By the time the curtain falls on 2017, President Lt Gen Ian Khama would have bid well to both his party, Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) and the presidency. He will only have a few months to clear up his desk at the country’s highest office.
This year, Khama will address BDP’s last congress as its leader, at a meeting in which a battle for power is anticipated. Khama’s imminent departure has seen a number of key figures in the party lining themselves up for succession, threatening the future of the apparent heir to the throne Vice President Mokgweetsi Masisi.
The succession plan is the brainchild of former President Ketumile Masire, who prior to his retirement led reforms which led to the amendment of the constitution. The new reforms diverted a potential perilous situation in the party in which BDP factional wars threatened the stability of the party and to some extend that of the country.
Festus Mogae and Khama ascended to the throne smoothly in 1998 and 2008 but the departure of the latter next year could lead to a different story. Unlike his predecessor, Khama has had three deputies, and there has been uncertainty regarding who he intends to leave the responsibility of the country and party to. Reports are rife that, although Khama has closely guarded his views; he is keen on opening up the succession. This has since attracted big fish such as Nonofo Molefhi, Tshekedi Khama and Jacob Nkate to challenge for the throne.
Khama’s biggest concern is to leave the BDP in a better position to prolong its stay in power beyond 2019 general elections, hence treading carefully with regards to the succession plan. Failure to manage the plan could spell doom for the party. With the opposition bloc uniting and BDP still trying to regain its claim following the dismal 2014 general elections, the party’s stay in power could be under serious threat for the first time since independence.
BDP’s revival mode is countered by a declining economy, marred by unprecedented rates of job losses and on other side, a hostile worker federation of unions, Botswana Federation of Public, Private and Parastatal Sector Unions (BOFEPPPUSU).
KHAMA’S 2017 CALENDAR
Khama’s busy schedule which commenced in August 2015 will continue this year and this time around the party leader is approaching the finishing line, hence all assignments should be delivered. Since August 2015, according to party Secretary General, Botsalo Ntuane, the president has been engaged in a series of mobilisation activities across the country. The activities include meetings with the Central Committee, regional tours, branch visits and other team building functions. Khama has addressed over 50 meetings since then.
The party will in the next seven months convene crucial gathering as all party organs; the youth league, women’s wing and the party itself meet for their elective congresses. According to observers, these three events will be heavily monitored as key figures eyeing the presidency are trying to win the support of those contesting.
As early as February this year, the party youth wing, currently led by Andy Boatile will go for its elective congress. There are some youth within the party who have defiantly started calling for reforms within the party and such activists could shape the agenda of the party if they emerge victorious.
The party will also meet for the Women’s Wing elective congress in March. The women’s wing currently led by Minister of Health and Wellness Dorcus Makgato remains, together with Youth Wing; a very influential structure in the party affairs. The battle for succession has been also been linked with the women’s wing.
Prior to the party congress, the party will also converge for the annual National Council where the party delegates scrutinise government and party polices and make some recommendations. A stage will be set when the party meets for its regular elective congress held every two years. The congress has generated much interest owing to its significance and impact of its outcome on the future of the party. The most eyed position will be that of party chairmanship, which currently is occupied by Masisi. The position has traditionally been associated with the vice presidency since the days of Peter Mmusi.
This publication has gathered that the position of the party chairmanship will be used as a starting point for consolidation of power as the party prepares for likely first party presidential elections. Since Masire’s departure the incumbent vice president has automatically ascended to the presidency and never been challenged during their presidency. Both Khama and Mogae concluded their two terms unchallenged at party level.
However, the BDP constitution states that when the party is in power, the President of the party shall be elected by secret ballot at a National Congress of the party called by the Central Committee during every general election.Ntuane has informed this publication that at this point in time it is too early for the party to reveal those who are interested in contesting party positions.
“Its early days, things will reveal themselves by February or March. There might be new faces we never heard about who want to go into the Central Committee,” said Ntuane, who also declined to comment on whether he will be defending his position or not.
