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“Fighting the Global Coal War”

Background

So much of the world’s growth over the past two hundred years has been due to the discovery and ever-increasing use of affordable energy derived from fossil fuels led by coal, followed by oil, and natural gas. This affordable and predominantly coal-fuelled energy drove industrial expansion, created millions of jobs, and generated wealth for a large portion of the global population.

There is a great deal of discussion led by a largely pseudo-scientific approach to global warming, which has reached almost ‘religion’ status, and the supposed dangers of carbon dioxide gas (CO2) released from fossil fuel combustion around the world, in particular from coal. In 1988, the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was set up to investigate and document the dangers associated with CO2 which is released from fossil fuel combustion, such as coal. Since then, many papers and articles have been written and international meetings held to see if agreements can be made to mitigate this supposed problem for our planet – a problem not fully defined, nor even proven to any level of certainty.

In this context, coal has been set up as the general ‘public enemy’ Number One. Coal is an easy target; by its very nature it’s black, dusty and dirty; with less powerful lobby groups and influencers than other sectors, such as oil and natural gas. These sectors are often much less visible to the public eye and easier to disguise and dismiss as threat or cause.

Targets have been set to reduce CO2 emissions for the near future; and programmes are being introduced in developed countries on how to meet them.  The goal? To shut down all coal burning power stations, followed by the source of the coal, the mines themselves. 

Stress on Developing Continents and Countries

There are still many developing countries, the rising stars of tomorrow’s industrial world that rely on this affordable source of power generation to power their growing industries and are now being forced to comply with western politically driven often unrealistic targets. These countries, many on the African continent, are now driven allocate a significant portion of their fiscus on CO2 mitigation and reduction defined and sold by them – targeting shutting down coal use in any form, while this expenditure could be put to better use and is urgently needed to develop the countries’ infrastructure and large-scale industrial business that can improve these economies and add to job creation, improve the health system and reduce environmental pollution of the air, water and soil by noxious emissions and effluents. 

Until a reliable, new and reasonably priced base-load source of energy is found, coal is required.

Quickly and drastically reducing the use of coal by a large percentage, as has been mandated by some developed economies and their governments, and the Paris Accord, creates a serious problem. It would have negative effects on the social welfare of so many people in the energy industry and related sectors and many millions more people’s lives will be threatened because funds that could be used in infrastructure and other developmental requirements are now being deployed for CO2 mitigation?

In 2016, the five biggest coal importers in the world were India, China, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. While the big five made up almost 70% or over 600 million tonnes of global imports, the Southeast Asia (SEA) market accounted for less than 8% or about 70 million tonnes of coal imports during the same period.  However, according to data released by the IEA for the period between 2017 and 2018, the SEA market has doubled in size.

The region’s key coal users and importers include Thailand, Malaysia, Philippines, Vietnam, and Indonesia. Even though Indonesia is the biggest coal exporter, supplying over 80% of the demand for the region, its domestic coal requirements are expected to impact the Asian demand and supply balance significantly in the coming decade by increasing its own demand. While Vietnam already appeared on the map in 2016, Myanmar will also play a bigger role in the near future as coal production rapidly increases.

“Electricity is increasing its share in total energy consumption and coal is increasing its share in power generation”, said Laszlo Varro, head of the gas, coal and power markets division for the International Energy Agency (IEA). The vast majority of the 400 GW in power generation capacity to be added in SEA by 2040 will be coal-fired. That will raise coal’s share of the SEA power market to 50% from roughly 32%, while natural gas declines to 26% from approximately 44%.

About 700 million people now live in SEA and the region is expanding quickly, especially in terms of energy demand and as a result electricity generation. IEA Southeast Asia predicts that population grows modestly to 760 million people by 2040 but urbanization increases from 46% today to 60% until then. The GDP per capita will almost triple until 2040, and this is where energy demand must step in.

As a result of this soaring energy demand, environmental pressures are increasing. At the same time, the carbon foot print of SEA is only a fraction of that of Europe and the USA.

