President Mokgweetsi Masisi in a desperate measure to turn around the fortunes of Botswana’s economy and create jobs has been trotting the globe in a bid to convince investors to come and set-up businesses in Botswana. While Masisi’s gesture is fundamental in re-energizing the economy which has been sluggish since the 2008 economic down turn, there are underlying factors that may thwart his ambitions, writes ALFRED MASOKOLA.
The latest Global Competitiveness Report ranks Botswana 90th most competitive economy out of 140 countries, far much worse off than it ranked in 2009, where it was number 56 in the world. In the latest Doing Business Report, Botswana is ranked 86 out of 190 countries far much worse than it did in 2006, when it was ranked 40th in the world.
These two reports — The Global Competitiveness Report and Doing Business Report, published by the World Economic Forum and World Bank respectively, are the best indicators that Botswana can use to see how it is faring when compared to its competitors and why investors may choose other countries over Botswana.
In 2018, the World Economic Forum introduced a new methodology emphasizing the role of human capital, innovation, resilience and agility, as not only drivers but also defining features of economic success in the 4th Industrial Revolution. As a result, the GCI scale changed to 1 to 100 from 1 to 7, with higher average score meaning higher degree of competitiveness. The report is made up of 98 variables organised into twelve pillars with the most important including: institutions; infrastructure; ICT adoption; macroeconomic stability; health; skills; product market; labour market; financial system; market size; business dynamism; and innovation capability.
The Global Competitiveness Report also looks into the private sector’s capacity to generate and adopt new technologies and new ways to organise work, through a culture that embraces change, risk, new business models, and administrative rules that allow firms to enter and exit the market easily. The report recognises that an agile and dynamic private sector increases productivity by taking business risks, testing new ideas and creating innovative products and services.
In an environment characterized by frequent disruption and redefinition of businesses and sectors, successful economic systems are resilient to technological shocks and are able to constantly re-invent themselves. With the business dynamism and innovation capability recognised a key indicator in the 4th industrial revolution, Botswana is not among leaders in this respect and it there are emerging countries such as Kenya and Rwanda, who despite ranking inferior to Botswana in overall rankings, have entered the space with much needed agility.
Botswana Innovation Hub (BIH) Director of Marketing and Partnerships, Tshepo Tsheko contended last week at Botswana International Trade Centre (BITC) media engagement session that Botswana should build capacities in the ICT to attract tech giants to set-up in Botswana. He said failure to do so would not make Botswana an attractive place to do business in as ICT is the driver of business for government and other organisations, noting that countries like Kenya and Rwanda are doing what Botswana had the opportunity to do in its economy.
“Botswana should make a decision on what we want to invest in. Investors will not do it for us, they are looking for market,” he said. “We want to be known for something in ICT and innovation, and we still have the opportunity to decide.” Tsheko said, what we say we are to the world does not matter, what matters is what people from other countries experience the moment they set their foot in the country.
He said currently there is credibility gap in ICT and innovation efforts in Botswana, because the local market is apprehensive which has resulted in local digital solutions not being taken. Tsheko expressed confidence that Botswana has necessary skills in ICT to solve challenges facing the country.
WHY HAS BOTSWANA LAGGED BEHIND IN ICT AND INNOVATION?
Although Botswana performs better than most countries in the Sub-Saharan Africa, with South Africa, Mauritius and Seychelles ranking ahead — there is a compelling need to invest in ICT and innovation in Botswana, according to the The Global Competitiveness Report. Soon after being sworn in parliament in 2016, Bogolo Kenewendo, then a backbencher highlighted that Botswana’s snail progress was hindering the country from transforming its economy.
“Like I said in parliament during my contribution, businesses and investors do not care that we are a landlocked country, they are looking for a place where they can easily do business hassle free and reap the best rewards,”Kenewendo told WeekendPost then. Kenewendo observed that Botswana lacks agility and is moving at a snail pace, hence other countries such as Rwanda are able to perform better. In the past 10 years Rwanda economy grew at 7.2 percent on average, and also attracted foreign investment of 4.2 percent of its GDP over the same period, according to the Global Competitiveness Report.
