In 2016, four countries moved up in the Top 10 ranking by international tourism receipts and three in the ranking by international tourist arrivals (overnight visitors).
Most notably, Thailand climbed further, up to 3rd place from 5th in terms of tourism receipts in its second year of double-digit growth, hitting the US$ 50 billion mark in 2016. It also moved up one place in arrivals to 9th position (33 million), reports the UNWTO. “When ranking the world’s top international tourism destinations, it is preferable to take more than a single indicator into account.
Ranked according to the two key tourism indicators international tourist arrivals and international tourism receipts – it is interesting to note that eight out of the Top 10 destinations appear on both lists, despite showing marked differences in terms of the type of tourists they attract, as well as their average length of stay and their spending per trip and per night. It should be noted that changes in the ranking of international tourism receipts not only reflect the relative performance of the destinations, but also exchange rate fluctuations of the local currencies against the US dollar,” explains the UNWTO in their 2017 tourism report.
According to the report, the United States continues to top the international tourism receipts ranking, with US$ 206 billion earned in 2016. It is the second largest destination in international tourist arrivals with 76 million. Spain follows as the world’s second largest earner with US$ 60 billion, and the third largest destination in terms of arrivals with 76 million, virtually equaling the US. China remains in fourth position in terms of both receipts (US$ 44 billion) and arrivals (59 million). France climbed one place to 5th position in tourism earnings, with US$ 42 billion, and remains the world’s top destination in terms of international arrivals with 83 million. Italy moved up one place to 6th position in receipts (US$ 40 billion) and is still 5th in arrivals (52 million).
The United Kingdom climbed two places to 6th position in arrivals, but moved down four places in receipts to 7th, partly due to the depreciation of the British pound, resulting in lower earnings in terms of US dollars. Germany remains 8th in terms of receipts and 7th in arrivals, while Hong Kong (China) continues to rank 9th in receipts and 13th in arrivals. Australia re-entered the Top 10 in terms of receipts at number 10, while moving from 42nd to 40th position in arrivals. Mexico climbed another place to 8th position in arrivals and moved up two in receipts to 14th. Turkey completes the Top 10 in arrivals, moving down an estimated four places (data still pending for 2016) following the security incidents and failed coup last year. In terms of receipts, Turkey moved down five places to 17th position.
China continues to lead global outbound travel, following ten years of double-digit growth in spending, and after rising to the top of the ranking in 2012. Expenditure by Chinese travellers grew by 12% in 2016 to reach US$ 261 billion. The number of outbound travellers rose by 6% to reach 135 million in 2016. Tourism expenditure from the United States, the world’s second largest source market, increased by 8% in 2016 to reach US$ 124 billion.
Germany, the United Kingdom and France are Europe’s top source markets, and rank third, fourth and fifth respectively in the world. Germany reported an increase of 3% in spending last year to reach US$ 80 billion. Demand from the United Kingdom remained sound last year, despite the significant depreciation of the British pound following the referendum on EU membership (Brexit). UK residents’ overnight visits abroad were up by 5 million (+8%) to reach 69 million, with expenditure close to US$ 64 billion (+14%). France reported a 3% growth in tourism expenditure in 2016 to reach US$ 40 billion.
The five source markets in the bottom half of the Top 10 all moved up one place as the Russian Federation moved down from 6th to 11th place, following a significant decline in spending abroad. Canada moved up to 6th place, despite flat growth in international spending (US$ 29 billion), while outbound overnight trips declined by 3% to 31 million. The Republic of Korea spent 5% more in 2016 (US$ 27 billion) and moved up further to 7th place, after having entered the Top 10 in 2015.
The number of outbound travellers increased by 16% to reach 22 million. Italy climbed to 8th place with US$ 25 billion in outbound tourism expenditure, up 2% from 2015, while reporting a 3% growth in overnight trips to 29 million. Australia moved up to 9th place with a 6% growth in spending to US$ 25 billion, and a 5% increase in outbound trips to 10 million. Hong Kong (China) completes the Top 10 with 5% growth in expenditure to US$ 24 billion and 92 million outbound trips (+3%). Other source markets outside the Top 10, which showed double-digit growth in expenditure last year were: Spain, India, Argentina, Qatar, Thailand, Israel, Ireland, Ukraine, Vietnam and Egypt.
Marcian Concepts have been contracted by Selibe Phikwe Economic Unit (SPEDU) in a P230 million project to raise the town from its ghost status. The project is in the design and building phase of building an industrial hub for Phikwe; putting together an infrastructure in Bolelanoto and Senwelo industrial sites.
This project comes as a life-raft for Selibe Phikwe, a town which was turned into a ghost town when the area’s economic mainstay, BCL mine, closed four years ago. In that catastrophe, 5000 people lost their livelihoods as the town’s life sunk into a gloomy horizon. Businesses were closed and some migrated to better places as industrial places and malls became almost empty.
However, SPEDU has now started plans to breathe life into the town. Information reaching this publication is that Marcian Concepts is now on the ground at Bolelanoto and Senwelo and works have commenced. Marcian as a contractor already promises to hire Phikwe locals only, even subcontract only companies from the area as a way to empower the place’s economy.
