In a stunning comeback after the shock resignation of the bank’s CEO, six cautionary statements and widely expected views that Standard Chartered Bank Botswana will report lower earnings, the oldest bank in the country has boldly stated that they are expecting higher earnings.
“In line with the Botswana Stock Exchange listings requirements, the Board of Standard Chartered Bank Botswana Limited (“the Company”) hereby advises shareholders that the consolidated results of the Company for the year ended 31 December 2016 will be significantly higher than those reported for the year ended 31 December 2015,” the bank announced in the latest cautionary note.
The upbeat note is a conspicuous departure from uncertainty that has been looming large over the bank following several cautionary announcements that the bank has significant exposure to the BCL Group that has since been put under liquidation. Standard Chartered Bank Botswana becomes the second bank to beat analysts’ projected lower earnings. Expectations were high that First National Bank Botswana (FNBB), the country’s biggest bank, will report lower earnings following revelations that it has significant exposure to the BCL group.
However, the bank beat analysts’ estimates by reporting a 9 percent jump in profit after tax. Another listed bank, Barclays Bank Botswana was the first to announce that it has no significant exposure to BCL and later became the first bank again to declare that they are expecting higher earnings.
The growth in earnings for major banks comes after three years of a tough trading conditions characterised by low interest rates, a moratorium on banking charges and fees, liquidity squeeze and low growth in personal incomes. While the banks continued to rake in the profits, they were lower compared to previous periods.
The decision by Bank of Botswana to lift the moratorium on banking charges and fees have allowed for banks to increase their non-interest revenue in a low interest rate environment. The banks are also benefitting from increased government expenditure to offset the depressed household incomes.
In its latest Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) for 2017, the central bank has indicated that it will continue with its accommodative monetary policy, a small risk to banks that were expecting interest rate hikes. The central bank says domestic monetary policy was conducted against the backdrop of below-trend economic activity (a non-inflationary output gap) and a positive medium-term inflation outlook.
Meanwhile the MPS report reveals that despite an accommodative monetary policy stance, annual growth in commercial bank credit decreased from 7.1 percent in December 2015 to 6.2 percent in December 2016, against a background of subdued economic activity and restrained growth in personal incomes. The slowdown in annual credit expansion was mostly associated with the decrease in growth in lending to households from 12.8 percent in December 2015 to 7.6 percent in December 2016, largely reflecting the effect of restrained growth in personal incomes.
“The lower rate of increase in lending to households was mostly due to a slowdown in the yearly rate of expansion in unsecured loans to this sector from 15.5 percent to 8.3 percent in the same period. Meanwhile, the annual growth in mortgage lending to households also slowed from 7.2 percent to 6.3 percent in the same period. The share of mortgages in total bank households' credit decreased from 28.8 percent in December 2015 to 28.4 percent in December 2016. The lower growth of mortgage lending appears to be consistent with the weaker residential property market in 2016.”
For businesses, year-on-year growth in lending accelerated from a contraction of 0.3 percent in December 2015 to growth of 4.2 percent in December 2016. Even then, while lending to manufacturing, “other”, and construction expanded, credit growth to agriculture decelerated, while it was negative for other sector. Notably, there was a significant decline in credit for the mining sector, mainly as a result of the BCL group loan repayment in December 2016.
“In general, the non-inflationary increase in credit for consumption as well as business investment and operations is positive for the economy. In the circumstance, accommodative monetary policy stance and restricted liquidity absorption through BoBCs was appropriate.”
The report concludes by projecting that growth in personal incomes will continue to be restrained, contributing to modest overall domestic demand, with a dampening effect on inflation in the medium term. Given prospects for benign external price developments, it is projected that inflation will remain within the 3 – 6 percent objective range in the medium term. The forecast incorporates the effect of the expected increase in fuel prices as well as water and electricity tariffs.
“Any substantial upward adjustment in administered prices and government levies and/or taxes as well as any increase in international food and oil prices beyond current forecasts present upside risks to the inflation outlook. However, there are downside risks associated with the restrained global economic activity, technological progress and falling commodity prices.”