The IEA also reports similar trends and shares of total energy consumption for the African continent which, in population terms roughly approximates SEA. With these similarities in mind, the IEA predicts that 120 million people in Southeast Asia lack electricity, while over 270 million rely on wood and dung for cooking and heating, pollutants in itself. “From 2013 to 2030, the SEA region’s primary energy demand will almost double or increase by at least 80%.” The IEA notes. The “power pie” or electricity demand increases from 790TWh to 2.210TWh from 2013 to 2040. 

That tripling in electricity demand will be primarily sourced from coal. Whilst renewables are expanding, their pace of growth is too slow to keep up with faster, more affordable thermal coal-fired power generation. Coal will be the fuel of choice. The material is easily available, the cheapest source of power and also the safest. All major SEA countries are constructing coal-fired power plants at a breath-taking pace.  We predict that with a 40GWe energy shortage already prevalent in Southern Africa, a similar trend will emerge if the 4th Industrial Revolution (4IR) is ever to gain traction in Africa.

Coal’s share of electricity generation is expected to increase from about one third today to reach 50% by 2040. This means that the SEA will pull up the global average for coal use and significantly contribute to coal continuing to be the power source for the developing world. Again, renewables, including hydro will also grow but the staggering increased power demand cannot be met economically without the use of easily available, low-cost and safe coal.

Renewable Energy Sources

New energy technologies are being funded and developed to counter the reliance on coal and coal-fired power stations. Solar panels, geothermal wells, wind farms and tidal turbines are being installed to produce electricity.  While these solutions are often portrayed as reliant green energy, geothermal and tidal turbines are only considered transient and cannot yet be used for base-load service which is driven mainly by coal; a key factor for a stable power to a city, town or industrial centre.

Solar produces no power at night and windmills only work when there is sufficient wind, while shutting down when the wind speed is too high. Thus, storage and re-distribution of extra power has become the key challenge. Only an advanced storage solution that can be applied on a global scale and is affordable, will allow for large-scale economic use of solar and wind power.  Coal fuelled power is steady, still relatively cheap and runs continuously 24 hours a day. Therefore, there might not be a way around coal fuels for many decades to come.

Key Forces Affecting Climate

The question we need to ask is, are we sure that this costly and drastic move away from coal just to reduce CO2 is urgently needed? What are the key forces that affect the Earth’s climate? Do higher CO2 levels not benefit plant growth and therefore are beneficial to our environment?

To answer this question, let us have a look at the Earth’s climate history over the past 400,000 years and the role of CO2. This contrasts with the typical 150-year time span depicted in global media and which is a major misdirect to garner public support.

The Fallacies of a Carbon Tax

To more rapidly reduce the use of fossil fuels, coal in particular; a $40/ton carbon tax was proposed and given serious consideration in Washington and similarly in other developed nations. This would affect mainly the use of coal and natural gas, oil, which make up 80% of the energy used in those countries. Based on the data available, this could be a big mistake which would force energy companies to close down otherwise productive coal fired power plants too early and increase the cost of power beyond what is economically viable.

Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) has also been proposed to remove CO2 from coal power plant exhaust, transport it by pipeline and inject and store it in state approved deep underground sites. It is estimated that CCS could double the base cost of electricity production from coal and other fossil fuels. This would be highly prohibitive, and the costs were to fall first on the public who depend on stable energy sources and as explained above, it serves no useful purpose for controlling climate change.

NB: Another key point about CO2 is that all plant life thrives in high CO2 environments and farmers routinely pump CO2 into greenhouses to 1.500 ppm CO2, which greatly increases growth rate. It is the key nutrient for all plant life and when it drops below 150 ppm, very few plants and animals can survive. Plants also handle drought conditions better as CO2 rises as they expire less water in the process of absorbing CO2, their principal food source.

