Connect with us
Advertisement

Managing risk, driving trade will shape African growth story

“A correct understanding of risk in Africa – along with an appreciation of the growth potential yet to be unlocked by trade; both cross-border and intra-Africa, provides global corporates with a new lens through which to identify and access African growth,” says Vinod Madhavan, Head of Transactional Products and Services Africa, at Standard Bank, parent of Stanbic Bank Botswana.

Corporates remain ever-interested in high growth emerging markets. Currently a large number of the world’s high-growth emerging markets are in Africa. Forecasts for 2016-2020 place Africa as the second fastest growing region in the world (at a CAGR of 4.3%), just below Emerging Asia.  

Impressive as these figures are, they are down on the growth highs achieved during the heights of Africa’s commodity super cycle. This has led many commentators to conclude that Africa’s growth story is tailing off.

“Nothing could be further from the truth,” asserts Mr Madhavan. “Africa’s future potential remains far larger than its past achievements – especially when one considers the growth potential latent in the continents current low levels of intra-Africa trade. Currently hovering around only 12%, these intra-African trade levels offer great headroom for growth.”

Global perceptions of Africa as high-risk, however, often prevent businesses from correctly identifying opportunity on the continent.  This is exacerbated by perceptions that trade in Africa is also complex and high risk.

The numbers, however, paint a different picture of African risk. 

The 2015 ICC Trade Register study, conducted amongst 23 banks around the world jointly accounting for 60% of global market share, for example, reports that:

•            export Letters of Credit as well as Performance Guarantees in Africa and the Middle East have the same default rates as the Americas,

•            default rates in purpose specific loans and trade finance deals amongst African and Middle Eastern countries is 1.04%, lower than in the Americas, and

•            import Letters of Credit in Africa and the Middle East have only slightly higher default rates than in Asian and Pacific countries.

Separate research shows that an increase in the availability of finance for cross-border trade drives a disproportionate increase in SME growth. For example, a 2013 Asian Development Bank survey found that a 15% increase in access to trade finance enabled firms to hire 17% more staff while production increased by 22%.

Since SME’s are the biggest drivers of employment, any increase in access to trade finance should rapidly expand Africa’s middle class, driving consumption and growth for generations to come.

“This is the grand prize that global corporates’ and financial institutions should keep in mind when assessing African risk,” explains Mr Madhavan.

Asian corporates have been quick to recognise Africa’s growth opportunities. Chinese and Indian corporates in particular have approached African risk and opportunity with confidence, leveraging Asian centres of excellence in risk mitigation, such as Hong Kong and Singapore, to manage this risk.

This is not to say that the rapidly developing intra-African trade opportunities presented by the continent have been lost on developed world corporates. “At a strategic level, developed world corporates are very keen to do business in Africa,” observes Mr Madhavan. Their challenge, however, is twofold.  Firstly, developed world risk models along with the unintended consequences of compliance produce an inordinately high view of African risk. Secondly, Africa is yet to develop the kind of sophisticated local or even regional risk mitigation and insurance industries that would enable global corporates to distribute their risk exposures locally – through continent-wide risk mitigation programmes using regional counterparties as they would in Europe or Asia.

Instead, developed world multi-national corporates currently manage African risk by spreading this amongst their partner banks in their home markets. This means that large banks from the developed world, for example, will only manage risk for their existing or home-based clients operating in Africa. Moreover, this will typically only be offered on either a specific entity or counter party basis in Africa.

“This makes risk mitigation programmes generally more expensive, less comprehensive and, ultimately, increases counter party risk for many developed world corporates seeking to do business in Africa,” explains Mr Madhavan.

Since Standard Bank is present on the ground across the continent it is able to work closely with African corporates, insurers and other businesses to identify and assemble competent risk mitigation counterparties/techniques in local markets – or at least across regions. “Since we know these businesses intimately we are confident and able to underwrite and place risk for longer tenors in the local market,” says Mr Madhavan.

An added layer of confidence is afforded by Standard Bank’s sector focus approach. As opposed to  looking at corporates in Africa exclusively through, say, a geographic lens, “Understanding that MTN and Shoprite in Nigeria face very different risks because they operate in different sectors, provides an additional lens through which to assemble appropriate local risk mitigation solutions,” explains Mr Madhavan. 