KHAMA’S LEGACY AT STAKE
When President Mogae bypassed frontrunners for the second in command throne; David Magang and Ponatshego Kedikilwe, it was in the back of Professor Lawrence Schlemmer’s recommendation. The Cape Town based political consultant was engaged by the party after 1994 general elections to offer prognosis of the party in the lead up to the 1999 general elections.
The 1994 general election had dealt BDP a heavy blow and had its leaders’ egos substantially bruised. For the first time in years, the prospects of losing power to opposition party became real. Schlemmer’s recommendation will exalt Khama from the army to the country’s number two position. The report had recommended that BDP, which was riven with factions, bring someone with a strong personality and appeal within its fold to help unite the part. At that time the description duly fit Ian Khama.
Almost 20 years since his grand fashion arrival in politics, a lot of questions are hovering around as to whether a man who was brought in as messiah has succeeded. By the time he leaves office next year, BDP would have hit its lowest popular vote in history, and also had an offspring—something which was peculiar to the ruling party and ubiquitous within opposition parties since independence.
The BDP split resulting in the formation of Botswana Movement for Democracy (BMD) will remain a centre of debate in many years to come. BMD is part of Umbrella for Democratic (UDC), a coalition of opposition parties ready to battle power with BDP in 2019 in highly anticipated elections.
Khama will be looking at protecting his legacy and avoiding a situation where the party will lose power immediately after his leadership. The economy has stunted in the last few years and did not fully recover from the 2008 global economic crisis. Unemployment fuelled by job losses has added strain to Khama’s legacy and he has a very limited time to reverse the situation.
DID KHAMA HAVE SUCCESSION PLAN?
For the entire duration of his presidency Khama has closely guarded his plans and rarely let them leak to the public. He decisions have always been surprises. When Khama ascended to the presidency in 2008, it was generally expected that he will appoint his former boss Lt Gen Mompati Merafhe as his deputy. This was fulfilled. Few metres down the line, it became apparent that Merafhe will serve only one term. But it remained secret as to who would replace the former foreign affairs minister.
In the meantime, Jacob Nkate, a well-known Khama ally was left out of parliament after losing out in the 2009 general elections, and instead Khama opted for bureaucrats in the Specially Elected Members of Parliament dispensation. Nkate, the leader of Nkate-Merafhe faction, which rooted for Khama, was later sent abroad after expressing his desire to serve as BDP chairman. Nkate had earlier served as Botswana Export Development Investment Agency (BEDIA) now Botswana Investment Trade Centre (BITC) Chief Executive Officer where he left under controversial circumstances.
Merafhe’s departure ahead of schedule in 2011 due to ill-health saw Khama diverting his attention to his former nemesis, Kedikilwe as his number two. Kedikilwe had already expressed that he will retire from politics at the end of his parliamentary term at the time of his appointment.
Reports were rife that former Minister of Defence, Justice and Security, Ramadeluka Seretse was in pole position for the second in command position. Kitso Mokaila also got the nod from observes as probably number two, given his relation with Khama. However, the 2013 BDP primary election and the subsequent general elections left destruction in its awake. Both Seretse and Mokaila were among the victims, effectively ruling them out of the contest for vice presidency as the per the constitution demands.
After the 2014 general elections, Khama, in a move which surprised many appointed Masisi as his deputy. Masisi is now a few months away from the presidential seat and will become the man who became president after serving the shortest time of all previous presidents before ascending to the throne. Masisi would have served 3 years and four months as vice president before assuming the throne.
However, Masisi’s fate lies at the upcoming party elective congress where it will be a make or break for those with presidential ambitions.
Botswana Football Association (BFA) leadership appears to be bowing down to Nicolas Zakhem’s football pressure. The development comes to the open roughly 24 hours after the Gaborone United director publicly labelled Maclean Letshwiti and his committee failures for deciding to chop five premier league clubs under the pretext of club licensing disqualification.
As early as Wednesday noon, the BFA emergency committee met with one agenda item to discuss the possibility of reinstating the clubs. This publication gathers that the committee saw it fit to pardon the five clubs without entertaining a second thought. The committee even invited the clubs to the meeting, sources say.
