Confidence among businesses strengthened in the first half of 2018 compared to the second half of 2017, and is expected to rise further in the survey horizon. This is according to Business Expectations Survey (BES) conducted by the Bank of Botswana between March and April 2018.
The BES summarises views of the business community regarding their perceptions about the current and future state of the economy. The response rate stood at 89 percent in the current survey. “This higher confidence is also reflected in the forecast of a higher domestic growth rate of 5.3 percent for 2018 announced in the 2018 Budget Speech. Furthermore, in line with previous trends, more firms expect better business conditions going forward, with an overall confidence level of 68 percent for the second half of 2018 and 79 percent for the twelve-month period to June 2019. The improved confidence is reflected in both domestic-oriented and export-oriented firms,” reads the Survey report.
Furthermore the BES report notes that confidence amongst domestic-oriented businesses is 58 percent in H1:2018, compared to 46 percent in the second half of 2017, attributable to the estimated increase in Government spending in 2018/19 and the new leadership in the country.
Looking ahead, the BES report states that the level of optimism for domestic firms improved to 69 percent in H2:2018 and 78 percent in the year to June 2019. “Similarly, the confidence level of export-oriented businesses increased from 50 percent in H2:2017 to 55 percent in H1:2018 and is anticipated to increase to 60 percent in H2:2018, before rising markedly to 82 percent in H2:2018-H1:2019, reflecting the anticipated improvement in global trading conditions.”
Businesses expect domestic output growth in 2018 to be higher than in 2017 but lower than that anticipated in the 2018 Budget Speech. On average, businesses expect real GDP to grow by 4.1 percent in 2018. The projection is lower than the government forecast of 5.3 percent or 2018 announced in the 2018 Budget Speech.
However, the expected economic growth rate for 2018 by the business community is broadly in line with overall government expectations of an improvement in economic activity for the year and higher than the growth of 2.4 percent realised in 2017. According to the report modest economic growth is expected globally in 2018 and 2019. For the domestic economy, growth is expected to be driven improvements in the mining and non-mining sectors.
Global output is projected to expand by 3.9 percent in 2018 and 2019, an upward revision of 0.2 percentage points relative to the October 2017 forecast, and slightly higher than the 3.8 percent growth in 2017. “The upward revision to the forecast of global output growth reflects anticipated developments in advanced economies due to supportive financial conditions and the spillover effects of expansionary fiscal policy in the United States (US), as well as the expected increase in output growth in emerging market and developing economies,” reads the BES report.
In addition, it reflects the sentiment that growth momentum of 2017 will be sustained. Advanced economies are forecast to grow by 2.5 percent in 2018 and 2.2 percent in 2019, compared to 2.3 percent realised in 2017. Meanwhile, output growth in the emerging market and developing economies is expected to increase from 4.8 percent in 2017 to 4.9 percent and 5.1 percent in 2018 and 2019, respectively. The prospective improvement in performance in emerging market countries is due to recovery in commodity prices and continued fiscal support.
However, inward-looking policies, the rising financial vulnerabilities and increasing geopolitical and trade tensions, present downside risks to global economic performance. 86 percent of businesses expect to utilize atleast 50 percent of their productive capacity in the first half of 2018, consistent with the optimistic outlook for 2018. Despite the perceived challenging business environment, survey respondents are relatively optimistic (compared to the previous survey) about the demand for their products in 2018.
The improved optimism, in turn, has led to higher expectations regarding production, as reflected by the net balance of 31 percent in H1:2018 against 7 percent in H2:2017. Meanwhile, businesses are expecting an improvement in profitability as reflected by the net balance of negative 14 percent profitability for H1:2018 against negative 22 percent in H2:2017. The improved outlook is attributable to strong growth in agriculture, higher commodity prices and recovery in investor sentiment, which is reflective of the recent political developments in the country.
In the domestic economy, real GDP grew by 2.4 percent in 2017, lower than the growth of 4.3 percent recorded in 2016. The lower increase was partly attributed to a slower growth of non-mining GDP, mainly reflecting the deceleration in output growth for trade, hotels and 3 restaurants, as a result of lower quality of diamonds sold by De Beers Global Sightholder Sales (DBGSS) in the third quarter of 2017. Moreover, the larger contraction of 11.2 percent in mining output during 2017 compared to a decline of 3.5 percent in 2016, mainly due to the closure of the BCL and Tati Nickel mines in October 2016, also stifled overall economic growth.
The 2018 Budget Speech presented a forecast of output growth of 5.3 percent for 2018. The positive outlook is largely attributable to the projected improvement in the mining sector. The mining sector is expected to recover due to improvement in demand for diamonds as a result of favourable global economic prospects.
