Between now and 2050, the working-age population will increase by 29 percent in Botswana, 36 percent in Lesotho, 53 percent in Namibia, and 43 percent in Swaziland, this is according to a World Bank report titled FOREVER YOUNG? Social Policies for a Changing Population in Southern Africa by Lucilla Maria Bruni; Jamele Rigolini; and Sara Troiano.
The report suggests that in South Africa the percentage figure will be lower, 28 percent, yet representing an increase of almost 10 million people. But even now, before these increases occur, unemployment is endemic.
According to the report, “Between a third and half of Southern Africa’s young males are looking for work but can’t find it. Many more, although not studying, are simply idle and out of the labour force. Employment prospects for young females are even dimmer.”
It further indicates that these unemployment and inactivity rates are high by international standards. In most low-income countries, unemployment is low—especially for males. In the OECD, only 20 percent of working-age males and 40 percent of females of that group are out of the labour force.
“Having so much of Southern Africa’s population (in some cases, the majority of the working-age group) out of the workforce hinders economic growth, equity, and poverty reduction. The economy is underutilizing a valuable resource—labour—while at the same time it needs to provide for a large number of dependents. And unemployment among youth means a double loss: the economy is forgoing not only the economic benefit of more workers, but the benefit of the very cohort that has achieved historically high levels of education.”
The World Bank report states that if unaddressed, this employment will soon turn into a full-fledged jobs crisis with long-lasting consequences. It says if youth do not find stable and well-paid employment, they will not be able to provide for themselves and their families.
“They will be unable to save for old age. And they will likely pass their precarious conditions on to their children, generating a vicious intergenerational cycle of poverty and vulnerability. This means long-term ramifications, spanning from social (poverty and vulnerability), to economic (low-productivity workers and low savings rates) and fiscal challenges (lower tax revenues and added demands on social assistance).
For young people now completing their educations, active labour market policies (ALMP), such as job intermediation and retraining services, can facilitate school-to-work transitions and ensure a better match between what workers can oï¬€er and what employers are looking for. For youth with gaps in technical expertise and “soï¬… skills” such as working within a group, dedicated training and job insertion programs can make a crucial diï¬€erence.”
According to Bruni, Rigolini and Troiano, Southern Africa also needs action to improve the human capital of the many workers who have already leï¬… the education system. They point out that the countries now have 40 million people of working age and many of them lack the skills for a growingly sophisticated global economy. Bolstering the employability of these workers will be a long-term challenge, demanding continuous and remedial education, labour insertion programs, and social assistance.
Invest in Youth’s Human Capital – Starting from the Early Ages
The report says tackling high youth unemployment and low productivity will require serious improvements in the coverage and quality of education. Fortunately, the dramatic fall in fertility rates will open up the fiscal space to invest more in the human capital of the country’s soon-to-be fewer children and its gradually shrinking youth cohort.
“In recent years, all countries in Southern Africa have made great strides in improving coverage of basic schooling. Most have achieved close to universal primary completion rates, but there remain important gaps in coverage at the secondary level. Currently, only between 20 and 50 percent of people born in the late 1990s manage to complete Grade 12. In South Africa, only 60 percent of the group born in 2010 are expected to complete that grade—and Lesotho will need to wait until the 2030 cohort to achieve that level. Making secondary completion universal will require continued investments for decades to come.
Addressing coverage alone will not suï¬€ice, however: all Southern African countries also score below international averages in measures of educational quality (Figure VIII). Lesotho, Namibia, and South Africa have among the lowest educational quality scores as measured by the imputed PISA metrics. Creating a solid human capital base requires years, if not decades of investment in education. It starts with building strong foundations for learning through early childhood development (ECD) services, which currently are oï¬€ered in very few parts of Southern Africa. It continues with basic education that provides solid cognitive and socio-emotional skills. Later on, education curricula must provide the more specialized skills that the labour market will seek. While enrolment in the region’s tertiary institutions— colleges and universities—is relatively low by international standards, it is steadily growing, and it is important to lay down ahead of time institutional bases that will bolster this sector and guarantee the quality of the education it oï¬€ers. It will be much more diï¬€icult and costly to improve badly performing tertiary institutions, than to get them right from the beginning.”
Southern Africa’s Epidemiological Proï¬le
In the next decades, the demographic transition in itself will not much aï¬€ect Southern Africa’s epidemiological profile, its unique mix and incidence of the various diseases and conditions that undermine public health. This is mostly because the aging of the population will proceed at a slow pace, the World Bank report suggests.
