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No future for mining beyond 2050 – experts

Botswana‘s economic future is persistently put in doubt by some international commentators. As far as national income generation and provision of sustainable jobs are concerned, there are no guarantees.


Currently the mixed structured open economy is largely dependent on mineral revenue mainly from the diamond sector for foreign income generation and the government dominates, coordinates and regulates almost every sector of the middle income economy that Botswana is. This current setup in which the diamond sector alone is responsible for a quarter of the national treasury and is the largest single private sector employer is constantly viewed as an economic danger looming.


This sentiments were echoed again recently at a discussion hosted by the World Bank Group where they also released Botswana Mining Investment & Governance Review report. According to reports from the gathering it was emphasized that Botswana needed to move with speed and unearth other sources of revenue and income generation to breathe life into an economy that could otherwise be  lifeless in a decade or two to come.


Specially Elected Member of Parliament, Ms Bogolo Kenewendo weighed on the same, urging that plans for a Botswana beyond Mining need to unfold as soon as yesterday. “We need to plan for a future that has a broader and diverse economy with a variety of sectors contributing significantly to the country‘s revenue pot,” she said. Kenewendo, a shrewd economic expert was also quoted saying that it was no longer a matter of choice to diversify the economy but an obligation.


 “We need to find ways for mining revenue to trickle down to the rest of the citizenry and also increase the impact of mining revenues on areas where mines in Botswana are situated. Business linkages and cluster developments need to show evidence at rich mineral areas,” she said.


According to the youngest legislator in parliament, Botswana needs to devise ways in which mining revenues would benefit the rest of citizenry apart from free basic service, she said that would be archived by sharing national wealth with its people and wealth creation at an ordinary individual level.


Though mineral revenue increased by 63 % in 2016 financial year, with government pocketing tens of billions from mineral tax, dividends and mining royalties and recent figures presenting a positive outlook for most companies and stable profitability for Botswana’s largest mining company Debswana, fluctuating market commodity prices and closure of some mining companies raise concern over an uncertain future for Botswana’s economy.


2016 saw liquidation and shut down of some mining companies especially copper and nickel companies due to low commodity prices. BCL Mine, Tati Nickel, Mowana are some of the victims. Meanwhile some have been reported to be on the brink of reopening soon.
 Debswana’s Damtshaa Mine has been put under care and maintenance. Debswana also reported a fortnight ago that their Letlhakane Mine, popularly known as DK 1, has reached the end of its lifespan with tailings project to take the operations not beyond 20 years to come.


Already prospected kimberlitic and precious deposits at the world’s largest diamond mine by value, Jwaneng Mine place the mine not beyond 2034 (Cut 8). All these factors and others which experts term unforeseen economic circumstances,  expose Botswana to be vulnerable to a possible economic crush in a few decades to come unless  something major is done to transform the economy and diversify national revenue sources.


At the Mining Investment & Governance Review report, Kenewendo observed that the World Bank Group’s Botswana Mining Investment and Governance Review report was expected to help government improve the sector’s performance  and to attract further investment.
According to the review by the world economic think tank, even the Mining sector itself is poorly managed here in Botswana.

 

It was pointed out that ordinary Batswana citizens and remote area settlers were just spectators in the Mining industry wealth creation symposium. The World Bank observes that Mining contractors and big money business partnerships in the mining sector are largely enjoyed by foreign owned enterprises which collect millions and invest them across borders or in their native countries.


The review indicates that Botswana Government regulations and policies are not structured in a way that locals benefit from doing business with mining companies especially in areas of procurement, supplies, as well as human resource as foreign national continues to enjoy preference in highly technical and skilled areas of mining human resource.


Permanent Secretary in the Ministry of Mineral Resources, Green Technology and Energy Security, Mr Kgomotso Abi agreed with the sentiments adding that Botswana needs to strengthen performance and address issues of concern to investors.
“We need to build an environment that will stimulate more investment in mineral extraction,” he said.


World Bank Country Representative, Ms Elene Imnadze said even though the mining sector immensely contributed to the development of Botswana, more still needs to be done to ensure mineral beneficiation, as well as secure a future for Botswana beyond mining.
“Other mines, more especially the copper ones, have had to close down due to low commodity prices. The copper mines, including BCL which is under provisional liquidation, remain closed even though base metal prices are beginning to increase slightly,” she continued.


