The abrupt and controversial liquidation of BCL two years ago has not only affected those who benefited directly from it—a lot who did dealings with the moribund copper-nickel ore smelter like Botswana Diamonds (BOD) which got in an indirect partnership with the mine are apparently frustrated by an unfinished business of an exploration venture.
The BCL liquidation remains a stumbling block on Botswana Stock Exchange and London Stock Exchange listed BOD because it stands on the company’s exploration prospects on lucrative Maibwe Joint Venture which comes with ten licenses. Maibwe is situated in the Gope area in the central region of Botswana.
The Maibwe Joint Venture is currently owned by BCL or BCL Investments which holds a lion’s share of 51 percent, Future Minerals holds 20 percent and BOD subsidiary Siseko has a stake of 29 percent. Siseko is 51 percent owned by BOD. BOD is worried that it cannot get hold of its exploration project sooner that it promised its investors because the company that owns a major stake at Maibwe, BCL Limited or BCL Investments has been liquidated subsequently putting any business that could be done by Maibwe on a freezer.
Initially BCL had wanted to sell its 51 stake in Maibwe Joint Venture following its liquidation in 2016. BOD shown huge interest to buy the shares and team up with its subsidiary Siseko to get a huge chunk from Maibwe but the talks were halted as the BCL liquidator Nigel Dixon-Warren decided to play hard ball in order to get a better deal according to him.
In an interview with BusinessPost, Dixon-Warren also put clarity on the misconception that BOD has direct shares on Maibwe saying, “I do not know of any agreement between BOD and BCL on Maibwe.” The international media and other news websites had suggested in their reports that BOD directly owns Maibwe and has prospects to drill it as its own venture, but Dixon-Warren has not seen a legal bond between Maibwe and BOD. He told this publication that he is going to start by dealing with other shareholders first like Siseko, the BOD subsidiary.
“I am very careful about our Maibwe shares. I am still assessing the value of the shares and I have engaged experts to help me review our Maibwe shares, then I can take a consideration and see when it is fit to sell the shares,” said Dixon-Warren. BOD is still adamant in getting BCL shares because it cannot do any drilling Maibwe according to BOD managing director John Campbell.
The BOD managing director told Mining Weekly last year that they are planning on buying out BCL because the project is currently in “suspended animation” due to high interest results recorded previously on Maibwe at the time the liquidated BCL was drilling the project. This year during a mining conference held in Botswana Campbell also concluded that, “we have put in an offer to the liquidator of BCL and we hope to get a response in the next few months.”
In a recent interview with BusinessPost Campbell also confirmed that BOD has no relationship with BCL or is a shareholder in the Maibwe Joint Venture. “BOD is a shareholder in Siseko, which is a shareholder in the Maibwe Joint Venture. I have been proposed as an alternative director to the Maibwe Jenture Venture by Siseko and a member of the technical committee. In my latter role, I have assisted the liquidator in drafting a prospectus on the Joint Venture which the liquidator is currently finalizing. BOD has no direct relationship with BCL or the liquidator aside from the roles I have already outlined,” said Campbell.
BOD DISCOVERS DIAMONDS ON THE RUINS OF ANGLO BOER WAR
BOD’s latest exploration update released this week says the company has recently found the potential of the Free State to host further commercial kimberlites. It further states that the discovery comes after extensive research which was done in various archives into the history of diamond mining in South Africa.
“This research found that in addition to the well documented iconic operations at Jagersfontein, Koffiefontein and Kimberley, a number of smaller diamond mines existed both to the east of Bloemfontein and extending west to Kimberley,” said the BOD website. What was more interesting about this latest discovery is that it was found around Frees State after a century old of lack of record keeping and documentation on diamonds following the Anglo Boer war of 1899-1902.
According to BOD, there was once a law that barred an exploration intention or information and documentation regarding any diamond discovery in the aftermath of the Anglo Boer war. BOD said this month their team of researchers took a field trip to the Free State and perused into the area which was affected by extensive document loss and destruction consequent to the Anglo Boer war of 1899-1902.
“In spite of this much is still available and there remains considerable anecdotal evidence from the time. It was clearly noted that the industry as a whole was active up until the early 1880's, but that "a wave of financial collapse and depression swept over South Africa…." such that …"even old established diggings like Jagersfontein, Dutoitspan and Bultfontein were partially abandoned and younger [smaller] mines were totally deserted",” said BOD when quoting the researcher’s report on the Free State project.