In the same period, Botswana’s economy only experienced an average of 3.6 percent growth and attracted 2.8 percent in FDI. . “Some of them came here to benchmark in Botswana, then went back to implement because they have agility. The world is moving faster, so we need to be agile,” she said. Today, Kenewendo is the custodian of Botswana’s business environment as the Minister of Investment, Trade and Industry, a position she assumed after Masisi became president in April last year.
After taking over the reins, the youthful legislator admitted that that a lot has to be done in business reforms. She has since embarked on policy and regulatory reforms at her ministry to improve the business land scape in Botswana in order to improve the doing business rankings. Chief among the reforms were the adoption of the 2014 Doing Business Roadmap and Action Plan, whose objective is to reduce the cost of doing business in Botswana as well as create an environment where business is not hindered by unnecessary regulation and bureaucracy.
Last year parliament passed amendments to both companies and the registration of Business Names Acts as well as introduction of new pieces of legislation that allows for re-registration of both the existing companies and business names, paving way for the implementation of the Online Business Registration System (OBRS). The system is expected to be launched during the first quarter of 2019 and is expected to bring with it benefits such as improve data integrity, reduced turnaround times, less paperwork and improved overall efficiency.
WHAT IS THE STATUS OF BOTSWANA’S INFRASTRUCTURE?
Botswana is ranked 108 in infrastructure pillar in the Global Competitiveness Report. The infrastructure pillar looks at the quality and extension of transport infrastructure (road, rail, water and air) and utility infrastructure. This is so because the report indicate that better-connected geographic areas have generally been more prosperous. Well-developed infrastructure lowers transportation and transaction costs, and facilitates the movement of goods and people and the transfer of information within a country and across borders. It also ensures access to power and water—both necessary conditions for modern economic activity.
In 2017, Head of South African Development Community (SADC) Public Private Partnership (PPP) Network, Kogan Pillay warned that Botswana and Africa will go into recession in the next 10 years if the country does not adequately invest in its infrastructural needs. Pillay, who has vast experience in the implementation of PPPs and has previously worked for the South African government, is of the view that Africa’s big investors will shun the continent because of lack of infrastructure necessary for doing business.
“World Bank has warned about this happening,” he said at a workshop organised by Ministry of Finance and Economic Management. “Africa would not attract FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) because nobody would want to do business in a country which does not have infrastructure. It makes doing business difficult,” Pillay stated. According to Pillay, Africa needs US$ 90 billion to fund its infrastructural needs but it only has US$45 million availed for such.
It is believed that Botswana’s infrastructural needs can be resolved by developing an effective PPPs framework. Pillay believes that Botswana is not ready for PPPs until it develops a legal frame work which will guide investment and implementation of PPPs. “What Botswana has now is a policy, but you need to put it into law like other countries including South Africa,” he said. Pillay said PPPs are long term concessions to the private sector and should be done in a prudent manner to avoid forcing the country into bad commitment.
RESTORING INVESTOR CONFIDENCE
Botswana’s Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) ambitions have been met with counterproductive policies in the past decade which has led to frustrations and dent on Botswana as investment destination. In 2016, then BITC CEO, Letsebe Sejoe made shocking revelations that foreign investors are still finding it hard to pick Botswana as an ultimate place to do business because of the complications associated with running businesses in the country.
Sejoe then told the Parliamentary Committee on Statutory Bodies and Enterprises that Botswana is entirely opposite to what it has the world perceiving it as. Sejoe listed Permits and VISAs as the biggest challenge facing investors as he noted that delays in issuing the two frustrates inventors who end up going to other countries such as Rwanda, which has built a more conducive environment for investors.
The issue of permits and VISAs were reportedly handled by the Directorate on Intelligence Security (DIS), which has unlimited discretion on who is accepted or rejected. The parliament committee also heard that there was no turnaround time agreed on, and that the premises and VISAs can be rejected without explanation. Sejoe, who has since left the BITC then advised that part of solving the problem is to create a legal framework or policy which will guide certain procedures needed to facilitate business for companies lured by BITC to do business in Botswana.
He said while they have relationships with different stakeholders over facilitating the ease of doing business for foreign investors in Botswana, such partnerships are not binding and sometimes some institutions just ignore a request because they are not compelled by the law to do so. For instance, in countries like Mauritius they have what they call silent means approval. If a permit is supposed to be processed within 24 hours and there is no response after that time, the applicant has the right to go ahead because lack of response shows no objection,” he said.
