While acknowledging that the recent salary increment by government which was done for the 2019/20 financial year will lead to credit grown and increase in domestic demand, Bank of Botswana governor Moses Pelaelo said this will not overheat inflation beyond the objective range of 3 – 6 percent in the medium term.
The governor said this when delivering the Monetary Policy Statement of 2019 released this week. Pelaelo said despite expected spending in school fees which happens normally in the beginning of the year, inflation will not go overboard. He emphasized that people will take loans or credit will increase in banks, but that will not move inflation beyond its position which is a range of 3 – 6 percent. This is also despite the drought which is being experienced by the region and covers Botswana and its food import partners. Food prices may go up, but BoB does not see any sign of inflation overheating above range.
When making economic prospects for 2019 BoB said both external and domestic pressures on inflation are expected to be benign, and it is projected that inflation will remain within the 3 – 6 percent objective range in the short to medium term. “This forecast incorporates the estimated impact of the increase in public service salaries and prospects for continued accommodative monetary conditions.
Having said that, it is worth underscoring the point that any upward adjustment in administered prices and government levies and/or taxes and any increase in international commodity prices that is substantially beyond current projections present upside risks to the inflation outlook.” In contrast, downside risks to inflation arise from the restrained growth in global economic activity, the tendency of the ongoing technological progress to lower costs and the reduction in commodity prices,” said Pelaelo.
The 10 percent-6 percent recent increase in wages by government is expected to gobble close to P2 billion from government’s purse in a period of two financial years being 2019/20 and 2020/21. Economists believe the increase will help cushion purchase power to some point as they will be increase in personal incomes which will lead to credit growth in households hence increase in economic activity.
The BoB Monetary Policy Statement of 2019 released this week suggests that the domestic economy woke from a hangover of “subdued domestic demand pressures, as a result of the restrained growth in personal incomes and largely stable foreign inflation” of 2018. According to the Bank’s Monetary Policy Statement, last year was the year of restrained growth in the personal incomes as the nominal national increased only by a paltry 3 percent on average which was below the average inflation rate for the period resulting in erosion of purchasing power.
However, according to BoB governor Moses Pelaelo, the Bank did not lose monetary policy control as it maintained price stability with inflation remaining within the objective range of 3 – 6 percent in the medium term. According to the Bank, Inflation fell from 3.8 percent in November to 3.5 percent in December 2018.
“This favourable medium-term outlook for inflation is in the context of moderate growth in economic activity and a sound and stable financial system. Therefore, prospective developments augur well for maintenance of an accommodative monetary policy that supports productive lending to businesses and to households, for welfare enhancements that also drive 17 economic activities.
The Bank’s implementation of monetary policy will continue to focus on entrenching expectations of low, predictable and sustainable inflation, through timely responses to price developments; while at the same time, taking due care to ensure that policy decisions are consistent with ensuring financial stability and supportive of sustainable economic growth and employment creation,” said Pelaelo this week.
When looking back domestic output is estimated to have expanded by 5.1 percent in the twelve months to September 2018, compared to lower growth of 2.4 percent in the year to September 2017 and his expansion was mainly driven by sustained improvement in non-mining GDP growth and the recovery in mining output.
According to the Bank, inflation was low and stable, and fluctuated around the lower end of the objective range of 3 – 6 percent for most of 2018; and the outcome was broadly consistent with projections for the year. The BoB governor said the low rate of annual price increase was mostly due to the decrease in food inflation. Food price inflation decreased from 1.1 percent in 2017 to a negative 0.2 percent in 2018, however fuel prices increased significantly by 16.1 percent during 2018, due to upward adjustments in May, October and November.
“This compares to a relatively smaller increase of 9.5 percent in 2017. Overall, the increase in administered prices (including fuel prices, public transport fares, as well as 10 electricity tariffs) added 1.86 percentage points to inflation in 2018,” said Pelaelo. Pelaelo said the overall modest increase in prices in Botswana was in the context of subdued domestic demand pressures, as a result of the restrained growth in personal incomes and largely stable foreign inflation. According to the governor monetary policy was therefore conducted against the background of below-trend economic activity and a positive medium-term outlook for inflation and moderate fiscal expansion.
Government expenditure grew by 6.6 percent in 2018 compared to a contraction of 6.3 percent in the prior year. It should be recognized, in this respect, that beyond the increase in wages, the short-term impact of government spending on domestic demand is moderated to the extent that a significant component involves infrastructure and capacity development. “In the context of Botswana, this type of spending tends to be import intensive and the economic benefits of such public investments are derived in the medium to long term,” said Pelaelo.
