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X-ray view into Matambo’s briefcase

In two days’ time, the Minister of Finance and Economic Development Kenneth Matambo will open his iconic briefcase and the nation expects it to be pregnant with hope as it is always the case with any Budget Speech of a government especially on its election year.

However the 2019/20 Budget was planned at a menacing projected budget deficit of P5 billion, increasing fiscal policy uncertainties which experts see as a gloomy picture for Botswana. This is mainly due to the fact that President Mokgweetsi Masisi’s first impression will be judged by the speech this Monday. The 2019 Budget Strategy Paper which was unveiled at last year’s Budget Pitso projected that total revenues are forecast to be lower than projected total expenditures, resulting in a budget deficit of P5.11 billion, or 2.4 percent of GDP.

“With total revenue and grants estimated at P61.28 billion, which is lower than the projected total expenditure of P66.40 billion, the budget deficit is estimated at P5.11 billion, or 2.4 percent of GDP,” said the 2019 Budget Strategy Paper giving a gloomy hope to the coming Budget Speech. According to the 2019 Budget Strategy Paper, budget deficits are forecast in the medium-term, mainly as a result of lower revenue collections, resulting from the expected sluggish mineral revenue receipts and volatility of the Customs and Excise revenue.

On the other hand, emerging expenditure pressures, from both development and recurrent expenditure sides, should continue to be managed in order to ensure fiscal sustainability, the Paper further states. When responding to the perpetual incurrence of budget deficit in his maiden State of The Nation Address which was announced last two months, President Masisi decried of P1.98 billion budget deficit recorded in the 2017/18 year which was followed by an expected “moderate” budget deficit for the 2018/19 financial year.

The upcoming Budget Speech will come at the right time for Botswana’s current National Development Plan 11 (NDP 11, 2017-2023) as in his last year’s State Of The Nation Address Masisi revealed that NDP 11 is due for its Mid-Term Review in the next financial year( meaning the 2019/20) which will be launched by Monday’s budget speech). This is where Masisi promised that “it is during this process that most of our transformative adjustments will be effected.”

Matambo’s pre-budget document, the Budget Strategic Paper 2019 states: “The strategic thrust for the next financial year 2019/2020 continues to be centred around the broad national priorities identified in NDP 11, which are: Developing Diversified Sources of Economic Growth; Human Capital Development; Social Development; Sustainable Use of Natural Resources, Good Governance and Strengthening of National Security, as well as monitoring and evaluation.”

When commenting on government’s continual battle against fiscal deficits, Masisi promised that despite the constrained fiscal outlook his government is committed to the principle of a balanced budget in the medium term, as outlined in the current National Development Plan (NDP11). The public’s high expectation on this year’s Budget Speech to be more promising as it is elections year coincides with the rating agency Moody’s view which expects pressure on spending by government in this important time of Botswana’s history.

Recent Moody’s view sees uncertainty and delay in fiscal consolidation efforts towards the 2019 General Elections and the rating agency highly expects Matambo’s Monday speech to vindicate that.  “Ahead of elections in Botswana, the authorities now envisage a more gradual pace of fiscal consolidation…,” said Moody’s. A public voice echoed by workers who now regard themselves as the “working poor” has been reverberating for years and this year it is even louder towards the national polls hence an expected spending pressure by government.

Unionist Tobokani Rari did not mince words when making his promises heard by this publication. He said since 2011 he does not remember government attempting to cushion workers who have continued to struggle against inflation or cost living since the 2009 global recession.
With regards to cushioning of workers from inflation, Rari said, the government has been accumulating arrears since 2011 as it has been increasing salaries with small percentages which would not cushion against inflation; only around 3 percent and 4 percent.

“This was not enough as the actual inflation was never met halfway by reasonably increasing prices. The increment of lesser percentages did not reflect compensation of inflation and rather it fell short by almost 16 percent,” said Rari who is against these lesser salary increments which would never compensate for erosion of salaries. Rari expects Masisi’s administration to bring back lost value of workers salary and he also believes this would enhance productivity.

He said Masisi should prioritize in human resource as it is a vital remedy for a healthy economy. It appears the NDP 11 reiterates Rari’s comments that government has been doing less in terms of increasing productivity which is vital for economic health. “With the positive relationship between total factor productivity and economic growth in Botswana, the failure to effectively address the issue of low productivity undermines the country’s ability to operate at its full potential,” says the NDP 11 which was released in 2016.

The NDP 11 further says the country’s ambition of being an upper income country may be difficult to realise in the foreseeable future. Any significant improvements in productivity in both the public and private sectors will have salutary effects on the economic growth and overall health of the economy, according to NDP 11.Meanwhile a Malaysian private consultancy firm appointed by government, Performance Management and Delivery Unit (PEMANDU), has secretively proposed that government increase salaries by 20 percent in a pyramid manner.