In 2017, the Bank's implementation of the exchange rate policy entailed a 0.26 percent upward rate of crawl of the NEER to stabilize the REER, given that inflation is projected to be around the lower end of the medium-term objective range of 3 – 6 percent. The crawling band exchange rate policy supports international competitiveness of domestic industries and contributes towards macroeconomic stability and economic diversification. The MPC this week decide to maintain the bank rate at 5.5 percent
The recent study on youth entrepreneurship in Botswana has identified difficult access to funding, land, machinery, lack of entrepreneurial mindset and proper training as serious challenges that continue to hamper youth entrepreneurship development in this country.
The study conducted by Alliance for African Partnership (AAP) in collaboration with University of Botswana has confirmed that despite the government and private sector multi-billion pula entrepreneurship development initiatives, many young people in Botswana continue to fail to grow their businesses into sustainable and successful companies that can help reduce unemployment.
University of Botswana researchers Gaofetege Ganamotse and Rudolph Boy who compiled findings in the 2022 study report for Botswana stated that as part of the study interviews were conducted with successful youth entrepreneurs to understand their critical success factors.
According to the researchers other participants were community leaders, business mentors, Ministry of Trade and Industry, Ministry of Youth, Gender, Sport and Culture, financial institutions, higher education institutions, non-governmental institutions, policymakers, private organizations, and support structures such as legal and technical experts and accountants who were interviewed to understand how they facilitate successful youth entrepreneurship.
The researchers said they found that although Botswana government is perceived as the most supportive to businesses when compared to other governments in sub-Saharan Africa, youth entrepreneurs still face challenges when accessing government funding. “Several finance-related challenges were identified by youth entrepreneurs. Some respondents lamented the lack of access to start-up finance, whereas others mentioned lack of access to infrastructure.”
The researchers stated that in Botswana entrepreneurship is not yet perceived as a field or career of choice by many youth “Participants in the study emphasized that the many youth are more of necessity entrepreneurs, seeing business venturing as a “fall back. Other facilitators mentioned that some youth do not display creativity, mind-blowing innovative solutions, and business management skills. Some youth entrepreneurs like to take shortcuts like selling sweets or muffins.”
According to the researchers, some of the youth do not display perseverance when they are faced with adversity in business. “Young people lack of an entrepreneurial mindset is a common challenge among youth in business. Some have a mindset focused on free services, handouts, and rapid gains. They want overnight success. As such, they give up easily when faced with challenges. On the other hand, some participants argue that they may opt for quick wins because they do not have access to any land, machinery, offices, and vehicles.”
The researchers stated that most youth involved in business ventures do not have the necessary training or skills to maintain a business. “Poor financial management has also been cited as one of the challenges for youth entrepreneurs, such as using profit for personal reasons rather than investing in the business. Also some are not being able to separate their livelihood from their businesses.
Lastly, youth entrepreneurs reported a lack of experience as one of the challenges. For example, the experience of running a business with projections, sticking to the projections, having an accounting system, maintaining a clean and clear billing system, and sound administration system.”
According to the researchers, the participants in the study emphasized that there is fragmentation within the entrepreneurial ecosystem, whereby there is replication of business activities without any differentiation. “There is no integration of the ecosystem players. As such, they end up with duplicate programs targeting the same objectives. The financial sector recommended that there is a need for an intermediary body that will bring all the ecosystem actors together and serve as a “one-stop shop” for entrepreneurs and build mentorship programs that accommodate the business lifecycle from inception to growth.”
Botswana Housing Corporation (BHC) is said to have recorded an operating surplus of P61 Million, an improvement compared to the previous year. The housing, office and other building needs giant met with stakeholders recently to share how the business has been.
The P61 million is a significant increase against the P6 million operating loss realized in the prior year. Profit before income tax also increased significantly from P2 million in the prior year to P72 million which resulted in an overall increase in surplus after tax from P1 million prior year to P64 million for the year under review.
Chief of Finance Officer, Diratsagae Kgamanyane disclosed; “This growth in surplus was driven mainly by rental revenue that increased by 15% from P209 million to P240 million and reduction in expenditure from P272 million to P214 million on the back of cost containment.” He further stated that sales of high margin investment properties also contributed significantly to the growth in surplus as well as impairment reversals on receivables amounting to P25 million.
It is said that the Corporation recorded a total revenue of P702 million, an 8% decrease when compared to the P760 million recorded in the prior year. “Sales revenue which is one of the major revenue streams returned impressive margins, contributing to the overall growth in the gross margin,” added Kgamanyane.