Regarding wage developments, it is notable that government recurrent expenditure included a 3 percent salary increase with effect from April 1, 2018. Government increased salaries last year 1 April 2018 by 3 percent and BoB there was nominal national wages increased only by 2.3 percent- which was below the average inflation rate for the period-a development that suggest a modest impact on domestic demand and inflation.
According to last year’s statistics commercial bank credit accelerated from 5.6 percent in 2017 to 7.7 percent in 2018 and included a faster increase in lending to businesses, from 3.2 percent in 2017 to 10 percent in 2018. However for households, annual credit expansion fell from 7.2 percent in 2017 to 6.2 percent in 2018 and this is attributed to restrained growth in personal incomes as the last year 3 percent salary increment did not raise the bar any further.
In the households, this included a 7 percent increase in personal loans and 4.9 percent for mortgages, compared to respective growth rates of 9.2 percent and 4.8 percent in 2017. However Pelaelo said when looking at the monetary issue in a broad picture, the rate of credit growth continued to be supportive of economic activity, with minimal risk to financial stability.
The Global economy and the trade war
The domestic economy is forecast to grow by 4.2 percent in 2019, slightly lower than the estimate of 4.5 percent for 2018. According to BoB, the main factors expected to support growth in economic activity include conducive financing conditions associated with an accommodative monetary policy stance and a sound financial environment.
Therefore the budgeted 3.6 percent expansion in government spending in 2019/20 and the implementation of initiatives such as the doing business reforms, are expected to further support growth in economic activity and employment creation according to the Bank. According to BoB the global economy on the other hand is expected to grow by 3.5 percent in 2019, lower than estimated expansion of 3.7 percent in 2018. The Bank says the projected lower growth is premised on anticipated slower expansion in advanced economies, mostly reflecting subdued performance in the euro area.
The US GDP growth is forecast to decline from 2.9 percent in 2018 to 2.5 percent in 2019, as the impact of the fiscal stimulus dissipates while growth in emerging market and developing economies is projected at 4.5 percent in 2019, slightly lower than the 4.6 percent in 2018. According to the Bank the risks to the global economic activity are skewed to the downside, with prospects for escalation of trade tensions (trade war), tightening financial conditions, a no-deal Brexit and relatively weaker growth in China presenting key risks to the outlook.
“Global inflationary pressures are forecast to be modest in the short to medium term, reflecting below-potential output. In this environment, it is anticipated that monetary policy will remain accommodative in most economies, complemented by measures aimed at facilitating financial intermediation, while fostering resilience of the financial sector, to support growth in economic activity.
It is, therefore, notable, that the earlier anticipated monetary policy normalization (or increase of interest rates) in the advanced countries is being re-assessed and restrained with the advent of generalized weaker economic performance and heightened policy uncertainty,” said Bank of Botswana in its recent Monetary Policy Statement.
Sefalana released their best ever half year financial results. Revenue grew by 2.3% to BWP2.91 billion (HY 2019: BWP2.85 billion). Gross profit increased by 17.4% to BWP215.1 million (HY 2019:
BWP183.3 million) yielding an improved gross profit margin of 7.4% (HY 2019: 6.4%). Administrative expenses went up by 7.8% to BWP97.0 million (HY 2019: BWP90.0 million). EBITA shot up by 31.5% to BWP138.6 million (HY 2019: BWP105.4 million) translating to EBITA margin of 4.8% (HY 2019: 3.7%).
Investment income was BWP22.8 million (HY 2019: BWP28.2 million). Profit before tax increased by 22.8% to BWP148.7 million (HY 2019: BWP121.1 million). Effective tax rate was lower at 23.9% (HY 2019: 28.4%) translating to a 30.7% hike in profit after tax to BWP113.2 million (HY 2019: BWP86.7 million).
Local Trading consumer goods segment was resilient despite a marginal decline in revenue. Revenue declined by 1.6% to BWP1.59 billion (HY 2019: BWP1.62 billion), however a 2.0% decline in cost of goods sold offset decline in revenue to see gross profit increase by 7.6% to BWP75.6 million (HY 2019: BWP70.3 million), an improved gross profit margin of 4.8% (HY 2019: 4.3%) was realized as a result.