According to the expert, government has to find ways of diversifying the economy and the capital generated from the mining sector should be invested into sectors that would be sustained beyond mining. She said this could be done by employing more people, building local suppliers and strengthening small and medium enterprises.  Botswana’s Mining Investment and Governance Review was compiled to help strengthen the mining sector’s governance, investment, environment and development impact in Botswana.


It reviewed sector performance from the perspective of three main stakeholder groups -government, investors in the mining value chain, and civil society and it identifies gaps between declared and actual government policy and practice. In 2015 Government of Botswana established the Mineral Development Company as a wholly state owned independent company to manage Botswana is multibillion Pula mining sector portfolio.


The company which is still undergoing full setting up, resourcing its personnel and defining its area of business is expected to manage all government shares in the mining sector and also transform the sector to fully benefit Batswana and the economy. Since establishment MDCB has being facing challenges of formative obstacles especially in the area of securing prominent personnel for the sensitive mandate it’s geared to deliver. Recently MDCB was reported to have licked out its controversial CEO Paul Smith who is constantly blamed for liquidating Botswana’s oldest copper mining giant BCL Mine.

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Inflation will bounce back to objective range in 2022- BoB

25th October 2021
Moses Pelaelo

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of Botswana decided to maintain the Bank Rate at 3.75 percent at a meeting held on October 21, 2021.  Briefing members of the media moments after the meeting Bank of Botswana Governor Moses Pelaelo explained that Inflation decreased from 8.8 percent in August to 8.4 percent in September 2021, although remaining above the upper bound of the Bank’s medium-term objective range of 3 – 6 percent.

He said Inflation is projected to revert to within the objective range in the second quarter of 2022, mainly on account of the dissipating impact of the recent upward adjustment in value added tax (VAT) and administered prices from the inflation calculation; which altogether contributed 5.2 percentage points to the current level of inflation.  Overall, risks to the inflation outlook are assessed to be skewed to the upside.

These risks include the potential increase in international commodity prices beyond current forecasts; persistence of supply and logistical constraints due to lags in production; possible maintenance of travel restrictions and lockdowns due to the COVID-19 pandemic; domestic risk factors relating to regular annual price adjustments; as well as second-round effects of the recent increases in administered prices and inflation expectations that could lead to generalised higher price adjustments.

Furthermore, aggressive action by governments (for example, the Economic Recovery and Transformation Plan (ERTP)) and major central banks to bolster aggregate demand, as well as the successful rollout of the COVID-19 vaccination programmes, could add pressure to inflation.  These risks are, however, moderated by the possibility of weak domestic and global economic activity, with a likely further dampening effect on productivity due to periodic lockdowns and other forms of restrictions in response to the emergence of new COVID-19 variants.

A slow rollout of vaccines, resulting in the continuance of weak economic activity and the possible decline in international commodity prices could also result in lower inflation, as would capacity constraints in implementing the ERTP initiatives. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Botswana grew by 4.9 percent in the twelve months to June 2021, compared to a contraction of 5.1 percent in the corresponding period in 2020.

The increase in output is attributable to the expansion in production of both the mining and non-mining sectors, resulting from an improved performance of the economy from a low base in the corresponding period in the previous year. Mining output increased by 3 percent in the year to June 2021, because of a 3.2 percent increase in diamond mining output, compared to a contraction of 19.3 percent in 2020. Similarly, non-mining GDP grew by 5.4 percent in the twelve-month period ending June 2021, compared to a decrease of 0.7 percent in the corresponding period in 2020.

The increase in non-mining GDP was mainly due to expansion in output for construction, diamond traders, transport and storage, wholesale and retail and real estate.  Projections by the Ministry of Finance and Economic Development and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) suggest a rebound in economic growth for Botswana in 2021. The Ministry projects a growth rate of 9.7 percent in 2021, moderating to a growth of 4.3 percent in 2022.  On the other hand, the IMF forecasts the domestic economy to grow by 9.2 percent in 2021; and this is expected to moderate to a growth of 4.7 percent in 2022. The growth outcome will partly depend on success of the vaccine rollout.

According to the October 2021 World Economic Outlook (WEO), global output growth is forecast at 5.9 percent in 2021, 0.1 percentage point lower than in the July 2021 WEO update.  The downward revision reflects downgrades for advanced economies mainly due to supply disruptions, while the growth forecast for low-income countries was lowered as the slow rollout of COVID-19 vaccines weigh down on economic recovery.  Meanwhile, global output growth is anticipated to moderate to 4.9 percent in 2022, as some economies return to their pre-COVID-19 growth levels.

