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‘Odd number’ phenomenon behind BDP rule

The fire-breathing former Botswana National Front Youth League (BNFYL) President Kagiso Ntime says that an unknown and inexplicable phenomenon that has directed the fate of the country’s leadership will once again come out to thwart an opposition takeover in the well anticipated 2019 general election.

Ntime who has since joined the ruling Botswana Democratic party (BDP) says that the seemingly preordained dynamic continues to be overlooked in the mainstream political analysis. According to his analysis an enigmatic trend has charted the course of Botswana’s rulership, ensuring BDP’s retention of government control while strategically keeping opposition parties far out of reach of stately power.

He says that the phenomenon is such that opposition parties will always falter in the odd number election years as it has done in the 1989, 1999 and 2009 general elections and then will rise again from the ashes in the even number election years of 1994, 2004 as well as 2014.

He highlights that in 1989 the gains of opposition parties plummeted and then again surged in the general election year of 1994. Ntime continued to say that contrary to popular opinion the 1994 general election remains the best year that opposition parties ever came close to the reach of state power.

He reasons that at the time, BNF managed on its own to wrestle 13 constituencies out of a 40 seat parliament and was left with securing the remaining 8 constituencies. He also reasons that the 2014 general election cannot compare with those held in 1994 as the current opposition gains came by way of a united opposition parties.

Ntime said that the same electoral gains of the 1994 general elections were reversed in 1999 when the BNF split bore the Botswana Congress Party and BNF representation in parliament came crashing down again from 13 representatives to 6.

He went on to say that while BNF’s 2004 intra party squabbles critically hurt its electability resulting in a dented public confidence BDP still managed to win 12 out of 57 seats.

Ntime was referring to the fracas where the so called ‘Temporary Platform’ faction was fighting against BNF President Otsweletse Moupo. Members of the ‘Temporary Platform’ included Dr Kathleen Letshabo, Dr Elmon Tafa and Akanyang Magama among others. They were agitating for Moupo to step down from party presidency as they said he had failed the party, labeling him a weak leader.

In the 2009 general election BNF’s elected seats dropped again to 6.BNF subsequently was in the eyes of many seen as a dying party. It received a fresh lease of life after prominent attorney Duma Boko took its leadership and led it into a coalition with Botswana Movement for Democracy (BMD) and Botswana People’s Party (BPP) where it won 17 legislative seats in the 2014 elections.

Ntime opined that looking at this phenomenal trend which is yet to be broken he is confident that BDP will once again emerge the party on top in the next general election. “I believe this phenomenon is going to continue and perhaps in the 2024 general elections that is when we might have problems but as of now I am awaiting a scholarly analysis that can crack and make sense of it.”

While he conceded the 2014 opposition gains were “a commendable good work that is good for a democracy” he also crushed it with the same effort. He said that out of 57 parliamentary seats or constituencies, the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC), politicking as a three party coalition, with the endorsement of the all powerful Botswana Federation of Public Sector Unions (BOFEPUSU) it managed to garner only 17 constituencies failing to go near the BDP constituencies’ half margin.

He also continued that the belief of an opposition takeover in the coming 2019 general election, based on opposition’s capture of the Gantsi North, Molepolole North and South and Goodhope-Mabule constituencies is an unbalanced argument. He asserted that most people fail to grasp the political dynamics at play. “The margins are very slim and those constituencies can always go back to BDP even if there is a by-election tomorrow,” Ntime countered, before adding that BDP also captured avowed opposition constituencies such as Ngami and Kgalagadi South while most BDP strongholds have never been infiltrated by opposition.

Ntime also labels opposition as weak, slippery and not strong saying that the coalition looks set to implode in no time. He says that the bubbling dissatisfaction at BMD over its inclusion of BCP in the coalition has potential to collapse the coalition. He also says that BCP will most likely not arrive at the coalition intact while BDP will continue to receive disgruntled BCP and BMD activists and members.

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Civil Service volatility: Democracy vs Bureaucracy

19th April 2021
President Masisi

Here is how one Permanent Secretary encapsulates the clear tension between democracy and bureaucracy in Botswana: “President Mokgweetsi Masisi’s Government is behaving like a state surrounded with armed forces in order to capture it or force its surrender. The situation has turned so volatile, for tomorrow is not guaranteed for us top civil servants.