Profit for the period was down 2.4% to BWP34.8 million (HY 2019: BWP35.7 million) mainly impacted by restrictions on liquor sales which have been in place for the entire reporting period. At the beginning of the financial year, the group manned 4 Hyper Stores (“Sefalana Hyper”), 25 Cash& Carry stores (“Sefalana Cash& Carry”) and 29 supermarket retail stores (“Sefalana Shopper”).During the period, Sefalana Shopper retail store in Shakawe, Sefalana Liquor outlet in Tlokweng were opened, and Sefalana Shopper Molepolole store was refurbished.
Lesotho has seen its revenue increase by 30.9% to BWP295.7 million (HY 2019: BWP225.8 million). Profit before tax spiked 162.4% to BWP1.9 million (HY 2019: -BWP3.1 million). Namibia has performed well to place it as the largest contributor to profit before tax. The segment’s revenue increased by 5.5% to BWP896.8 million (HY 2019: BWP850.2 million). Gross profit rose by 25.4% to BWP60.9 million (HY 2019: BWP48.6 million) translating to an improved gross profit margin of 6.8% (HY 2019: 5.7%). Profit before tax went up by 40.6% to BWP39.8 million (HY 2019: BWP28.3 million).
The Manufacturing arm had an excellent performance. Revenue rose by 26.7% to BWP125.0 million (HY 2019: BWP98.7 million). Gross profit increased by 39.4% to BWP28.6 million (HY 2019: BWP20.5 million), producing a gross profit margin of 22.9% (HY 2019: 20.8%). Profit before tax shot up by 96.5% to BWP16.0 million (HY 2019: BWP8.1 million). The profitability of this business is largely driven by the timing of orders placed by Government for its various feeding schemes and availability of raw material.
The milling division has for all six months manufactured and supplied in full to the Government, however only one third of the total contract volumes was awarded to the business in respect of the 24 month contract issued in April 2020. Raw materials have been procured and contracts entered into for procurement of grain to fulfill any additional volumes that the Government might require.
Beverages division was awarded a 24 month supply of milk tender to the Government for the children’s feeding scheme in March 2019 which is currently being fulfilled. There has been a shortage in raw materials in the region due to a reduced number of dairy cows during the pandemic as farmers placed more focus on meat production. Despite an underway catch up on reinstating dairy cow population the business expects shortages to continue in early 2021.
The Trading others segment experienced a decline on its top and bottom line figures. Revenue went down by 43.9% to BWP42.2 million (HY 2019: BWP75.2 million). Gross profit went down by 23.9% to BWP11.5 million (HY 2019: BWP15.1 million). Profit before tax went down 56.8% to BWP3.2 million (HY 2019: BWP7.4 million). The segment was impacted by a reduction in sales of motor vehicles as customers prioritized spending on essential goods and services.
The Property segment in Botswana performed well, with all most all properties tenanted for leases ranging between two-six years. Setlhoa site is complete, comprising of Sefalana Shopper store, petrol station and rentals to Ital Tiles and CTM. Just over 5000sqm of land remains vacant. The space initially set out for the group’s Motor Dealership will be considered for other alternative options in a bid to optimize return from the site. In contra, Zambia performed below the previous period as the past two years elapsed in search of replacement tenants for their premises due to an influx of similar properties.
A 3000sqm warehouse space is expected to commence development in February 2021 to house bottled water and fruit juice plants. Milling division anticipates expansion by the end of 2021, the expansion is to include a wheat milling plant which will leverage on existing infrastructure and complement existing milling activities.
A phase 2 investment in Australian business is expected in May 2021. Five more stores will be acquired through this investment to bring the stores to a total of 12 in that market. The investment amount is anticipated to be around P80 million, to be funded through existing cashflows.
The preference share agreement on the South African consortium matures in July 2022. The group’s appetite for conversion of its investment in to a 30% equity stake will be influenced by the covid-19 pandemic impact. As such a decision will be made closer to maturity date.
The group maintains that its 40% interest in Grow Mine Africa (Pty) Limited, the Preferred Bidder in the National Lottery remains in place. According to management, the judgement of urgent application was in favor of Grow Mine and the formal ruling by the courts will be issued next week. Accordingly, further negotiations with the Gambling Authority are expected in quarter one of 2021.
Botswana Diamond PLC, a Botswana Stock Exchange (BSE) listed exploration company has moved a step closer towards developing it’s much talked about gem deposits around the Central Kalahari area in Botswana.
