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Khama warned against forming new party

A South African based consultancy firm (name known to this publication) that is carrying out a clandestine research on the hostility between President Mokgweetsi Masisi and his predecessor Lt Gen Ian Khama has released the initial findings regarding the two leaders’ relationship and the way forward.

The study which began three months ago was focused on four key areas; offering political intelligence to Khama and aligned members, possibilities of forming a new party, viability of Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) independent candidates surviving outside the party, and lastly uniting BDP after elections (if Pelonomi Venson-Moitoi could have won in Kang).

The research is financed mostly by Khama’s business allies who have developed interest in the animosity since the end results could leave them with un-imaginable repercussions. This publication has also established that the engaged firm was also tasked with facilitating Khama’s media engagement in South Africa last month while enroute to India to meet Tibetan spiritual leader Dalai Lama.

The research firm has looked at the possibilities of Khama aiding the formation of a new party, a thought which Khama and associates long considered. However the report findings shot the idea down highlighting a number of stumbling blocks. ”Khama cannot lead a new party in case he is accused of plotting what one Minister, Unity Dow referred to as a Putin strategy to return to power,” the report indicates.

The findings further posits that with only six months to elections a new party will need to be organised and resourced to make impact in the elections. In addition the report says it is unclear whether the new party will be part of coalition or go it alone. “For the party to be of significant force it will have to rely on BDP members sympathetic to Khama to make a bulk of its leadership and rank and file. The viability of a new party will have to be studied in more depth.”

According to the report the two presidents have reached a point where reconciliation is close to impossible and “attempts to bring them together to reach a truce have failed and they seem to be heading to the cliff edge.” With that, Khama should try by all means to meet Masisi personally or through emissaries. “This is for a truce to be negotiated in the interest of both men and for the sake of the party,” highlights the report.

In the past Khama had made it clear that he would like to meet Masisi privately. This was after many attempts by Masisi to engage his predecessor through the BDP elders committee which the former leader blatantly rejected. The research says with Masisi having registered a hollow victory in Kang, achieved through the price of manipulation, intimidation and abuse of state resource and assets, he may be amenable to a settlement in order to turn his attention to the general elections.

“A big question mark is would Masisi’s conciliatory stance be genuine or only meant to buy him peace for purpose of the election after which he will return to haunt Khama. Our analysis is that for Masisi’s project to become a success, Khama and his associates must continuously be vilified and portrayed in the eyes of the nation as the perennial enemies of the nation,” study observed.

The study which is still ongoing also looked at the possibilities of Khama resigning from the BDP. “In this role he will be less handicapped in carrying out his community upliftment programmes which appears to be another source of the fallout with Masisi who seems to be a man not prepared to share the limelight with anyone, least of all his immediate predecessor,” explains the report findings.

Masisi in the report is said to have developed a charm campaign aimed at cancelling Khama’s role and contributions to the nation by typecasting him as a disreputable individual. It also continues to say; “Masisi’s actions against Khama point to a crafty and calculating individual who had a detailed plan of what he would do as soon as he took over national leadership.”

All the while it is said Khama can still resign from BDP and support opposition candidates well-disposed to him without him seeking return to office in the case of a change of government. “The new government and Khama will be a subject of negotiations and agreements before any commitments can be made.”

This report says all these are based on affection many Batswana have on Khama. “Footage of his community upliftment visits to communities show a man magnetism and is still able to rouse the crowds. It is unlikely his predecessors could retain the appeal Khama still does.”

OF KHAMA SUPPORTING INDEPENDENT CANDIDATES

The compilation also looked at the possibility of Khama supporting independent candidates comprising mainly BDP members who allege to have been cheated in the primary elections. “In carefully selected constituencies, at local government and parliamentary level, independent candidates with enough support can win against BDP official candidates hostile to Khama. If they fail they can take away enough votes for opposition to possibly win the constituencies in question.

The biggest loser in this scenario will be Masisi,” report says. The report findings say this is based on Khama’s loyal following from his chieftainship territory. The study nonetheless concedes that it is impossible for everyone in the areas of royal jurisdiction to support the paramount chief as already evidenced by activists in the territory backing Masisi.

“But as a decidedly rural territory, we are confident Khama’s support for independents and selected opposition candidates can tilt the scales in areas where were previously impregnable if he reaches out to the multitudes who still regard him as a chief than a political party.” A separate thorough feasibility study of individual constituencies in which support will be given to independents and opposition candidates will have to be done, advises the research.

REPORT SAYS MOITOI SHOULD HAVE LONG WITHDRAWN

The Kang congress held earlier this month was also within the research scope and it has long advised that; “Moitoi must pull out the convention because preparations for the presidential elections have been heavily manipulated in favour of the incumbent.” The manipulation according to the report occurred when Masisi’s loyalists manipulated the processes at local levels where electors for the convention are chosen.  Masisi and his campaigners enjoyed state media coverage which was supplemented by abuse of state transport including aeroplanes which ferried incumbent’s mobilisers.