These are the painful results of a personalized civil service in our view as permanent secretaries”. Although his deduction of the situation may be summed as sour grapes because he is one of the ‘victims’ of the reshuffle, he is convinced this is a perfect description of the rationale behind frequent changes and transfers characterising the current civil service.

The result of it all, he said, is that “there is too much instability at managerial and strategic levels of the civil service leading to a noticeable directionless civil service.” He continued: “Changes and transfers are inevitable in the civil service, but to a permissible scale and frequency. Think of soccer team coach who changes and transfers his entire squad every month; you know the consequences?”

The Tsunami has hit hard at critical departments and Ministries leaving a strong wave of uncertainty, many demoralised and some jobless. In traditional approaches to public administration, democracy gives the goals; and bureaucracy delivers the technical efficiency required for implementation. But the recent moves in the civil service are indicative of conflicting imperatives – the notion of separation between politicians and administrators is becoming blurred by the day.

“Look at what happened to Prisons and BDF where second in command were overlooked for outsiders, and these are the people who had sacrificially served for donkey’s years hoping for a seat at the ladder’s end. The frequency of the changes, at times affecting the same Ministry or individual also demonstrates some level of ineptitude, clumsiness and lack of foresight from those in charge,” remarked the PS who added that their view is that the transfers are not related to anything but “settling scores, creating corruption opportunities and pushing out perceived dissident and former president, Ian Khama’s alleged loyalists and most of these transfers are said to be products of intelligence detection.”

Partly blaming Khama for the mess and his unwillingness to let go, the PS dismissed Masisi for falling to the trap and failing to outgrow the destructive tiff. “Khama is here to stay and the sooner Masisi comes to terms with the fact that he (Masisi) is the state President, the better. For a President to still be making these changes and transfers signals signs of a confused man who has not yet started rolling his roadmap, if at all it was ever there. I am saying this because any roadmap comes with key players and policies,” he concluded.

The Ministry of Health and Wellness seems to be the most hard-hit by the transfers, having experienced three Permanent Secretaries changes within a year and a half. Insiders say the changes have everything to do with the Ministry being the centre of COVID-19 tenders and economic opportunities. “The buck stops with the PS and no right-thinking PS can just allow glaring corruption under his watch as an accounting officer. Technocrats are generally law abiding, the pressure comes with politically appointed leaders racing against political terms to loot,” revealed a director in the Ministry preferring anonymity.

The latest transfer of Kabelo Ebineng she says was also motivated by his firm attitude against the President’s blue-eyed Task Team boys. “The Task Team wants to own the COVID-19 pandemic and government interventions and always cry foul when the Ministry reasserts itself as mandated by law,” said the director who added that Masisi who was always caught between the crossfire decided on sacrificing Ebineng to the joy of his team as they (Task Team) were in the habit of threatening to resign citing Ebineng as the problem.

Ebineng joins the Office of the President as a deputy Coordinator (government implementation and coordination office).The incoming PS is the soft-spoken Grace Muzila, known and described by her close associates as a conformist albeit knowledgeable.

One of the losers in the grand scheme is Thato Raphaka who many had seen as the next PSP because of his experience and calm demeanour following a declaration of interest in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) Secretary post by the current PSP, Elias Magosi.

But hardly ten months into his post, Raphaka has been transferred out to the National Strategy Office in what many see as a demotion of some sort. Other notable changes coming into OP are Pearl Ramokoka formerly with the Employment, Labour and Productivity Ministry coming in as a Permanent Secretary and Kgomotso Abi as director of Public Service Reforms.

One of the ousted senior officers in the Office of the President warned that there are no signs that the changes and transfers will stop anytime soon: “If you are observant you would have long noticed that the changes don’t only affect senior officers but government decisions as well. A decision is made today and the government backtracks on it within a week. Not only that, the President says this today, and his deputy denies it the following day in Parliament,” he warned.

Some observers have blamed the turmoil in the civil service partly to lack of accountable presidential advisers or kitchen cabinet properly schooled on matters of statecraft. They point out that politicians or those peripheral to them should refrain from hampering the technical and organizational activities of public managers – or else the party (reshuffling) won’t stop.