If CO2 in the air were to double, their water needs would drop by 50%. This will be an enormous boon for agriculture everywhere especially in arid regions around the world and would support feeding our growing population. The CO2 content in the air in our homes is also much higher than outside and is safe to breathe. CO2 is not a pollutant but a vital basic building block of all life on Earth, on land and in the oceans.

Conclusion

Reviewing the available data makes clear that no significant global warming from re-radiated solar energy can be created by an increase in CO2 above current levels for which coal gets most of the blame. CO2 is beneficial for our environment and is not a pollutant. It benefits plant life by increasing biomass and thus improves the basis for all human life on Earth.  So, producing and burning coal using state of the art technology can still be a sustainable development solution.

The present warm period has lasted over 8000 years longer than any of the three prior ones, giving the oceans a much longer time to warm up and release more CO2 into the atmosphere, which would also contribute to the current level of 400 ppm.  This means that coal does not carry all the blame as is stated by socio-environmentalist groups and politicians.

According to IEA Climatologists and Oceanographers tripling the present value of CO2  to 1.200 ppm will not result in ocean acidification, as has been proposed by the socio-environmental political movement (most notably Al Gore), and the pH would be about 7,8 which is still a satisfactory alkaline level in which ocean life can flourish – as it did over most of geological history when CO2 levels were several times higher than those today and when no coal was being mined or burned.

Proposed Future Energy Development Plan

Of course, coal and fossil fuel sources have a limited useful time span and technological advancement will ensure that we will no longer rely on coal, possibly latest by 2200, 180 years away. We need to develop a well-planned economic, environmental and social introduction of viable and affordable new energy sources. We need to gradually change our social infrastructures and improve the lives of people and futures of whole towns, cities and regions in every country around the world. And the reason for this is not the CO2 that coal used as a fuel emits, but because there will be more efficient and fewer polluting ways of producing energy developed in the next two centuries.

It is recognised that there are real issues related to coal and other fossil fuels that need to be addressed such as groundwater contamination and smog from release of smoke particles, and corrosive gases containing sulphur, as well as safer storage of fly ash from coal combustion. That’s where our resources should be spent, and our ingenuity used to improve existing conditions.

The billions of dollars to be spent or better wasted on CO2 mitigation could – if employed elsewhere – truly make a difference to provide cheap clean coal technology driven energy sources of base load magnitude and thus improve the health of our planet and our populations economic development.

Alan M. Clegg Pr.Eng Pr.CPM PMP FSAIMM FIOQ F.Inst.D

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Botswana loses mineral resources to unwise investments 

24th November 2021
Botswana loses mineral resources to unwise investments

Botswana’s failure to diversify the economy away from mineral revenue could be coming back to haunt the southern African nation as there are strong signs that it is losing its mineral resources and revenue to a string of unwise investment practices. 

This is revealed in a report titled “Wealth Accounting in Botswana” released by the Ministry of Finance and Economic Development recently which shows that while the volatility in mineral resource depletion probably reflects the nature of the mining industry, which is subjected to uncertainties in the global markets for diamonds in particular; however, from 2015 to 2018, official figures show “that mineral resource depletion is rising and caching up (sic) with the rate at which capital stock is being accumulated.” 

The capital stock of a country is part of the national wealth which is reproducible, it consists of all resources which contributes to the production of goods and services. On the other hand, mineral resource depletion is the result of an excess of consumption over its production. 

While the report shows positive trends such as non-mining sector replacing the mining industry in contributing to economic growth and Botswana “increasing its overall asset base to offset the gradual depletion of its exhaustible natural resources,” it however, shows alarming trends.

Reads the report in part, “Generally, the growth of capital stock is declining overtime and it is even surprising to see that growth of capital stock at its replacement value is also declining overtime. This could also suggest the need to investigate the productive capacity of capital stock that the country invests in.”  

Furthermore, the report says, “this could suggest the need to investigate the quality of capital stock, since low quality capital stock is subjected to rapid wearing out, resulting in decline in the future economic benefits of investment.”