“As the simulations show, even if the spending profile across age groups were to rise to the levels of OECD countries, overall health care expenditures would increase only moderately. This does not imply, however, that the health sector will face no challenges. Changing lifestyles are adding new diseases that the health sector will have to confront. It will also need to keep up with old ones, which are not likely to fade out soon,” narrate the authors of the report.
The report further indicates that Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are becoming a growing cause of years of life lost in Southern Africa, while chronic malnutrition and communicable diseases (CDs) such as HIV/AIDS continue to aï¬€lict millions of people (Figure IX). It notes that young people are disproportionately at risk. New HIV/AIDS cases, for instance, are concentrated among this group, in large part due to continuation of unsafe sex practices. Redirecting the public health system will be no easy task. The service delivery model to tackle NCDs is very diï¬€erent and more expensive than the one used against CDs.
Rebalance Social Assistance across the Life Cycle
The World Bank report notes that countries in Southern Africa have generous and comprehensive social assistance systems. It says fiscal resources allocated to these programs are high in comparison with most emerging economies. ‘This is consistent with explicit policy priorities of the sub-region’s governments to assist poor and vulnerable people to achieve more equitable societies.’
“Social assistance is heavily geared towards supporting the elderly: resources per individual in the 65plus age group are four and a half times higher than those available to people aged 0-19 in Botswana and six times higher in South Africa. The ratio increases to 12 in Lesotho, 30 in Swaziland, and 38 in Namibia.”
The World Bank report further deducts that the lower resources allocated to children and youth help explain why cash transfers are too small to have much eï¬€ect on poverty among the younger generations. Apart from in South Africa, the impact on the nonelderly remains negligible. The “trickle down” eï¬€ect of old-age pensions to younger household members is oï¬…en called an important indirect benefit of pensions, suggests the report.
According to the report, “Overall, Southern Africa’s social assistance systems are geared towards a protective role and may miss an equally important role of promoting the human capital development of the younger generations. Well-designed cash transfers to children and youth can boost use of crucial health services such as growth monitoring checkups for infants, assuring healthier childhoods, and at later ages can help reduce school drop-out rates, in particular among the poor and vulnerable. ALMPs and continuous education programs can help vulnerable youth find places in the job market. Yet in Southern Africa these programs are rare.”
“What few of the countries have are often implemented in isolation from one another, which prevents tailoring assistance to the specific needs and vulnerabilities of each individual and following that person across the life cycle. Integrating social assistance programs into a well-articulated national system could bring significant gains in reach and eï¬€iciency. For vulnerable youth, social policies should go beyond the labour market to address the main threats to their welfare. These include unwanted pregnancy, HIV/AIDS, and low-quality education,” reads the report.
Parliament last week adopted the new National Energy Policy, a blueprint crafted to catapult Botswana to an industrial hub of alternative and renewable energy.
Presented by Minister of Mineral Resources, Green Technology and Energy Security, Lefoko Maxwell Moagi, the policy was hailed by lawmakers from both the ruling party and opposition ranks as long overdue.
Moagi, who is also Member of Parliament for Ramotswa, explained that the National Energy Policy (NEP) is intended to guide the management and development of Botswana’s energy sector, especially the penetration of new and renewable energy sources into the country’s energy mix in order to attain energy self-sufficiency and increased security of supply.
“The NEP is expected to create a conducive environment that will not only facilitate investment in the energy sector but also add value to export revenues, facilitate production in other sectors of the economy and create employment within the energy sector,” he said.
Moagi said that the new policy will set a foundation that will steer the utilization of locally available energy resources optimally and efficiently to ensure that Botswana attains a sustainable and low carbon economic development.
Botswana has experienced some constraints in the energy sector in recent years, which to some extent have negatively impacted the country’s economic development prospects.
A devastating power supply and demand mismatch was encountered between the years 2008 and 2014, and this breached the country’s power supply security even to date.
Moagi noted that this encounter, and other such misfortunes have motivated the new policy to outline the principles, prospects and choices that are required to optimise the role of energy in the economy and maximise Botswana’s potential for the desired economic growth in line with the country’s Vision 2036.
Commenting on the Policy Vice President Slumber Tsogwane said the new energy roadmap would contribute towards achievement of national prosperity and economic diversification.
