Investment weakness in commodity exporters
Business
Introduction
Investment growth in commodity-exporting EMDEs has also slowed substantially, falling from 7.1 percent in 2010 to 1.6 percent in 2015. In about two-thirds of commodity-exporting EMDEs, investment growth was below its long-term average in 2015. Weakness in investment has been broad-based and includes both public and private sources.
Subdued growth prospects and deteriorating terms of trade, compounded by rising political instability, contributed to the investment slowdown. The fall in commodity prices, for instance, accounts for 1.5 percentage point of the total decline in investment growth in commodity exporters between 2011 and 2015. A 10 percent increase in VIX volatility index is associated with a 0.5 percent decline in investment growth within a year in these countries.
Weakening investment occurs at a time when many of these economies have major investment needs, especially in the areas of health, education, infrastructure, and urbanization (World Bank 2017). Despite stabilization in commodity prices over the course of 2016, a double-digit cumulative decline from early-2011 peaks created a major terms-of-trade shock for commodity-exporting EMDEs. A number of them are still struggling to adjust to the prospects of continued low commodity prices. GDP in commodity-exporting EMDEs is estimated to have grown by 0.3 percent in 2016, well below the 5.6 percent pace of commodity-importing EMDEs.
Against this background, this Special Focus section addresses the following questions: (1) How has investment growth in commodity-exporting EMDEs evolved? (2) What are the sources of the investment slowdown in commodity-exporting EMDEs? (3) Which policies can help reignite investment growth? How has investment in commodity exporting EMDEs evolved?
During 2003-08, investment growth in commodity exporting EMDEs reached historic highs, averaging 11.7 percent per year, more than twice the long-term average growth rate of 4.6 percent. The investment boom in commodity exporters reflected soaring commodity prices, which encouraged investment in resource exploration and development and, in anticipation of higher future incomes, non-resource projects (World Bank 2016).
However, investment growth in commodity exporters slowed steadily from 7.1 percent in 2010 to 1.6 percent in 2015. The deceleration was even more pronounced among energy exporters, where investment eased from 8.9 percent in 2010 to 1.8 percent in Investment growth in commodity-exporting emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) has declined sharply since 2010, and was below its long-term average in about two-thirds of these economies in 2015.
This slowdown reflects weak growth prospects, elevated uncertainty, deteriorated terms of trade, and increased private debt burdens, among other factors. Policymakers face weakened fiscal positions and generally above-target inflation levels and therefore have limited macroeconomic policy space to reignite investment growth.
Conditions should improve, however, in light of the expected recovery in commodity prices. In addition, possible fiscal stimulus in key major economies and potential positive spillover effects to other economies represent an upside risk to the global outlook (World Bank 2017). What are the sources of investment growth slowdown in commodity- exporting EMDEs? Headwinds to investment include weak growth prospects, severe adverse terms-of-trade shocks, rapid accumulation of private debt, and recently, heightened policy uncertainty in major economies.
Weak GDP growth prospects
Output growth in commodity-exporting EMDEs has slowed since the financial crisis, dropping from 8.9 percent in 2011 to 0.4 percent in 2015, levels well below the pre-crisis average (2003-08) of 11.5 percent (World Bank 2017). Decelerating output growth prospects accounted for about 1.3 percentage points of the slowdown in investment growth in commodity exporters since 2011.
Growth prospects in these economies have been dampened by a deteriorating outlook for major economies that are important trading partners, as well as sluggish productivity growth and demographic factors. In particular, growth in China has slowed in the face of weak external demand and policy measures aimed at shifting economic activity from manufacturing to services. This has reduced global commodity demand and generated adverse spillovers to commodity-exporting EMDEs (World Bank 2016).
In commodity-exporting EMDEs, private investment during 2010-15 accounted for roughly 78 percent of total investment. Some of these countries unwound fiscal stimulus only slowly in 2008-09 as public investment growth remained positive despite a slowdown during 2010-13. Since 2013, however, public investment growth in commodity exporters has dropped sharply and shrank in 2015.