This means that the additional cost to the government will be P1.23 billion per annum and this is expected to be in Matambo’s briefcase. While economist Moatlhodi Sebabole is talking against irresponsible spending by the treasury in any occasion or important season like the time of elections, the expert encourages cautious spending by government and believes the current projected deficit was in no way over the bar or overboard.

He gave a scenario of 2009 when Botswana was waking up from global recession with a heavy fiscal deficit of over P9 billion-a time when the economy was still smaller than it is today. According to Sebabole, a projected deficit of P5, 11 billion should not scare as it is not that bad as it seems and will be recovered. Sebabole also welcomes the treasury’s current projected deficit saying it is a counter-cyclical fiscal policy.

He said in this kind of fiscal policy government has spent its revenues on mining projects like the development of Cut 9 in Jwaneng and the Cut 3 at Orapa projects which is expected to bring back returns that will cushion the impending fiscal deficits.  Sebabole believes that the fiscal deficits may shrink even to P1.6 billion, even below the expected estimates. The economist believes fiscal consolidation by government should not in any way astray from the NDP 11 route and achievement of Vision 2036 goals or pillars.

 “In my view I believe in cautious fiscal spending. In every hot national event fiscal spending pressures is expected to cater for management of elections and when the fiscal policy is under pressure to deliver in an election year,” said Sebabole. Sebabole believes government has always been spending within the fiscal spending threshold which also coincides with the fiscal rule. He explained that the fiscal rule has always been to spend not above 4 percent of the GDP and this should be maintained even at a time of elections.

Permanent Secretary to the President and Secretary to the Cabinet Carter Morupisi told this publication that government will not be swayed by pressure of elections year and the budgetary process have not changed like in the past years. He echoed Masisi and Matambo’s last year comments that the upcoming Budget Speech will be mirroring priorities of NDP 11. “That will be the principal of good governance. Government should remain committed to prioritizing ongoing projects first before looking and new commitment,” he said.

Morupisi explained that a budget is prepared by looking at projected revenues and spending which are mostly planned on assumptions. He highlighted that after looking at ongoing projects compulsory payments will be made as in salaries of workers and government debts.
Priorities versus Promises. According to the 2019 Budget Strategy Paper one of the Fiscal Policy Objectives is to; manage the fiscal risks in a prudent manner and to ensure fiscal consolidation through expenditure prioritization that will result in quality spending.

Government’s main priority is to keep it’s spending below 4 percent of the GDP in the face of a projected fiscal deficit of P5. 11 billion which is the 2.4 percent of the GDP, according to Morupisi.  Also the PSP says top on Matambo’s list will be closing government’s ongoing projects and paying debts and liabilities as well as pay workers’ salaries.Matambo at the Budget Pitso said the projected P5.11 billion budget deficit will be financed through a combination of borrowing, both domestically and externally, and drawing down on government cash balances.

 “Government remains committed to pursuing fiscal sustainability and thus, additional measures to raise domestic revenues or trim the planned expenditure during the implementation of the Plan will be considered, if necessary, to restore the fiscal balance to sustainable levels,” says this year’s budget paper. As a self-proclaimed ‘Jobs President’, Masisi has a bigger headache before him, to increase employment while making sure that the jobs he created are decent. In his maiden SONA Masisi highlighted poverty and unemployment “as a matter of urgency.”

Masisi’s administration lives with the promise of increasing jobs. This is why Masisi further announced that his administration has come up with the National Employment Policy (NEP) to address the unemployment problem facing the country and live to his title of ‘Jobs President’.
Another promise by Masisi is to increase workers’ salaries or improve their living conditions. This is why the same NEP’s other goal is “to assist the country to achieve productive, gainful and decent employment for all, to contribute to the reduction of income inequality and as well as to support Government’s poverty eradication efforts.

“It is seen that the NEP in this aspect supports the NDP 11 which states that one of the problems facing the country is the decline in total factor productivity, especially labour productivity. NDP 11 complained that, “growth in labour productivity in the country, as measured by value added per person employed, has been declining over the past two decades.” The NEP gets technical and financial support from World Bank. The Draft National Employment Policy for Botswana is expected to be delivered by March 2019, a month after the Budget Speech.

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Debswana-Botswana Oil P8 billion fuel partnership to create 100 jobs

18th May 2022
Head-of-Stakeholder-Relations

The partnership between Debswana and Botswana Oil Limited (BOL) which was announced a fortnight ago will create under 100 direct jobs, and scores of job opportunities for citizens in the value chain activities.