Sejoe said Botswana should do the same, and design laws which promote business and protects investors if it is to continue being attractive to foreign investors. “Government does not appreciate the enormous impact the foreign direct investment can make in the country’s economy. We have this attitude of treating everyone the same,” he said. “There is also lack of appreciation of frustration experienced by these investors,” Sejoe added.
Sejoe said not only are new investors facing problems of permits, but that foreign owned companies, some which have employed hundreds of citizens are facing the same problem when they want to renew their permits. “Botswana is not an open economy like we say we are to the world. There are people who have been doing business in Botswana for over 30 years and government rejected their application for citizenship over the period and all of a sudden they were told to go,” he said.
“Investors are cagey on this. Some who are already doing business in Botswana are sceptical about expanding their business because their future in Botswana is uncertain. Investors need certainty and some level of predictability,” he further advised. Sejoe narrated that some companies with operational businesses in Botswana but with their directors residing outside Botswana have had their directors’ VISAs rejected when they wanted to attend a business meeting in Botswana; he said this recount proved that Botswana is a difficult environment to do business in. Masisi has however admitted to this problem and has moved swiftly to act, the first step being to relief Director General of DIS Colonel Isaack Kgosi and further promising to embrace the policy of open economy.
WHICH COUNTRIES ARE FARING BETTER IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA?
Mauritius ranks 49th globally. With a score of 63.7 out of 100 it achieves the best performance in Sub-Saharan Africa, in line with 2017. Mauritius’s leading position in the region is reflected in a GDP growth consistently above 3 percent since 2006, and above 4 percent over the past three years.
The competitiveness performance of Mauritius is relatively strong in eight of 12 GCI pillars, where it ranks 67th or higher. Among these eight pillars Mauritius has achieved its best score on the Product market pillar (65.6, 19th), thanks to a high degree of openness (6th) and a non-distortive fiscal policy (62.6, 16th). In addition, Mauritius is characterized by strong business dynamism (66.5, 35th) and sustained by lean administrative requirements (83.2) that enable companies to open and close with relative ease.
Finally, Mauritius has achieved a strong performance on the Institutions pillar (38th, 62.9), second only to Rwanda in the region. This is a considerable competitive advantage in SubSaharan Africa, where 65 percent of economies score below 50. On the other hand, the pillars where Mauritius delivers a weaker performance are those related to human capital: the Labour market (58.3, 74th), Skills (61.0, 74th) and Health (77.7, 83rd) pillars.
In particular, Mauritius is penalised by high redundancy costs (73.6 weeks of salary, 136th) and limited participation in the various levels of the educational system (6.8 mean years of schooling, 106th). South Africa ranks 67th globally—with a score of 60.8—and attains the second spot in Sub-Saharan Africa. Among its strengths, South Africa is home to a large market size (68.4), good infrastructure (68.6) and a well-developed financial system (82.1, 18th). More specifically, South Africa’s financial sector offers a Chapter 2: Regional and Country Analysis 36 | The Global Competitiveness Report 2018 relatively balanced access to various sources of finance, including credit (100.0, 11th), venture capital (33.0, 63rd), equity (100.0, 2nd) and insurance (100.0, 3rd).
In addition, South Africa’s innovation capability is relatively advanced (44.3, 46th), although limited by insufficient research and development (37.5). Among its weaknesses, South Africa’s performances on the Health pillar (43.2, 125th) and Security (43.7, 132nd) sub-pillar are among the worst in the world. Driven by high incidence of communicable diseases and high rate of homicides (34 per hundred population, 135th), these factors are major challenges for the economic and human development of the country. Low ICT adoption (46.1, 85th) is another important restraint on South Africa’s competitiveness.
Only 54 percent of the adult population has access to the internet, and only 70 out of 100 people have subscribed to mobile-broadband services (66th). Similarly, the digital skills (116th) and critical thinking skills (78th) of the current workforce are inadequate for the progress of a successful economy in the Fourth Industrial Revolution.
Here is how one Permanent Secretary encapsulates the clear tension between democracy and bureaucracy in Botswana: “President Mokgweetsi Masisi’s Government is behaving like a state surrounded with armed forces in order to capture it or force its surrender. The situation has turned so volatile, for tomorrow is not guaranteed for us top civil servants.