In contrast, private investment growth has slowed more gradually from its post-crisis peak in 2010, a tentative stabilization in 2015 notwithstanding. Post-crisis investment weakness in commodity-exporting EMDEs occurs against a global macroeconomic backdrop that presents such obstacles as stagnant trade and heightened policy uncertainty.
Worsening terms of trade
As a result of the sharp commodity price slide from early-2011 peaks, the terms of trade—the ratio of export prices to those of imported goods and services—of commodity exporters deteriorated by 4 percent since 2011, on average. Oil exporters experienced a 21 percent plunge (Figure F6). These terms-of-trade shocks accounted for 1.5 percentage points of the investment growth slowdown in commodity exporters between 2011 and 2015, and 3.4 percentage points in energy exporters (World Bank 2017).
Rapid credit growth and debt overhang
On average, private credit in commodity exporters has increased by nearly 20 percentage points of GDP from 2000 to 2015. In about half of these economies credit to the non-financial private sector (as a ratio of GDP) grew more than 4 percentage points from 2015Q2 to 2016Q2.
This is well above the long-term average yearly increase of 1 percentage point (World Bank 2016). Credit booms since 2010 have been unusually “investment-less” in commodity-exporting EMDEs.1 Historically, when such investment-less credit booms unwind, output contracts more than when booms were accompanied by an investment surge (World Bank 2017).
Heightened uncertainty
Uncertainty has increased in many commodity-exporting EMDEs since the 2008-09 global financial crisis. This is a by-product of geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe, security challenges and conflicts in the Middle East, and acute domestic political tensions in several large commodity-exporting EMDEs. Deteriorated political stability in some commodity-exporting EMDEs may have accounted for 0.7 percentage point of the total slowdown in investment growth in 2011-2015 (World Bank 2017).
In addition, policy uncertainty in major advanced economies and in some major EMDEs has further weighed on investment growth in commodity-exporting EMDEs. For example, a 10 percent increase in the VIX volatility index can reduce investment growth in commodity exporting EMDEs by 0.5 percentage point within a year.
Which policies can help reignite investment growth?
Both external and domestic factors—low commodity prices, policy and political uncertainty, and weak growth prospects—are weighing on investment in commodity-exporting EMDEs. In the near-term, some of these headwinds are expected to diminish, but only gradually. Investment growth is likely to remain subdued. However, many commodity-exporting EMDEs have large unmet investment needs.
A number require investment in health, education, and infrastructure, and are poorly equipped to keep pace with rapid urbanization and changing demands on the work force. In addition, investment in the nonresource sector is needed to smooth a transition from natural resource-driven growth to more sustainable sources. Finally, a boost to investment, particularly private investment, would help revive slowing productivity growth.
Robust policy action, even in countries with limited room to mobilize domestic resources, is needed to accelerate investment growth prospects. Although the specific policy needs depend on country circumstances, a full range of policies are needed to improve investment growth prospects.
Counter-cyclical fiscal and monetary stimulus may not be effective given low commodity prices, diminished government revenues, and above-target inflation rates. On the other hand, structural policies could support investment by addressing the factors holding back private investment. These include measures to improve productivity and business climate, as well measures to reduce investor uncertainty.
Macroeconomic policies
Low commodity prices have weakened fiscal positions in commodity exporting EMDEs. Widening fiscal deficits and rapidly rising government debt levels leave only limited space for fiscal stimulus, despite the current low-interest rate environment. In about half of commodity-exporting EMDEs with sovereign wealth funds, assets cover less than one year of government expenditures. Absent fiscal space, shifting expenditures toward growth-enhancing investment or improving revenue collection, particularly in commodity exporters with low revenue-to-GDP ratios, can boost spending on public investment.
Alternatively, authorities can gear policy efforts to developing private funding sources for investment. Many countries still lack adequate frameworks for effective public-private partnerships, which can improve the effectiveness of public investment (Engel, Fischer, and Galetovic 2008). Like fiscal stimulus, monetary policy can boost growth and investment in a cyclical slowdown.
However, with inflation already above target (about 3 percent on average), most commodity-exporting EMDEs have limited monetary policy space . Several commodity-exporting EMDEs have elevated external debt. Insofar as a large share of this debt is denominated in foreign currency, it can restrict policy makers’ ability to allow currency depreciation in response to terms-of-trade shocks.