“This envisages Botswana’s transition from being a net energy importer to being self-sufficient and having surplus energy for export into the region, we applaud the minister for bringing this important document,” Tsogwane said.
Botswana has abundant coal resources, estimated at about 212 billion tonnes. Estimates of 196 trillion cubic feet of coal bed methane (CBM) have also been recorded and there is ongoing exploration of this resource.
Most of the coal extracted goes to power generation at Morupule power plant and the remaining small percentage is shared between local industrial use and export.
For CBM, commercially viable gas exploration is required to firm up resource quantification and associated development programs around this resource.
Botswana receives over 3,200 hours of sunshine per year, with an average insolation on a flat surface of 21MJ/m2.
Satellite images have revealed that Botswana has abundant countrywide irradiation presenting the highest values of direct normal irradiance (DNI) and global horizontal irradiance (GHI) the western and south-western regions, with a slight decrease towards the east.
The lowest values of irradiation are in a range of about 2,000 kWh/m²/annum (~5, 5 kWh/m²/day) DNI and GHI on average. This amount of insolation is among the highest in the world, making solar energy a promising renewable energy resource for Botswana.
Reasonable wind speeds exist within the country with the highest wind resources potential located in the South-West, Central and Eastern parts of the country, with averaging wind speeds above 7m/s, wind power density above 200W/m2 and annual energy production above 4.5 GWh/year.
The wind potential has not been fully explored and has primarily been used on windmills for water pumping by farmers.
Botswana has theoretical biomass energy potential of 32 million GJ per year, estimated from a considerable biomass potential of 20 million tonnes per year.
The use of livestock residues (cow-dung) seems to offer the highest practical opportunity for energy production in Botswana, while municipal solid waste (MSW) can also contribute to the improvement of energy generation, especially at the city level.
Other residues such as crop and agro-industrial residues, only offer a limited energy potential that could be tapped by rural communities.
Botswana is highly reliant on imports of refined petroleum products to meet the liquid fuels demand since the country does not have any proven crude oil reserves/refineries.
By far, a large amount of liquid fuels supply comes from South Africa. As at 2018, the local consumption of petroleum products stood at about 1.2 billion litres per annum for petrol, diesel and illuminating paraffin combined, and about 20 million litres of aviation fuels per annum.
Commenting on the National Energy Policy, opposition members of parliament said effective implementation of the policy would require a legislation and/or regulations for robust development of the new and renewable energy subsector.
Moagi reiterated that the provision of energy services is capital intensive and heavily reliant on technology. “It is thus important to come up with innovative ways of delivering these services”
Currently, there is no research institution dedicated to carrying out energy research and development (R&D) to inform policy.
However, there exists various institutions or think tanks that carry out energy research from various perspectives.
These include Botswana Institute for Technology Research and Innovation (BITRI), the University of Botswana (UB), Botswana International University of Science and Technology (BIUST), Botswana University of Agriculture and Natural Resources (BUAN), and Botswana Innovation Hub (BIH).
Moagi shared that however regrettably, there is neither a clearly defined collaboration among and/or between these researchers nor is there any between the researchers, the industry and the policy makers.
Recognising that coordination of efforts in R&D is key to promoting innovation, technology application and development for deployment of appropriate modern energy services; the NEP seeks to aid coordination of research activities in the energy sector as well as facilitate development and establishment of academic/industry strategic research alliances.
Botswana Stock Exchange (BSE) moved swiftly this week to suspend BBS Limited from trading its securities following a brawl between Board of Directors and Managing Director, Pius Molefe, which led to corporate governance crisis at the organisation.
In an interesting series of events that unfolded this week, incumbent board Chairperson, Pelani Siwawa-Ndai moved to expel Molefe together with board Secretary, Sipho Showa, who also doubles up as Head of Marketing and Communications. It is reported that Siwawa-Ndai in her capacity as the board Chairperson wrote letters of dismissals to Molefe and Showa.
Following receipt of letters, the duo sought and was furnished with legal opinion from Armstrong Attorneys advising them that their dismissals were unlawful hence they were told to continue to report to work and carry out their duties.
Documents seen by BusinessPost articulate that in the meeting which was held on the 1st of April, the five outgoing board members, unlawfully took resolutions to extend their contracts by a further 90 days after April 30 2021 as they face tough competition from five other candidates who had expressed interest to run for the elections.
