The race to succeed Vice President Mokgweetsi Masisi has already begun. Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) activists based at Moshupa/Manyana constituency are on track to come into sight in a bid to succeed area MP, Vice President Mokgweetsi Masisi.
The constituency is expected to go for a bye election next year subsequent to Masisi’s elevation to the highest office of the presidency, as prescribed by the system of automatic succession. Masisi will assume the presidency in seven months time on 1 April 2018. In the last elections Masisi representing BDP triumphed by a convincing 6831 lead against Ngaka Monageng of the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC) who got 3231 votes while Benny Stegling of Botswana Congress Party (BCP) got 2557.
Moshupa also has 8 wards which are all in the hands of the ruling BDP except one which was won through a by election by opposition Botswana Congress Party (BCP) being Moshupa West. Other wards include Lotlhakane West, Manyana/Mogonye, Moshupa East, Moshupa North, Moshupa South, Pitseng and Ralekgetho. With a few months before the BDP Chairman Masisi becomes president, already there are talks of possible candidates for Moshupa/Manyana to represent the party at the area and possibly succeed Masisi in the constituency.
BDP sources that spoke to WeekendPost hinted that a rising BDP luminary in the name of Karabo Gare who is little known in national politics although active in the area seems all set to contest for the vacancy. They point that all stakes are high for the Young Turk who it is said has worked tirelessly for the party in the area signalling his intentions to fill the shoes of the Vice President in future if it opens up.“As Masisi rises to the presidenc, chances are he will bring along him his trusted lieutenant, Karabo Gare to occupy his seat as a representative of our constituency,” a source in the area closer to the developments told this publication.
According to the source, it is clear Gare will contest the party primaries and sail through as he has enough support on the ground and closer to VP Masisi. Another source who spoke to WeekendPost hinted that Gare may triumph as he has done a lot for the constituency even under the leadership of Masisi. However, when contacted for a comment, Gare was cagey with confirming his intentions despite allegations in the area of his imminent contestation instead saying he will announce the news at the “right time”.
“I can confirm that should constituents find the need to send me to parliament to represent them at the bye election expected for next year, I can avail myself,” he told WeekendPost in an exclusive interview. He insisted that “I am more than ready; I am more than ready to take up the assignment.” Sensing that he may be misconstrued on the matter, he emphasised that he can only make the decision “when the VP steps out from the role of the Member of Parliament (MP).” Although he is seen as Masisi’s blue eyed boy, and seemed to be concealing some more information during the interview; Gare said his relationship with the VP is ordinary against what some constituents’ sentiments on the ground.
“I don’t think Masisi will have a preferred candidate, even I,” he explained. “Yes he is my elder, we have a good relationship with the VP but it is not exceptional or distinct from the others. He treats us fairly and takes us as equals. So I don’t think he can take sides with anyone. As I know him, he would want the constituents to take an informed decision for them as to whom they want as their next representative, he won’t disadvantage anyone in my judgement. In fact I believe he is more of a unifier,” Gare asserted.
After his praises on Masisi, Gare took a shot to the opposition saying although their presence is felt on the ground, but are not viable. “First of all generally I don’t think UDC structure is viable. Otherwise there would be no individual parties under UDC,” he pointed out. According to Gare, any government needs a stronger opposition to keep them accountable. “But I feel although we need a strong opposition, opposition UDC is united but again not united. We need a credible opposition at the moment. I don’t undermine them but again I don’t think their project is viable.”
He added that in politics you can only be confident but not complacent nonetheless. He further highlighted that “I believe we will retain Moshupa/Manyana constituency with the same margin as previously if not better. People on the ground inform me that we are still strong.” Previously, Gare worked at Local Enterprise Authority (LEA) as a Business Advisor. While at LEA, he assisted Moshupa constituents for free, while also taking people through entrepreneurship awareness workshops.
In football, he also played as role of Chairman for local team Kgabosetso which was subsequently elevated to First Division owing to his shrewd leadership. Prior, he also occupied the position of Accountant Officer at Botswana National Sports Council (BNSC) and later serving at Botswana railways as Senior Accounts and Administration Officer before joining LEA.