These are the painful results of a personalized civil service in our view as permanent secretaries”. Although his deduction of the situation may be summed as sour grapes because he is one of the ‘victims’ of the reshuffle, he is convinced this is a perfect description of the rationale behind frequent changes and transfers characterising the current civil service.
The result of it all, he said, is that “there is too much instability at managerial and strategic levels of the civil service leading to a noticeable directionless civil service.” He continued: “Changes and transfers are inevitable in the civil service, but to a permissible scale and frequency. Think of soccer team coach who changes and transfers his entire squad every month; you know the consequences?”
The Tsunami has hit hard at critical departments and Ministries leaving a strong wave of uncertainty, many demoralised and some jobless. In traditional approaches to public administration, democracy gives the goals; and bureaucracy delivers the technical efficiency required for implementation. But the recent moves in the civil service are indicative of conflicting imperatives – the notion of separation between politicians and administrators is becoming blurred by the day.
“Look at what happened to Prisons and BDF where second in command were overlooked for outsiders, and these are the people who had sacrificially served for donkey’s years hoping for a seat at the ladder’s end. The frequency of the changes, at times affecting the same Ministry or individual also demonstrates some level of ineptitude, clumsiness and lack of foresight from those in charge,” remarked the PS who added that their view is that the transfers are not related to anything but “settling scores, creating corruption opportunities and pushing out perceived dissident and former president, Ian Khama’s alleged loyalists and most of these transfers are said to be products of intelligence detection.”
Partly blaming Khama for the mess and his unwillingness to let go, the PS dismissed Masisi for falling to the trap and failing to outgrow the destructive tiff. “Khama is here to stay and the sooner Masisi comes to terms with the fact that he (Masisi) is the state President, the better. For a President to still be making these changes and transfers signals signs of a confused man who has not yet started rolling his roadmap, if at all it was ever there. I am saying this because any roadmap comes with key players and policies,” he concluded.
The Ministry of Health and Wellness seems to be the most hard-hit by the transfers, having experienced three Permanent Secretaries changes within a year and a half. Insiders say the changes have everything to do with the Ministry being the centre of COVID-19 tenders and economic opportunities. “The buck stops with the PS and no right-thinking PS can just allow glaring corruption under his watch as an accounting officer. Technocrats are generally law abiding, the pressure comes with politically appointed leaders racing against political terms to loot,” revealed a director in the Ministry preferring anonymity.
The latest transfer of Kabelo Ebineng she says was also motivated by his firm attitude against the President’s blue-eyed Task Team boys. “The Task Team wants to own the COVID-19 pandemic and government interventions and always cry foul when the Ministry reasserts itself as mandated by law,” said the director who added that Masisi who was always caught between the crossfire decided on sacrificing Ebineng to the joy of his team as they (Task Team) were in the habit of threatening to resign citing Ebineng as the problem.
Ebineng joins the Office of the President as a deputy Coordinator (government implementation and coordination office).The incoming PS is the soft-spoken Grace Muzila, known and described by her close associates as a conformist albeit knowledgeable.
One of the losers in the grand scheme is Thato Raphaka who many had seen as the next PSP because of his experience and calm demeanour following a declaration of interest in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) Secretary post by the current PSP, Elias Magosi.
But hardly ten months into his post, Raphaka has been transferred out to the National Strategy Office in what many see as a demotion of some sort. Other notable changes coming into OP are Pearl Ramokoka formerly with the Employment, Labour and Productivity Ministry coming in as a Permanent Secretary and Kgomotso Abi as director of Public Service Reforms.
One of the ousted senior officers in the Office of the President warned that there are no signs that the changes and transfers will stop anytime soon: “If you are observant you would have long noticed that the changes don’t only affect senior officers but government decisions as well. A decision is made today and the government backtracks on it within a week. Not only that, the President says this today, and his deputy denies it the following day in Parliament,” he warned.
Some observers have blamed the turmoil in the civil service partly to lack of accountable presidential advisers or kitchen cabinet properly schooled on matters of statecraft. They point out that politicians or those peripheral to them should refrain from hampering the technical and organizational activities of public managers – or else the party (reshuffling) won’t stop.