Furthermore, the projected accommodative monetary conditions in the domestic economy, the anticipated expansion in government spending in the 2018/19 fiscal year and other activities promoted by government initiatives such as promotion of dam tourism, continued efforts to develop Information Communication and Technology through broadening network coverage, including by rolling it out to secondary schools, and continued implementation of measures to improve the ease of doing business in Botswana), as well as stability in water and electricity supply, are expected to support growth of the non-mining sectors. Regionally, South Africa GDP is projected to grow by 1.5 percent in 2018 and 1.7 percent in 2019, slightly higher than 1.3 percent in 2017.
The partnership between Debswana and Botswana Oil Limited (BOL) which was announced a fortnight ago will create under 100 direct jobs, and scores of job opportunities for citizens in the value chain activities.
In a major milestone, Debswana and BOL jointly announced that the fuel supply to Debswana, which was in the past serviced by foreign companies, will now be reserved for citizen companies. The total value of the project is P8 billion, spanning a period of five years.
“About 88 direct jobs will be created through the partnership. These include some jobs which will be transferred from the current supplier to the new partnership,” Matida Mmipi, Head of Stakeholder Relations at Botswana Oil, told BusinessPost.
“We believe this partnership will become a blueprint for other citizen initiatives, even in other sectors of the economy. Furthermore, this partnership has succeeded in unlocking opportunities that never existed for ordinary citizens who aspire to grow and do business with big companies like Debswana.”
Mmipi said through this partnership, BOL and Debswana intend to impact citizen owned companies in the fuel supply value chain that include transportation, supply, facilities maintenance, engineering, customs clearance, trucks stops and its support activities such as workshop / maintenance, tyre services, truck wash bays among others.
“The number of companies to be on-boarded will be determined by the economics at the time of engagement,” she said. BOL will play a facilitatory role of handholding and assisting emerging citizen-owned fuel supply and fuel transportation companies to supply Debswana’s Jwaneng and Orapa Letlhakane Damtshaa (OLDM) mines with diesel and petrol for their operations.
“BOL expects to increase citizen companies’ market share in the fuel supply and transportation industries, which have over the years been dominated by foreign-owned suppliers. Consequently, the agreement will also ensure security of supply for Debswana operations, which are a mainstay of the Botswana economy,” Mmipi said.
“Furthermore, BOL will, under this agreement, transfer skills to citizen suppliers and transporters during the contract period and ensure delivery of competent and skilled citizen suppliers and transport companies upon completion of the agreement.”
Mmipi said the capacitating by BOL is limited to providing citizen companies oil industry technical capability and capacity to deliver on the requirements of the contract, when asked on helping citizen companies to access funding.
“BOL’s mandate does not include financing citizen empowerment initiatives. Securing funding will remain the responsibility of the beneficiaries. This could be through government financing entities including CEDA or through commercial banks. Further to this, there are financial institutions that have already signed up to support the Debswana Citizen Economic Empowerment Programme (CEEP),” Mmipi indicated.
While BOL is established by government as company limited by guarantee, it will not benefit financially from the partnership with Debswana, as citizen empowerment in the petroleum value chain is core to BOL’s mandate.
“BOL does not pursue citizen facilitation for financial benefit, but rather we engage in citizen facilitation as a social aspect of our mandate. Citizen facilitation comes at a cost, but it is the right thing to do for the country to develop the oil and gas industry,” she said.
Mmipi said supplying fuel to Debswana comes with commercial benefits such as supply margins. These have traditionally been made outside the country when supply was done by multi-nationals for a period spanning over 50 years. With BOL anchoring supply for Debswana, this benefit will accrue locally, and BOL will be able to pay taxes and dividends to the shareholders in Botswana.
PwC Africa has presented the eighth edition of the VAT in Africa Guide – Africa re-emerging. This backdrop of renewal informs on the re-emergence of African economies and societies which have been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic.
In this edition, which has been compiled by PwC Africa’s indirect tax experts, covers a total of 41 African countries. It is geared towards sharing insight with our clients based on the constantly changing tax environments that can have a significant impact on business operations.
Within Africa, governments continue to focus on expanding the tax net by improving revenue collection through efficient compliance systems and procedures. PwC Africa has observed that revenue authorities also continue to take a keen interest in indirect taxes as part of revenue mobilisation initiatives.
Maturing VAT system and upskilling SARS
“In South Africa, VAT is becoming more relevant as a revenue source for the government,” says Matthew Besanko, PwC South Africa’s Indirect Tax Leader. “Strides have been made to upskill South African Revenue Service (SARS) staff and identify VAT revenue leakages, particularly in respect of foreign suppliers of electronic services to people and businesses in South Africa.”
Broadening the tax base and digital economy
In the past year, South Africa, Mozambique and Zimbabwe saw updates to their VAT legislation, or introduced specific legislation targeting electronically supplied services (ESS), which is in line with the global trend of attempting to tax the digital economy. “The expectation is that Botswana will also introduce VAT legislation in due course, while the National Treasury in South Africa has also made mention of revising the rules to account for further developments in the digital economy,” Besanko says.