The party is expected to invite candidates in whom other hopefuls will emerge, to lock horns for representing the party at primary elections upon an opening of the vacancy next year in line with the party constitution, tradition and procedure. BDP Branch Chairman in the constituency, Bushi Tshiping, told WeekendPost in a separate interview that upon Masisi’s succession to the presidency, “the party constitution and procedure will be followed accordingly” to fill the shoes of Masisi in the area.
The United States (US) will on the 3rd of November 2020 chose between incumbent Donald Trump of the Republicans and former Vice President Joe Biden of the Democrats amid the coronavirus pandemics, which has affected how voting is conducted in the world’s biggest economy.
Trump (74) seeks re-election after trouncing Hillary Clinton in 2016, while Biden (77) is going for his first shot as Democratic nominee after previous unsuccessful spells.
US Presidents mostly succeed in their re-election bid, but there have been nine individuals who failed to garner a second term mandate, the latest being George W H. Bush, a Republican who served as the 41st US President between 1989 and 1993.
Dr Mark Rozell, a Dean of the School of Policy and Government at George Mason University in Arlington, Virginia describes the complex US electoral system that will deliver the winner at the 3rd November elections.
“The founders of our Republic de-centralised authority significantly in creating our constitutional system, which means that they gave an enormous amount of independent power and authority to State and local governments,” Dr Rozell told international media on Elections 2020 Virtual Reporting Tour.
Unlike parliamentary democracies, like Botswana the United States does not have all of the national government elected in one year. They do not have what is commonly called mandate elections where the entire federal government is elected all in one election cycle giving a “mandate” to a particular political party to lead, and instead US have what are called staggered elections, elections over time.
The two house Congress, members of the House of Representatives have two-year long terms of office. Every two years the entire House of Representatives is up for re-election, but senators serve for six years and one third of the Senate is elected every two years.
For this election cycle, US citizens will be electing the President and Vice
President, the entire House of Representatives and one third of the open or contested seats in the Senate, whereas two thirds are still fulfilling the remainder of their terms beyond this year.
An important facet of US electoral system to understand given the federalism nature of the republic, the US elect presidents State by State, therefore they do not have a national popular vote for the presidency.
“We have a national popular vote total that says that Hillary Clinton got three million more votes than Donald Trump or in Year 2000 that Al Gore got a half million more votes than George W. Bush, but we have what is called a State by State winner takes all system where each State is assigned a number of electors to our Electoral College and the candidate who wins the popular vote within each State takes 100 percent of the electors to the Electoral College,” explained Dr Rozell.
“And that is why mathematically, it is possible for someone to win the popular vote but lose the presidency.”
Dr Rozell indicated that in 2016, Hillary Clinton won very large popular majorities in some big population States like California, but the system allows a candidate to only have to win a State by one vote to win a 100 percent of its electors, the margin does not matter.
“Donald Trump won many more States by smaller margins, hence he got an Electoral College majority.”
Another interesting features by the way of US constitutional system, according to Dr Rozell, but extremely rare, is what is called the faithless elector.
“That’s the elector to the Electoral College who says, ‘I’m not going to vote the popular vote in my State, I think my State made a bad decision and I’m going to break with the popular vote,’’ Dr Rozell said.
“That’s constitutionally a very complicated matter in our federalism system because although the federal constitution says electors may exercise discretion, most States have passed State laws making it illegal for any elector to the Electoral College to break faith with the popular vote of that State, it is a criminal act that can be penalized if one is to do that. And we just had an important Supreme Court case that upheld the right of the states to impose and to enforce this restriction”
There are 538 electors at the Electoral College, 270 is the magic number, the candidate who gets 270 or more becomes President of the United States.
If however there are more candidates, and this happens extremely rarely, and a third candidate got some electors to the Electoral College denying the two major party candidates, either one getting a majority, nobody gets 270 or more, then the election goes to the House of Representatives and the House of Representatives votes among the top three vote getters as to who should be the next President.
“You’d have to go back to the early 19th century to have such a scenario, and that’s not going to happen this year unless there is a statistical oddity, which would be a perfect statistical tie of 269 to 269 which could happen but you can just imagine how incredibly unlikely that is,” stated Dr Rozell.
BLUE STATES vs RED STATES
Since the 2000 United States presidential election, red states and blue states have referred to states of the United States whose voters predominantly choose either the Republican Party (red) or Democratic Party (blue) presidential candidates.
Many states have populations that are so heavily concentrated in the Democratic party or the Republican party that there is really no competition in those states.