In the view expressed by some Permanent Secretaries, Elias Magosi, has not really been himself since joining the civil service; and has cut a picture of indifference in most critical engagements; the most notable been a permanent secretaries platform which he chairs. As things stand there is need to reconcile the imperatives of democracy and democracy in Botswana. Peace will rein only when public value should stand astride the fault that runs between politicians and public managers.
Former Permanent Secretary to the President, Carter Morupisi, is fighting for survival in a matter in which the State has charged him and his wife, Pinnie Morupisi, with corruption and money laundering.
Morupisi has joined a list of prominent figures that served in the previous administration and who have been accused of corruption during their tenure in office. While others have been emerging victorious, Morupisi is yet to find that luck. The High Court recently dismissed his no case to answer application.
United States President, Joe Biden, is faced with a decision to make relating to the Covid-19 vaccine intellectual property after 175 former world leaders and Nobel laurates joined the campaign urging the US to take “urgent action” to suspend intellectual property rights for Covid-19 vaccines to help boost global inoculation rates.
According to the world leaders, doing so would allow developing countries to make their own copies of the vaccines that have been developed by pharmaceutical companies without fear of being sued for intellectual property infringements.
“A WTO waiver is a vital and necessary step to bringing an end to this pandemic. It must be combined with ensuring vaccine know-how and technology is shared openly,” the signatories, comprising more than 100 Nobel prize-winners and over 70 former world leaders, wrote in a letter to US President Joe Biden, according to Financial Times.
A measure to allow countries to temporarily override patent rights for Covid related medical products was proposed at the World Trade Organization by India and South Africa in October, and has since been backed by nearly 60 countries.
Former leaders who signed the letter included Gordon Brown, former UK Prime Minister; François Hollande, former French President; Mikhail Gorbachev, former President of the USSR; and Yves Leterme, former Belgian Prime Minister.
In their official communication, South Africa and India said: “As new diagnostics, therapeutics and vaccines for Covid-19 are developed, there are significant concerns [about] how these will be made available promptly, in sufficient quantities and at affordable prices to meet global demand.”
While developed countries have been able to secure enough vaccine to inoculate their citizens, developing countries such as Botswana are struggling to source enough to swiftly vaccine their citizens, something which world leaders believe it would work against global recovery therefore proving counter-productive.
Since the availability of vaccines, Botswana has been able to secure only 60 000 doses of vaccines, 30 000 as donation as from the Indian government, while the other 30 000 was sourced through COVAX facility. Canada, has pre-ordered vaccines in surplus and it will be able to vaccinate each of its citizens six times over. In the UK and US, it is four vaccines per person; and two each in the EU and Australia.
For vaccines produced in Europe, developing countries are forced to pay double what European countries are paying, making it more expensive for already financially struggling economies. European countries however justify the price of vaccines and that they deserve to buy them cheap since they contributed in their development.
It is evident that vaccines cannot be made available immediately to all countries worldwide with wealthy economies being the only success story in that regard, something that has been referred to as a “catastrophic moral failure”, head of the World Health Organisation (WHO), Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus.
The challenge facing developing countries is not only the price, but also the capacity of vaccine manufactures to be able to do so to meet global demand within a short time. The proposal for a patent waiver by India and South Africa has been rejected by developed countries, known for hosting the world leading pharmaceutical companies such US, European Union, the United Kingdom, and Switzerland.
According to the Financial Times, US business groups including pharmaceutical industry representatives, have urged Biden to resist supporting a waiver to IP rules at the WTO, arguing that the proposal led by India and South Africa was too “vague” and “broad”.
The individuals who signed the letter, including Nobel laureates in economics as well as from across the arts and sciences, warned that inequitable vaccine access would impact the global economy and prevent it from recovering.
“The world saw unprecedented development of safe and effective vaccines, in major part thanks to US public investment,” the group wrote. “We all welcome that vaccination rollout in the US and many wealthier countries is bringing hope to their citizens.”
“Yet for the majority of the world that same hope is yet to be seen. New waves of suffering are now rising across the globe. Our global economy cannot rebuild if it remains vulnerable to this virus.” The group warned that fully enforcing IP was “self-defeating for the US” as it hindered global vaccination efforts. “Given artificial global supply shortages, the US economy already risks losing $1.3tn in gross domestic product this year.”