Botswana Insurance Holdings Limited (BHIL) has reported that its net premium income decreased by 4% year on year to P1.104 billion compared to P1.145 billion achieved in prior year due to suppressed annuity business income.
The Group says recurring premium income grew by an impressive 12% from P530 million in June 2016 to P592 million during the first 6 months of 2017. This line represents a sustainable source of profits in the long term. “The value of new business written has decreased by 22% from proi r year owing to low new business volumes and reduced margins. Operating profit decreased from P192 million in June 2016 to P147 million in June 2017.”
According to the company’s financial results statement, the major explanation for the decrease was the low volumes for single premium business which was acquired at lower margins. Given the challenges on the profitability of the business, the company says it has embarked on a streamlining exercise to improve efficiency. During the period the company launched Sharia compliant investment products which are expected to contribute to new business growth going forward.
“The business also introduced a new life cover product, Poelo Whole of Life, aimed at benefiting members with a lifetime cover, inclusive of a 120% premium payback after 15 years. The launch of these products shows our commitment to introducing innovative products that meet market needs, and the products are expected to have a positive impact on revenue and value of new business targets,” reads the statement.
Meanwhile BIHL says the outlook for the domestic economy remains fragile due to the unstable world economy outlook and the constrained household income growth, which represses discretionary spending. Despite these challenges Management is focused on delivering sustainable growth and value to its stakeholders through various innovations.
BIFM’s H1 exceptional
As for the Asset management business, BIFM group’s first half of the year was exceptional with the business performing above prior year in terms of operating profit by 41%. BIHL says the good performance is on the back of a strong assets under management position increased by new mandates won in the latter part of 2016. Favourable exchange rates and interest income positively affected the Zambia business. The efficient management of costs resulted in the company posting an operating profit of P30.8 million. Total assets under management (including Zambia’s P4 billion) currently stand at P25 billion due to improved market performance.
Short term insurance business
The first half of 2017 has seen a continuation of challenging market conditions, and the business has experienced a significant decline in new business as well as a rise in policy cancellations, many of which are due to clients experiencing financial constraints which has made it difficult for them to continue with their Legal Guard policies. This has impacted revenue negatively with premium income being 1.4% lower than for the same period al st year.
“During the first half of the year, Legal Guard embarked on and concluded a restructuring exercise. This had become imperative to align the business’ cost base to levels more appropriate to a business of the size and nature of Legal Guard and thereby improve the company’s ability to achieve sustainable profitability. Legal Guard achieved an operating loss of P0.9 million for the first six months of 2017. The main cause of this outturn was a once off P2.1 million cost incurred as part of the restructuring exercise completed on June 2017,” says BIHL.
Despite these negatives, BIHL says the first half of 2017 saw a significant achievement for the business with the go-live of its new core operating system in April 2017. The system is expected to improve revenue stability going forward as well as provide an enhanced platform for claims administration. According to the Group, the system will also facilitate internal process efficiency improvements and the division’s quality of decision making information which will, in turn, reduce the business’ cost ratios, whilst also, releasing resources to focus on customer experience improvements. Management has embarked on an exercise focused on improving the productivity of the distribution force and this is expected to impact new business and file size growth going forward.
Marcian Concepts have been contracted by Selibe Phikwe Economic Unit (SPEDU) in a P230 million project to raise the town from its ghost status. The project is in the design and building phase of building an industrial hub for Phikwe; putting together an infrastructure in Bolelanoto and Senwelo industrial sites.
This project comes as a life-raft for Selibe Phikwe, a town which was turned into a ghost town when the area’s economic mainstay, BCL mine, closed four years ago. In that catastrophe, 5000 people lost their livelihoods as the town’s life sunk into a gloomy horizon. Businesses were closed and some migrated to better places as industrial places and malls became almost empty.
However, SPEDU has now started plans to breathe life into the town. Information reaching this publication is that Marcian Concepts is now on the ground at Bolelanoto and Senwelo and works have commenced. Marcian as a contractor already promises to hire Phikwe locals only, even subcontract only companies from the area as a way to empower the place’s economy.
The procurement method for the tender is Open Domestic bidding which means Joint Ventures with foreign companies is not allowed. According to Marcian Concepts General Manager, Andre Strydom, in an interview with this publication, the project will come with 150 to 200 jobs. The project is expected to take 15 months at a tune of P230 531 402. 76. Marcian will put together construction of roadworks, storm-water drains, water reticulation, street lighting and telecommunication infrastructure. This tender was flouted last year August, but was awarded in June this year. This project is seen as the beginning of Phikwe’s revival and investors will be targeted to the area after the town has worn the ghost city status for almost half a decade.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has slashed its outlook the world economy projecting a significantly deeper recession and slower recovery than it anticipated just two months ago.
