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Batswana are going digital

Subscriptions for fixed telephone are on the decline; posted parcels are also decreasing; and newspaper sales are also on a downward spiral. On the other hand, mobile cellular telephone subscriptions are increasing and internet subscriptions are rising.

Information & Communications Technology Statistics Report 2015 released this month and covers statistics for the year 2015 relating to Telecommunication, Print Media, Broadcasting (radio and television) and Postal Services reveals that the Botswana population especially in urban areas is embracing Information and Communication Technology. The latest report contains series from 2005 to 2015 – which is the latest period covered by Statistics Botswana’s unit of Information & Communications Technology.

According to the report subscriptions for fixed telephone lines decreased by 5.2 percent, from 169,236 in 2014 to 160,490 in 2015. Tele – density (the number of fixed telephone lines per 100 inhabitants) has been almost constant since 2002; it decreased from 8 lines per 100 persons in 2014 to 7 lines per 100 persons in 2015.

However, unlike fixed telephone lines. Mobile cellular telephone subscriptions increased in 2015. They rose from 3,410,507 in 2014 to 3,475,327 in 2015, registering a growth of 1.9 percent. This increase resulted from the rise in pre-paid mobile cellular telephone subscriptions which constituted 97.7 percent of total mobile cellular telephone subscriptions in 2015. Pre-paid mobile cellular telephone subscriptions numbered 3,395,758 while post-paid mobile cellular telephone subscriptions were 79,569. Mobi-density (the number of mobile cellular subscriptions per 100 inhabitants) remained constant in 2015, states the report.

The Statistics Botswana 2015 report published this month shares that telephone traffic is recorded as Domestic calls, International calls and Short Message Service (SMS). It records that during the fourth quarter of 2015, there were 2,067,470,773 fixed telephone to fixed telephone domestic calls recorded as compared to 424,793,378 during the same period in 2014. “This presents higher traffic as compared to the fixed telephone to mobile cellular phones for domestic calls. The traffic from fixed telephone to mobile cellular telephones also grew by 2.4 percent from 390,589,346 recorded during the fourth quarter of 2014 to 399,920,925 over the same period in 2015,” reads the report.

The ICT report also shares developments in relation to On net mobile cellular traffic which declined by 2.4 percent from 538,595,573 recorded in the last quarter of 2014 as compared to 525,492,538 observed in 2015 last quarter.  It states that 538,595,573 On net mobile cellular telephone calls were recorded during the last quarter of 2014 as compared to 178,652,457 of Off net mobile cellular telephone of the same period, showing a decline of 66.8 percent. On net mobile cellular telephone calls amounted to 525,492,538 during the last quarter of 2015 against 176,298,042 Off net cellular telephone calls recorded in the same period in 2015. This presents a decline of 66.5 percent.

“International calls traffic of Outgoing from fixed telephones increased by 38.5 percent from 671,227,267 during the fourth quarter of 2014 to 929,767,092 recorded over the same period in 2015. On the outer hand, outgoing calls from mobile cellular telephones decreased by 9.2 percent from 16,990,114 recorded during the last quarter of 2014 to 15,426,446 over the same period in 2015.” The Statistics Botswana report further indicates that the traffic for SMS shows a decline of 7.5 % from 226,930,504 during the last quarter of 2014 to 209,840,809 recorded in the last quarter of 2015 within the On net SMS. Meanwhile the Off Net SMS increased by 8.0 % from 146, 297,194 recorded in the fourth quarter of 2014 to 157,962,098 over the same period in 2015.

Internet Subscriptions

According to the report, internet subscriptions rose by 39.2 percent during the period under review, from 2,524,013 subscriptions in 2014 to 3,512,172 in 2015. This increase resulted from the growth of both mobile internet subscriptions (from 2,496,146 subscriptions in 2014 to 3,475,327 in 2015) and fixed internet subscriptions (from 27,867 in 2014 to 36,845 in 2015). Statistics Botswana further assessed the quarters of 2015 with respect to internet subscriptions, Q1 2015 experienced the highest increase while the other quarters experienced marginal growth. In addition Q1 2015 observed an increase of 36.3 percent in internet subscriptions from Q4 2014 while Q2, Q3 and Q4 2015 registered 0.3 percent, 0.7 percent and 1.0 percent respectively.