In the view expressed by some Permanent Secretaries, Elias Magosi, has not really been himself since joining the civil service; and has cut a picture of indifference in most critical engagements; the most notable been a permanent secretaries platform which he chairs. As things stand there is need to reconcile the imperatives of democracy and democracy in Botswana. Peace will rein only when public value should stand astride the fault that runs between politicians and public managers.

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Morupisi fights for freedom in court

19th April 2021

Former Permanent Secretary to the President, Carter Morupisi, is fighting for survival in a matter in which the State has charged him and his wife, Pinnie Morupisi, with corruption and money laundering.

Morupisi has joined a list of prominent figures that served in the previous administration and who have been accused of corruption during their tenure in office. While others have been emerging victorious, Morupisi is yet to find that luck. The High Court recently dismissed his no case to answer application.

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Pressure mounts on Biden to suspend Covid-19 vaccine patents

19th April 2021
Joe Biden

United States President, Joe Biden, is faced with a decision to make relating to the Covid-19 vaccine intellectual property after 175 former world leaders and Nobel laurates joined the campaign urging the US to take “urgent action” to suspend intellectual property rights for Covid-19 vaccines to help boost global inoculation rates.

According to the world leaders, doing so would allow developing countries to make their own copies of the vaccines that have been developed by pharmaceutical companies without fear of being sued for intellectual property infringements.

“A WTO waiver is a vital and necessary step to bringing an end to this pandemic. It must be combined with ensuring vaccine know-how and technology is shared openly,” the signatories, comprising more than 100 Nobel prize-winners and over 70 former world leaders, wrote in a letter to US President Joe Biden, according to Financial Times.

A measure to allow countries to temporarily override patent rights for Covid related medical products was proposed at the World Trade Organization by India and South Africa in October, and has since been backed by nearly 60 countries.

Former leaders who signed the letter included Gordon Brown, former UK Prime Minister; François Hollande, former French President; Mikhail Gorbachev, former President of the USSR; and Yves Leterme, former Belgian Prime Minister.

In their official communication, South Africa and India said: “As new diagnostics, therapeutics and vaccines for Covid-19 are developed, there are significant concerns [about] how these will be made available promptly, in sufficient quantities and at affordable prices to meet global demand.”

While developed countries have been able to secure enough vaccine to inoculate their citizens, developing countries such as Botswana are struggling to source enough to swiftly vaccine their citizens, something which world leaders believe it would work against global recovery therefore proving counter-productive.

Since the availability of vaccines, Botswana has been able to secure only 60 000 doses of vaccines, 30 000 as donation as from the Indian government, while the other 30 000 was sourced through COVAX facility.  Canada, has pre-ordered vaccines in surplus and it will be able to vaccinate each of its citizens six times over. In the UK and US, it is four vaccines per person; and two each in the EU and Australia.

For vaccines produced in Europe, developing countries are forced to pay double what European countries are paying, making it more expensive for already financially struggling economies.  European countries however justify the price of vaccines and that they deserve to buy them cheap since they contributed in their development.

It is evident that vaccines cannot be made available immediately to all countries worldwide with wealthy economies being the only success story in that regard, something that has been referred to as a “catastrophic moral failure”, head of the World Health Organisation (WHO), Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus.

The challenge facing developing countries is not only the price, but also the capacity of vaccine manufactures to be able to do so to meet global demand within a short time. The proposal for a patent waiver by India and South Africa has been rejected by developed countries, known for hosting the world leading pharmaceutical companies such US, European Union, the United Kingdom, and Switzerland.

According to the Financial Times, US business groups including pharmaceutical industry representatives, have urged Biden to resist supporting a waiver to IP rules at the WTO, arguing that the proposal led by India and South Africa was too “vague” and “broad”.

The individuals who signed the letter, including Nobel laureates in economics as well as from across the arts and sciences, warned that inequitable vaccine access would impact the global economy and prevent it from recovering.

“The world saw unprecedented development of safe and effective vaccines, in major part thanks to US public investment,” the group wrote. “We all welcome that vaccination rollout in the US and many wealthier countries is bringing hope to their citizens.”

“Yet for the majority of the world that same hope is yet to be seen. New waves of suffering are now rising across the globe. Our global economy cannot rebuild if it remains vulnerable to this virus.”
The group warned that fully enforcing IP was “self-defeating for the US” as it hindered global vaccination efforts. “Given artificial global supply shortages, the US economy already risks losing $1.3tn in gross domestic product this year.”

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