On Wednesday when delivering its World Economic Outlook report titled “A long difficult Ascent” the Washington Based global lender said it now expects global gross domestic product to shrink 4.9% this year, more than the 3% predicted in April. For 2021, IMF experts have projected growth of 5.4%, down from 5.8%. “We are projecting a somewhat less severe though still deep recession in 2020, relative to our June forecast,” said Gita Gopinath Economic Counsellor and Director of Research.
The struggle of humanity is now how to dribble past the ‘Great Pandemic’ in order to salvage a lean economic score. Botswana is already working on dwindling fiscal accounts, budget deficit, threatened foreign reserves and the GDP data that is screaming recession.
Latest data by think tank and renowned rating agency, Moody’s Investor Service, is that Botswana’s fiscal status is on the red and it is mostly because of its mineral-dependency garment and tourism-related taxation. Botswana decided to close borders as one of the containment measures of Covid-19; trade and travellers have been locked out of the country. Moody’s also acknowledges that closing borders by countries like Botswana results in the collapse of tourism which will also indirectly weigh on revenue through lower import duties, VAT receipts and other taxes.
Latest economic data shows that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter of 2020 with a decrease of 27 percent. One of the factors that led to contraction of the local economy is the suspension of air travel occasioned by COVID-19 containment measures impacted on the number of tourists entering through the country’s borders and hence affecting the output of the hotels and restaurants industry. This will also be weighed down by, according to Moody’s, emerging markets which will see government losing average revenue worth 2.1 percentage points (pps) of GDP in 2020, exceeding the 1.0 pps loss in advanced economies (AEs).
“Fiscal revenue in emerging markets is particularly vulnerable to this current crisis because of concentrated revenue structures and less sophisticated tax administrations than those in AEs. Oil exporters will see the largest falls but revenue volatility is a common feature of their credit profiles historically,” says Moody’s. The domino effects of containment measures could be seen cracking all sectors of the local economy as taxes from outside were locked out by the closure of borders hence dwindling tax revenue.
Moody’s has placed Botswana among oil importers, small, tourism-reliant economies which will see the largest fall in revenue. Botswana is in the top 10 of that pecking order where Moody’s pointed out recently that other resource-rich countries like Botswana (A2 negative) will also face a large drop in fiscal revenue.
This situation of countries’ revenue on the red is going to stay stubborn for a long run. Moody’s predicts that the spending pressures faced by governments across the globe are unlikely to ease in the short term, particularly because this crisis has emphasized the social role governments perform in areas like healthcare and labour markets.
For countries like Botswana, these spending pressures are generally exacerbated by a range of other factors like a higher interest burden, infrastructure deficiencies, weaker broader public sector, higher subsidies, lower incomes and more precarious employment. As a result, most of the burden for any fiscal consolidation is likely to fall on the revenue side, says Moody’s.
Moody’s then moves to the revenue spin of taxation. The rating agency looked at the likelihood and probability of sovereigns to raise up revenue by increasing tax to offset what was lost in mineral revenue and tourism-related tax revenue. Moody’s said the capacity to raise tax revenue distinguishes governments from other debt issuers. “In theory, governments can change a given tax system as they wish, subject to the relevant legislative process and within the constraints of international law. In practice, however, there are material constraints,” says Moody’s.
‘‘The coronavirus crisis will lead to long-lasting revenue losses for emerging market sovereigns because their ability to implement and enforce effective revenue-raising measures in response will be an important credit driver over the next few years because of their sizeable spending pressures and the subdued recovery in the global economy we expect next year.’’
According to Moody’s, together with a rise in stimulus and healthcare spending related to the crisis, the think tank expects this drop in revenue will trigger a sizeable fiscal deterioration across emerging market sovereigns. Most countries, including Botswana, are under pressure of widening their tax bases, Moody’s says that this will be challenging. “Even if governments reversed or do not extend tax-easing measures implemented in 2020 to support the economy through the coronavirus shock, which would be politically challenging, this would only provide a modest boost to revenue, especially as these measures were relatively modest in most emerging markets,” says Moody’s.
Botswana has been seen internationally as a ‘tax ease’ country and its taxes are seen as lower when compared to its regional counterparts. This country’s name has also been mentioned in various international investigative journalism tax evasion reports. In recent years there was a division of opinions over whether this country can stretch its tax base. But like other sovereigns who have tried but struggled to increase or even maintain their tax intake before the crisis, Botswana will face additional challenges, according to Moody’s.
“Additional measures to reduce tax evasion and cutting tax expenditure should support the recovery in government revenue, albeit from low levels,” advised Moody’s. Botswana’s tax revenue to the percentage of the GDP was 27 percent in 2008, dropped to 23 percent in 2010 to 23 percent before rising to 27 percent again in 2012. In years 2013 and 2014 the percentage went to 25 percent before it took a slip to decline in respective years of 2015 up to now where it is at 19.8 percent.