Failure by Choppies Enterprise Limited a fast expanding pan-African retail giant to submit and publish audited financial results on time has crashed the Botswana Stock Exchange (BSE) Domestic Company Index (DCI) figures, resulting in 11.4 percent decline for the year 2018.
On the 28th September 2018; Choppies lost 76.3 percent of its value when the share price plummeted from P1.69 to P0.40 in a single day. On that day, its market capitalisation slumped from P2.2 Billion to P521.5 Million. The DCI is indicia that shows aggregate changes in market value on the basis of share prices. For the year 2018 DCI declined by 11.4 percent compared to a decline of 5.8 percent in 2017.
Eight companies compared to 12 in 2017 registered positive price changes while 14 compared to 11 in the prior year registered negative price movements and four compared to 1 in 2017 closed the year with share prices back to their 2017 levels. A market status report for the period January –December 31st 2018 released by BSE this week reiterates that the impact of Choppies Enterprise Limited, arising from its failure to submit audited financials on time, on the decline in the total domestic market capitalisation and subsequently the DCI cannot be ignored.
“Due to this, Choppies contributed 41.2 percent to the decline in the DCI. In other words Choppies contributed negative 4.7 percentage points to the negative 11.4 percent decline in the DCI in 2018,” reads the report. Equity markets figures for the year 2018 depicts turnover levels drop of 25 percent when compared to that of 2017. The Exchange attributes this experience mainly to three events that occurred in the year and also in the prior year.
These are the introduction of the minimum brokerage commission of 60 basis points (0.60 percent) in April 2016, the reallocation of investment mandates in 2018 by some of the largest pension funds in the country following termination of investment management contracts at two of the largest local asset managers and lastly the decline in share prices.
“Given the dominance of institutional investors both local and international in our market, the increase in transaction costs was definitely a sensitive issue particularly coinciding with a slowdown in corporate earnings as it effectively eroded their returns. Perhaps the suspension of Choppies could be an additional factor, given its liquidity in the market,” states the report. Prior to its suspension from trading Choppies was the 4th most traded company on the BSE.
A further assessment of equity market Statistics indicates that majority of the listed companies recorded reduced earnings resulting in share price declines, but to the delight of the investors they maintained attractive dividend payouts closing the year at total dividend yield of 5.5 percent versus 5.1 percent in 2017.
BSE registers record high tradability and liquidity during 2018
On a positive note BSE closed the year 2018 on record high overall tradability and liquidity of listed instruments. A total turnover of P4.4 billion was recorded in 2018 compared to P3.2 billion in 2017. This information is also contained in the BSE market status report. The stock exchange discharged impressive performance on the capital market by raising a total of P3.2 billion locally in the bond market compared to P2.3 billion in 2017, mirroring an improvement of 39.1percent.
On the equity market, P296.8 million was raised as BancABC was the only company that undertook a public offer in 2018 compared to P575 million raised through public offers in 2017. Seed Co listed by introduction. For the Bond Market BSE trades it’s Index Series (BBIS) under a series of four bond indices being Composite Bond Index (BBI), Government Bond Index (GovI), Corporate Bond Index (CorpI) and Composite Fixed Rate Bond Index (BBIFixed).
In 2018, the BSE Bond Index Series (BBIS) appreciated by 3.2 percent whereas the GovI and CorpI registered returns of 3.5 percent and 3.3 percent respectively. The BBIFixed returned 2.6 percent since its introduction in April 2018. Inflation averaged 3.2% in 2018; meaning that listed bonds provided purchasing power protection, save for the fixed rate bonds. 10 Inflation in the year predominantly remained within the objective range of 3 percent-6 percent whereas interest rates were held constant throughout the year.
The value of bonds traded increased over four times from P535.6 million in 2017 to P2, 222.7 million in 2018. Government bonds continued to dominate liquidity of the market accounting for 97.9 percent of total turnover. The BSE registered a record number of new bond listings as 10 new bonds came on board compared to 8 in 2017. “This cushioned the impact of the 4 bond delisting in the year.
Even though Government bonds accounted for the majority of trading activity corporate bonds dominated in terms of the quantity of bonds listed, a phenomenon that in most African markets is the reverse,” explains the market status report. At sector level, the profile of the bond market at the end of 2018 was such that Government bonds accounted for 63.8 percent of market capitalization, Quasi-Government (1.3 percent), Parastatals (7.9 percent), Corporate (25.3 percent) and Supranational (1.7 percent).
