A Professor of Political Science at Concordia University in Montreal, Canada Amy Poteete says opposition Botswana Movement for Democracy (BMD) should go for congress re-run as first option. Poteete has spent her better time in Botswana observing the political landscape and dynamics.
BMD is currently embroiled in bitter internal rivalry that gave birth to a parallel leadership emanating from the disputed separate congresses from Bobonong recently. BMD has two National Executive Committees (NEC), one led by Gaolathe Ndaba while Sidney Pilane leads the other. Professor Poteete pointed out in an interview with WeekendPost this week that “since the two BMD factions held separate congresses in Bobonong, the group led by Ndaba Gaolathe has publicly recognized and debated three options for dealing with the impasse with Sidney Pilane’s group. These, however, are not the only possibilities,” she highlighted.
According to the Canadian Professor, whose research focuses on state interventions in natural resource sectors and electoral politics in Africa, particularly in Botswana and Senegal, there are many options to consider and she presented six options available to Ndaba’s group and considers their likelihood and political implications. Firstly, according to her fresh elections offer the most democratic way to resolve conflicts adding that his option would only settle the conflict if both factions could agree on the designation of delegates, which is far from certain even if an outside body supervised the process.
However, she said the more immediate obstacle, is that Pilane's group cannot be forced to participate in fresh elections and shows no interest in doing so. “What will the other members of UDC do if (when) Pilane's group officially refuses to go along? It is possible – but far from certain – that, after Pilane’s group officially rejects the proposal for fresh elections, the other members of UDC will decide to recognize Ndaba's group because they proposed a democratic resolution to the conflict,” she observed. She also hinted that even that decision, however, would not give Ndaba's group legal claim to the BMD name, symbol, etc. And it certainly would not reunite the BMD. “So, at best (from the perspective of Ndaba’s group), putting forward this proposal offers a partial solution, and that more likely, it only delays a move to one of the other options.” The second option, Professor Poteete said it is for BMD to go to court. This, she mentioned is the only way to have a chance of keeping the BMD name and symbol in the absence of fresh elections. “BMD members have a very intense identification with their party and, understandably, many want to fight to keep the name, colours, and symbol,” she justified while adding that going to court is costly and the outcome uncertain. However, she highlighted that “winning rights to the BMD name and symbol will not reunite the party. The political logic of opposition cooperation means that the UDC will still need to figure out how to deal with both groups, regardless of which one holds legal rights to the BMD name and symbol. “So, this is no more than a partial solution.” The next option, which might be a bitter pill to swallow for the Ndaba led committee is to eventually form a new party. Poteete explained that this option “keeps” Ndaba's group together as a corporate entity and, given the low prospects of fresh elections and the costs and uncertainty of the legal route, is emerging as the most likely option. “The formation of a new party would provide a new legally constituted organizational home for Ndaba’s group, but would not solve other political problems and presents new challenges. The start-up costs are high. Further, this strategy reinforces rather than resolves the divisions between the Ndaba and Pilane groups and fragments the party system when the supposed goal is opposition unity.” According to the renowned Professor, the new party would need to negotiate entry into the UDC, the ease of which will depend on how UDC deals with Pilane's group. If Ndaba's group forms a new party and cannot negotiate mutually agreeable terms for re-entering UDC, it could go its own way (or, perhaps, team up with BPP), she said. But, she added that its survival in the 2019 elections may depend on being in UDC, and, its areas of strength, based on the location of incumbents, are in the north and in Gaborone and vicinity. The northern constituencies, she continued, overlap with the BCP’s areas of strength and the constituencies in Gaborone and vicinity are extremely competitive. Ndaba's group needs to cooperate with BCP and BNF to avoid mutual destruction through vote splitting, according to Poteete, who received the Dudley Seers Memorial Prize for best article in volume 45 of the Journal of Development Studies for her article, “Is Development Path Dependent or Political? A Reinterpretation of Mineral-Dependent Development in Botswana” in April 2009. She also said the Ndaba led group can also consider as some of its options, to form a compromise BMD NEC with representation from each of the two factions. Although, it is not one of the options promoted by Ndaba's group, the professor said she has seen it being floated here and there, and that a resolution of differences backed by mutual trust and a commitment to a common project would offer the most sustainable solution for the long term. “There may thus be a temptation to push this option, particularly on the part of the UDC and others who are outside the BMD but supportive of opposition cooperation. The conditions seem unfavorable for that sort of conflict resolution in the short term, however, given