The past two financial years have been rough for the country’s largest private sector employer and biggest foreign income earner, the Mining Sector. Before the nation woke up to shocking news of BCL shut down three weeks ago, Botswana had already stomached the liquidation of African copper mines, Khoemakhau and Boseto mines in a space of less than two years.
This operational termination came with the hard reality of massive job losses. Just when it seemed the halt of operations at the economic engine in the eastern side of the country was harsh enough, reports emerged indicating that Lerala mine, located at the far south end of the SPEDU region in Tswapong District, is also heading for closure and consequently job losses.
Lerala mine will be adding thousands more job losses to the mining industry’s horror archives, making a total of over 10 000 direct mining sector job losses to be recorded from 2015 to date alone. BCL is to account for over 5000 job losses, its subsidiary Tati Nickel Mine over 700 and already over 2000 job losses were recorded at Boseto and African Copper mines. More pressure has been piling on the government to accelerate economic diversification efforts and initiatives. Botswana Public Employees Union (BOPEU) leadership has cautioned the nation, decision makers and all stakeholders against the over dependence on the mining sector for economic sustainability.
BOPEU President, Andrew Motsamai, made this cautionary statement at a BOPEU Women & Youth Symposium held in Selibe Phikwe just after the announcement of provisional liquidation for BCL mine. According to Motsamai a mineral sector dependent economy is an economy headed for a dead end. Motsamai indicated that lack of readiness for mining sector’s ultimate crush is blight on the country’s leadership. “We knew that one day the copper and nickel deposits at the BCL will get depleted, but we did little to nothing as leaders of this country,” observed Motsamai.
He explained that BCL financial status and global market commodity prices are only short term problems, but the long term reality in all the Botswana mines is that mineral ore will get finished. “The sad fact is that mineral stones are not here forever, and if we don’t as a country prepare for the demise of this God given resource, we are heading for an economic crush, and we will have only ourselves to blame, not commodity prices,” said Motsamai.
The outspoken Union leader reinforced his sentiments by citing the example of Jwaneng mine which he termed as already in the afternoon of its lifespan. “if you analyze the situation at Jwaneng mine which currently pumps billions of pula into the government purse, you’ll realize that we need to diversify our economy as soon as yesterday. There will probably be no Jwaneng mine in 20 years and if we don’t ready ourselves, the knockout punch that hit Selibe Phikwe will hit Jwaneng.” The life span of Jwaneng mine, the world’s richest diamond pits (by value) is estimated to be just after 2030.
Leader of Opposition in Parliament, Duma Boko, has called on President Lt Gen Dr Ian Khama to take the blame and accept failure to run the economy. According to the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC) President, Khama has abandoned economic diversification and concentrated more on humanitarian give outs which he labelled as popularity stunts. Duma Boko told Weekendpost this week that president Khama as the head of state needs to account for all this countless job losses “I invite President Khama for a debate on this tragedies that are befalling our country, I am ready to give alternative counter strategies to the current crisis in our mining sector and our economy at large,” said Boko.
Opposition members have also accused Khama’s second in command for abandoning his job creation and economic diversification mandate. “The vice president is incompetent with his assignment of creating jobs for our youth, he has rather as of recent channeled his energy and state resources to recruiting opposition members to the ruling BDP, attracting them with lucrative offers,” said Dithapelo Keorapetse, Selibe Phikwe West MP, who is also the spokespersosn of the Botswana Congress Party (BCP). This past week, Monday, the Minister of Finance & Economic Development, Kenneth Matambo revealed in his opening speech at the legislators and stakeholders briefing on the proposed “long overdue” National Development Plan 11 before presenting the draft before parliament on Wednesday that the country will run at a deficit budget for the first three years of the NDP. Matambo further stressed the urgent need to find alternative means of generating income for the government as the current national main source of income is faced with challenges.
“We need to intense government revenues, and we need to do that with private sector based economic activities, totally independent from mineral revenue,” said Matambo. The state purse bearer also noted that government expenditure needs to be monitored intensively as every pula counts. He further indicated that his government is worried and thus will be more careful. ‘’It is the three consecutive years of running at a budget deficit for NDP 11 that this government is most worried about,” he said.
For his part, Keith Jeffries, Managing Director at economic & finance policy analysis firm, Ecosult Botswana, couldn’t agree more on the urgent need for economic diversification but insisted that he needs more time to analyse the National Development Plan. “Let’s wait for the unpacking of NDP 11, and analysis on government initiatives, there will be economic reviews coming up which will better inform our opinion and recommendations,” said Mr Jeffries who is former Bank of Botswana Deputy Governor and currently a renowned economic policy analyst.