The BOD exploring specialist also found evidence that there were previous attempts to re-open these “smaller” mines in the early 1900's, but these were frustrated by bureaucratic intervention due to conflicting laws in the lead up to the accession by the Free State Colony into the Union of South Africa. According to BOD, the result was that permission to restart the mines was not granted, these mines have never been reopened, and their history lost with land ownership changes over time.
BOD accounts their latest exploration to their hi-tech ability of using aerial imagery and ground trothing to complete “the jigsaw” which has enabled the company to focus its attention on areas within its Koppiesfontein, Poortjie, Swartrandsdam and Tafelbergsdam properties where historic workings and abandoned equipment are clearly evident.
“Available archived diamond certificates in respect of limited exploration activities around Tafelsbergsdam issued in 1898 disclosed recovery of 111 carats of diamonds valued at approximate £93 each which is estimated by the Company to be in excess of US$300/ct in today’s money,” said BOD. The BOD believes it has done its homework on the research and exploration, with the help of high technology, it is ready for exploration.
BOD Chairman John Teeling, said: “The Free State story is a fascinating one. Starting from document archives from well over a hundred years ago where some of these kimberlites were diamond producers to modern exploration using whole rock geochemistry, kimberlite mineral chemistry through to detailed ground geophysics. The next step is clearly drilling to determine the kimberlites current commerciality. I look forward to providing further updates regarding the drilling programme in due course.”
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of Botswana decided to maintain the Bank Rate at 3.75 percent at a meeting held on October 21, 2021. Briefing members of the media moments after the meeting Bank of Botswana Governor Moses Pelaelo explained that Inflation decreased from 8.8 percent in August to 8.4 percent in September 2021, although remaining above the upper bound of the Bank’s medium-term objective range of 3 – 6 percent.
He said Inflation is projected to revert to within the objective range in the second quarter of 2022, mainly on account of the dissipating impact of the recent upward adjustment in value added tax (VAT) and administered prices from the inflation calculation; which altogether contributed 5.2 percentage points to the current level of inflation. Overall, risks to the inflation outlook are assessed to be skewed to the upside.
These risks include the potential increase in international commodity prices beyond current forecasts; persistence of supply and logistical constraints due to lags in production; possible maintenance of travel restrictions and lockdowns due to the COVID-19 pandemic; domestic risk factors relating to regular annual price adjustments; as well as second-round effects of the recent increases in administered prices and inflation expectations that could lead to generalised higher price adjustments.
Furthermore, aggressive action by governments (for example, the Economic Recovery and Transformation Plan (ERTP)) and major central banks to bolster aggregate demand, as well as the successful rollout of the COVID-19 vaccination programmes, could add pressure to inflation. These risks are, however, moderated by the possibility of weak domestic and global economic activity, with a likely further dampening effect on productivity due to periodic lockdowns and other forms of restrictions in response to the emergence of new COVID-19 variants.
A slow rollout of vaccines, resulting in the continuance of weak economic activity and the possible decline in international commodity prices could also result in lower inflation, as would capacity constraints in implementing the ERTP initiatives. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Botswana grew by 4.9 percent in the twelve months to June 2021, compared to a contraction of 5.1 percent in the corresponding period in 2020.
The increase in output is attributable to the expansion in production of both the mining and non-mining sectors, resulting from an improved performance of the economy from a low base in the corresponding period in the previous year. Mining output increased by 3 percent in the year to June 2021, because of a 3.2 percent increase in diamond mining output, compared to a contraction of 19.3 percent in 2020. Similarly, non-mining GDP grew by 5.4 percent in the twelve-month period ending June 2021, compared to a decrease of 0.7 percent in the corresponding period in 2020.
The increase in non-mining GDP was mainly due to expansion in output for construction, diamond traders, transport and storage, wholesale and retail and real estate. Projections by the Ministry of Finance and Economic Development and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) suggest a rebound in economic growth for Botswana in 2021. The Ministry projects a growth rate of 9.7 percent in 2021, moderating to a growth of 4.3 percent in 2022. On the other hand, the IMF forecasts the domestic economy to grow by 9.2 percent in 2021; and this is expected to moderate to a growth of 4.7 percent in 2022. The growth outcome will partly depend on success of the vaccine rollout.