South Africa’s National Treasury has also drafted legislation with the intention to introduce a reverse charge on gold, which is expected to come into effect later in 2022. While in Zimbabwe, revenue authorities have introduced a tax on the export of raw medicinal cannabis ranging between 10% and 20%, which came into effect on 1 January 2021.
ESG and carbon tax
Key strides have also been made within the Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) space. “ESG leadership, strategising and reporting is essential now for organisations that wish to flourish and remain relevant,” Kabochi says. He adds that companies need to consider how ESG and tax intersect, since tax is a significant value driver when businesses need to deliver on their ESG goals.
In South Africa, a carbon tax regime, which is being implemented in three phases, has been adopted. The second phase was scheduled to start in January 2023, however phase one was extended by three years until 31 December 2025.
Until then, taxpayers will enjoy substantial tax-free allowances which reduce their carbon tax liability. At the beginning of 2022, the South African government increased the carbon tax rate to R144 (about US$9), which is expected to increase annually to enable South Africa to uphold its COP26 commitments.
With effect from 1 January 2023, carbon tax payers in South Africa will also be required to submit carbon budgets and adhere to the provisions of the carbon budgeting system which will be governed by the Climate Change Bill. Where set carbon budgets are exceeded, the government plans to impose penalties. “At PwC, we are continuously focused on our renewed global strategy, ” The New Equation,” Kabochi says. “Through this strategy, a key focus area for PwC Africa is to support clients in adding value to their ESG ambitions and building trust through sustained outcomes.”
The New Equation is also an acknowledgement of the fundamental changes in the business environment in which PwC’s clients and other stakeholders operate. PwC continues to reinvent and adapt to these changes as a community of problem solvers, combining knowledge and human-led technology to deliver quality services and value.
Local and international economists have lowered their projections on Botswana’s economic growth for 2022 and 2023, saying the country is highly likely to fail to maintain high growth rate recorded in 2021 hence will not reach initial forecasts.
Economists this week lowered 2022 forecasts for Botswana’s economic growth rate, from the initial 5.3% to 4.8% and added that in 2023 growth could further decline to 4.0%. The lower projections come on the backdrop of an annual economic growth that recovered sharply in 2021 with figures showing that year-on-year real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth increased to 11.4%, up from a contraction of 8.7% in 2020.
Economists from the local research entity, E-consult, this week stated that the 2021 double digit growth that exceeded projections made at the time of the 2022 budget may be short lived due to other developments taking place in the global economy. E-consult Economist Sethunya Kegakgametse stated that the war in Ukraine has worsened supply problems in the global economy and added that before the war, macroeconomic indicators were seen as improving and returning to pre-COVID levels.
According to the economist the global economy was projected to improve in 2022 and 2023. Recent figures show that global growth projections have been revised downwards from the initial forecast of 4.9% in 2022 with the World Bank’s new estimate for global growth in 2022 at 3.2%.
The statistics also shows that International Monetary Fund revised their growth projections for 2022 and 2023 down by 0.8% and 0.2% respectively, falling to 3.6% for both years. “The outbreak of war has severely dampened the global recovery that was under way following the COVID-19 pandemic,” said the economist.
She stated that despite Botswana being geographically removed from the conflict, the country has not and will not be exempt from the disruptions in the global economy. “The disruptions to global supply chains resulting from the war will have a negative effect on both Botswana’s growth and trade activities.
The economic sanctions against diamonds from Russia will add uncertainty to the market which will have knock on effects to Botswana’s growth, exports, and government revenues,” said the economists who added that the disruptions are driving prices up and result with very high inflation in the local economy.
Kegakgametse projected that in an attempt to limit inflation Bank of Botswana will be forced to raise interest rate “Should the sharp increase in both global and local inflation persist, Bank of Botswana much like other central banks around the world will be forced to raise interest rates in a bid to control rising prices. This would mean an end to the expansionary monetary policy stance that had been adopted post COVID-19 to aid economic growth,” she said.
In the latest projections, the UK based economic research entity Fitch Solutions lowered 2022 real GDP growth forecast for Botswana from 5.3% to 4.8% “In 2023, we see economic growth rate decelerating to 4.0%,” said Fitch Solutions economists who also noted that the 2022 and 2023 economic growth projections may come out lower than the current forecasts, as it is possible that new vaccine-resistant virus variants may be identified, which could result in the re-implementation of restrictions. “In such circumstances, we cannot rule out that Botswana’s economy may post weaker growth than our baseline scenario currently assumes,” said the economists.
According to the projections, Fitch Solution stated that there is limited scope for Botswana government to increase diamond production and exports, following the economic sanctions imposed on Russian diamond mining companies operating in Botswana. The research entity added that De Beers is unlikely to scale up diamond output from Botswana in order to prop up diamond prices.