the depth of the divisions, the demonstrated unwillingness to negotiate, and the electoral time table. There is an obvious deficit of mutual trust. My sense is that the lack of trust gives raise to some uncertainty about whether the two groups in fact share a common project.” But she cautioned: “Thus, I view this strategy as unlikely, unstable if pursued in the absence of a real resolution of differences and thus unpromising prior to the 2019 elections.” In addition, she said that people have not been discussing would be for Ndaba's group to join one of the existing parties within UDC. “Joining an existing party would avoid the start-up costs of forming a new party and fragmentation of the party system. But this strategy presents obvious challenges. As noted above, BMD members have an intense identification with their party and activists may resist joining an existing party.” According to the Canadian Professor, the merger of Ndaba’s group into the UDC member parties would not avoid the need to re-open negotiations over the terms of participation in the UDC and the UDC would still need to figure out how to deal with both Ndaba’s group and Pilane’s group. Nonetheless, she said this option should at least be recognized and contemplated rather than dismissed out of hand. Another option would be for Ndaba’s group to join the UDC as individual members. “I realize that few activists would find this option very attractive as it means giving up their subgroup identity. It is not just a matter of affective attachment.” Although the UDC constitution allows for individual membership, Professor Poteete said affiliation with one of the member parties has been the basis for negotiating constituency allocation within the UDC. She added that indeed, one of the challenges associated with allocating constituencies to parties through negotiations rather than a primary involving all members is that it reinforces both party divisions within the UDC and the regional nature of the member parties. But he said that is a challenge for another day, a day after the UDC and the two parts of the BMD figure out whether and how to work together.
Stanbic Bank Botswana Quarterly Economic Review indicates that Botswana will fail to meet some of its Vision 2036 targets, particularly unemployment reduction and reaching high-income status.
The report says this is mainly due to the slow economic growth that the country is currently experiencing. This Quarterly Economic Review focuses on the 2020 Budget Speech.
The first paper reviews the entire budget with its key observations being that this budget is prepared as prescribed by the Public Finance Management Act; the priorities it seeks to address are drawn from Vision 2036 and the eleventh
The 2020 budget Speech, which was the maiden speech by the Minister of Finance and Economic Development, Dr. Thapelo Matsheka, and the first after the 2019 general elections, was delivered to Parliament on the 4th of February 2020.
It has been well received by the labour unions, business community, and the public at large as well as international organisations such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
It mainly derived its support from key facets including, emphasis on changing the business-as-usual approach to development; outlining the transformation agenda; fiscal reform that minimizes the negative impact on economic development and human welfare, competiveness and the decision to implement the 2019 negotiated and agreed public sector.
The budget’s progress review shows that economic growth was consistent with the NDP 11 projections, with growth of around 4 percent. At this growth rate, the country would neither ascend to a high-income status nor reduce unemployment towards the Vision 2036 target of a single digit.
Simple calculations of this review confirm that the economy will need to grow the Vision 2036’s target of 6 percent over the next 16 years for per capita income to increase from around USD 8,000.00 to above USD 12,000.00 in current prices.
Further, the population is anticipated to grow by only 2 percent per annum.
For this reason, the focal areas for the forthcoming FY’s budget include measures to increase economic growth towards an average of 6 percent per annum.
Economic diversification is reportedly progressing fairly well. The report says, the share of the non-mining private sector in value added has risen to 66 percent in 2018 from to 63 percent in 2015.
The sectoral pattern of growth showed that the performance of services sector (particularly transport & communications, trade, hotels & restaurants, and finance & business services) has been the silver lining and that of mining sector was subdued whilst the utility sector disappointed.
The drive towards the service sector of the economy, especially to low-productivity activities (tourism, public administration, wholesaling and retailing) does not bode well for the country’s development aspirations.
In the previous versions of this Quarterly Review, it was noted that there is need for the rethinking of economic diversification. Since the country’s domestic market is small, it is inevitable that economic diversification not only focus on broadening the product mix, but also the composition of exports and markets.
This understanding of economic diversification has not been embraced by this year’s budget. Consequently, Botswana’s exports are still overwhelmingly diamonds, which means that the rest of economic sectors are still highly dependent on foreign-exchange earnings from diamonds. Thus, “the transformation programme requires a review of the country’s entire ecosystem”.