The South African Reserve Bank, for its part, projects that the South African GDP will grow by 5.3 percent in 2021, and slow to 1.7 percent in 2022.  The MPC notes that the short-term adverse developments in the domestic economy occur against a growth-enhancing environment.  These include accommodative monetary conditions, improvements in water and electricity supply, reforms to further improve the business environment and government interventions against COVID-19, including the vaccination rollout programme.

In addition, the successful implementation of ERTP should anchor the growth of exports and preservation of a sufficient buffer of foreign exchange reserves, which have recently fallen to an estimate of P47.9 billion (9.8 months of import cover) in September 2021.  Overall, it is projected that the economy will operate below full capacity in the short to medium term and, therefore, not creating any demand-driven inflationary pressures, going forward.

The projected increase in inflation in the short term is primarily due to transitory supply-side factors that, except for second-round effects and entrenched expectations (for example, through price adjustments by businesses, contractors, property owners and wage negotiations), do not normally attract monetary policy response. In this context, the MPC decided to continue with the accommodative monetary policy stance and maintain the Bank Rate at 3.75 percent.  Governor Moses Pelaelo noted that the Bank stands ready to respond appropriately as conditions warrant.

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SEZA to boost investment through Mayors forum

25th October 2021
SEZA-CEO-Lonely-Mogara

The Special Economic Zones Authority (SEZA) recently launched the Mayor’s forum. The Authority will engage with local governments to improve ease of doing business, boost investment, and fast track the development of Botswana’s Special Economic Zones (SEZs).

The Mayors Forum was established to recognise the vital role that local authorities play in infrastructure development; as they approve applications for planning, building and occupation permits. Local authorities also grant approvals for industrial licenses for manufacturing companies.
SEZA Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Lonely Mogara explained that the Mayor’s Forum was conceptualised after the Authority identified local authorities as critical partners in achieving its mandate and improving the ease of doing business. SEZA intends to develop legal instructions for different Ministries to align relevant laws with the SEZ Act, which will enable the operationalisation of the SEZ incentives.

“Engaging with local government will bring about the much-needed transformation as our SEZs are located in municipalities. For us, a good working relationship with local authorities is the special ingredient required for the efficient facilitation of SEZ investors, which will lead to their competitiveness and ultimate growth,” Mogara stated.

The Mayors Forum will focus on the referral of investors for establishment in different localities, efficient facilitation of investors, infrastructure and property development, and joint monitoring and evaluation of the SEZ programme at the local level. SEZA believes that collaborating with local authorities will bring about much-needed transformation in the areas where SEZs are located and ultimately within the national economy. Against this background, the concept of hosting a Mayors Forum was birthed to identify and provide solutions to possible barriers inhibiting ease of doing business.

One of the key outcomes of the Mayors Forum is the free flow of information between SEZA and local authorities. Further, the two will work together to change the business environment and achieve efficiency and competitiveness within the SEZs. Francistown Mayor Godisang Rasesigo was elected as the founding Chairman of the Mayors Forum. The forum will also include the executive leadership of all city, town and district councils, among them Mayors, City or Council Chairpersons, Town Clerks and District Commissioners.

Mogara explained that initial efforts would engage the local government in areas that host SEZA’s eight SEZs: Gaborone, Lobatse, Selebi Phikwe, Palapye, Francistown, Pandamatenga and Tuli Block. Meanwhile, Mogara told WeekendPost that they are confident that a modest 150 000 jobs could be unleashed in the next two to five years through a partnership with other government entities. He is adamant that the jobs will come from all the nine designated economic zones.

This publication gathers that the Authority is currently sitting on about P30 billion worth of investment. The investment, it is suggested, could be said to be locked up in government bureaucracy, awaiting the proper signatures for projects to take off. Mogara informed this publication that the Authority onboard investors who are bringing P200 million and above. He pointed out that more are injecting P1 billion investments compared to the lower stratum of their drive.