According to the October 2021 World Economic Outlook (WEO), global output growth is forecast at 5.9 percent in 2021, 0.1 percentage point lower than in the July 2021 WEO update. The downward revision reflects downgrades for advanced economies mainly due to supply disruptions, while the growth forecast for low-income countries was lowered as the slow rollout of COVID-19 vaccines weigh down on economic recovery. Meanwhile, global output growth is anticipated to moderate to 4.9 percent in 2022, as some economies return to their pre-COVID-19 growth levels.
The South African Reserve Bank, for its part, projects that the South African GDP will grow by 5.3 percent in 2021, and slow to 1.7 percent in 2022. The MPC notes that the short-term adverse developments in the domestic economy occur against a growth-enhancing environment. These include accommodative monetary conditions, improvements in water and electricity supply, reforms to further improve the business environment and government interventions against COVID-19, including the vaccination rollout programme.
In addition, the successful implementation of ERTP should anchor the growth of exports and preservation of a sufficient buffer of foreign exchange reserves, which have recently fallen to an estimate of P47.9 billion (9.8 months of import cover) in September 2021. Overall, it is projected that the economy will operate below full capacity in the short to medium term and, therefore, not creating any demand-driven inflationary pressures, going forward.
The projected increase in inflation in the short term is primarily due to transitory supply-side factors that, except for second-round effects and entrenched expectations (for example, through price adjustments by businesses, contractors, property owners and wage negotiations), do not normally attract monetary policy response. In this context, the MPC decided to continue with the accommodative monetary policy stance and maintain the Bank Rate at 3.75 percent. Governor Moses Pelaelo noted that the Bank stands ready to respond appropriately as conditions warrant.
The Special Economic Zones Authority (SEZA) recently launched the Mayor’s forum. The Authority will engage with local governments to improve ease of doing business, boost investment, and fast track the development of Botswana’s Special Economic Zones (SEZs).
The Mayors Forum was established to recognise the vital role that local authorities play in infrastructure development; as they approve applications for planning, building and occupation permits. Local authorities also grant approvals for industrial licenses for manufacturing companies. SEZA Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Lonely Mogara explained that the Mayor’s Forum was conceptualised after the Authority identified local authorities as critical partners in achieving its mandate and improving the ease of doing business. SEZA intends to develop legal instructions for different Ministries to align relevant laws with the SEZ Act, which will enable the operationalisation of the SEZ incentives.
“Engaging with local government will bring about the much-needed transformation as our SEZs are located in municipalities. For us, a good working relationship with local authorities is the special ingredient required for the efficient facilitation of SEZ investors, which will lead to their competitiveness and ultimate growth,” Mogara stated.
The Mayors Forum will focus on the referral of investors for establishment in different localities, efficient facilitation of investors, infrastructure and property development, and joint monitoring and evaluation of the SEZ programme at the local level. SEZA believes that collaborating with local authorities will bring about much-needed transformation in the areas where SEZs are located and ultimately within the national economy. Against this background, the concept of hosting a Mayors Forum was birthed to identify and provide solutions to possible barriers inhibiting ease of doing business.
One of the key outcomes of the Mayors Forum is the free flow of information between SEZA and local authorities. Further, the two will work together to change the business environment and achieve efficiency and competitiveness within the SEZs. Francistown Mayor Godisang Rasesigo was elected as the founding Chairman of the Mayors Forum. The forum will also include the executive leadership of all city, town and district councils, among them Mayors, City or Council Chairpersons, Town Clerks and District Commissioners.
Mogara explained that initial efforts would engage the local government in areas that host SEZA’s eight SEZs: Gaborone, Lobatse, Selebi Phikwe, Palapye, Francistown, Pandamatenga and Tuli Block. Meanwhile, Mogara told WeekendPost that they are confident that a modest 150 000 jobs could be unleashed in the next two to five years through a partnership with other government entities. He is adamant that the jobs will come from all the nine designated economic zones.
This publication gathers that the Authority is currently sitting on about P30 billion worth of investment. The investment, it is suggested, could be said to be locked up in government bureaucracy, awaiting the proper signatures for projects to take off. Mogara informed this publication that the Authority onboard investors who are bringing P200 million and above. He pointed out that more are injecting P1 billion investments compared to the lower stratum of their drive.