Structural policies
Structural reforms are particularly important for supporting investment in commodity-exporting EMDEs with limited room to deploy fiscal and monetary policies to generate stronger growth. Improving the business climate can both stimulate investment (domestic and foreign) and amplify the crowding-in effects of public investment.
It can also offer indirect benefits through higher growth, less informality, and more dynamic job creation (Didier et al. 2015). For instance, lower startup costs are associated with higher profitability of incumbent firms, greater investment in information and communications technology, and more beneficial effects of FDI for domestic investment.
Reforms to reduce trade barriers can encourage FDI and aggregate investment. Governance and financial sector reforms can improve the allocation of resources, including capital, across firms and sectors. Labor and product market reforms that increase firm profitability can encourage investment. Stronger property rights can encourage corporate and real estate investment.
Improved access to power supplies can increase firm investment and productivity. An important additional policy ingredient to strengthen prospects in commodity-exporting EMDEs is a robust fiscal framework for managing commodity price cycles that could turn commodity wealth into a steady flow of income and support long-term macroeconomic sustainability.
In addition, promoting innovation and growth in non-extractive sectors, investing in research and development, and facilitating links between various industries can be effective policy options to boost investment growth. Three factors are critical for maximizing the benefits from structural policies: (i) strengthening fundamentals (stable growth and inflation, an open trade policy, transparency and good governance, and financial stability); (ii) enhancing infrastructure (roads, communication, and access to electricity and water); and (iii) human capital (World Bank 2015). Progress in some structural areas has slowed in commodity-exporting EMDEs in recent years.
During the six years preceding 2011, policymakers cut the cost of doing business considerably. Since then, however, while improvements have continued in some EMDEs, they have proceeded at a slower pace.3 However, large reform spurts in commodity exporting EMDEs have historically been associated with a higher investment growth of 5.7 percent.
Conclusion
In line with the subdued economic activity, investment growth in commodity-exporting EMDEs has slowed sharply since 2010. Deteriorating terms of trade, rising private sector debt burdens, and growing uncertainty have contributed to this slowdown. Policies to remedy investment weakness in commodity exporting EMDEs could include both cyclical and structural actions.
However, commodity-exporting EMDEs have limited room to implement fiscal or monetary stimulus given eroded government revenues due to historically low commodity prices and above target inflation rates. Structural reforms to enhance business environments, encourage economic diversification, and improve governance are therefore necessary to spur stronger investment public and private investment, attract foreign direct investment, and improve longer-term growth prospects.
Adopted from a World Bank Report for 2017 Q1 – Investment weakness in commodity exporting countries – Commodity Markets Outlook
Business
New Khoemacau owners commit to mine’s multibillion Pula expansion
The future of Botswana’s largest copper and silver operation, Khoemacau Copper Mining, looks promising as the new owners, MMG Group, commit to the mine’s expansion plans. MMG, an Australian headquartered company owned by China, has expressed its dedication to doubling Khoemacau’s production and transforming it into one of the most significant high-grade copper operations in Africa.
Nan Wang, the Executive General Manager for Australia and Africa at MMG, stated that while the immediate focus is on maintaining a consistent production level of 60ktpa, there are solid plans to increase Khoemacau’s production capacity. The company aims to double its production from 3.65Mtpa to 8.15Mtpa, resulting in an increase in payable copper from approximately 60ktpa to around 130ktpa.
To achieve this expansion, Khoemacau has completed a pre-feasibility study on the project and a solar power initiative. The next step is to conduct a feasibility study, which will pave the way for increased production capacity. Additionally, Khoemacau has identified extensive exploration opportunities across its license area, positioning the company for an exciting new phase of development.
The current Khoemacau operation reached full production and nameplate capacity in December 2022, following over a decade of investment totaling over P10 billion. This significant investment allowed for an intense exploration program, resulting in the development of the most automated underground mining operation in Botswana. The first concentrate was produced in June 2021, and the product entered the export market in July of the same year. Throughout 2022, the company has been working on the pre-feasibility study for the expansion project, with the feasibility study scheduled for the following year.