The recent study on youth entrepreneurship in Botswana has identified difficult access to funding, land, machinery, lack of entrepreneurial mindset and proper training as serious challenges that continue to hamper youth entrepreneurship development in this country.
The study conducted by Alliance for African Partnership (AAP) in collaboration with University of Botswana has confirmed that despite the government and private sector multi-billion pula entrepreneurship development initiatives, many young people in Botswana continue to fail to grow their businesses into sustainable and successful companies that can help reduce unemployment.
University of Botswana researchers Gaofetege Ganamotse and Rudolph Boy who compiled findings in the 2022 study report for Botswana stated that as part of the study interviews were conducted with successful youth entrepreneurs to understand their critical success factors.
According to the researchers other participants were community leaders, business mentors, Ministry of Trade and Industry, Ministry of Youth, Gender, Sport and Culture, financial institutions, higher education institutions, non-governmental institutions, policymakers, private organizations, and support structures such as legal and technical experts and accountants who were interviewed to understand how they facilitate successful youth entrepreneurship.
The researchers said they found that although Botswana government is perceived as the most supportive to businesses when compared to other governments in sub-Saharan Africa, youth entrepreneurs still face challenges when accessing government funding. “Several finance-related challenges were identified by youth entrepreneurs. Some respondents lamented the lack of access to start-up finance, whereas others mentioned lack of access to infrastructure.”
The researchers stated that in Botswana entrepreneurship is not yet perceived as a field or career of choice by many youth “Participants in the study emphasized that the many youth are more of necessity entrepreneurs, seeing business venturing as a “fall back. Other facilitators mentioned that some youth do not display creativity, mind-blowing innovative solutions, and business management skills. Some youth entrepreneurs like to take shortcuts like selling sweets or muffins.”
According to the researchers, some of the youth do not display perseverance when they are faced with adversity in business. “Young people lack of an entrepreneurial mindset is a common challenge among youth in business. Some have a mindset focused on free services, handouts, and rapid gains. They want overnight success. As such, they give up easily when faced with challenges. On the other hand, some participants argue that they may opt for quick wins because they do not have access to any land, machinery, offices, and vehicles.”
The researchers stated that most youth involved in business ventures do not have the necessary training or skills to maintain a business. “Poor financial management has also been cited as one of the challenges for youth entrepreneurs, such as using profit for personal reasons rather than investing in the business. Also some are not being able to separate their livelihood from their businesses.
Lastly, youth entrepreneurs reported a lack of experience as one of the challenges. For example, the experience of running a business with projections, sticking to the projections, having an accounting system, maintaining a clean and clear billing system, and sound administration system.”
According to the researchers, the participants in the study emphasized that there is fragmentation within the entrepreneurial ecosystem, whereby there is replication of business activities without any differentiation. “There is no integration of the ecosystem players. As such, they end up with duplicate programs targeting the same objectives. The financial sector recommended that there is a need for an intermediary body that will bring all the ecosystem actors together and serve as a “one-stop shop” for entrepreneurs and build mentorship programs that accommodate the business lifecycle from inception to growth.”
Botswana Housing Corporation (BHC) is said to have recorded an operating surplus of P61 Million, an improvement compared to the previous year. The housing, office and other building needs giant met with stakeholders recently to share how the business has been.
The P61 million is a significant increase against the P6 million operating loss realized in the prior year. Profit before income tax also increased significantly from P2 million in the prior year to P72 million which resulted in an overall increase in surplus after tax from P1 million prior year to P64 million for the year under review.
Chief of Finance Officer, Diratsagae Kgamanyane disclosed; “This growth in surplus was driven mainly by rental revenue that increased by 15% from P209 million to P240 million and reduction in expenditure from P272 million to P214 million on the back of cost containment.” He further stated that sales of high margin investment properties also contributed significantly to the growth in surplus as well as impairment reversals on receivables amounting to P25 million.
It is said that the Corporation recorded a total revenue of P702 million, an 8% decrease when compared to the P760 million recorded in the prior year. “Sales revenue which is one of the major revenue streams returned impressive margins, contributing to the overall growth in the gross margin,” added Kgamanyane.