“Campaign field was completely tilted in favour of incumbent who was permitted to address members of the party across the country. The few attempts by Moitoi to do likewise have been met with threats and intimidation from BDP administration which is run by incumbent’s operatives,” the researchers found out. Elections board chairman’s endorsement of Masisi, failure to avail voters roll which the report says it was unfair and even low by African standards of dirty politics and cheating were enough signs that Moitoi will not win, says the report.

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Jackdish Shah loses interest in BDP

17th May 2022
Jackdish

As the preparations for the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) congress are about to kick off, reports on the ground suggest that the party’s Deputy Treasurer Jackdish Shah will not defend the position in August as he contemplates relocation.

According to sources, the businessman who joined the BDP Central Committee in 2015 at the 36th Congress held in Mmadinare is ready to leave the party’s politburo. It is said he long made up his mind not to defend the position last year. A prominent businessman, Shah, when he won the position to assist Satar Dada in 2015 was expected to improve the party’s financial vibrancy. By then the party was under the leadership of Ian Khama.

According to close sources, Shah long decided not to contest because he has fallen out of favour with the party leadership. It is said he took the decision after some prominent businessmen who are BDP members and part of football syndicate decided to push him out and they used their proximity to President Mokgweetsi Masisi to badmouth him hence the decision.

“The fight at the Botswana Football Association (BFA) and Botswana Football League (BFL) has left him alone in the desert and some faces there used their close access to the President to isolate him,” said a source. Media reports say, Shah does not see eye to eye with BFA President MacLean Letshwiti who is also Masisi’s buddy hence the decision.

BFL Chairman Nicholas Zackhem is said to be not in good terms with Shah, who at one point Chaired the then Botswana Premier League (BPL). “He is seriously considering quitting because of what is unfolding at the team (Township Rollers) which is slowly not making financial gains and might be relegated and he wants to sell while it is still worth the investment,” said a highly placed source.

Shah is a renowned businessman who runs internet providing company Zebra net, H &G, game farm in Kasane, cattle farm in Ghanzi region and lot of properties in Gaborone. He also has two hotels in USA, his advisors have given him thumbs up on the possible decision of relocating provided he does not sell some of the investments that are doing well.

Asked about whether he will be contesting Shah could not confirm nor deny the reports. It is said for now it is too early as a public decision will have to be taken after the national council meeting and prior to the national congress. “As a BDP Central Committee member he cannot make that announcement now,” a BDP source said.

BDP is expected to assemble for the National Council during the July holidays while the National Congress is billed for August. It is then that the party will elect a new CC members. The last time BDP held elective congress was at Kang in 2019. The party is yet to issue writ.

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Govt ignores own agreements to improve public service

17th May 2022
Govt

The government has failed to implement some commitments and agreements that it had entered into with unions to improve conditions of public servants.

Three years after the government and public made commitments aimed at improving conditions of work and services it has emerged that the government has ignored and failed to implement all commitments on conditions of service emanating from the 2019 round of negotiations.

In its position paper that saw public service salaries being increased by 5%, the government the government has also signalled its intention to renege on some of the commitments it had made.
“Government aspires to look into all outstanding issues contained in the Labour Agreement signed between the Employer and recognised Trade Union on the 27th August 2019 and that it be reviewed, revised and delinked by both Parties with a view to agree on those whose implementation that can be realistically executed during the financial years 2022/23, 2023/24 and 2024/25 respectively,” the government said.

Furthermore, in addition to reviewing, revising and de-linking of the outstanding issues contained in the Collective Labour Agreement alluded to above and taking on a progressive proposal, government desires to review revise, develop and implement human resource policies as listed below during the financial year 2022/23,2023/24,2024/25

They include selection and appointment policy, learning and development policy, transfer guidelines, conditions of service, permanent and pensionable, temporary and part time, Foreign Service, expatriate and disciplinary procedures.

In their proposal paper, the unions which had proposed an 11 percent salary increase but eventually settled for 5% percent indicated that the government has not, and without explanation, acted on some of the key commitments from the 2019/2020 and 2021/22 round of negotiations.  The essential elements of these commitments include among others the remuneration Policy for the Public Service.

The paper states that a Remuneration Policy will be developed to inform decision making on remuneration in the Public Service. It is envisaged that consultations between the government and relevant key stakeholders on the policy was to start on 1st September 2019, and the development of the policy should be concluded by 30th June 2020.

The public sector unions said the Remuneration Policy is yet to be developed. The Cooperating Unions suggested that the process should commence without delay and that it should be as participatory as it was originally conceived. Another agreement relate to Medical Aid Contribution for employees on salary Grades A and B.

The employer contribution towards medical aid for employees on salary Grades A and B will be increased from 50% to 80% for the Standard Option of the Botswana Public
“Officers’ Medical Aid Scheme effective 1st October 2019; the cooperating unions insist that, in fulfilling this commitment, there should be no discrimination between those on the high benefit and those on the medium benefit plan,” the unions proposal paper says.