The budget review of the economic context also depicts that an economy with positive medium-term prospects, with growth expected to recover to 4.4 percent in 2020 from the expected growth of 36 percent in 2019 largely due to faster growth of services sectors and, thereafter, to slow-down to 4 percent in 2021.
These projected growth rates are comparable to those of the IMF staff’s baseline scenario of 4.2 percent in 2020 and 4 percent in 2021. Thus, the business-as-usual scenario produces growth rates that are still too low to achieve Botswana’s development objectives and create enough jobs to absorb the new entrants into the labour market.
Trade tensions between the two major markets for diamond exports, viz., the United States of America and China, is one of the factors that are cited as contributing to, indeed, undermining not only the domestic growth, but also the fiscal position.
Another notable downside risk to both global and domestic growth is outbreak of the coronavirus in China around January 2020. This has been declared as a global health emergency. In an attempt to contain the spread of the novel coronavirus pneumonia, the Chinese authorities have ordered city lockdowns and extended holidays, of course, at the expense of near- term economic growth, according to the new Stanbic Bank Botswana report.
According to Nomura Holdings Inc., fewer migrant workers returned for work than in previous years and business activities have been slow to pick up. The havoc wreaked by the virus on the world’s second largest economy is likely to spill over to the global economy. In fact, it has resulted in a glut in crude oil and, thereby placed oil markets into a contango, i.e., a market structure where near-term prices trade at a discount to future contracts.
It also presents significant risks one of Botswana’s main drivers of economic growth, diversification and foreign exchange earnings. According to the Financial Times (February 13, 2020), Chinese tourists spent $130 billion overseas in 2018. Regardless of whether the growth materializes, the projected domestic growth rate would not transform the economy to a high-income one.
Progress towards reduction of unemployment, to a target of single digit, and poverty and achieving inclusive growth has also been relatively slow, the Stanbic Bank Botswana Review says.
Ministry of Presidential Affairs, Governance and Public Administration (MOPAGPA) has through the Office of the President (OP) proposed to avail Orapa House for use by private training institutions as well as research institutions involved in the area of technology development.
For a very long time the monumental building located in the heart of the city has been a white elephant, despite government purchasing it for nearly P80 million from De Beers in 2012.
However, government has now identified a productive use for the iconic building. “The overall vision is for the building to be transformed into a hub for digital technology research and development to be carried-out by institutions, such as; Limkokwing University, BIUST, BITRI and other relevant stakeholders.”
The decision was taken as government traverse a new path of transforming the economy from a mineral led economy to a knowledge based economy through the promotion of research and innovation. However, the facility will need major maintenance to be carried-out in order to meet the requirements of the proposed change in use.
“The work will include provision of laboratories, work stations, production areas and seminar rooms; audio visual centre, high speed internet connectivity, exhibition areas and offices,” reads the proposal note for the development.
These developments will be done through the refurbishment and maintenance of the main building, workshop, and ablution block, gate house, parking area, grounds, and access control and security service.
“There will be minimal modifications to the structure as it stands. The project is estimated to cost approximately P50, 000, 000,” says the report. In this regard, it is said, the initial scope of the OP facility will be modified to accommodate the envisaged digital technology research and development hub.
With funds needed to improve the building, OP has requested that; “the 2020/21 annual budget provision for Orapa House will need to be increased by P37,500,000 from P2,500,000 to P40,000,000 to kick start the maintenance works.” Funds will be sourced from the projects that have been delayed due to Covid-19 protocols during the 2020/21 financial year.
The building has been a thorny issue for government for years. Initially, OP was expected to move there but the move never materialised. At one point it was a question of whether the Office of the President and the Ministry of Finance and Economic Development were planning to override a decision by Parliament which rejected the proposal to buy Orapa House under the belief that government may be buying its own property. The building was to be bought at a negotiated cost of P79 million.
Again in 2012, Government had wanted to buy Orapa House for a negotiated P79m but the Finance and Estimates Committee of Parliament had rejected the request because of the inconsistencies realised in the supporting documents of the proposed procurement. The valuation of the building was put at P74 million.
The Ministry of Lands and Housing had initially offered De Beers P73, 000,000 as the purchase price. However, De Beers countered with P85, 000,000. On negotiation and converging of the minds, the selling price was finally agreed at P79, 000,000.
Auditor General, Pulane Letebele, has expressed discontentment at the worrying and deteriorating state of brigades in the country.