He further stated professional fees revenue line declined significantly by 64% to P5 million from P14 million in the prior year which attributed to suspension of planned projects by their clients due to Covid-19 pandemic. “Facilities Management revenue decreased by P 24 million from P69 million recorded in prior year to P45 million due to reduction in projects,” Kgamanyane said.
The Corporation’s strength is on its investment properties portfolio that stood at P1.4 billion at the end of the reporting period. “The Corporation continues its strategy to diversify revenue streams despite both facilities management income and professional fees being challenged by the prevailing economic conditions that have seen its major clients curtailing spending,” added the CEO.
On the one hand, the Corporation’s Strategic Performance which intended to build 12 300 houses by 2023 has so far managed to build 4 830 houses under their SHHA funding scheme, 1 240 houses for commercial or external use which includes use by government and 1 970 houses to rent to individuals.
BHC Acting CEO Pascaline Sefawe noted that; BHC’s planned projects are said to include building 336 flat units in Gaborone Block 7 at approximately P224 million, 100 units in Maun at approximately P78 million, 13 units in Phakalane at approximately P26 million, 212 units in Kazungula at approximately P160 million, 96 units at approximately P42 million in Francistown and 84 units at approximately P61 million in Letlhakane. Emphasing; “People tend to accuse us of only building houses in Gaborone, so here we are, including other areas in our planned projects.”
Researchers from some government owned regulatory institutions in the financial sector have projected that the banking sector’s profitability could increase, following Bank of Botswana Monetary Policy Committee recent decision to increase monetary policy rate.
In its bid to manage inflation, Bank of Botswana Monetary Policy Committee last month increased monetary policy rate by 0.50 percent from 1.65 percent to 2.15 percent, a development which resulted with commercial banking sector increasing interest rate in lending to household and companies. As a result of BoB adjustment of Monetary Policy Rate, from 1.65 percent to 2.15 percent commercial banks increased prime lending rate from 5.76 percent to 6.26 percent.
Researchers from Bank of Botswana, the Non-Bank Financial Institutions Regulatory Authority, the Financial Intelligence Agency and the Botswana Stock Exchange indicated that due to prospects of high inflation during the second half of 2022, there is a possibility that the Monetary Policy Committee could further increase monetary policy rate in the next meeting in August 25 2022.
Inflation rose from 9.6 percent in April 2022 to 11.9 percent in May 2022, remaining above the Bank of Botswana medium-term objective range of 3 – 6 percent. According to the researchers inflation could increase further and remain high due to factors that include: the potential increase in international commodity prices beyond current forecasts, logistical constraints due to lags in production, the economic and price effects of the ongoing Russia- Ukraine conflict, uncertain COVID-19 profile, domestic risk factors relating to possible regular annual administered price adjustments, short-term unintended consequences of import restrictions resulting with shortages in supplies leading to price increases, as well as second-round effects of the recent increases in administered prices “Furthermore, the likelihood of further increases in domestic fuel prices in response to persistent high international oil prices could add upward pressure to inflation,” said the researchers.
The researchers indicated that Bank of Botswana could be forced to further increase monetary policy rate from the current 2.15 percent if inflation rises persistently. “Should inflation rise persistently this could necessitate an upward adjustment in the policy rate. It is against this background that the interest rate scenario assumes a 1.5 percentage points (moderate scenario) and 2.25 percentage points (severe scenario) upward adjustment in the policy rate,” said the researchers.
The researchers indicated that while any upward adjustment on BoB monetary policy rate and commercial banks prime lending rate result with increase in the cost of borrowing for household and compnies, it increase profitability for the banking sector. “Increases in the policy rate are associated with an overall increase in bank profitability, with resultant increases in the capital adequacy ratio of 0.1 percentage points and 0.2 percentage points for the moderate and severe scenarios, respectively,” said the researchers who added that upward adjustment in monetary policy rate would raise extra capital for the banking sector.
“The increase in profit generally reflects the banking industry’s positive interest rate gap, where interest earning assets exceed interest earning liabilities maturing in the next twelve months. Therefore, an increase of 1.5 percentage points in the policy rate would result in industry gains of P71.7 million (4.1 percent increase), while a 2.25 percentage points increase would lead to a gain of P173.9 million (6.1 percent increase), dominated by large banks,” said the researchers.