On Tuesday the company notified its shareholders through a circular published on the BSE, that it has entered into a cooperation agreement to fund exploration of its prospecting licence assets in Botswana with Diamexstrat Botswana Pty Ltd (DESB), which in turn has an alliance agreement with Burgundy Diamond Mines Limited, an Australia Stock Exchange (ASX) listed mining company.
BOD’s prospecting assets comprise the recently acquired Sekaka Diamonds Exploration Pty Ltd (Sekaka) database and Prospecting Licenses, as well as the Prospecting Licences held by BOD’s subsidiary, Sunland Minerals Pty Ltd (Sunland Minerals).
According to the statement from Botswana Diamond, Diamexstrat Botswana and its partner, Burgundy would earn up to a 70% interest in BOD’s Botswana Sunland Minerals and Sekaka’s Prospecting Licences.
On the other hand BOD can earn a 15% interest in Prospecting Licences held by Diamexstrat and its partners on the first US$1.5m spent on exploration by Diamexstrat where BOD’s database assists in the discovery of a primary kimberlite.
On 3rd party Prospecting Licences where targets are identified in BOD’s database, a joint earn-in will be negotiated at the time. For new Botswana Prospecting Licences, Diamexstrat, and its partner, Burgundy can earn up to 70%. Under the Agreement, the parties have agreed to utilize BOD’s diamond exploration database, which it acquired in last year as part of the acquisition of Sekaka Diamonds Exploration Pty Ltd (Sekaka).
The database contains the results of work undertaken by Sekaka’ former owner, Petra Diamonds, since 2005, and includes data in respect of airborne, including the Falcon survey, and ground magnetics (including gravity and EM), in addition to heavy mineral sampling.
DESB has six months to conduct an initial review of BOD’s database , in order to identify exploration targets within any of BOD’s existing Sunland and Sekaka Prospecting Licences (excluding the KX36 Kimberlite held by Sekaka) (the “Designated PL”).
DESB will be entitled to earn a 50% interest in a Designated PL by meeting the annual minimum exploration expenditure commitment on the Designated PL and in addition either discovering a kimberlite through the intersection of kimberlite in any drill holes or a potential secondary diamondiferous alluvial deposit through the intersection of gravels in a drill hole or pit.
DESB shall be entitled to earn an additional 1%, to hold 51% in any Designated PL, by proving the primary kimberlite or alluvial deposit to be diamondiferous through funding the required micro-diamond analysis or bulk sampling.
DESB will also be entitled to earn a further 19%, to hold 70% in the Designated PL, by subsequently funding and delivering a bankable feasibility study. Any Prospecting Licence not selected by DESB at the end of the six-month period will remain wholly-owned by BOD.
Where it is agreed that geological data present in the database that was not previously available to DESB has assisted in the discovery of a kimberlite or a secondary alluvial deposit within the Exploration Area , BOD shall be granted a 15% free carry for the initial approved US$1.5 million of Exploration Expenditure by DESB on the discovery. Once the Exploration Expenditure has been incurred, each party will contribute funding in accordance with its interest or be diluted pro-rata.
Sunland Minerals holds 12 active Prospecting Licences in the Gope/CKGR (Kalahari) area. As at 30 June 2020, the audited carrying value of BOD’s Sunland Minerals assets amounted to £1.1 million and Sunland’s loss before tax amounted to £43,101.
In the year ended 30 June 2020, Sunland’s Exploration Expenditure, mainly comprising licence fees and the costs of maintaining the licence in good standing, together with agreed fixed costs and expenses, amounted to £65,760.
On 30 November 2020, Botswana Diamonds completed the acquisition of Sekaka which holds three Prospecting Licences in the Central Kalahari Game Reserve in Botswana, PL169/2019, PL058/2007 and PL224/2007, which includes the KX36 kimberlite pipe.
The acquisition also included an extensive database. The consideration comprised a cash payment of US$300,000 and a 5% royalty on future revenues. The first deferred consideration cash payment of US$150,000 will be payable on 27 November 2021, being the first anniversary of completion of the acquisition and the balance on or before 27 November 2022.
In Sekaka’s audited annual financial statements for the year ended 30 June 2019, Sekaka reported a loss before taxation of Pula 16,875,179 (equivalent to approximately £1.16 million, which included a non-cash foreign exchange loss of Pula 11,688,432 (equivalent to approximately £0.8 million) on the carrying value of the historic intercompany debt which was extinguished on acquisition.
