An investment analyst with Stock Brokers Botswana, Donald Motsomi has said conversations with industry leaders in the banking sector give credence to an expectation of higher credit growth in 2018 largely on the back of increased government spending which is also expected to boost business activity in the economy.
This comes on the backdrop of a harsh 2016 that saw the sector’s profitability came under pressure with net income declining by 9.6% and ROE falling to 7% (2016: 14.4%). Writing in the Stockbrokers Botswana Banking Sector review report, Motsomi indicates: “We are therefore cautiously optimistic of a pickup in credit growth and have factored this into our forecasts. Rates are expected to remain unchanged, and we have also factored the October rate cut to translate to a slight reduction in interest margins.”
He says given the low interest rate environment and tight competition in the sector, banks are looking to increase the contribution of non-funded income to their revenues. The SBB analyst furthers states that there is an increased focus on digitization through numerous initiatives including mobile technology, enhanced ATM functionalities, online banking, and partnerships with merchants through point of sale machines. There is growth potential from leveraging on these initiatives. Further, banks are increasingly diversifying their services through offering insurance and wealth management services.
“The commercial banking segment of the sector could see the entry of a new player in the short to medium term. Botswana Building Society (BBS), a statutory bank registered as a society, is currently undergoing demutualization and conversion into a public limited company with the intention to obtain a commercial banking license from the Bank of Botswana. BBS, although looking to focus mainly on the unbanked, would intensify competition in the sector through financing banked individuals and SMMEs given they obtain the license. The bank has an established customer base from its property finance loans and saving and investment products, which it could leverage on.”
According to Motsomi, the implementation of IFRS 9 is set to impact the banks, with some more poised to withstand the hit than others. Banks’ capital is set to be negatively impacted. “FNBB and Barclays both have strong capital positions, while Stanchart’s capital levels were weakened by the heavy loss incurred in 2017. The bank is currently looking at various options to enhance its capital base in preparation for the standard’s implementation. The standard will also require impairment recognition to be incurred in a timelier manner.”
Motsomi argues that the banking industry landscape has changed over the last five years with credit growth slowing from double digit growth to the lows seen in 2017. Furthermore, the Monetary Policy has been accommodative over the period with the bank rate coming down from 9.5% in 2013 to 5% in 2017. He states that the decline in credit growth and rates over the years, as well as increased competition has seen the industry’s profitability normalizing, as seen from some of the listed banks’ ROEs coming down from as high as 30 – 40% to regions of 18 – 24%.
“The period under review, 2017, was a challenging one for the sector characterized by slower GDP growth of 2.4% (2016: 4.3%), weak business confidence, and marginal growth in employment creation and wages. These factors translated to credit growth of 5.6% (2016: 6.2%), with reports of businesses generally holding back on utilizing facilities and the aforementioned pressures on households limiting their capacity to take on more debt,” writes Motsomi in the SBB Banking Sector Review.
Going forward, Motsomi and the SBB analysts expect household credit growth to moderate on the back of the pressures faced as well as higher expected inflation for 2018. They stress that Business credit growth should be more robust given higher levels of business confidence for the year as per Bank of Botswana Business Expectations Survey, and increased government spending in the run up to next year’s general elections.
Commenting on the 2017 decline in credit growth to 5.6% (2016: 6.2%), Motsomi says it was attributable to a slowdown in lending to both businesses and households. Annual credit growth to businesses was 3.2% (2016: 4.2%), which was largely due to loan repayments by parastatals. Household credit growth was 7.2% (2016: 7.6%), the lower growth largely attributable to lower growth in mortgage lending of 4.8% (2016: 6.3%) while in contrast; unsecured loan growth was higher to 8.8% (2016: 8.3%).
Total deposits growth was sharply lower at 1.8% (2016: 4.1%) owing to a reduction in household deposits of -8.4% (2016: -3.6%) indicative of the pressures consumers are facing. Business deposits growth albeit lower was robust at 5.1% (2016: 7.2%). According to the SBB Banking Sector review, the higher growth in credit compared to funding saw the sector Loan to Deposit ratio increase to 85.2% (2016: 82.2%).On the backdrop of an economy operating with a negative output gap and the positive inflation outlook, the Central Bank cut the Bank rate by 50 bps to 5% (Prime rate: 6.5%) in October 2017.
“The impact on credit growth, if any, will be seen in 2018 as well as further squeeze on the sector’s margins. Lower deposit rates in line with the rate cut could act as a disincentive for households to save, which would exacerbate the reduction in household deposits further. A continuation of this trend would make it particularly difficult for banks to constrain their cost of funding given that 75.8% of total deposits are business deposits, which are relatively costlier.”