Moreover, at the said meeting, management explained that neither management nor the board have the authority to decline nominations submitted by shareholders or the interested parties which is in line with Companies Act and also BBS Limited constitution.
Molefe also revealed that as management they cautioned the board that it was conflicted and it would be improper for it to influence the election process as it seems they intended to do so. “Nonetheless, in a totally unprecedented move in the history of BBSL, the board then collectively passed the unlawful resolutions below. Leading to the illegitimate decisions, the board had brazenly directed that its discussions on the Board elections should not be recorded totally violating sound corporate governance,” reads the statement released by management this week.
When giving their legal advice, Armstrong Attorneys noted that notice for the AGM should state individuals proposed to be elected to the board and directors have no legal authority to prevent the process.
Armstrong Attorneys also noted that, “due process” cited by board members are simply to ensure that the five retiring Directors avoid competition from interested candidates to be appointed to the BBS Limited board. The law firm further opined that the resolution of the 90 day extension of term of the five directors pending re-election or election was unlawful.
Molefe expressed with regret that BBS has been suspended from trading by BSE until the current matter has been resolved. “I am concerned by this development and other potentially harmful actions on the business. As management, we are engaging with stakeholders to mitigate any negative impact on BBS Limited,” expressed a distressed Molefe.
He assured shareholders and the rest of Management that they are working very hard to ensure that the issues are being dealt with in a mature manner. BBS which hopes to become the first indigenous commercial bank has seen its shares halted barely four months after BSE lifted the trading suspension of shares for BBS following submission of their published 2019 audited financial statements.
According to Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of the local bourse, Thapelo Tsheole said the halting of shares of BBSL is to maintain fair, efficient and orderly securities trading environment. “The securities have been suspended to allow BBS to provide clarity to the market concerning the recent allegations which have been brought to the attention of the BSE relating to the company’s Board of Directors and senior management,” said Tsheole.
Meanwhile in their audited financial statements for the year ended 31 December 2020, BBS recorded a loss of P14.6 million as at 31 December 2020 compared to the loss of P35.7 million for the comparative year ended 31 December 2019. According to Molefe the year under review was the most challenging for the bank, its shareholders and customers endured the difficult economic environment and the negative impact of the coronavirus.
He revealed that as the bank, they were forced to put in place several measures to ensure that the business withstands the impact of coronavirus and also to cushion mortgage customers from the effects of the pandemic. “Since April 2020 up to the end of December 2020, BBS assisted 555 mortgage customers with a payment holiday,’’ he said.
This is the bank whose total balance sheet declined by 12 percent from P4, 626 billion for the year ended. 31 December 2019 to P4, 088 billion as at 31 December 2020. As if things were not bad enough, total savings and deposits at the bank declined by 14 percent from a balance of P2, 885 billion as at 31 December 2019 to P2, 494 billion as at 31 December 2020.
On a much brighter side, BBSL mortgage loans and advances improved from P3, 401 billion to P3.408 billion with impairment allowance significantly improving to P78, 648 million from P102, 532 million for the year under review, representing a positive variance of 23 percent. BBS maintained a strong capital base with capital adequacy ratios of 26.32% for the year ended 31 December 2020.
Molefe was optimistic and anticipated a positive outcome during the implementation of the new BBS corporate strategy, whose main drive is commercialization of operations, which is in full force. “It will be spurred on by the positive results we have achieved for the year ended 31 December 2020, and our planned submission of our banking license application to Bank of Botswana which we anticipate to operate as a commercial bank in the third quarter of 2021,” he alluded.
Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of Premium Nickel Resources Botswana (PNRB), Montwedi Mphathi, has said his company will resuscitate the formerly owned BCL assets and deliver a new, sustainable and cutting edge mining operation.
The new mine which will leverage on modern and next generation technology, will be environmentally sensitive and cognisant of the needs of its people and that of the communities around the area of influence.
In a statement last week, Premium Nickel Resources Botswana and its parent company, the Canadian headquartered Premium Nickel Resources announced that they have now completed the Exclusivity Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with the Liquidator.
The MOU will govern a six-month exclusivity period to complete its due diligence and related purchase agreements on the Botswana nickel-copper-cobalt (Ni-Cu-Co) assets formerly operated by BCL Limited (BCL), that are currently in liquidation.