 Most likely, the report says, “this reflects unproductive investment by government in public infrastructure – for instance; infrastructure being over-priced, badly designed and poorly implemented and even badly selected/prioritised, with marginal investments that are unlikely to deliver significant benefits.” 

The report says Botswana’s fiscal strategy is to finance its recurrent spending through non-mining revenue, whereas development spending is intended to be financed through mineral revenues. “It is worth noting that when mineral revenue is used for development spending, it is derived from mineral resource depletion,” says the report says. It is therefore, the report says, important to track and see if the rate of depletion surpasses the rate at which capital stock is accumulated.

The report says Government allocates a significant portion of mineral revenues to development programmes, which include infrastructure development that forms part of capital stock. It says some of the factors which could be the cause of a declining rate of accumulation of capital stock could be associated with lack of prioritising spending. 

“It is indicated that during the period between 2012/13 and 2017/18, the rate at which actual spending on development programmes has been growing is less than the growth rate of budgets, indicating that underspending of budgets is an increasing problem. Underspending on development projects due to weak implementation capacity could be one cause of a declining rate of capital stock accumulation,” reveals the report. 

According to the report, as a mineral-led economy, Botswana has long aimed to transform its mineral revenues into other classes of assets, namely physical, human and financial capital. This is supported by fiscal policies in place. 

It says Botswana’s fiscal rule has been adopted in the country’s National Development Plan (NDP) 11. This rule, the report explains, plays a critical role by providing guidance on how much to consume and save to achieve macroeconomic stability in the short-run and support long-term fiscal sustainability. The report further explains that the fiscal rule states that 40 percent of mineral revenues would be saved in the form of financial assets for future generations, while the remainder would be invested in physical and human capital. 

“However, in reality, achieving the fiscal rule targets has been a challenge for the country, due to recurring budget deficits over the previous years,” says the report. It says official figures also show that the country experienced budget deficits during the entire reporting period (between 1994 and 2019).  

“Economic shocks that reduced the amount of mineral revenues, coupled with high government expenditure levels, have led to recurring budget deficits. Consequently, the government’s ability to save a portion of mineral revenues, as required by the fiscal rule, was severely compromised,” the report says.

On a positive note, the report says, Botswana’s economy generally grew at an average of 4.1 percent real GDP growth from 2012 to 2019 adding that this growth was mainly attributed to the non-mining sector, which has cushioned the country to some extent against external shocks1. For the past several years, the non-mining sector grew faster than the mining sector, with an average of 5.4 percent, the report reveals further. 

It says the slowed growth of the mining sector was due in part to the closure of BCL copper-nickel mine in 2016, which led to a reduction in total mining output in 2016/17. Continued risks associated with constrained growth in advanced as well as emerging and developing economies during this period, reduced the global demand for diamonds, which led to significant reductions in total mining contribution to GDP. On the other hand, the growth of the non-mining sector signifies the country’s efforts to diversify the economy away from minerals, the report says.  

Economic diversification, the report says, is key in natural resource-rich economies as it restricts the impact of the Dutch Disease – an economic phenomenon where the rapid development of one sector, particularly minerals, results in negative impact on the overall economy. Therefore, it says, prudent management of the country’s mineral resources and economic diversification have been a central objective of Botswana’s macro-fiscal policies.

The report notes that to date, the country has made strides in terms of achieving economic diversification goals. This, it says, is evidenced by the Trade, Hotels and Restaurant sector, which surpassed the Mining sector since 2017 onwards, in terms of contribution to value added, becoming the largest sector of the economy.

“However, in order to achieve sustainable economic growth, private sector-led growth should continue to be promoted to assist in addressing unemployment and poverty alleviation. Economic diversification also reduces macroeconomic volatility and disperse risks, such as commodity price volatility.

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Prosperity Index: Botswana improves slightly

24th November 2021
Prseident-Masisi

The 2021 Legatum Prosperity Index report indicates that Botswana ranks number 82nd globally out of 167 countries with a prosperity score of 57.1. Compared to the 2020 report, Botswana moved three places up from 85. However this is still lower than the country’s best ever score from 2011, when Botswana was ranked at number 80. 