Standard Bank remains optimistic about Africa as it is seeing the growth from the inside.  Not having this inside view means that many observers conflate risks, “allowing the very real opportunities presented by Africa’s growth in trade to be missed, through exaggerated constructions of risk,” says Mr Madhavan.

Continue Reading

Business

Gambling Authority tender dangles as a jittery lottery quandary

30th November 2020
SEFALANA MD: CHANDRA CHAUHAN

Lucrative and highly anticipated national lottery tender that saw several Batswana businessmen partnering to form a gambling consortium to pit against their South African counterparts, culminates into a big power gamble.

WeekendPost has had a chance to watch lottery showcase even before the anticipated and impending national lottery set-up launches. A lot has been a big gamble from the bidding process which is now set for the courts next year January following a marathon legal brawl involving the interest of the gambling fraternity in Botswana and South Africa.

This content is locked

Login To Unlock The Content!

Continue Reading

Business

The uncertainty of getting the next meal in Botswana

30th November 2020
uncertainty of getting the next meal

Households representing more than half of Botswana’s population-mostly residing in rural areas- do not know where their next meal will come from, but neither do they take into consideration the quality and/or quantity of the food they consume.

This is according to the latest Prevalence of Food Insecurity in Botswana report which was done for the 2018/19 period and represents the state of food insecurity data even to this time.
The Prevalence of Food Insecurity was released by Statistics Botswana and it released results with findings that the results show that at national level 50.8 percent of the population in Botswana was affected by moderate to severe food insecurity in 2018/19, while 22.2 percent of the population was affected by severe food insecurity only.

According to the report, this translates to 27 percent of the population being food secure that is to say having adequate access to food in both quality and quantity. According to Statistician General, Burton Mguni, when explaining how the food data was compiled, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), is custodian of the “Prevalence of Undernourishment (PoU)” and “Prevalence of moderate or severe food insecurity in the population based on the Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES)” SDG indicators, for leading FIES data analysis and the resultant capacity building.

“The FIES measures the extent of food insecurity at the household or individual level. The indicator provides internationally comparable estimates of the proportion of the population facing moderate to severe difficulties in accessing food. The FIES consists of eight brief questions regarding access to adequate food, and the questions are answered directly with a yes/no response. It (FIES) complements the existing food and nutrition security indicators such as Prevalence of Undernourishment.

According to the FIES, with increasing severity, the quantity of food consumed decreases as portion sizes are reduced and meals are skipped. At its most severe level, people are forced to go without eating for a day or more. The scale further reveals that the household’s experience of food insecurity may be characterized by uncertainty and anxiety regarding food access and compromising the quality of the diet and having a less balanced and more monotonous diet,” says Mguni.

The 50.8 percent of the population in Botswana which was affected by moderate to severe food insecurity are characterized as people experiencing moderate food insecurity and face uncertainties about their ability to obtain food. These people have been forced to compromise on the quality and/or quantity of the food they consume according to the report on food insecurity.

Those who experience severe food insecurity, the 22.2 percent of the population, are people who have typically run out of food and, at worst, gone a day (or days) without eating. According to the statistics, rural area population experienced moderate to severe food insecurity at 65 percent while urban villages were at 46.60 percent and cities/town were at 31.70 percent. Those experiencing the most extreme and severe insecurity were at rural areas making 33.10 percent while urban villages and towns were at 11.90 percent and 17.50 respectively.

According to a paper compiled by Sirak Bahta, Francis Wanyoike, Hikuepi Katjiuongua and Davis Marumo and published in December 2017, titled ‘Characterization of food security and consumption patterns among smallholder livestock farmers in Botswana,’ over 70 percent of Botswana’s population reside in rural areas, and majority (70%) relies on traditional/subsistence agriculture for their livelihoods.

The study set out to characterize the food security situation and food consumption patterns among livestock keepers in Botswana. “Despite the policy change, challenges still remain in ensuring that all persons and households have access to food at all times. For example, during an analysis of the impacts of rising international food prices for Botswana, BIDPA reported that food prices tended to be highest in the rural areas already disadvantaged by relatively low levels of income and high rates of unemployment,” said the study.