On February 10, 2021, Lefoko Moagi, the Minister of Mineral Resources, Green Technology and Energy Security of Botswana, affirmed in Parliament a press release by the Liquidator for the BCL Group of Companies, stating that PNR was selected as the preferred bidder to acquire assets formerly owned by BCL.
“This is encouraging for the company and for Botswana. Our ambition in this new project dubbed “Tsholofelo” is to redevelop the former BCL assets into a modern, environmentally sensitive, efficient NI-Cu-Co-water producer where sustainability and the people are at the forefront of the decisions we make,” said Mphathi in a statement last Thursday.
“We also understand that no matter how successful we are at building the “New BCL” , our success will only be measured at our ability to create local wealth , skills and support the continued transition of local economy to a longer term sustainable base.”
The next step during the exclusivity period will be the completion of the definitive agreement. Simultaneous to this the PNRB will be conducting additional investigative work on site to further its understanding of the potential of these assets.
Specifically the company will complete an environmental assessment, a metallurgical study, a review of legal and social responsibilities, a review of the mine closure and rehabilitation plans and an on-site inspection of the legacy mining infrastructure and equipment that has been under care and maintenance.
Mphathi said they continue to monitor the global Covid-19 developments noting that they are committed to working with health and safety authorities as a priority and in full respect of all government and local Covid-19 protocol requirements. PNRB has developed Covid-19 travel, living and working protocols in anticipation of moving forward to on site due diligence.
“We will integrate these protocols with the currently applicable protocols of Ministry of Health & Wellness as well as District Health Management Team ( DHMT) and surrounding communities,” reads a statement released by the Gaborone based Premium Nickel Resources team.
PNRB is looking to become a catalyst in participating and building a strong economy for Botswana, with a purpose where respect and trust are core to every single step that will be taken. “Our success will mean following international best-in-class practices for the protection of Botswana’s environment and the focus on its people, building partnerships and earning respect, through cooperation and collaboration,” explains PNRB on its website.
“We are committed to Governance through transparent accountability and open communication within our team and with all our stakeholders.” Mphathi, a former BCL Executive, is widely celebrated for achieving unprecedented profitability at the mine during his tenure as General Manager.
The Serowe-born mining guru obtained a Diploma in Mining Technology from Haileybury School of Mines in Canada. He later obtained a B.Eng. Mining degree from the Technical University of Nova Scotia. Mphathi went on to City University in London, UK and obtained a M.Sc. in Industrial and Administrative Sciences.
Before ascending to the top country managerial role of Premium Nickel Resources. Mphathi was General Manager of Botswana Ash (Botash), Southern Africa’s leading salt and soda ash producer. He was at some point linked to Debswana top post, which is still to date not substantively filled following the death of Managing Director, Albert Milton, in August 2019.
With Mphathi out of the race and now leading the rebuilding of his former employer, the top post at De Beers- Botswana joint venture is likely to be filled by current acting Managing Director Lynette Armstrong, a seasoned finance executive with unparalleled experience in the extractive industry.
“We are happy to hear that former General Manager of BCL, Mr Montwedi Mphathi, has a relationship with the new Company that intends to resuscitate the mine, he is an experienced Mining Executive who knows BCL better, we want the mine to be brought back to life so that our people can be employed ” said Dithapelo Keorapetse Member of Parliament for Selibe Phikwe West recently in Parliament.
BCL was liquidated in October 2016 following a series of losses and government bailout occasioned by low Copper prices and allegedly poor Investment decisions and maladministration. Recently PNR CEO, Keith Morrison said his team of seasoned experts both from Canada and Botswana are committed to resuscitate the BCL assets and deliver a high performance mining operation.
“The World, Botswana and the mining industry have changed dramatically since mining first started at the former BCL assets in the early 1970s. The nickel-copper-cobalt resources remaining at these mines are now critical metals, required for the continued development of a decarbonized and electrified global economy,” he said.
Morrison added: “As we move forward, it is our goal to demonstrate the potential economics of re-developing a combination of the former BCL assets to produce Ni-Cu-Co and water in a manner that is inclusive of modern environmental, social and corporate governance responsibilities.”
He explained that to attain this, extensive upgrades to infrastructure will be required with an emphasis on safety, sustainability and the application of new technologies to minimize the environmental impact and total carbon footprint for the new operations.
“Our team remains committed to working with the local communities and all of the stakeholders throughout this period and we encourage anyone with questions or feedback to reach out to us directly,” he noted.