“Internet subscriptions per 100 inhabitants increased from 117 subscriptions in 2014 to 160 subscriptions in 2015. This growth resulted from the growth of mobile cellular telephones subscriptions per 100 inhabitants of 161 subscriptions in 2015 from 115 subscriptions in 2014,” reads the report.

Mail volume trends

According to the Statistics Botswana ICT report the international mail received increased by 51.2 percent in 2015 while international mail dispatched increased by 23.1 percent. Domestic mail also experienced an increase in 2015 and it registered a growth of  40.3 percent. The report further states that total posted parcels decreased by 1.3 percent in 2015, from 18,571 total parcels dispatched in 2014 to 18,815 parcels in 2015. Foreign received parcels decreased by 56.3 percent in 2015; they reduced from 7,202 parcels in 2014 to 3,148 parcels in 2015.

“Registered items posted decreased by 25.1 percent in 2015, from 319,920 items recorded in 2014 to 400,217 items recorded in 2015. Foreign registered items increased in 2014 by 25.1 percent from 19,230 items in 2014 to 24,057 in 2015. Both dispatched and received EMS items decreased in 2015. Foreign dispatched express mail items decreased by 35 percent while foreign received EMS items decreased by 6.1 percent compared to the previous year,” reads the report.  Letter/cards dispatched and received increased by 2.3 percent in 2015, from 8,170,944 items recorded in 2014 to 8,361,903 items in 2015. Printed matter increased by 248 percent in 2015, it recorded 1,547,888 items in 2014 and 5,387,135 items in 2015. On the other hand small packets increased by 23.5 percent in 2015, from 42,860 items recorded in 2014 to 52,930 items in 2015.

Private newspaper net sales

The observation the Statistics Botswana ICT Unit is that there have been fluctuations in net sales of private newspapers from 2006 to 2015. It indicates that the net sales had reached a maximum of P51.5 million in 2010 and a minimum of P4.3 million in 2007. The report says sales started to decrease in 2011 until they reached P26 million in 2015.

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Seretse, Kgosi may walk free

30th October 2020
BAKANG SERETSE

The P250 million National Petroleum Fund (NPF) saga that has been before court since 2017 seems to be losing its momentum with a high possibility of it being thrown out as defence lawyers unmask incompetency on the part of the Directorate of Public Prosecution (DPP).

The Gaborone High Court this week ruled that the decision by the State to prosecute Justice Zein Kebonang and his twin brother, Sadique Kebonang has been reviewed and set aside. The two brothers have now been cleared of the charges that where laid against them three years ago.

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Understanding the US Electoral College and key election issues 

28th October 2020
Mark J Rozell

The United States (US) will on the 3rd of November 2020 chose between incumbent Donald Trump of the Republicans and former Vice President Joe Biden of the Democrats amid the coronavirus pandemics, which has affected how voting is conducted in the world’s biggest economy.

Trump (74) seeks re-election after trouncing Hillary Clinton in 2016, while Biden (77) is going for his first shot as Democratic nominee after previous unsuccessful spells.

US Presidents mostly succeed in their re-election bid, but there have been nine individuals who failed to garner a second term mandate, the latest being George W H. Bush, a Republican who served as the 41st US President between 1989 and 1993.

Dr Mark Rozell, a Dean of  the School of Policy and Government at George Mason University  in  Arlington, Virginia describes the complex US electoral system that will deliver the winner at the 3rd November elections.

“The founders of our Republic de-centralised  authority  significantly  in  creating  our  constitutional  system,  which  means that  they  gave  an  enormous  amount  of  independent  power  and  authority  to  State  and  local governments,” Dr Rozell told international media on Elections 2020 Virtual Reporting Tour.

Unlike  parliamentary  democracies, like Botswana the  United  States  does  not  have  all  of  the  national government elected in one year. They do not have what is commonly called mandate elections where  the  entire  federal  government  is  elected  all  in  one  election  cycle  giving  a  “mandate”  to  a particular political party to lead, and instead US have what are called staggered elections, elections over time.

The two house Congress, members of the House of Representatives have two-year long terms of office. Every two years the entire House of Representatives is up for re-election, but senators  serve  for  six  years  and  one  third  of  the  Senate is elected every  two  years.