According to the paper, about 9 percent of households were found to be food insecure and this category of households included 6 percent of households that ranked poorly and 3 percent that were on the borderline according to the World Food Programme’s (WFP) definition of food security.

Media reports state that the World Bank has warned that disruption to production and supply chains could ‘spark a food security crisis’ in Africa, forecasting a fall in farm production of up to 7 percent, if there are restrictions to trade, and a 25 percent decline in food imports.

Food security in Botswana or food production was also attacked by the locust pandemic which swept out this country’s vegetation and plants. The locust is said to have contributed to 25 percent loss in production.

Continue Reading

Business

Solid demand for diamonds towards the ‘gift’ season

30th November 2020
Diamonds

Global lockdown have been a thorn in diamonds having shiny sales, but a lot of optimism shows with the easing of Covid-19 restrictions, the precious stones will be bought with high volumes towards festive season. The diamond market is however warned of the resurgence of Covid-19 in key markets presents ongoing risks amid the presence and optimist about the new Covid-29 vaccines.

The latest findings published as De Beers Group’s latest Diamond Insight ‘Flash’ Report, which looks at the impact of the pandemic on relationships and engagements, has revealed that in the US that more couples than ever are buying diamond engagement rings. Bridal sales is mostly the primary source of diamond jewellery demand in recent months, De Beers said.

According to De Beers, interviews with independent jewellers around the US revealed that the rate of couples getting engaged has increased compared with the period when Covid-19 first had an impact in the US in the spring.

“In addition, despite challenging economic times, consumers were spending more than ever on diamond engagement rings – often upgrading in colour, cut and clarity, rather than size. Several jewellers speculated that with consumers spending less on elaborate weddings and/or honeymoons in the current environment, they had more to spend on choosing the perfect ring,” said De Beers.

According to De Beers, a national survey of 360 US women in serious relationships, undertaken in late October in collaboration with engagement and wedding website, The Knot. This survey is said to have found that the majority of respondents (54%) were thinking more about their engagement ring than the wedding itself (32%) or the honeymoon (15%), supporting jewellers’ hypothesis that engagement ring sales were benefiting from reduced wedding and travel budgets in light of Covid-19 restrictions.

When it came to researching engagement rings, online was by far the predominant channel for gaining ideas/inspiration at 86% of consumers surveyed, with 85% saying they had saved examples of styles they liked, according to De Beers. According to the survey, only a uarter of respondents said they had looked in-store at a physical location for design inspiration.

“For many couples, the pandemic has brought them even closer together, in some instances speeding up the path to engagement after forming a deeper connection while experiencing lockdown and its associated ups and downs as a partnership. Engagement rings are taking on even greater symbolism in this environment, with retailers reporting couples are prepared to invest more than usual, particularly due to budget reductions in other areas,” De Beers CEO Cleaver said.

According to De Beers Group, its Diamond Insight Flash Report series is focused on understanding the US consumer perspective in light of Covid-19 and monitoring how it evolves as the crisis evolves. Also, the company said, it is augmenting its existing research programme with additional consumer, retailer and supply chain touch-basis to understand the pain points and the opportunities for stakeholders across the diamond pipeline.

Demand for diamonds is as hard and resilient as the precious stone itself. De Beers pocketed US$ 450 million in its recently held ninth rough diamond sales cycle, and the company says it is more flexible approach to rough diamond sales during the ninth sales cycle of 2020, with the Sight event extended beyond its normal week-long duration.

“Steady demand for De Beers Group’s rough diamonds continued in the ninth sales cycle of the year, reflecting stable consumer demand for diamond jewellery at the retail level in the US and China, and expectations for reasonable demand to continue throughout the holiday season. However, the resurgence of Covid-19 infections in several consumer markets presents ongoing risks,” said De Beers CEO Bruce Cleaver recently.

High expectations are on diamonds being a sentimental gift for holiday season or as the most fetished gift. However the ninth cycle was lower than the eighth which registered US$ 467 million. For the last year period which corresponds with the current one, De Beers managed to raise US$ 400.

Continue Reading
Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!