Realising a ‘prosperity for all’ goal by 2036 could be another wild-goose chase for opulence like Vision 2016 if the latest publication by the World Bank is anything to go by.
The World Bank’s biennial “Poverty and Shared Prosperity Report; Piecing Together the Poverty Puzzle” has forecasted that by 2030 Sub-Sahara Africa including Botswana will still be struggling to wipe out poverty-this is six years before Botswana’s Vision of 2036 where this country is set to achieve the “Prosperity for All” status. According to economists, social commentators and politicians, Botswana failed to achieve its previous goal of Vision 2016-the World Bank paints a gloomy picture for the Vision 2036 goal.
World Bank indicates that by 2030, the world is expected to have wiped out extreme poverty except for Sub-Saharan Africa—where over 25 percent of the population will be living on less than $1.90 a day. Despite forecasting that extreme poverty would still be in double digits in Sub-Saharan Africa by 2030, the forecasts indicate that the world would need to grow at an unusual strong pace in order to meet the 3 percent target.
The World Bank also advises that the target would be met if all countries grow at an average annual rate of 6 percent and the income of the bottom 40 grows 2 percentage points faster than the average. Alternatively, the landmark could be reached if all countries grow at an average pace of 8 percent according to the World Bank.
The World Bank Group has set two goals for the world to achieve by 2030: To end extreme poverty by decreasing the percentage of people living on less than $1.90 a day to no more than 3 percent and to remote shared prosperity by fostering the income growth of the bottom 40 percent for every country. These goals coincides with Botswana’s Vision 2036 where Botswana is expected to achieve a high income economy and where they will be ‘prosperity for all.’
When adding his comment on the “Piecing Together the Poverty Puzzle,” the World Bank Group President Jim Yong Kim said: “Poverty is on the rise in several countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, as well as in fragile and conflict-affected states. In many countries, the bottom 40 percent of the population is getting left behind; in some countries, the living standard of the poorest 40 percent is actually declining. To reach our goal of bringing extreme poverty below 3 percent by 2030, the world’s poorest countries must grow at a rate that far surpasses their historical experience.
There is no room for complacency. We must intensify the effort to promote economic growth in the lagging countries and ensure that the poorest 40 percent of the population benefits more from economic progress.” A startling revelation from the latest World Bank publication is that 3.4 billion people still struggles to meet basic needs-living on less than $5.50 a day. The World Bank has concluded that nearly half the population lives on less than $5.50 a day.
According to the World Bank, living on less than $3.20 per day reflects poverty lines in lower-middle-income countries, while $5.50 a day reflects standards in upper-middle-income countries. The World Bank has a commitment to achieve the goal of ending extreme poverty, defined as living on less than $1.90 a day, by 2030. “Over 1.9 billion people, or 26.2 percent of the world’s population, were living on less than $3.20 per day in 2015. Close to 46 percent of the world’s population was living on less than $5.50 a day,” the World Bank said.
According to the 2015 Botswana Poverty Assessment report by World Bank, Batswana are living in extreme poverty and nearly half of them are children. Most of them remain poor or at risk for falling back into poverty, according to the World Bank report. On a high note, the 2015 Botswana Poverty Assessment also found that poverty declined from 30.6% to 19.4% between 2002-2010, particularly in rural areas, due to increased labour and agriculture-related incomes and more opportunities for the poor. This resulted in 180,000 people being lifted from poverty, 87 percent of which live in rural areas, the report says.
Other research from the World Economic Forum shows that Botswana is among the most unequal countries in the world, contributing to scepticism on attaining its Vision. In this year’s Global Competitiveness Report Botswana scored 60.5 in Income Gini. The Gini index of 0 represents perfect equality, while an index of 100 implies perfect inequality. Currently Botswana is the fourth most unequal in the world after Haiti, Namibia and South Africa.
According to the World Bank, Botswana and other Sub-Saharan countries Africa now account for most of the world’s poor, and unlike most of the rest of the world the total number of poor there is increasing. The World Bank says this is due to conflict and weak institutions, and a lack of success in channelling growth into poverty reduction. The World Bank further states that extreme poverty is increasingly becoming a Sub-Saharan African problem.