Late last month, the five teams were disqualified from playing in the premier league, pending the appeal outcome. The teams are Notwane, Extension Gunners, BR Highlanders, Mogoditshane Fighters, together with Gilport Lions. The immediate decision by BFA follows what Zakhem had said and advised that it was wrong to chop clubs given the COVID-19 situation in the country.
Unbeknownst to BFA leadership, observers stress that Zakhem exerted public pressure and influenced them to change tone without asking. At the meeting, BFA president Maclean Letshwiti, his vices, Marshlow Motlogelwa and Masego Ntshingane, Aryl Ralebala, the Botswana Football League (BFL) chairman, together with Alec Fela, an ordinary member in the now stubborn NEC.
However, the reactive move by the association to reinstate the clubs is highly welcomed in certain quarters, but it also appears to have left a permanent scar, especially at BFL. As things stand, the general feeling on the ground is to oust chairman Ralebala for failing to defend these clubs before the eyes of President Letshwiti.
This publication has intercepted an ongoing petition to unseat Ralebala and his deputies from the BFL board. Strange enough, the signed petition has thus far attracted clubs with household influence in the league itself. GU, Township Rollers, Notwane, Extension Gunners, Police XI are some clubs that have already appended their signatures to have Ralebala removed.
The big clubs are believed to fighting for principle and demand fair governance at BFL. The reality is that these clubs command a large following, and sponsors can always have a say based on their presence.
When approached for clarity, Ralebala said he could not comment on allegations or issues that lack substance. He concedes that he has heard about the rolling petition but is yet to lay his eyes on it. “I have heard about the petition, but I don’t know where it is coming from. I think it is best you ask those who have signed it. My focus is to commence the league and make sure everything is on point,” said Ralebala.
Football observers state that Ralebala, together with Letshwiti, are now faced with a dilemma. Reports coming from Lekidi Football Centre, although yet to be fabricated, are that the big guns lead others to form a parallel structure where they will play on their league. The clubs are angry at their chairman for taking many of the instructions from the BFA boss, and already a general melee is gathering traction that the two must resign as football has lost direction.
Zakhem says, although he supported Letshwiti, he has a sense of duty to stand for the truth. “I knew I supported Letshwiti and his troops, but you see, these guys have lost direction. I have long advised them that chopping clubs like this will cause confusion and delay progress, but they cannot listen. Letshwiti gave BFL autonomy, but I do not know why he is still interfering,” Zakhem said.
You may, by now, have heard about the dark side of the high profile P100 billion case, but wait, there is also the brighter side. Staff Writer AUBREY LUTE explores the positives accruing from the fall of the country’s biggest financial ‘scam-dal’.
A chance to fix the country’s financial record
They have not publicly been saying it, but the state agencies and the President, Dr Mokgweetsi Masisi, have been at pains to explain and rationalise how an amount almost equal to the country’s GPD left the central bank.
Many insiders attributed the country‘s troubled financial status to the case, including the grey-listing, non-compliance and identified deficiencies, some of which were hitting citizens around the globe. Botswana was in 2018 taken aback by FATF news that the country has been listed alongside countries that do not comply with (AML/CFT). The European Union Commission later flagged Botswana in March 2019 for lacking strategic deficiencies in AML/CFT regulations.
A chance to restore the dignity of the law enforcement arms
The case, without a doubt, was a distraction object on the law enforcement agencies, which spent a chunk of their time bickering and finger-pointing. A leaked audio recording exposing the explosive meeting of the law enforcement arms of government, being the Intelligence Services, Corruption and Economic Crimes agency, and the Prosecutions division summed it all.
The case presented a monumental crisis threatening the core of their being. Following these developments, the Presidency, clearly under the influence of a tripartite member, took a spine-chilling decision to disband the DCEC, a move that was saved by the organisation’s founding director- Tymon Katlholo’s bold protest.
The DPP, the Police, and the DCEC staff were used in the process to carry out bizarre instructions, some of which left the state with an egg on its face. Mistrust and backstabbing were the order of the day within the law enforcement agencies, and the P100 billion case was to blame. “Some badly wanted the plot executed while the other side badly wanted it to end to restore sanity,” an insider says.