According to the report from Legatum Institute, they had published a new report outlining a framework for natural transformation designed to help leaders as they make decisions to guide their nations on development pathway. The report said legatum Institute is a London -based think-tank with a bold vision to create a global movement of people committed to creating the pathways from poverty to prosperity and the transformation of society.

It states that Botswana performs most strongly in governance and economic quality but is weakest in natural environment, it further states that the biggest improvement compared to a decade ago came in economic equality.

The report suggests that Botswana ranks 4th in Sub-Saharan Africa out of 49 countries. The rank was based on inclusive societies which include; safety and security, personal freedom, governance and social capital. The rank also was based on open economies which includes; investment environment, enterprise conditions, infrastructure market and economic quality and lastly it was also inclusive of empowerment of the people; living conditions, health, education and natural environment.

The Legatum prosperity index report states that inclusive societies are an essential requirement for prosperity, where social and legal institution protects the fundamental freedom of individuals and their ability to flourish. Botswana is ranked 49th globally and 5th in Sub-Saharan region. On Safety and security the report states that a nation, community or society can prosper only in an environment of security and safety for its citizens, Botswana ranks 71st globally and 9th in Sub-Saharan Africa region on this category.

As for personal freedom, the report focused on basic legal rights, individual liberty, the absence of legal discrimination and the degree of social tolerance experienced in a society.  Botswana ranks 57th globally and 9th in Sub-Saharan Africa region.

Botswana is pegged at 38th place globally and 2nd in Sub-Saharan Region when it comes to governance. The Legatum report indicates that governance measures the extent to which there are checks and restraints on power and whether governments operate effectively and without corruption. It also states that the nature of a country’s governance has a material impact on its prosperity.

If there is one area where Botswana is struggling, it is social capital. The country ranks 111th globally and 24th in Sub –Saharan African region. The report states that social capital measures the personal and family relationships, social networks and the cohesion a society experiences when there is high institutional trust, and people respect and engage with one another, both of which have a direct effect on the prosperity of a country.

The report further states that under Open Economics Botswana ranks number 80 globally. The country still needs to encourage innovation and investment, promote business and trade and facilities as well as inclusive growth. Open economics includes; investment environment, enterprise conditions, infrastructure and market access, economic quality.

Botswana ranks 5th in Sub-Saharan African region and 72nd globally in investment environmental which measures the extent to which investments are protected adequately through the existence of property rights, investor protection and contract enforcement. The Prosperity Index report states that, the more a legal system protects investments, for example through property rights, the more that investment can drive economic growth.

The Legatum prosperity index ranked Botswana’s enterprise conditions 10th in Sub-Saharan Africa region and 82nd globally. It explains enterprise conditions as measures of how easy it is for businesses to start, compete and expand.

Botswana ranks 6th in Sub-Saharan African region and 105th globally in infrastructure and market access. The Legatum report explains that market access and infrastructure enables trade and inhibitors on the flow of goods and services between businesses hence economic growth.

Economic quality has been explained by the report as a measure of how robust the economy is as well as how the economy is equipped to generate wealth. The country ranks at the apex, 1st in sub-Saharan Africa region and 53rd globally.

The Legatum prosperity report indicated that states could generate prosperity through empowered people. Empowered people considers living conditions, health, education and natural environment. Botswana ranked 116th globally and 44th in the African region when it comes to empowering its people.

Living conditions as one of the components under empowered people, Botswana ranked 7th in sub-Saharan region and 114th globally. The institute indicated that Living Conditions measures whether a reasonable quality of life is extended to the whole population, which is necessary for a nation to be prosperous

Another component under empowered people is health. According to the institute, the coverage and accessibility of effective healthcare, combined with behaviors that sustain a healthy lifestyle, are critical to both individual and national prosperity. Botswana ranks 17th in the Sub-Saharan region and 131st globally.