As at 30 June 2019, Sekaka had audited total assets of Pula 6,565,700 (equivalent to approximately £425k). Diamexstrat is a privately owned company focused on diamond exploration in Botswana chaired by Gerard de la Vallee Poussin and with Barry Bayly as the Chief Executive Officer. Both Gerard and Barry have extensive experience in the exploration for diamondiferous kimberlites in Africa.
Commenting on the cooperation between BOD and Diaexstrat , James Campbell, Managing Director, of BOD said the partnership will progress the extensive and highly prospective exploration assets in Botswana which comprises Sekaka Diamonds and with our own drill-ready prospects in Sunland Minerals.
“I look forward to working with the Diamexstrat and Burgundy teams made-up of complimentary highly experienced and leading experts in the field of diamond exploration and project development”. John Teeling, Chairman of Botswana Diamonds Board of Directors said Botswana is one of the world’s best addresses for diamond exploration. He explained that the combination of a fresh approach and advanced technology, supported by a recovering diamond market, presents both parties with significant opportunities.
“I am delighted to announce this partnership with experienced Diamexstrat, and its ASX listed-partner, Burgundy, which expands and deepens our exploration work.”
As countries continue to battle climate change which is a result of increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, local coal-bed Methane (CBM) exploration outfit, Tlou Energy this week revealed intent to make the Lesedi Power project the first carbon neutral power project in Botswana.
The multi-listed company, which is focused on generating cleaner power in Botswana for supply into the local and regional power markets said they have already negotiated land access and leasing agreements with relevant land-holders for the power generation facility and new field operations camp.
According to a statement from Botswana Stock Exchange (BSE) listed energy entity, there have been recent steps taken to acquire additional land for carbon sequestration and there is also availability of land and labour within the Lesedi project which favours Tlou Energy in developing carbon neutral power project.
Carbon sequestration involves capturing and storing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere so that it potentially reduces its contribution to global warming. It is essentially the long-term storage of carbon in soil, plants, and geological formations. Carbon sequestration can occur naturally and as a result of human activities and typically refers to the storage of carbon that has the immediate potential to become carbon dioxide gas.
Tlou Energy Managing Director, Tony Gilby commented: “There is considerable scope for using the savanna ecosystem of the Lesedi region for carbon sequestration by protecting it from burning and intensive grazing leading to an increase in the ability of the vegetation to store carbon over time.” “This will assist Tlou to be able to supply carbon neutral power to the considerable number of potential customers in the region.”
Gilby also revealed that the regional power consumer, Orapa diamond mine operated by Debswana and located north of Tlou’s gas fields has publicly stated their objective to decrease their carbon footprint. According to Tlou Energy MD, the Lesedi project area is considered as shrub savanna containing various tree species. He however noted that subdivisions found within Tlou’s project area are predominantly rural with most of the land being deployed due to livestock agriculture.
“Tlou is in the process of negotiating the acquisition of land to reduce livestock numbers and implement fire mitigation measures. This will substantially increase the amount of available woody biomass which can be used to claim carbon credits within the project area,” he said.
The company said carbon credits will be offset against the carbon dioxide associated with Lesedi’s gas fired power generation component noting that the gas will in any event produce considerably less carbon dioxide compared to the ones generated by coal and diesel.
“Carbon reduction is part of Tlou’s commitment to the environment and part of the company’s Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) program aimed at enhancing the lives of the local population and regional communities,” said Tlou energy MD.
“Tlou has a track record of supporting local charities and youth groups and looking to grow local employment with investment in community ventures. This includes programs aimed at growing higher nutritional value crops for local livestock so grazing could be reduced and biomass preserved, as well as promoting wildlife.”
Meanwhile, last month Botswana Government through Ministry of Mineral Resources, Green Technology & Energy Security (MMGE) underscored its intention to support power generation through Coal-Bed- Methane (CBM). Tlou’s MD Gilby commented, “It is great to see that Botswana is open for business and the Government is motivated to get the gas industry up and running.
Gilby revealed that his company plans to start development of the Lesedi project as soon as possible noting that “confirmation of the Government’s enthusiasm to provide the necessary support to ensure commercial development of CBM is very well received.” “In addition, we have also recommenced negotiations with Botswana based project financiers this month as we aim to close a deal for funding as soon as possible.
After what was an extremely challenging year the Company is already making progress in 2021 and anticipate further advancement on all fronts in the coming term. We look forward to updating the market with further developments in due course,” he concluded.