California is a heavily Democratic State, so is New York and Maryland. It is given that Joe Biden will win those states. Meanwhile Texas, Florida and Alabama are republicans. So, the candidates will spent no time campaigning in those states because it is already a given.
However there are swing states, where there is a competition between about five and 10 states total in each election cycle that make a difference, and that is where the candidates end up spending almost all of their time.
“So it ends up making a national contest for the presidency actually look like several state-wide contests with candidates spending a lot of time talking about State and local issues in those parts of the country,” said Dr Rozell.
High Commissioner of the Federal Government of Nigeria to Botswana, His Excellency Umar Zainab Salisu, has challenged President Dr Mokgweetsi Masisi to move swiftly and lobby Africa’s richest man, Nigerian Billionaire, Aliko Dangote to invest in Botswana.
Speaking during a meeting with President Masisi at Office of President on Thursday Zainab Salisu said Dangote has expressed massive interest in setting up billion dollar industries in Botswana. “We have a lot of investors who wish to come and invest in Botswana , when we look at Botswana we don’t see Botswana itself , but we are lured by its geographic location , being in the centre of Southern Africa presents a good opportunity for strategic penetration into other markets of the region,” said Salisu.
As murder cases and violent incidents involving couples and or lovers continue to be recorded daily, Specially Elected Member of Parliament, Dr Unity Dow has called for more funding of non-governmental organizations and accelerated action from government to come up with laws that could inhibit would-be perpetrators of crimes related to Gender Based Violence (GBV).
Just after Dr Dow had deposited her views on this subject with this reporter, a young man in Molepolole opened fire on a married woman he was having an affair with; and ended her life instantly. While it is this heinous cases that get projected to the public space, the former minister argues that the secrecy culture is keeping other real GBV cases under wraps in many spaces in the country.
The former Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation said there is GBV all the time in all kinds of places. “We have become accustomed to stories of rapes, marital rapes, defilement of children, beatings and psychological violence and even killings,” she said.
Gender-based violence is a phenomenon deeply rooted in gender inequality, Dow is worried that there is absolutely no social punishment for perpetrators; they will continue to have the same friends, jobs, wives, homes, as before. Yet another factor, she said, is that there is little or no “justice” for victims of GBV.
The renowned activist said justice for GBV victims is not just the jailing of the perpetrator. “Justice for victims means an agile, victim-friendly, accessible (time, money and procedures) and restorative justice system.”
Asked what could be leading to a spike in Gender Based Violence cases or incidents, she observed that there is no one factor to which this spike can be attributed. “The most obvious factor is stress as a result of economic distress and or poverty. Poverty makes one vulnerable and open to compromises that they would otherwise not make. For perpetrators with anger management issues, economic stress leads to lashing out to those closest to them. Another factor is the disintegration of families and family values,” she opined.
According to Dow, no government anywhere in the world is doing enough, period. “We know the places and spaces where women and girls are unsafe. We know the challenges they face in their attempts to exit those spaces and places.” The former Judge of the High Court said GBV undermines the health, dignity, security and autonomy of its victims, yet it remains shrouded in the culture of silence.
Asked what could be done to arrest GBV cases, Dow said it is critical to involve and fund civil society organizations. She observed that much of the progress done in the area of women’s human rights was during the time when Botswana had strong and funded civil society organizations.
“The funding dried up when Botswana was declared a middle-income country but unfortunately external funding was not replaced by local funding,” she acknowledged.
Further Dow said relevant government institutions must be funded and strengthened.
“Thirdly, create a society in which it is not okay to humiliate, rape, beat or kill women. You create this by responding to GBV the same way we have responded to livestock theft. We need to create agile mechanisms that hear cases quickly and allow for the removal of suspected perpetrators from their homes, work places, boards, committees, etc.”
The former Minister said the much anticipated Inter-Ministerial Task Force on Gender Based Violence will have its work cut out for it. According to Dow, GBV is not just a justice issue, it’s not just a gender issue, but rather an issue that cuts across health, education, labour, economic, housing and politics. “As long as any one believes it is someone else’s problem, we will all have the problem,” she said.
In her view, Dow said every work, educational and other place must have a GBV Policy and/or Code of Conduct. “It is important that we acknowledge that the majority of men are law-abiding. The problem is their silence, in the face of injustice,” she observed.