Botswana ranks 5th in Sub-Saharan region when it comes to Education and ranks spot 101 globally. According to the report, a better-educated population also leads to greater civic engagement and improved social outcomes — such as better health and lower crime rates.

Lastly Botswana ranks very low on aspect of natural environment, pegged at number 116 globally and 44th in the sub-Saharan African region. The Legatum institute explains this category capturing parts of the physical environment that have a direct effect on people in their daily lives and changes that might impact the prosperity of future generations. The report further reads, “A well-managed natural environment benefits a nation by yielding crops, material for construction, wildlife and food, and sources of energy, while clean air leads to a higher quality of living for all”.

In conclusion, the 2021 prosperity index reveals that sub-Saharan Africa has been the bright light in the world of stagnation in prosperity. With its modest but consistent progress, despite the deterioration in the continent’s safety and security. “The prosperity of 40 out of 49 countries improved over a decade, and the rate of extreme poverty has dropped across the region from 49.9 %to 42.3% of the population, much of the progress has to be driven by steady improvements in Health and in infrastructure” the report said. The Legatum Institute’s 2021 Prosperity Index has found that in Sub-Saharan Africa “prosperity has improved for the 11th year in a row” with the rate of extreme poverty falling from 49.9% to 42.3%.

Mauritius continues to prove itself as a beacon of prosperity in Africa, making it to the top 50 of seven of the index pillars. Second in the region Seychelles ranked number 50, Cabo Verde at number 80, Botswana 82nd, South Africa 85th and last both in Africa and the entire report South Sudan at 167th.

In her Foreword of the report, Baroness Philippa Stroud, CEO of the Legatum Institute states that; “Prosperity is built by deliberate choices to develop a society that works for everyone — an inclusive society, with a strong social contract that protects the fundamental liberties and security of each individual. It is driven by an open economy that harnesses the ideas and talents of the people of a nation.

This in turn builds an enabling environment for all to flourish by fulfilling their unique potential and playing their part in strengthening their families, communities, and nations. A prosperous society is not just about what we’re getting, but about who we are becoming — individually and together. The Prosperity Index acts as a spotlight on what builds prosperity or conversely what causes poverty.

It tracks the rise and fall of prosperity over time and captures the outcomes of decisions that either build or destroy prosperity. When we look at what is happening across the nations of the world, this year’s Legatum Prosperity Index shows that global prosperity is stagnating. However, this stagnation is not simply a result of the recent impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.”

Globally, the 2021 Legatum Prosperity Index reveals that “prosperity has plateaued for the second year running” and this is the result of weakening personal freedoms, specifically Freedom of Speech and Freedom of Assembly.

The Index identifies that whilst “COVID-19 has undoubtedly had a short-term impact on prosperity”, the pandemic has not been solely responsibly. “The past decade has seen the increasing suppression of the core liberties which underpin true prosperity.”

According to the 2021 Index, the “key area of concern”, where this suppression is taking place, is the “ongoing deterioration in political accountability and freedom of speech and assembly in most regions of the world”. In the last decade 72% of all nations have seen a decline in freedom of speech.

The report says in 100 countries around the world both freedom of expression and freedom of assembly deteriorated over the last decade. This has significant implications for global prosperity.

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Inflation up again, rose to 8.8 percent October 

24th November 2021
Inflation

Botswana’s headline inflation took a turn back into the upward trajectory in the month of October after a decline in September. Figures released by Statistics Botswana on Monday reveal that  headline inflation rose from 8.4 percent in September to 8.8 percent in October 2021, which is above the upper bound of the Bank of Botswana‘s medium-term objective range of 3 – 6 percent.

This is also substantially higher than the 2.2 percent recorded in the month October last year 2020.  The increase in inflation between September and October 2021 mainly reflects the upward adjustment in domestic fuel prices in October 2021, as reflected by the annual price changes for Transport (from 17.5 to 19.3 percent).