SEZA’s mandate hinges on the nine Special Economic Zones – being Gaborone (SSKIA), whose focus is of Mixed-use (Diamond Beneficiation, Aviation); Gaborone (Fairgrounds) for Financial services, professional services and corporate HQ village; Lobatse for Beef, leather & biogas park; Pandamatenga designated for Agriculture (cereal production); Selibe Phikwe area which is also of a Mixed-Use (Base metal beneficiation & value addition), Tuli Block Integrated coal value addition, dry port logistics centre, coal power generation and export; Francistown is set aside for International Multimodal logistics hub/ Mixed Use (Mining, logistics and downstream value-adding hub); whilst Palapye is for Horticulture.
The knowledge economy buzz speaks to SEZA’s agenda, according to Mogara. The CEO is determined to ensure that SEZA gets the buy-in from the government, parastatals and the private sector to deliver Botswana to a high economic status. “This will ensure more jobs, less poverty, more investment, and indeed wealth for Batswana,” quipped the enthusiastic Mogara. SEZA was established through the SEZ Act of 2015 and mandated with establishing, developing and managing the country’s SEZs. The Authority was tasked with creating a conducive domestic and foreign direct investment, diversifying the economy and increasing exports to facilitate employment creation.
De Beers rough diamond production for the third quarter of 2021 increased by 28% to 9.2 million carats, reflecting planned higher Production to meet more robust demand for rough diamonds. In Botswana, Production increased by 33% to 6.4 million carats, primarily driven by the planned treatment of higher-grade ore at Jwaneng, partly offset by lower Production at Orapa due to the scheduled closure of Plant 1.
Namibia’s Production increased by 65% to 0.4 million carats, reflecting the marine fleet’s suspension during Q3 2020 as part of the response to lower demand at that time. South Africa production increased by 34% to 1.6 million carats due to the planned treatment of higher grade ore from the final cut of the Venetia open pit and an improvement in plant performance. Production in Canada decreased by 13% to 0.8 million carats due to lower grade ore being processed.
Demand for rough diamonds continued to be robust, with positive midstream sentiment reflecting strong demand for polished diamond jewellery, particularly in the key markets of the US and China. Rough diamond sales totalled 7.8 million carats (7.0 million carats on a consolidated basis) from two Sights, compared with 6.6 million carats (6.5 million carats on a consolidated basis) from three Sights in Q3 2020 and 7.3 million carats (6.5 million carats on consolidated basis) from two Sights in Q2 2021.
De Beers tightened Production guidance to 32 million carats (previously 32-33 million carats) due to continuing operational challenges, subject to the extent of any further Covid-19 related disruptions. Commenting on the production figures, Mark Cutifani, Chief Executive of De Beers parent company Anglo American, said: “Production is up 2%(1) compared to Q3 of last year, with our operating levels generally maintained at approximately 95%(2) of normal capacity.
The increase in Production is led by planned higher rough diamond production at De Beers, increased output from our Minas-Rio iron ore operation in Brazil, reflecting the planned pipeline maintenance in Q3 2020, and improved plant performance at our Kumba iron ore operations in South Africa. “We are broadly on track to deliver our full-year production guidance across all products while taking the opportunity to tighten up the guidance for diamonds, copper, and iron ore within our current range as we approach the end of the year.
“Our copper operations in Chile continue to work hard on mitigating the risk of water availability due to the challenges presented by the longest drought on record for the region, including sourcing water that is not suitable for use elsewhere and further increasing water recycling.” On Wednesday, De Beers announced the value of rough diamond sales (Global Sightholder Sales and Auctions) for the eighth sales cycle of 2021. The company raked in US$ 490 million for the cycle, a slight improvement when compared to US$467 million recorded in 2020 cycle 8.
Owing to the restrictions on the movement of people and products in various jurisdictions around the globe, De Beers Group has continued to implement a more flexible approach to rough diamond sales during the eighth sales cycle of 2021, with the Sight event extended beyond its normal week-long duration. As a result, the provisional rough diamond sales figure quoted for Cycle 8 represents the expected sales value from 4 October to 19 October. It remains subject to adjustment based on final completed sales.
Commenting on the cycle 8 sales De Beers Group Chief Executive Officer Bruce Cleaver said that: “As the diamond sector prepares for the key holiday season and US consumer demand for diamond jewellery continues to perform strongly, we saw further robust demand for rough diamonds in the eighth sales cycle of the year ahead of the Diwali holiday when demand for rough diamonds is likely to be affected by the closure of polishing factories in India.”