In an audit inspection which was carried out at Tshwaragano Brigade in Gabane, a number of observations showed weaknesses and shortcomings in the conduct of the financial affairs of the institution.
According to Letebele’s report, former students of the brigade had been engaged to carry out maintenance works on the school premises, comprising of painting, tiling, plumbing and electrical works, which covered the period from July 2017 to June 2018.
Although the agreed maintenance period had elapsed, the works had not been completed because of unavailability of funds and this situation had persisted up till the time of inspection in November 2019.
Auditor General says arrangements should have been made in time for funds to be available to complete these relatively minor works even before the works commenced.
Various contractors had been engaged for clearing the bush and for the supply of concrete stones, pit and river sand and hiring equipment for digging the trench towards the construction of an auto mechanics workshop, the report said.
It stated that the cost of services and supplies provided totalled P117 949.80. However, despite the services and the supplies having been paid for, the construction works had not commenced for a long period afterwards, resulting in the trench filling back in.
The audit inquiries had not elicited satisfactory responses as both the institution and the Ministry had not accepted the responsibility for the project, although orders for the provision for the supplies had been made. For their part, the Ministry had stated that they had sub warranted funds for the purchase of porta cabins.
Letebele indicated that it is therefore confusing that a project which is critical to the functioning of an institution such as this one would commence without a well-defined plan.
Furthermore, the accounting and maintenance of records for the supplies items were not of the standard prescribed by the Supplies Regulations and Procedures in that the supplies ledger cards, the main accounting records for Government assets, were not properly maintained for the recording of receipts and issues.
This had resulted in significant discrepancies between physical and ledger balances, while in other instances the supplies items had not been recorded at all.
The report says 24 of the 91 new computers found in the computer laboratory at Kumakwane ABC campus were not recorded anywhere, as were the other computers in the storeroom which could not be counted due to the disorderly storage conditions.
The institution had entered into a contract agreement with a security company for the provision of security services at Tshwaragano Brigade, ABC and Horticulture campuses at Kumakwane for a 2-year period which ended in June 2018, WeekendPost learnt.
After the contract expired in June 2018, an extension was granted till the 30th September 2018. Since then, there has been no security service coverage for the institution to-date. According to Auditor General, in the face of prevailing crimes, it is of paramount importance that government properties be protected by provision of security services at all times.
At Tlokweng Brigade, it was noted that the kitchen staff were working under difficult conditions as the kitchen facilities and equipment, such as the cold room, tilting pot, food warmers and solar power for hot water were dysfunctional. The kitchen roof was leaking and men’s restrooms was not working. All these need to be brought to a reasonable and functional state of repair.
The kitchen staff should use a purpose-designed Rations Ledger for the recording of receipts and issues of foodstuffs to reflect the usage of those items. As far back as 2014 the Department of Buildings and Engineering Services had found that the house occupied by the bursar was uninhabitable on account of structural defects, the report said.
A site visit during the audit had established that the house was indeed unfit for occupation as there were cracks on the walls, power switches were not working and the roof was leaking. On a sadder note, there were a number of finished items of clothing, such as dresses, shirts, and jackets from students’ practical exercises from the Fashion Design Textiles Workshop.
Auditor General shared her take on this, saying: “I have not been able to ascertain the policy on the disposal of products from these practicals. A trace of 103 green acid-proof overalls which had been purchased in August 2018 had indicated that there was no record of these items having been recorded or issued, nor were they available in stock. I was not able to obtain any explanation for this situation.”
Kgatleng brigade was also audited and inspected by Auditor General who observed that the brigade has 26 institutional houses at Bokaa, both old campus and new campus. Some of these houses are very old and dilapidated, with two declared uninhabitable. The condition of the houses is a clear indication of lack of care and maintenance of these properties.
At the time of the audit, there was no contractor engaged for the provision of security guard services at the new campus, after expiry of the previous one in July 2019. It is hoped that steps would be taken to safeguard the security of the premises and government properties against any acts of hooliganism.
In August 2019, there was a break-in at the electrical and at the plumbing maintenance workshops and a number of high value items, such as drilling machines, bolt cutters, spanners and cables, were stolen. The break-in and theft were reported to the police.
“However, at the time of writing this report I was not aware of the outcome of the police investigation, nor of any loss report submitted in terms of the Supplies Regulations and Procedures,” Letebele said.