The source further adds that “if the case did not end soon, it was going to end a lot of people’s relationships and careers because those who refused to carry the insane instructions were seen as sympathisers to former President Ian Khama.” With the case having fallen, these agencies can reflect, reconcile and go back to work.
A chance to fix diplomatic relations…
It was not only South Africa that was accused of Sabotaging Botswana’s prosecutorial goal. The state also accused several countries of refusing or delaying to assist in the process. Of all the nations, only South Africa has decided to take Botswana to task, perhaps on its proximity to Botswana. Others long ignored Botswana’s requests for assistance to the frustration of former DPP deputy director who repeatedly told the courts that they were struggling to get responses from the international community. With the case having fallen, Botswana may get a chance to face her actions, apologise and rectify the promise that lessons have been learnt.
Pressure off the shoulders of those who have to account…
The case did not only affect the law enforcement agencies. All the stakeholders were put in the spotlight to provide answers. The first to bolt out of the circle was the central bank, Moses Pelaelo, who, like DCEC director-general, long declared the case a scam. He told the world that his books were in order and that no money was missing risking his high-paying job.
According to insiders, his superiors, the then Minister of Finance and Development Planning – Dr Matsheka and his subordinate, Dr Wildfred Mandlebe, were only whispering, without success, to the Gods that there is no money missing.
So concerned and under pressure was Dr Sethibe- then the head of the Financial Intelligence Agency- who, like his Ministry supervisors, was engaging in silent screams to warn the powers that be, all in vain. He later jumped the ship to his former employer, the University of Botswana, allegedly to protect his name and career.
At the time of the fall of the case, the DIS and the DPP were at advanced plans to higher American to come and probe the Bank of Botswana’s servers in a move that bankers feared could compromise them further.
The case was bleeding the country’s coffers…
Had it not ended, the case was likely to end up ‘genuinely’ costing the country P100 billion Pula duo to its complexity and challenges. Insiders say sources who had sold the law enforcement agencies some falsified documents were paid handsomely.
Moreover, investigations were costly as they involved the international community and frequent travelling. “We are told there was also motivation for some officers to act abysmally and out of their way,” an insider said.
Lessons leant for public officers…
Public officers are often duty-bound to obey superiors instructions, no matter how irrational. The case was an eye-opener to many public officers that principle pays in the discharge of one’s duty at all times. The professional careers of the P100 billion case conspirators are currently in shambles. And as expected, the influencers, if at all there any, are nowhere to be seen.
Botswana remains on the grey list of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) and the “black list” of the European Union, a status quo that highlights the country as one of the high-risk jurisdictions to deal with money.
The far-reaching implications of these listings is a compromised Foreign Direct Investment drive for Botswana. In particular, these listings mean investors now have to exercise some caution and restrain when thinking about putting their money in Botswana. On Tuesday, Minister of Finance and Economic Development Peggy Serame said that Botswana could see itself out of the “undesirable listing” by October this year.
Serame called for united and concerted efforts towards liberating Botswana out of this financial noncompliance tag. She said the delisting could be archived by concerted efforts from all stakeholders: players in the financial services sector, non-financial services businesses, regulators, and every individual who deals with transactions.
Botswana is a founding member of the Eastern and Southern Africa Anti-Money Laundering Group (ESAAMLG). This regional body subscribes to the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) to combat money laundering and financing of terrorism and proliferation.
One of the membership obligations to ESAAMLG is for Botswana to be peer-reviewed by the other Member States and other international bodies like the World Bank, IMF or FATF. The most recent assessment for Botswana to gauge compliance with the FATF standards was conducted by ESAAMLG in 2016 and culminated with publishing the Mutual Evaluation Report (MER) in 2017.
Following the discussion and adoption by the Task Force and approval of the MER by the Council of Ministers, the country was placed under enhanced follow-up. This led to a one (1) year observation period in which the country was expected to improve its technical compliance (legislative framework) by correcting the deficiencies identified in the MER.