The Review states that Sector net interest income rose 3.4% on the back of higher interest income growth of 3.0% in comparison to interest expense growth of 1.7%. Non-interest income increased 3.0%. Despite this growth, the sector’s profitability came under pressure due to higher provisioning and operating expense growth.
Meanwhile Provisions increased 17.9%, with NPLs/Total Loans rising to 5.3% (2016: 4.9%). The higher NPL ratio was a result of higher NPLs/Total Loans for businesses, which increased to 6.4% (2016: 4.9%). However, NPLs/Total Loans for households reduced to 4.5% (2016: 4.9%). “This is a comforting development considering the concerns over high indebtedness of households.
Faster growth in expenses vis-à-vis income translated to a higher cost to income ratio of 63.9% (2016: 57.0%). Ultimately, sector net income declined 9.6% and ROE more than halved to 7% (2016: 14.4%). We believe Stanchart’s losses for 2017 played a significant part in the sector’s profitability decline given the bank’s large market share,” observes Motsomi.
There are 10 licensed commercial banks in Botswana, with the 5 largest banks accounting for 90% of total assets according to the latest Banking Supervision Annual Report. The listed banks, First National Bank Botswana, Barclays Bank of Botswana, and Standard Chartered Bank Botswana are amongst these dominant players.
The recent study on youth entrepreneurship in Botswana has identified difficult access to funding, land, machinery, lack of entrepreneurial mindset and proper training as serious challenges that continue to hamper youth entrepreneurship development in this country.
The study conducted by Alliance for African Partnership (AAP) in collaboration with University of Botswana has confirmed that despite the government and private sector multi-billion pula entrepreneurship development initiatives, many young people in Botswana continue to fail to grow their businesses into sustainable and successful companies that can help reduce unemployment.
University of Botswana researchers Gaofetege Ganamotse and Rudolph Boy who compiled findings in the 2022 study report for Botswana stated that as part of the study interviews were conducted with successful youth entrepreneurs to understand their critical success factors.
According to the researchers other participants were community leaders, business mentors, Ministry of Trade and Industry, Ministry of Youth, Gender, Sport and Culture, financial institutions, higher education institutions, non-governmental institutions, policymakers, private organizations, and support structures such as legal and technical experts and accountants who were interviewed to understand how they facilitate successful youth entrepreneurship.
The researchers said they found that although Botswana government is perceived as the most supportive to businesses when compared to other governments in sub-Saharan Africa, youth entrepreneurs still face challenges when accessing government funding. “Several finance-related challenges were identified by youth entrepreneurs. Some respondents lamented the lack of access to start-up finance, whereas others mentioned lack of access to infrastructure.”
The researchers stated that in Botswana entrepreneurship is not yet perceived as a field or career of choice by many youth “Participants in the study emphasized that the many youth are more of necessity entrepreneurs, seeing business venturing as a “fall back. Other facilitators mentioned that some youth do not display creativity, mind-blowing innovative solutions, and business management skills. Some youth entrepreneurs like to take shortcuts like selling sweets or muffins.”
According to the researchers, some of the youth do not display perseverance when they are faced with adversity in business. “Young people lack of an entrepreneurial mindset is a common challenge among youth in business. Some have a mindset focused on free services, handouts, and rapid gains. They want overnight success. As such, they give up easily when faced with challenges. On the other hand, some participants argue that they may opt for quick wins because they do not have access to any land, machinery, offices, and vehicles.”
The researchers stated that most youth involved in business ventures do not have the necessary training or skills to maintain a business. “Poor financial management has also been cited as one of the challenges for youth entrepreneurs, such as using profit for personal reasons rather than investing in the business. Also some are not being able to separate their livelihood from their businesses.
Lastly, youth entrepreneurs reported a lack of experience as one of the challenges. For example, the experience of running a business with projections, sticking to the projections, having an accounting system, maintaining a clean and clear billing system, and sound administration system.”
According to the researchers, the participants in the study emphasized that there is fragmentation within the entrepreneurial ecosystem, whereby there is replication of business activities without any differentiation. “There is no integration of the ecosystem players. As such, they end up with duplicate programs targeting the same objectives. The financial sector recommended that there is a need for an intermediary body that will bring all the ecosystem actors together and serve as a “one-stop shop” for entrepreneurs and build mentorship programs that accommodate the business lifecycle from inception to growth.”
Botswana Housing Corporation (BHC) is said to have recorded an operating surplus of P61 Million, an improvement compared to the previous year. The housing, office and other building needs giant met with stakeholders recently to share how the business has been.
The P61 million is a significant increase against the P6 million operating loss realized in the prior year. Profit before income tax also increased significantly from P2 million in the prior year to P72 million which resulted in an overall increase in surplus after tax from P1 million prior year to P64 million for the year under review.