African countries have struggled partly because of their high reliance on extractive industries that have weaker ties to the incomes of the poor, the prevalence of conflict, and their vulnerability to natural disasters such as droughts, according to World Bank. The 2016 Macro poverty outlook for Botswana by the World Bank highlighted this country’s risks and challenges sees Botswana as heavily dependent on commodity exports and public sector activity and will remain exposed to external shocks.
This country is highly reliant on extractive industries, especially diamond mining. “Therefore, a key risk facing the economic outlook arises from potentially slower than expected recovery of global demand for commodities including diamonds. For example, a slowdown in major economies, would further constrain diamond and other commodity production, with spill over effects across government revenues and exports. In the medium-term, structural reforms remain critical for managing volatility and sustainability risks such as reforms in the water and energy sectors, as well as policies that address labour market distortions,” said the World Bank report on Botswana.
Sub-Saharan countries like Botswana are also said to be grappled by weak institutions according to the World Bank. In Botswana’s case it should be weak parastatals or state owned companies. The 2018 Competitiveness Report released last week saw Botswana placed at 104 out of 140 countries in the category of ‘Reliability of Water Supply.’
This means Water Utilities Corporation is failing as a nation’s water supply. The utility also bears the mandate of providing safe water but the same Global Competitiveness Report finds that Botswana is susceptible to production of unsafe water, putting it on a worst rate of 102 on the ‘Exposure to unsafe drinking water’ mini index.
In this mini index, Botswana is better than 38 countries when it comes to production of safe water. Another weak institution which could have caught the eye of the World Bank is the Botswana Power Corporation which is mostly the reason for this country scoring number 117 out of 140 countries in the mini-index of Electrification Rate according to the recent Global Competitiveness Report. The World Bank provides analysis and advice for developing countries like Botswana. It is a source of financial and technical assistance to developing countries around the world in order to work on poverty eradication.
Botswana Police Service (BPS) has indicated concern about the ongoing trend where the general public falls victim to criminals purporting to be police officers.
According to BPS Assistant Commissioner, Dipheko Motube, the criminals target individuals at shopping malls and Automated Teller Machines (ATMs) where upon approaching the unsuspecting individual the criminals would pretend to have picked a substantial amount of money and they would make a proposal to the victims that the money is counted and shared in an isolated place.
“On the way, as they stop at the isolated place, they would start to count and sharing of the money, a criminal syndicate claiming to be Criminal Investigation Department (CID) officer investigating a case of stolen money will approach them,” said Motube in a statement.
The Commissioner indicated that the fake police officers would instruct the victims to hand over all the cash they have in their possession, including bank cards and Personal Identification Number (PIN), the perpetrators would then proceed to withdraw money from the victim’s bank account.
Motube also revealed that they are also investigating a case in which a 69 year old Motswana woman from Molepolole- who is a victim of the scam- lost over P62 000 last week Friday to the said perpetrators.
“The Criminal syndicate introduced themselves as CID officers investigating a case of robbery where a man accompanying the woman was the suspect.’’
They subsequently went to the woman’s place and took cash amounting to over P12 000 and further swindled amount of P50 000 from the woman’s bank account under the pretext of the further investigations.
In addition, Motube said they are currently investigating the matter and therefore warned the public to be vigilant of such characters and further reminds the public that no police officer would ask for bank cards and PINs during the investigations.
Botswana Congress Party (BCP) leadership walked out of Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC) National Executive Committee (NEC) meeting this week on account of being targeted by other cooperating partners.
UDC meet for the first time since 2020 after previous futile attempts, but the meeting turned into a circus after other members of the executive pushed for BCP to explain its role in media statements that disparate either UDC and/or contracting parties.
The Director General of the Directorate on Corruption and Economic Crimes (DCEC), Tymon Katlholo’s spirited fight against the contentious transfers of his management team has forced the Office of the President to rescind the controversial decision. However, some insiders suggest that the reversal of the transfers may have left some interested parties with bruised egos and nursing red wounds.
The transfers were seen by observers as a badly calculated move to emasculate the DCEC which is seen as defiant against certain objectionable objectives by certain law enforcement agencies – who are proven decisionists with very little regard for the law and principle.