After one year, in October 2018, the Task Force decided that the country was not taking sufficient steps to implement the recommendations made by the assessors in the MER. The Task Force recommended that Botswana be referred to the International Cooperation Review Group (ICRG) for monitoring and potential listing often referred to as the ‘FATF greylisting”.
Following the FATF greylisting, the EU placed Botswana on its list of high-risk third countries, often referred to as the ‘black list.’ In 2018, Botswana and FATF agreed to an Action Plan that had six items with several timelines. In terms of Risk and coordination, Botswana was told to develop and implement a risk-based comprehensive national AML/CFT strategy, assess the risks associated with legal persons, legal arrangements, and NPOs, and operationalize the modernized company registry to obtain and maintain essential information and Ultimate Beneficial Ownership information.
Botswana was further advised to enhance the capacity of the supervisory staff, including by developing risk-based supervision manuals and providing adequate training, implement risk-based AML/CFT supervision and impose sanctions against violations.
Furthermore, Botswana was instructed to improve analysis and dissemination of financial intelligence by the Financial Intelligence Unit, including operationalizing an online Suspicious Transactions Report filing platform and prioritizing high-risk predicate crimes, and enhancing the use of financial intelligence among the relevant law enforcement agencies.
Regarding terrorism financing investigation, Botswana was instructed to develop and implement a Counter Financing of Terrorism Strategy, operationalize the Counter-Terrorism Analysis and Fusion Centre, and ensure the Terrorism Financing investigation capacity of the law enforcement agencies.
In 2018, the 11th Parliament passed 25 pieces and, later, six others related to AML/CFT/CFP. At the just ended Parliamentary session of the 12th Parliament, lawmakers passed the Financial Intelligence (Amendment) Act to address the definition of beneficial ownership.
Cabinet approved the National AML/CFT/CFP Strategy of 2019-2024 in October 2019. At the June 2021 FATF Plenary meetings, the FATF made the initial determination that Botswana had substantially addressed the Action Plan and that this warranted an on-site assessment to verify that the implementation of Botswana’s AML/CFT/CFP reforms is in place and is being sustained. Furthermore, an assessment was to be instituted to check if the necessary political commitment remains to sustain implementation in the future.
Serame said in a televised press briefing that Botswana’s exit from the FATF grey list and the EU black list would be determined by the outcome of the on-site assessment, which will be discussed at the FATF Plenary in October 2021.
She revealed that the Botswana delegation attended the Eastern and Southern Africa Anti-Money Laundering Group 42nd Task Force of Senior Officials meeting from the 26th August to the 6th September 2021, followed by the Council of Ministers on the 7th September 2021.
She told the media that at these meetings, Botswana was commended for making progress in complying with the FATF standards by addressing deficiencies in her AML/CFT/CFP framework. “We are making all these efforts of complying with the FATF standards so that we guard against our financial system being used for money laundering, terrorism financing and proliferation financing,” she said.
“We are hopeful that at the October 2021 FATF Plenary meetings, the outcome of the on-site visit undertaken by the FATF in August 2021 will bear positive results, leading to Botswana being delisted from the FATF greylisting,” she said. However, Minister Serame called on all stakeholders to support the government to remove Botswana from the greylisting.
“As Government continues its efforts of putting in place the necessary legislative and institutional framework, due diligence must be exercised by all institutions, including the ordinary Motswana, so that no one is found dealing with financiers whose credibility is wanting,” she said.
The minister reiterated that all players in the financial services sector had a role to play: “It is important that where unsolicited funds are offered, the individual or entity so receiving the offer must ensure that the funds being offered are not associated with unlawful acts. If we are not diligent, criminals may use unsuspecting people and entities to launder proceeds of crime.”
She reiterated that the government is committed to doing all within its power to remove the country from the FATF “grey list” and the EU “black list”. However, she noted that to achieve that requires the cooperation and assistance of financial institutions, designated non-financial businesses and professions and individuals to ensure full compliance with AML/CFT/CFP rules and regulations.
“These efforts will not only assist us to be removed from these mentioned lists but are for the benefit of our country to maintain a high standard of financial prudence and an economy which genuine investors can have the confidence to invest in,” Serame explained.