The expansion plans will involve the construction of a new world-class process plant in Zone 5, where the current mining of ore takes place. This new plant will be larger than the existing one in Boseto, which currently receives ore from Zone 5. The expansion will also involve the development of new underground mines, including Mango, Zone 5 North, and Zeta North East. These additional mines will bring the total number of underground shafts at Khoemacau to six. The ramp-up of production from the expansion is expected to occur in 2026.
Khoemacau, which acquired assets in the Kalahari Copper Belt after the liquidation of Discovery Metals in 2015, currently employs over 1500 people, with the majority being Batswana. The Khoemacau Mine is located in north-west Botswana, in the emerging Kalahari Copperbelt. It boasts the 10th largest African Copper Mineral Resource by total contained copper metal and is one of the largest copper sedimentary systems in the world outside of the Central African Copperbelt.
The mine utilizes underground long hole stoping as its mining method and conventional sulphide flotation for processing. Resource drilling results have shown the existing resources to have continuity at depth, and there are several exploration targets within the tenement package that have the potential to extend the mine’s life or increase productivity.
The Zone 5 mine has already ramped up production, and further expansion in the next five years will be supported by the deposits in the Zone 5 Group. The estimated mine life is a minimum of 20 years, with the potential to extend beyond 30 years by tapping into other deposits within the tenement package.
In conclusion, the commitment of MMG Group to Khoemacau’s expansion plans signifies a bright future for Botswana’s largest copper and silver operation. With the completion of pre-feasibility and feasibility studies, as well as significant investments, Khoemacau is poised to become one of Africa’s most important high-grade copper operations. The expansion project will not only increase production capacity but also create new job opportunities and contribute to the economic growth of Botswana.
Business
Khoemacau Copper Mining to be acquired by MMG Limited
Khoemacau Copper Mining, a leading copper mining company, has recently announced its acquisition by MMG Limited, a global resources company based in Australia. This acquisition marks a significant milestone for both companies and demonstrates their commitment to continued investment, growth, and sustainability in the mining industry.
MMG Limited is a renowned mining company that operates copper and other base metals projects across four continents. With its headquarters in Melbourne, Australia, MMG has a strong track record in mining and exploration. The company currently operates several successful mines, including the Dugald River zinc mine and the Rosebery polymetallic mine in Australia, the Kinsevere copper mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo, and the Las Bambas Mine in Peru. MMG’s extensive experience and expertise in mining operations make it an ideal partner for Khoemacau.
MMG’s commitment to sustainability aligns perfectly with Khoemacau’s values and priorities. Khoemacau has always placed a strong emphasis on safety, health, community, and the environment. MMG shares this commitment and applies the principles of good corporate governance as set out in the Corporate Governance Code of the Hong Kong Listing Rules. As a member of the International Council on Mining and Metals (ICMM), MMG adheres to sustainable mining principles, ensuring responsible and ethical practices in all its operations.
Over the past 12 years, Khoemacau’s current shareholders have made significant investments in the development of the company. With approximately US$1 billion deployed in the project, Khoemacau has successfully transformed from an exploration and discovery phase to a fully-fledged operating copper mine. The completion of the ramp-up of the Zone 5/Boseto operations has set the stage for the next phase of expansion.
With the acquisition by MMG, Khoemacau is poised for an exciting new chapter in its development. The completion of a pre-feasibility study on the Khoemacau expansion and a solar power project has paved the way for increased production capacity. The feasibility study will be the next step in doubling the production capacity from 3.65 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) to 8.15 Mtpa, resulting in a significant increase in payable copper from approximately 60,000 tonnes per annum (ktpa) to 130,000 ktpa. Additionally, Khoemacau has extensive exploration opportunities across its license area, further enhancing its growth potential.
The CEO of Khoemacau, Johan Ferreira, expressed his gratitude to the current owners for their stewardship of the company and their successful transformation of Khoemacau into a fully operational copper mine. He also highlighted the company’s focus on the expansion study and its vision for the future with MMG. Ferreira emphasized that the partnership with MMG will ensure Khoemacau’s long-term success, delivering employment, community benefits, and economic development in Botswana.