In a major milestone, Debswana and BOL jointly announced that the fuel supply to Debswana, which was in the past serviced by foreign companies, will now be reserved for citizen companies. The total value of the project is P8 billion, spanning a period of five years.

“About 88 direct jobs will be created through the partnership. These include some jobs which will be transferred from the current supplier to the new partnership,” Matida Mmipi, Head of Stakeholder Relations at Botswana Oil, told BusinessPost.

“We believe this partnership will become a blueprint for other citizen initiatives, even in other sectors of the economy. Furthermore, this partnership has succeeded in unlocking opportunities that never existed for ordinary citizens who aspire to grow and do business with big companies like Debswana.”

Mmipi said through this partnership, BOL and Debswana intend to impact citizen owned companies in the fuel supply value chain that include transportation, supply, facilities maintenance, engineering, customs clearance, trucks stops and its support activities such as workshop / maintenance, tyre services, truck wash bays among others.

“The number of companies to be on-boarded will be determined by the economics at the time of engagement,” she said. BOL will play a facilitatory role of handholding and assisting emerging citizen-owned fuel supply and fuel transportation companies to supply Debswana’s Jwaneng and Orapa Letlhakane Damtshaa (OLDM) mines with diesel and petrol for their operations.

“BOL expects to increase citizen companies’ market share in the fuel supply and transportation industries, which have over the years been dominated by foreign-owned suppliers. Consequently, the agreement will also ensure security of supply for Debswana operations, which are a mainstay of the Botswana economy,” Mmipi said.

“Furthermore, BOL will, under this agreement, transfer skills to citizen suppliers and transporters during the contract period and ensure delivery of competent and skilled citizen suppliers and transport companies upon completion of the agreement.”

Mmipi said the capacitating by BOL is limited to providing citizen companies oil industry technical capability and capacity to deliver on the requirements of the contract, when asked on helping citizen companies to access funding.

“BOL’s mandate does not include financing citizen empowerment initiatives. Securing funding will remain the responsibility of the beneficiaries. This could be through government financing entities including CEDA or through commercial banks. Further to this, there are financial institutions that have already signed up to support the Debswana Citizen Economic Empowerment Programme (CEEP),” Mmipi indicated.

While BOL is established by government as company limited by guarantee, it will not benefit financially from the partnership with Debswana, as citizen empowerment in the petroleum value chain is core to BOL’s mandate.

“BOL does not pursue citizen facilitation for financial benefit, but rather we engage in citizen facilitation as a social aspect of our mandate. Citizen facilitation comes at a cost, but it is the right thing to do for the country to develop the oil and gas industry,” she said.

Mmipi said supplying fuel to Debswana comes with commercial benefits such as supply margins. These have traditionally been made outside the country when supply was done by multi-nationals for a period spanning over 50 years. With BOL anchoring supply for Debswana, this benefit will accrue locally, and BOL will be able to pay taxes and dividends to the shareholders in Botswana.

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VAT in Africa Guide 2022 – Africa re-emerging

18th May 2022

PwC Africa has presented the eighth edition of the VAT in Africa Guide – Africa re-emerging. This backdrop of renewal informs on the re-emergence of African economies and societies which have been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic.

In this edition, which has been compiled by PwC Africa’s indirect tax experts, covers a total of 41 African countries. It is geared towards sharing insight with our clients based on the constantly changing tax environments that can have a significant impact on business operations.

Within Africa, governments continue to focus on expanding the tax net by improving revenue collection through efficient compliance systems and procedures. PwC Africa has observed that revenue authorities also continue to take a keen interest in indirect taxes as part of revenue mobilisation initiatives.

Maturing VAT system and upskilling SARS 

“In South Africa, VAT is becoming more relevant as a revenue source for the government,” says Matthew Besanko, PwC South Africa’s Indirect Tax Leader. “Strides have been made to upskill South African Revenue Service (SARS) staff and identify VAT revenue leakages, particularly in respect of foreign suppliers of electronic services to people and businesses in South Africa.”

Broadening the tax base and digital economy

In the past year, South Africa, Mozambique and Zimbabwe saw updates to their VAT legislation, or introduced specific legislation targeting electronically supplied services (ESS), which is in line with the global trend of attempting to tax the digital economy. “The expectation is that Botswana will also introduce VAT legislation in due course, while the National Treasury in South Africa has also made mention of revising the rules to account for further developments in the digital economy,” Besanko says.

South Africa’s National Treasury has also drafted legislation with the intention to introduce a reverse charge on gold, which is expected to come into effect later in 2022. While in Zimbabwe, revenue authorities have introduced a tax on the export of raw medicinal cannabis ranging between 10% and 20%, which came into effect on 1 January 2021.