The procurement method for the tender is Open Domestic bidding which means Joint Ventures with foreign companies is not allowed. According to Marcian Concepts General Manager, Andre Strydom, in an interview with this publication, the project will come with 150 to 200 jobs. The project is expected to take 15 months at a tune of P230 531 402. 76. Marcian will put together construction of roadworks, storm-water drains, water reticulation, street lighting and telecommunication infrastructure. This tender was flouted last year August, but was awarded in June this year. This project is seen as the beginning of Phikwe’s revival and investors will be targeted to the area after the town has worn the ghost city status for almost half a decade.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has slashed its outlook the world economy projecting a significantly deeper recession and slower recovery than it anticipated just two months ago.
On Wednesday when delivering its World Economic Outlook report titled “A long difficult Ascent” the Washington Based global lender said it now expects global gross domestic product to shrink 4.9% this year, more than the 3% predicted in April. For 2021, IMF experts have projected growth of 5.4%, down from 5.8%. “We are projecting a somewhat less severe though still deep recession in 2020, relative to our June forecast,” said Gita Gopinath Economic Counsellor and Director of Research.
The struggle of humanity is now how to dribble past the ‘Great Pandemic’ in order to salvage a lean economic score. Botswana is already working on dwindling fiscal accounts, budget deficit, threatened foreign reserves and the GDP data that is screaming recession.
Latest data by think tank and renowned rating agency, Moody’s Investor Service, is that Botswana’s fiscal status is on the red and it is mostly because of its mineral-dependency garment and tourism-related taxation. Botswana decided to close borders as one of the containment measures of Covid-19; trade and travellers have been locked out of the country. Moody’s also acknowledges that closing borders by countries like Botswana results in the collapse of tourism which will also indirectly weigh on revenue through lower import duties, VAT receipts and other taxes.
Latest economic data shows that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter of 2020 with a decrease of 27 percent. One of the factors that led to contraction of the local economy is the suspension of air travel occasioned by COVID-19 containment measures impacted on the number of tourists entering through the country’s borders and hence affecting the output of the hotels and restaurants industry. This will also be weighed down by, according to Moody’s, emerging markets which will see government losing average revenue worth 2.1 percentage points (pps) of GDP in 2020, exceeding the 1.0 pps loss in advanced economies (AEs).
“Fiscal revenue in emerging markets is particularly vulnerable to this current crisis because of concentrated revenue structures and less sophisticated tax administrations than those in AEs. Oil exporters will see the largest falls but revenue volatility is a common feature of their credit profiles historically,” says Moody’s. The domino effects of containment measures could be seen cracking all sectors of the local economy as taxes from outside were locked out by the closure of borders hence dwindling tax revenue.
Moody’s has placed Botswana among oil importers, small, tourism-reliant economies which will see the largest fall in revenue. Botswana is in the top 10 of that pecking order where Moody’s pointed out recently that other resource-rich countries like Botswana (A2 negative) will also face a large drop in fiscal revenue.
This situation of countries’ revenue on the red is going to stay stubborn for a long run. Moody’s predicts that the spending pressures faced by governments across the globe are unlikely to ease in the short term, particularly because this crisis has emphasized the social role governments perform in areas like healthcare and labour markets.
For countries like Botswana, these spending pressures are generally exacerbated by a range of other factors like a higher interest burden, infrastructure deficiencies, weaker broader public sector, higher subsidies, lower incomes and more precarious employment. As a result, most of the burden for any fiscal consolidation is likely to fall on the revenue side, says Moody’s.
Moody’s then moves to the revenue spin of taxation. The rating agency looked at the likelihood and probability of sovereigns to raise up revenue by increasing tax to offset what was lost in mineral revenue and tourism-related tax revenue. Moody’s said the capacity to raise tax revenue distinguishes governments from other debt issuers. “In theory, governments can change a given tax system as they wish, subject to the relevant legislative process and within the constraints of international law. In practice, however, there are material constraints,” says Moody’s.
‘‘The coronavirus crisis will lead to long-lasting revenue losses for emerging market sovereigns because their ability to implement and enforce effective revenue-raising measures in response will be an important credit driver over the next few years because of their sizeable spending pressures and the subdued recovery in the global economy we expect next year.’’
According to Moody’s, together with a rise in stimulus and healthcare spending related to the crisis, the think tank expects this drop in revenue will trigger a sizeable fiscal deterioration across emerging market sovereigns. Most countries, including Botswana, are under pressure of widening their tax bases, Moody’s says that this will be challenging. “Even if governments reversed or do not extend tax-easing measures implemented in 2020 to support the economy through the coronavirus shock, which would be politically challenging, this would only provide a modest boost to revenue, especially as these measures were relatively modest in most emerging markets,” says Moody’s.
Botswana has been seen internationally as a ‘tax ease’ country and its taxes are seen as lower when compared to its regional counterparts. This country’s name has also been mentioned in various international investigative journalism tax evasion reports. In recent years there was a division of opinions over whether this country can stretch its tax base. But like other sovereigns who have tried but struggled to increase or even maintain their tax intake before the crisis, Botswana will face additional challenges, according to Moody’s.
“Additional measures to reduce tax evasion and cutting tax expenditure should support the recovery in government revenue, albeit from low levels,” advised Moody’s. Botswana’s tax revenue to the percentage of the GDP was 27 percent in 2008, dropped to 23 percent in 2010 to 23 percent before rising to 27 percent again in 2012. In years 2013 and 2014 the percentage went to 25 percent before it took a slip to decline in respective years of 2015 up to now where it is at 19.8 percent.