He further stated professional fees revenue line declined significantly by 64% to P5 million from P14 million in the prior year which attributed to suspension of planned projects by their clients due to Covid-19 pandemic. “Facilities Management revenue decreased by P 24 million from P69 million recorded in prior year to P45 million due to reduction in projects,” Kgamanyane said.
The Corporation’s strength is on its investment properties portfolio that stood at P1.4 billion at the end of the reporting period. “The Corporation continues its strategy to diversify revenue streams despite both facilities management income and professional fees being challenged by the prevailing economic conditions that have seen its major clients curtailing spending,” added the CEO.
On the one hand, the Corporation’s Strategic Performance which intended to build 12 300 houses by 2023 has so far managed to build 4 830 houses under their SHHA funding scheme, 1 240 houses for commercial or external use which includes use by government and 1 970 houses to rent to individuals.
BHC Acting CEO Pascaline Sefawe noted that; BHC’s planned projects are said to include building 336 flat units in Gaborone Block 7 at approximately P224 million, 100 units in Maun at approximately P78 million, 13 units in Phakalane at approximately P26 million, 212 units in Kazungula at approximately P160 million, 96 units at approximately P42 million in Francistown and 84 units at approximately P61 million in Letlhakane. Emphasing; “People tend to accuse us of only building houses in Gaborone, so here we are, including other areas in our planned projects.”
Researchers from some government owned regulatory institutions in the financial sector have projected that the banking sector’s profitability could increase, following Bank of Botswana Monetary Policy Committee recent decision to increase monetary policy rate.
In its bid to manage inflation, Bank of Botswana Monetary Policy Committee last month increased monetary policy rate by 0.50 percent from 1.65 percent to 2.15 percent, a development which resulted with commercial banking sector increasing interest rate in lending to household and companies. As a result of BoB adjustment of Monetary Policy Rate, from 1.65 percent to 2.15 percent commercial banks increased prime lending rate from 5.76 percent to 6.26 percent.
Researchers from Bank of Botswana, the Non-Bank Financial Institutions Regulatory Authority, the Financial Intelligence Agency and the Botswana Stock Exchange indicated that due to prospects of high inflation during the second half of 2022, there is a possibility that the Monetary Policy Committee could further increase monetary policy rate in the next meeting in August 25 2022.
Inflation rose from 9.6 percent in April 2022 to 11.9 percent in May 2022, remaining above the Bank of Botswana medium-term objective range of 3 – 6 percent. According to the researchers inflation could increase further and remain high due to factors that include: the potential increase in international commodity prices beyond current forecasts, logistical constraints due to lags in production, the economic and price effects of the ongoing Russia- Ukraine conflict, uncertain COVID-19 profile, domestic risk factors relating to possible regular annual administered price adjustments, short-term unintended consequences of import restrictions resulting with shortages in supplies leading to price increases, as well as second-round effects of the recent increases in administered prices “Furthermore, the likelihood of further increases in domestic fuel prices in response to persistent high international oil prices could add upward pressure to inflation,” said the researchers.
The researchers indicated that Bank of Botswana could be forced to further increase monetary policy rate from the current 2.15 percent if inflation rises persistently. “Should inflation rise persistently this could necessitate an upward adjustment in the policy rate. It is against this background that the interest rate scenario assumes a 1.5 percentage points (moderate scenario) and 2.25 percentage points (severe scenario) upward adjustment in the policy rate,” said the researchers.
The researchers indicated that while any upward adjustment on BoB monetary policy rate and commercial banks prime lending rate result with increase in the cost of borrowing for household and compnies, it increase profitability for the banking sector. “Increases in the policy rate are associated with an overall increase in bank profitability, with resultant increases in the capital adequacy ratio of 0.1 percentage points and 0.2 percentage points for the moderate and severe scenarios, respectively,” said the researchers who added that upward adjustment in monetary policy rate would raise extra capital for the banking sector.
“The increase in profit generally reflects the banking industry’s positive interest rate gap, where interest earning assets exceed interest earning liabilities maturing in the next twelve months. Therefore, an increase of 1.5 percentage points in the policy rate would result in industry gains of P71.7 million (4.1 percent increase), while a 2.25 percentage points increase would lead to a gain of P173.9 million (6.1 percent increase), dominated by large banks,” said the researchers.