For this election cycle, US citizens will be electing the President and Vice

President, the entire House of Representatives and one third of the open or contested seats in the Senate, whereas two thirds are still fulfilling the remainder of their terms beyond this year.

An  important  facet  of  US electoral  system  to  understand  given  the  federalism  nature  of  the republic, the US elect presidents State by State, therefore they do not have a national popular vote for the presidency.

“We have a national popular vote total that says that Hillary Clinton got three million more votes than Donald Trump or in Year 2000 that Al Gore got a half million more votes than George W. Bush, but we have what is called a State by State winner takes all system where each State  is  assigned  a  number  of  electors  to  our  Electoral  College  and  the  candidate  who  wins  the popular vote within each State takes 100 percent of the electors to the Electoral College,” explained Dr Rozell.

“And that is why mathematically, it is possible for someone to win the popular vote but lose the presidency.”

Dr Rozell indicated that in 2016, Hillary Clinton won very large popular majorities in some big population States like California, but the system allows a candidate to only have to  win  a  State  by  one  vote  to  win  a  100 percent of  its  electors,  the  margin  does  not  matter.

“Donald  Trump  won  many  more  States  by  smaller  margins,  hence  he  got  an  Electoral  College majority.”

Another interesting features by the way of US constitutional system, according to Dr Rozell, but extremely rare, is what is called the faithless elector.

“That’s the elector to the Electoral College who says, ‘I’m not going to vote the popular vote in my State, I think my State made a bad decision and I’m going  to  break  with  the  popular  vote,’’ Dr Rozell said.

“That’s constitutionally a very complicated matter in our federalism system because although the federal constitution says electors may exercise discretion, most States have passed State laws making it illegal for any elector to the Electoral College to break faith with the popular vote of that State, it is a criminal act that can be penalized if one is to do that. And we just had an important Supreme Court case that upheld the right of the states to impose and to enforce this restriction”

There are 538 electors at the Electoral College, 270 is the magic number, the candidate who gets 270 or more becomes President of the United States.

If however there are more candidates, and  this  happens  extremely  rarely,  and  a  third  candidate  got  some electors  to  the  Electoral  College  denying  the  two  major  party  candidates,  either  one  getting  a majority, nobody gets 270 or more, then the election goes to the House of Representatives and the House of Representatives votes among the top three vote getters as to who should be the next President.

“You’d have to go back to the early 19th century to have such a scenario, and that’s not going to happen this year unless there is a statistical oddity, which would be a perfect statistical tie of 269 to 269 which could happen but you can just imagine how incredibly unlikely that is,” stated Dr Rozell.

BLUE STATES vs RED STATES

Since the 2000 United States presidential election, red states and blue states have referred to states of the United States whose voters predominantly choose either the Republican Party (red) or Democratic Party (blue) presidential candidates.

Many  states  have  populations  that  are  so  heavily  concentrated  in  the  Democratic party or the Republican party that there is really no competition in those states.

California is a heavily Democratic State, so is New York and Maryland. It is given that Joe Biden will win those states. Meanwhile Texas, Florida and Alabama are republicans. So, the candidates will spent no time campaigning in those states because it is already a given.

However there are swing  states, where  there is a competition between about five and 10 states total in each election cycle that make a difference, and that is where the candidates end up spending almost all of their time.

“So  it  ends  up  making  a  national  contest  for  the  presidency  actually  look  like  several  state-wide contests with candidates spending a lot of time talking about State and local issues in those parts of the country,” said Dr Rozell.

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Masisi to make things right with Dangote

26th October 2020

High Commissioner of the Federal Government of Nigeria to Botswana, His Excellency Umar Zainab Salisu, has challenged President Dr Mokgweetsi Masisi to move swiftly and lobby Africa’s richest man, Nigerian Billionaire, Aliko Dangote to invest in Botswana.

Speaking during a meeting with President Masisi at Office of President on Thursday Zainab Salisu said Dangote has expressed massive interest in setting up billion dollar industries in Botswana.  “We have a lot of investors who wish to come and invest in Botswana , when we look at Botswana we don’t see Botswana itself , but we are lured by its geographic location , being in the centre of Southern Africa presents a good opportunity for strategic penetration into other markets of the region,” said Salisu.

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