The Chairman of Parliament Committee on Public Enterprises and Statutory Bodies, Samson Guma Moyo emphasised the need to diversify the economy away from the mining sector, “If we don’t find other alternative means of economic sustainability and growth, and only rely on minerals, we will not go past middle income status, lest we even realize an economic crush in the near future,” noted Guma Moyo who is also MP for Tati East.
The government of Botswana is pinning its hopes of achieving a diversified, private sector driven and sustainable economy on current initiatives such as the Special Economic Zones, Economic Diversification Drive, ESP and various investment and business development arms like the BITC, Botswana Development Corporation, CEDA, National Development Bank to enhance and accelerate foreign & domestic investment as well as economic growth.
The United States (US) will on the 3rd of November 2020 chose between incumbent Donald Trump of the Republicans and former Vice President Joe Biden of the Democrats amid the coronavirus pandemics, which has affected how voting is conducted in the world’s biggest economy.
Trump (74) seeks re-election after trouncing Hillary Clinton in 2016, while Biden (77) is going for his first shot as Democratic nominee after previous unsuccessful spells.
US Presidents mostly succeed in their re-election bid, but there have been nine individuals who failed to garner a second term mandate, the latest being George W H. Bush, a Republican who served as the 41st US President between 1989 and 1993.
Dr Mark Rozell, a Dean of the School of Policy and Government at George Mason University in Arlington, Virginia describes the complex US electoral system that will deliver the winner at the 3rd November elections.
“The founders of our Republic de-centralised authority significantly in creating our constitutional system, which means that they gave an enormous amount of independent power and authority to State and local governments,” Dr Rozell told international media on Elections 2020 Virtual Reporting Tour.
Unlike parliamentary democracies, like Botswana the United States does not have all of the national government elected in one year. They do not have what is commonly called mandate elections where the entire federal government is elected all in one election cycle giving a “mandate” to a particular political party to lead, and instead US have what are called staggered elections, elections over time.
The two house Congress, members of the House of Representatives have two-year long terms of office. Every two years the entire House of Representatives is up for re-election, but senators serve for six years and one third of the Senate is elected every two years.
For this election cycle, US citizens will be electing the President and Vice
President, the entire House of Representatives and one third of the open or contested seats in the Senate, whereas two thirds are still fulfilling the remainder of their terms beyond this year.
An important facet of US electoral system to understand given the federalism nature of the republic, the US elect presidents State by State, therefore they do not have a national popular vote for the presidency.
“We have a national popular vote total that says that Hillary Clinton got three million more votes than Donald Trump or in Year 2000 that Al Gore got a half million more votes than George W. Bush, but we have what is called a State by State winner takes all system where each State is assigned a number of electors to our Electoral College and the candidate who wins the popular vote within each State takes 100 percent of the electors to the Electoral College,” explained Dr Rozell.
“And that is why mathematically, it is possible for someone to win the popular vote but lose the presidency.”
Dr Rozell indicated that in 2016, Hillary Clinton won very large popular majorities in some big population States like California, but the system allows a candidate to only have to win a State by one vote to win a 100 percent of its electors, the margin does not matter.
“Donald Trump won many more States by smaller margins, hence he got an Electoral College majority.”
Another interesting features by the way of US constitutional system, according to Dr Rozell, but extremely rare, is what is called the faithless elector.
“That’s the elector to the Electoral College who says, ‘I’m not going to vote the popular vote in my State, I think my State made a bad decision and I’m going to break with the popular vote,’’ Dr Rozell said.
“That’s constitutionally a very complicated matter in our federalism system because although the federal constitution says electors may exercise discretion, most States have passed State laws making it illegal for any elector to the Electoral College to break faith with the popular vote of that State, it is a criminal act that can be penalized if one is to do that. And we just had an important Supreme Court case that upheld the right of the states to impose and to enforce this restriction”
There are 538 electors at the Electoral College, 270 is the magic number, the candidate who gets 270 or more becomes President of the United States.
If however there are more candidates, and this happens extremely rarely, and a third candidate got some electors to the Electoral College denying the two major party candidates, either one getting a majority, nobody gets 270 or more, then the election goes to the House of Representatives and the House of Representatives votes among the top three vote getters as to who should be the next President.
“You’d have to go back to the early 19th century to have such a scenario, and that’s not going to happen this year unless there is a statistical oddity, which would be a perfect statistical tie of 269 to 269 which could happen but you can just imagine how incredibly unlikely that is,” stated Dr Rozell.