SEZA’s mandate hinges on the nine Special Economic Zones – being Gaborone (SSKIA), whose focus is of Mixed-use (Diamond Beneficiation, Aviation); Gaborone (Fairgrounds) for Financial services, professional services and corporate HQ village; Lobatse for Beef, leather & biogas park; Pandamatenga designated for Agriculture (cereal production); Selibe Phikwe area which is also of a Mixed-Use (Base metal beneficiation & value addition), Tuli Block Integrated coal value addition, dry port logistics centre, coal power generation and export; Francistown is set aside for International Multimodal logistics hub/ Mixed Use (Mining, logistics and downstream value-adding hub); whilst Palapye is for Horticulture.

The knowledge economy buzz speaks to SEZA’s agenda, according to Mogara. The CEO is determined to ensure that SEZA gets the buy-in from the government, parastatals and the private sector to deliver Botswana to a high economic status. “This will ensure more jobs, less poverty, more investment, and indeed wealth for Batswana,” quipped the enthusiastic Mogara. SEZA was established through the SEZ Act of 2015 and mandated with establishing, developing and managing the country’s SEZs. The Authority was tasked with creating a conducive domestic and foreign direct investment, diversifying the economy and increasing exports to facilitate employment creation.

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De Beers Q3 production up 28 %

25th October 2021
De-Beers

De Beers rough diamond production for the third quarter of 2021 increased by 28% to 9.2 million carats, reflecting planned higher Production to meet more robust demand for rough diamonds. In Botswana, Production increased by 33% to 6.4 million carats, primarily driven by the planned treatment of higher-grade ore at Jwaneng, partly offset by lower Production at Orapa due to the scheduled closure of Plant 1.

Namibia’s Production increased by 65% to 0.4 million carats, reflecting the marine fleet’s suspension during Q3 2020 as part of the response to lower demand at that time. South Africa production increased by 34% to 1.6 million carats due to the planned treatment of higher grade ore from the final cut of the Venetia open pit and an improvement in plant performance. Production in Canada decreased by 13% to 0.8 million carats due to lower grade ore being processed.

Demand for rough diamonds continued to be robust, with positive midstream sentiment reflecting strong demand for polished diamond jewellery, particularly in the key markets of the US and China. Rough diamond sales totalled 7.8 million carats (7.0 million carats on a consolidated basis) from two Sights, compared with 6.6 million carats (6.5 million carats on a consolidated basis) from three Sights in Q3 2020 and 7.3 million carats (6.5 million carats on consolidated basis) from two Sights in Q2 2021.

De Beers tightened Production guidance to 32 million carats (previously 32-33 million carats) due to continuing operational challenges, subject to the extent of any further Covid-19 related disruptions. Commenting on the production figures, Mark Cutifani, Chief Executive of De Beers parent company Anglo American, said: “Production is up 2%(1) compared to Q3 of last year, with our operating levels generally maintained at approximately 95%(2) of normal capacity.

The increase in Production is led by planned higher rough diamond production at De Beers, increased output from our Minas-Rio iron ore operation in Brazil, reflecting the planned pipeline maintenance in Q3 2020, and improved plant performance at our Kumba iron ore operations in South Africa. “We are broadly on track to deliver our full-year production guidance across all products while taking the opportunity to tighten up the guidance for diamonds, copper, and iron ore within our current range as we approach the end of the year.

“Our copper operations in Chile continue to work hard on mitigating the risk of water availability due to the challenges presented by the longest drought on record for the region, including sourcing water that is not suitable for use elsewhere and further increasing water recycling.”
On Wednesday, De Beers announced the value of rough diamond sales (Global Sightholder Sales and Auctions) for the eighth sales cycle of 2021. The company raked in US$ 490 million for the cycle, a slight improvement when compared to US$467 million recorded in 2020 cycle 8.

Owing to the restrictions on the movement of people and products in various jurisdictions around the globe, De Beers Group has continued to implement a more flexible approach to rough diamond sales during the eighth sales cycle of 2021, with the Sight event extended beyond its normal week-long duration.   As a result, the provisional rough diamond sales figure quoted for Cycle 8 represents the expected sales value from 4 October to 19 October. It remains subject to adjustment based on final completed sales.

Commenting on the cycle 8 sales De Beers Group Chief Executive Officer Bruce Cleaver said that: “As the diamond sector prepares for the key holiday season and US consumer demand for diamond jewellery continues to perform strongly, we saw further robust demand for rough diamonds in the eighth sales cycle of the year ahead of the Diwali holiday when demand for rough diamonds is likely to be affected by the closure of polishing factories in India.”

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