MMG Chairman, Jiqing Xu, echoed Ferreira’s sentiments, stating that the acquisition of Khoemacau aligns with MMG’s growth strategy and vision. Xu emphasized MMG’s commitment to creating opportunities for all stakeholders, including shareholders, employees, and communities. He expressed confidence in Khoemacau’s expansion potential and the company’s ability to realize its full potential with the support of MMG.
The sale of Khoemacau to MMG is subject to certain conditions precedent and approvals, with the expected closing date in the first half of 2024. This acquisition represents a significant step forward for both companies and reinforces their commitment to sustainable mining practices, responsible resource development, and long-term growth in the mining industry.
In conclusion, the acquisition of Khoemacau Copper Mining by MMG Limited signifies a new era of investment, growth, and sustainability in the mining industry. With MMG’s extensive experience and commitment to responsible mining practices, Khoemacau is well-positioned for future success. The partnership between the two companies will not only drive economic development but also ensure the safety and well-being of employees, benefit local communities, and contribute to the overall growth of Botswana’s mining sector.
Business
BPC Signs PPA with Sekaname Energy
The Botswana Power Corporation (BPC) has taken a significant step towards diversifying its energy mix by signing a power purchase agreement with Sekaname Energy for the production of power from coal bed methane in Mmashoro village. This agreement marks a major milestone for the energy sector in Botswana as the country transitions from a coal-fired power generation system to a new energy mix comprising coal, gas, solar, and wind.
The CEO of BPC, David Kgoboko, explained that the Power Purchase Agreement is for a 6MW coal bed methane proof of concept project to be developed around Mmashoro village. This project aligns with BPC’s strategic initiatives to increase the proportion of low-carbon power generation sources and renewable energy in the energy mix. The use of coal bed methane for power generation is an exciting development as it provides a hybrid solution with non-dispatchable sources of generation like solar PV. Without flexible base-load generation, the deployment of non-dispatchable solar PV generation would be limited.
Kgoboko emphasized that BPC is committed to enabling the development of a gas supply industry in Botswana. Sekaname Energy, along with other players in the coal bed methane exploration business, is a key and strategic partner for BPC. The successful development of a gas supply industry will enable the realization of a secure and sustainable energy mix for the country.
The Minister of Minerals & Energy, Lefoko Moagi, expressed his support for the initiative by the private sector to develop a gas industry in Botswana. The country has abundant coal reserves, and the government fully supports the commercial extraction of coal bed methane gas for power generation. The government guarantees that BPC will purchase the generated electricity at reasonable tariffs, providing cash flow to the developers and enabling them to raise equity and debt funding for gas extraction development.
Moagi highlighted the benefits of developing a gas supply industry, including diversified primary energy sources, economic diversification, import substitution, and employment creation. He commended Sekaname Energy for undertaking a pilot project to prove the commercial viability of extracting coal bed methane for power generation. If successful, this initiative would unlock the potential of a gas production industry in Botswana.
Sekaname Energy CEO, Peter Mmusi, emphasized the multiple uses of natural gas and its potential to uplift Botswana’s economy. In addition to power generation, natural gas can be used for gas-to-liquids, compressed natural gas, and fertilizer production. Mmusi revealed that Sekaname has already invested $57 million in exploration and infrastructure throughout its resource area. The company plans to spend another $10-15 million for the initial 6MW project and aims to invest over $500 million in the future for a 90MW power plant. Sekaname’s goal is to assist BPC in becoming a net exporter of power within the region and to contribute to Botswana’s transition to cleaner energy production.
In conclusion, the power purchase agreement between BPC and Sekaname Energy for the production of power from coal bed methane in Mmashoro village is a significant step towards diversifying Botswana’s energy mix. This project aligns with BPC’s strategic initiatives to increase the proportion of low-carbon power generation sources and renewable energy. The government’s support for the development of a gas supply industry and the commercial extraction of coal bed methane will bring numerous benefits to the country, including economic diversification, import substitution, and employment creation. With the potential to become a net exporter of power and a cleaner energy producer, Botswana is poised to make significant strides in its energy sector.