BLUE STATES vs RED STATES
Since the 2000 United States presidential election, red states and blue states have referred to states of the United States whose voters predominantly choose either the Republican Party (red) or Democratic Party (blue) presidential candidates.
Many states have populations that are so heavily concentrated in the Democratic party or the Republican party that there is really no competition in those states.
California is a heavily Democratic State, so is New York and Maryland. It is given that Joe Biden will win those states. Meanwhile Texas, Florida and Alabama are republicans. So, the candidates will spent no time campaigning in those states because it is already a given.
However there are swing states, where there is a competition between about five and 10 states total in each election cycle that make a difference, and that is where the candidates end up spending almost all of their time.
“So it ends up making a national contest for the presidency actually look like several state-wide contests with candidates spending a lot of time talking about State and local issues in those parts of the country,” said Dr Rozell.
High Commissioner of the Federal Government of Nigeria to Botswana, His Excellency Umar Zainab Salisu, has challenged President Dr Mokgweetsi Masisi to move swiftly and lobby Africa’s richest man, Nigerian Billionaire, Aliko Dangote to invest in Botswana.
Speaking during a meeting with President Masisi at Office of President on Thursday Zainab Salisu said Dangote has expressed massive interest in setting up billion dollar industries in Botswana. “We have a lot of investors who wish to come and invest in Botswana , when we look at Botswana we don’t see Botswana itself , but we are lured by its geographic location , being in the centre of Southern Africa presents a good opportunity for strategic penetration into other markets of the region,” said Salisu.
As murder cases and violent incidents involving couples and or lovers continue to be recorded daily, Specially Elected Member of Parliament, Dr Unity Dow has called for more funding of non-governmental organizations and accelerated action from government to come up with laws that could inhibit would-be perpetrators of crimes related to Gender Based Violence (GBV).
Just after Dr Dow had deposited her views on this subject with this reporter, a young man in Molepolole opened fire on a married woman he was having an affair with; and ended her life instantly. While it is this heinous cases that get projected to the public space, the former minister argues that the secrecy culture is keeping other real GBV cases under wraps in many spaces in the country.
The former Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation said there is GBV all the time in all kinds of places. “We have become accustomed to stories of rapes, marital rapes, defilement of children, beatings and psychological violence and even killings,” she said.
Gender-based violence is a phenomenon deeply rooted in gender inequality, Dow is worried that there is absolutely no social punishment for perpetrators; they will continue to have the same friends, jobs, wives, homes, as before. Yet another factor, she said, is that there is little or no “justice” for victims of GBV.
The renowned activist said justice for GBV victims is not just the jailing of the perpetrator. “Justice for victims means an agile, victim-friendly, accessible (time, money and procedures) and restorative justice system.”
Asked what could be leading to a spike in Gender Based Violence cases or incidents, she observed that there is no one factor to which this spike can be attributed. “The most obvious factor is stress as a result of economic distress and or poverty. Poverty makes one vulnerable and open to compromises that they would otherwise not make. For perpetrators with anger management issues, economic stress leads to lashing out to those closest to them. Another factor is the disintegration of families and family values,” she opined.
According to Dow, no government anywhere in the world is doing enough, period. “We know the places and spaces where women and girls are unsafe. We know the challenges they face in their attempts to exit those spaces and places.” The former Judge of the High Court said GBV undermines the health, dignity, security and autonomy of its victims, yet it remains shrouded in the culture of silence.
Asked what could be done to arrest GBV cases, Dow said it is critical to involve and fund civil society organizations. She observed that much of the progress done in the area of women’s human rights was during the time when Botswana had strong and funded civil society organizations.
“The funding dried up when Botswana was declared a middle-income country but unfortunately external funding was not replaced by local funding,” she acknowledged.
Further Dow said relevant government institutions must be funded and strengthened.
“Thirdly, create a society in which it is not okay to humiliate, rape, beat or kill women. You create this by responding to GBV the same way we have responded to livestock theft. We need to create agile mechanisms that hear cases quickly and allow for the removal of suspected perpetrators from their homes, work places, boards, committees, etc.”
The former Minister said the much anticipated Inter-Ministerial Task Force on Gender Based Violence will have its work cut out for it. According to Dow, GBV is not just a justice issue, it’s not just a gender issue, but rather an issue that cuts across health, education, labour, economic, housing and politics. “As long as any one believes it is someone else’s problem, we will all have the problem,” she said.
In her view, Dow said every work, educational and other place must have a GBV Policy and/or Code of Conduct. “It is important that we acknowledge that the majority of men are law-abiding. The problem is their silence, in the face of injustice,” she observed.