Chief of Finance Officer, Diratsagae Kgamanyane disclosed; “This growth in surplus was driven mainly by rental revenue that increased by 15% from P209 million to P240 million and reduction in expenditure from P272 million to P214 million on the back of cost containment.” He further stated that sales of high margin investment properties also contributed significantly to the growth in surplus as well as impairment reversals on receivables amounting to P25 million.
It is said that the Corporation recorded a total revenue of P702 million, an 8% decrease when compared to the P760 million recorded in the prior year. “Sales revenue which is one of the major revenue streams returned impressive margins, contributing to the overall growth in the gross margin,” added Kgamanyane.
He further stated professional fees revenue line declined significantly by 64% to P5 million from P14 million in the prior year which attributed to suspension of planned projects by their clients due to Covid-19 pandemic. “Facilities Management revenue decreased by P 24 million from P69 million recorded in prior year to P45 million due to reduction in projects,” Kgamanyane said.
The Corporation’s strength is on its investment properties portfolio that stood at P1.4 billion at the end of the reporting period. “The Corporation continues its strategy to diversify revenue streams despite both facilities management income and professional fees being challenged by the prevailing economic conditions that have seen its major clients curtailing spending,” added the CEO.
On the one hand, the Corporation’s Strategic Performance which intended to build 12 300 houses by 2023 has so far managed to build 4 830 houses under their SHHA funding scheme, 1 240 houses for commercial or external use which includes use by government and 1 970 houses to rent to individuals.
BHC Acting CEO Pascaline Sefawe noted that; BHC’s planned projects are said to include building 336 flat units in Gaborone Block 7 at approximately P224 million, 100 units in Maun at approximately P78 million, 13 units in Phakalane at approximately P26 million, 212 units in Kazungula at approximately P160 million, 96 units at approximately P42 million in Francistown and 84 units at approximately P61 million in Letlhakane. Emphasing; “People tend to accuse us of only building houses in Gaborone, so here we are, including other areas in our planned projects.”
Researchers from some government owned regulatory institutions in the financial sector have projected that the banking sector’s profitability could increase, following Bank of Botswana Monetary Policy Committee recent decision to increase monetary policy rate.
In its bid to manage inflation, Bank of Botswana Monetary Policy Committee last month increased monetary policy rate by 0.50 percent from 1.65 percent to 2.15 percent, a development which resulted with commercial banking sector increasing interest rate in lending to household and companies. As a result of BoB adjustment of Monetary Policy Rate, from 1.65 percent to 2.15 percent commercial banks increased prime lending rate from 5.76 percent to 6.26 percent.
Researchers from Bank of Botswana, the Non-Bank Financial Institutions Regulatory Authority, the Financial Intelligence Agency and the Botswana Stock Exchange indicated that due to prospects of high inflation during the second half of 2022, there is a possibility that the Monetary Policy Committee could further increase monetary policy rate in the next meeting in August 25 2022.
Inflation rose from 9.6 percent in April 2022 to 11.9 percent in May 2022, remaining above the Bank of Botswana medium-term objective range of 3 – 6 percent. According to the researchers inflation could increase further and remain high due to factors that include: the potential increase in international commodity prices beyond current forecasts, logistical constraints due to lags in production, the economic and price effects of the ongoing Russia- Ukraine conflict, uncertain COVID-19 profile, domestic risk factors relating to possible regular annual administered price adjustments, short-term unintended consequences of import restrictions resulting with shortages in supplies leading to price increases, as well as second-round effects of the recent increases in administered prices “Furthermore, the likelihood of further increases in domestic fuel prices in response to persistent high international oil prices could add upward pressure to inflation,” said the researchers.
The researchers indicated that Bank of Botswana could be forced to further increase monetary policy rate from the current 2.15 percent if inflation rises persistently. “Should inflation rise persistently this could necessitate an upward adjustment in the policy rate. It is against this background that the interest rate scenario assumes a 1.5 percentage points (moderate scenario) and 2.25 percentage points (severe scenario) upward adjustment in the policy rate,” said the researchers.
The researchers indicated that while any upward adjustment on BoB monetary policy rate and commercial banks prime lending rate result with increase in the cost of borrowing for household and compnies, it increase profitability for the banking sector. “Increases in the policy rate are associated with an overall increase in bank profitability, with resultant increases in the capital adequacy ratio of 0.1 percentage points and 0.2 percentage points for the moderate and severe scenarios, respectively,” said the researchers who added that upward adjustment in monetary policy rate would raise extra capital for the banking sector.
“The increase in profit generally reflects the banking industry’s positive interest rate gap, where interest earning assets exceed interest earning liabilities maturing in the next twelve months. Therefore, an increase of 1.5 percentage points in the policy rate would result in industry gains of P71.7 million (4.1 percent increase), while a 2.25 percentage points increase would lead to a gain of P173.9 million (6.1 percent increase), dominated by large banks,” said the researchers.