ESG and carbon tax 

Key strides have also been made within the Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) space. “ESG leadership, strategising and reporting is essential now for organisations that wish to flourish and remain relevant,” Kabochi says. He adds that companies need to consider how ESG and tax intersect, since tax is a significant value driver when businesses need to deliver on their ESG goals.

In South Africa, a carbon tax regime, which is being implemented in three phases, has been adopted. The second phase was scheduled to start in January 2023, however phase one was extended by three years until 31 December 2025.

Until then, taxpayers will enjoy substantial tax-free allowances which reduce their carbon tax liability. At the beginning of 2022, the South African government increased the carbon tax rate to R144 (about US$9), which is expected to increase annually to enable South Africa to uphold its COP26 commitments.

With effect from 1 January 2023, carbon tax payers in South Africa will also be required to submit carbon budgets and adhere to the provisions of the carbon budgeting system which will be governed by the Climate Change Bill. Where set carbon budgets are exceeded, the government plans to impose penalties. “At PwC, we are continuously focused on our renewed global strategy, ” The New Equation,” Kabochi says. “Through this strategy, a key focus area for PwC Africa is to support clients in adding value to their ESG ambitions and building trust through sustained outcomes.”

The New Equation is also an acknowledgement of the fundamental changes in the business environment in which PwC’s clients and other stakeholders operate. PwC continues to reinvent and adapt to these changes as a community of problem solvers, combining knowledge and human-led technology to deliver quality services and value.

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Economists project lower economic growth for Botswana

18th May 2022
CBD

Local and international economists have lowered their projections on Botswana’s economic growth for 2022 and 2023, saying the country is highly likely to fail to maintain high growth rate recorded in 2021 hence will not reach initial forecasts.

Economists this week lowered 2022 forecasts for Botswana’s economic growth rate, from the initial 5.3% to 4.8% and added that in 2023 growth could further decline to 4.0%. The lower projections come on the backdrop of an annual economic growth that recovered sharply in 2021 with figures showing that year-on-year real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth increased to 11.4%, up from a contraction of 8.7% in 2020.

Economists from the local research entity, E-consult, this week stated that the 2021 double digit growth that exceeded projections made at the time of the 2022 budget may be short lived due to other developments taking place in the global economy. E-consult Economist Sethunya Kegakgametse stated that the war in Ukraine has worsened supply problems in the global economy and added that before the war, macroeconomic indicators were seen as improving and returning to pre-COVID levels.

According to the economist the global economy was projected to improve in 2022 and 2023. Recent figures show that global growth projections have been revised downwards from the initial forecast of 4.9% in 2022 with the World Bank’s new estimate for global growth in 2022 at 3.2%.

The statistics also shows that International Monetary Fund revised their growth projections for 2022 and 2023 down by 0.8% and 0.2% respectively, falling to 3.6% for both years. “The outbreak of war has severely dampened the global recovery that was under way following the COVID-19 pandemic,” said the economist.

She stated that despite Botswana being geographically removed from the conflict, the country has not and will not be exempt from the disruptions in the global economy. “The disruptions to global supply chains resulting from the war will have a negative effect on both Botswana’s growth and trade activities.

The economic sanctions against diamonds from Russia will add uncertainty to the market which will have knock on effects to Botswana’s growth, exports, and government revenues,” said the economists who added that the disruptions are driving prices up and result with very high inflation in the local economy.

Kegakgametse projected that in an attempt to limit inflation Bank of Botswana will be forced to raise interest rate “Should the sharp increase in both global and local inflation persist, Bank of Botswana much like other central banks around the world will be forced to raise interest rates in a bid to control rising prices. This would mean an end to the expansionary monetary policy stance that had been adopted post COVID-19 to aid economic growth,” she said.

In the latest projections, the UK based economic research entity Fitch Solutions lowered 2022 real GDP growth forecast for Botswana from 5.3% to 4.8% “In 2023, we see economic growth rate decelerating to 4.0%,” said Fitch Solutions economists who also noted that the 2022 and 2023 economic growth projections may come out lower than the current forecasts, as it is possible that new vaccine-resistant virus variants may be identified, which could result in the re-implementation of restrictions. “In such circumstances, we cannot rule out that Botswana’s economy may post weaker growth than our baseline scenario currently assumes,” said the economists.

According to the projections, Fitch Solution stated that there is limited scope for Botswana government to increase diamond production and exports, following the economic sanctions imposed on Russian diamond mining companies operating in Botswana. The research entity added that De Beers is unlikely to scale up diamond output from Botswana in order to prop up diamond prices.

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