Meanwhile, there were partially offsetting movements in the annual price changes for some categories of goods and services, while for a few, prices remained stable.  Annual price changes for the following categories of goods and services also increased: Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages (from 6.4 to 6.8 percent); Restaurants and Hotels (from 3.8 to 4.1 percent); Clothing and Footwear (from 3.7 to 3.8 percent); Health (from 2.8 to 2.9 percent); and Miscellaneous Goods and Services (from 7.3 to 7.4 percent).

However, the upward pressure on inflation was partially offset by inflation falling with respect to: Communication (from 1.5 to 1 percent); Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco (from 9 to 8.8 percent); and Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels (from 8.3 to 8.2 percent). Inflation remained unchanged for: Furnishing, Household Equipment and Routine Maintenance (5 percent); Recreation and Culture (4.3 percent); and Education (2.8 percent).

Similarly, the 16 percent trimmed mean inflation and inflation excluding administered prices increased from 8 percent and 7.1 percent to 8.2 percent and 7.2 percent, in the same period. The inflation rates for regions between September 2021 and October 2021 revealed that the Rural Villages’ inflation rate stood at 8.6 percent in October, showing a rise of 0.6 of a percentage point on the September rate of 8.0 percent.

The Urban Villages’ inflation rate was 9.0 percent in October compared to the September rate of 8.6 percent, while the Cities & Towns inflation rate rose by 0.3 of a percentage point, from 8.4 percent in September to 8.7 percent In October.

The national Consumer Price Index went up by 0.9 percent in October 2021, from 112.3 registered in September 2021 to 113.3. The Rural Villages’ index recorded a growth of 1.1 percent, from 111.1 in September to 112.4 in October.

The Urban Villages’ index advanced from 112.9 in September to 113.8 in October 2021, a rise of 0.9 percent, whereas the Cities & Towns’ Index moved from 112.4 to 113.3, an increase of 0.8 percent. The group indices were generally moving at a steady pace between September and October 2021, recording changes of less than 1.0 percent, except the Transport group index, which recorded 3.0 percent.

The Transport group index recorded a rise of 3.0 percent, from 114.0 in September to 117.5 in October. This was attributed to a growth in the constituent section index of Operation of Personal Transport (5.2 percent) and purchase of Vehicles (1.2 percent). The increase in the Operation of Personal Transport section index was attributed to the rise in retail pump prices for petrol (95) by P0.71 and diesel (50ppm) by P0.55 per litre, which effected on the 8th of October 2021.

The Alcoholic Beverages &Tobacco index group registered a growth of 0.5 percent, from 120.1 in September to 120.8 in October 2021. This was due to an increase in the constituent section index of Alcoholic Beverages (0.6 percent) and Tobacco (0.3 percent).

The Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages group index moved from 113.5 to 114.0, recording a rise of 0.4 percent. This was owing to the general increase in the constituent section indices, notably; Oils & Fats (1.8 percent), Vegetables (0.9 percent), Sugar, Jam, Honey, Chocolate & Confectionery (0.7 percent) and Food not elsewhere classified (0.7 percent).

The Clothing and Footwear group registered a rise of 0.4 percent, from 107.4 in September to 107.8 in October 2021. The increase was attributed to the general increase in the constituent section indices. The Restaurants & Hotels index group registered an increase of 0.4 percent, from 109.1 in September to 109.6 in October 2021. The rise was due to the rise of the constituent section index of Restaurants, Cafes and the Like by 0.5 percent.

The All-Tradeables index was 114.7 in October 2021, recording a rise of 1.4 percent from 113.0 in September 2021. The Imported Tradeables Index increased from 112.5 in September to 114.6 in October 2021, a rise of 1.9 percent.

The Domestic Tradeables Index realised an increase of 0.3 percent from 114.4 in September to 114.7 in October. The Non-Tradeables Index moved from 111.4 in September to 111.5 in October, an increase of 0.1 percent. The All-Tradeables inflation rate was 12.0 percent in October 2021, recording a rise of 0.7 of a percentage.

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