposition as weak, slippery and not strong saying that the coalition looks set to implode in no time. He says that the bubbling dissatisfaction at BMD over its inclusion of BCP in the coalition has potential to collapse the coalition. He also says that BCP will most likely not arrive at the coalition intact while BDP will continue to receive disgruntled BCP and BMD activists and members.
While there is no hard-and-fast rule in politics, former Molepolole North Member of Parliament, Mohamed Khan says populism acts in the body politic have forced him to quit active partisan politics. He brands this ancient ascription of politics as fake and says it lowers the moral compass of the society.
Khan who finally tasted political victory in the 2014 elections after numerous failed attempts, has decided to leave the ‘dirty game’, and on his way out he characteristically lashed at the current political leaders; including his own party president, Advocate Duma Boko. “I arrived at this decision because I have noticed that there are no genuine politics and politicians. The current leaders, Boko and President Dr Mokgweetsi Masisi are fake politicians who are just practicing populist politics to feed their egos,” he said.
Former Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) parliamentary hopeful, Lawrence Ookeditse has rejected the idea of taking up a crucial role in the Botswana Patriotic Front (BPF) Central Committee following his arrival in the party this week. According to sources close to development, BPF power brokers are coaxing Ookeditse to take up the secretary general position, left vacant by death of Roseline Panzirah-Matshome in November 2020.
Ookeditse’s arrival at BPF is projected to cause conflicts, as some believe they are being overlooked, in favour of a new arrival. The former ruling party strategist has however ruled out the possibility of serving in the party central committee as secretary general, and committed that he will turn down the overture if availed to him by party leadership.
Ookeditse, nevertheless, has indicated that if offered another opportunity to serve in a different capacity, he will gladly accept. “I still need to learn the party, how it functions and all its structures; I must be guided, but given any responsibility I will serve the party as long as it is not the SG position.”
“I joined the BPF with a clear conscious, to further advance my voice and the interests of the constituents of Nata/Gweta which I believe the BDP is no longer capable to execute.” Ookeditse speaks of abject poverty in his constituency and prevalent unemployment among the youth, issues he hopes his new home will prioritise.
He dismissed further allegations that he resigned from the BDP because he was not rewarded for his efforts towards the 2019 general elections. After losing in the BDP primaries in 2018, Ookeditse said, he was offered a job in government but declined to take the post due to his political ambitions. Ookeditse stated that he rejected the offer because, working for government clashed with his political journey.
He insists there are many activists who are more deserving than him; he could have chosen to take up the opportunity that was before him but his conscious for the entire populace’s wellbeing held him back. Ookeditse said there many people in the party who also contributed towards party success, asserting that he only left the BDP because he was concerned about the greater good of the majority not individualism purposes.
According to observers, Ookeditse has been enticed by the prospects of contesting Nata/Gweta constituency in the 2024 general election, following the party’s impressive performance in the last general elections. Nata/Gweta which is a traditional BDP stronghold saw its numbers shrinking to a margin of 1568. BDP represented by Polson Majaga garnered 4754, while BPF which had fielded Joe Linga received 3186 with UDC coming a distant with 1442 votes.
There are reports that Linga will pave way for Ookeditse to contest the constituency in 2024 and the latter is upbeat about the prospects of being elected to parliament. Despite Ookeditse dismissing reports that he is eying the secretary general position, insiders argue that the position will be availed to him nevertheless.
Alternative favourite for the position is Vuyo Notha who is the party Deputy Secretary General. Notha has since assumed duties of the secretariat office on the interim basis. BPF politburo is expected to meet on 25th of January 2020, where the vacancy will be filled.
Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) big wigs have decided to cancel a retreat with the party legislators this weekend owing to increasing numbers of Covid-19 cases. The meeting was billed for this weekend at a place that was to be confirmed, however a communique from the party this past Tuesday reversed the highly anticipated meeting.
“We received a communication this week that the meeting will not go as planned because of rapid spread of Covid-19,” one member of the party Central Committee confirmed to this publication. The gathering was to follow the first of its kind held late last year at party Treasurer Satar Dada’s place.