Another agreement involves the standardisation of gratuities across the Public Service. “Gratuities for all employees on fixed term contracts of 12 months but not exceeding 5 years, including former Industrial class employees be standardized at 30% across the Public Service in order to remove the existing inequalities and secure long-term financial security for Public Service Employees at lower grades with immediate effect,” the paper states.

The other agreement signed by the public sector unions and the government was the development of fan-shaped Salary Structure. The paper says the Public Service will adopt a best practice fan-shaped and overlapping structure, with modification to suit the Botswana context. The Parties (government and unions) to this agreement will jointly agree on the ranges of salary grades to allow for employees’ progression without a promotion to the available position on the next management level.

“The fan-shaped structure is envisaged to be in place by 1st June 2020, to enable factoring into the budgetary cycle for the financial year 2021/22,” the unions’ proposal paper states. It says the following steps are critical, capacity building of key stakeholders (September – December 2019), commission remuneration market survey (3 months from September to November 2019), design of the fan-shaped structure (2 to 3 months from January to March2020) and consultations with all key stakeholders (March to April 2020).

The unions and government had also signed an agreement on performance management and development: A rigorous performance management and reward system based on a 5-point rating system will be adopted as an integral part of the operationalization of the new Remuneration System.

Performance Management and Development (PMD) will be used to reward workers based on performance. The review of the Performance Management System was to be undertaken in order to close the gaps identified by PEMANDU and other previous reports on PMS between 1st September 2019 and 30th June 2020 as follows; internal process to update and revise the current Performance Management System by January 2020.

A job evaluation exercise in the Public Service will also be undertaken to among others establish internal equity, and will also cover the grading of all supervisory positions within the Public Service.
Another agreement included overtime Management. The Directorate of Public Service Management (DPSM) was to facilitate the conclusion of consultations on management of overtime, including consideration of the Overtime Management Task Team’s report on the same by 30th November 2019.

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Health Expert rejects ‘death rates’ links to low population growth

17th May 2022
Health-Expert

A public health expert, Dr Edward Maganu who is also the former Permanent Secretary in the Ministry of Health has said that unlike many who are expressing shock at the population census growth decline results, he is not, because the 2022 results represents his expectations.

He rushed to dismiss the position by Statistics Botswana in which thy partly attributes the low growth rates to mortality rates for the past ten years. “I don’t think there is any undercounting. I also don’t think death rates have much to do with it since the excessive deaths from HIV/AIDS have been controlled by ARVs and our life expectancy isn’t lower than it was in the 1990s,” he said in an interview with this publication post the release of the results.

Preliminary results released by Statistics Botswana this week indicated that Botswana’s population is now estimated to be 2,346,179 – a figure that the state owned data agency expressed worry over saying it’s below their projected growth. The general decline in the population growth rate is attributed to ‘fertility’ and ‘mortality’ rates that the country registered on the past ten years since the last census in 2011.

Maganu explained that with an enlightened or educated society and the country’s total fertility rate, there was no way the country’s population census was going to match the previous growth rates.
“The results of the census make sense and is exactly what I expected. Our Total Fertility Rate ( the average number of children born to a woman) is now around 2.

This is what happens as society develops and educates its women. The enlightened women don’t want to bear many children, they want to work and earn a living, have free time, and give their few children good care. So, there is no under- counting. Census procedures are standard so that results are comparable between countries.

That is why the UN is involved through UNFPA, the UN Agency responsible for population matters,” said Maganu who is also the former adviser to the World Health Organisation. Maganu ruled out undercounting concerns, “I see a lot of Batswana are worried about the census results. Above is what I have always stated.”

Given the disadvantages that accompany low population for countries, some have suggested that perhaps a time has come for the government to consider population growth policies or incentives, suggestions Maganu deems ineffective.

“It has never worked anywhere. The number of children born to a woman are a very private decision of the woman and the husband in an enlightened society. And as I indicated, the more the women of a society get educated, the higher the tendency to have fewer children. All developed countries have a problem of zero population growth or even negative growth.

The replacement level is regarded as 2 children per woman; once the fertility level falls below that, then the population stops growing. That’s why developed countries are depending so much on immigration,” he said.

According to him, a lot of developing countries that are educating their women are heading there, including ourselves-Botswana. “Countries that have had a policy of encouraging women to have more children have failed dismally. A good example is some countries of Eastern Europe (Romania is a good example) that wanted to grow their populations by rewarding women who had more children. It didn’t work. The number of children is a very private matter,” said Maganu

For those who may be worried about the impact of problems associated with low growth rate, Maganu said: “The challenge is to develop society so that it can take care of its dependency ratio, the children and the aged. In developed countries the ratio of people over 60 years is now more than 20%, ours is still less than 10%.”

The preliminary results show that Mogoditshane with (88,098) is now the biggest village in the country with Maun coming second (85,293) and Molepolole at third position with 74,719. Population growth is associated with many economic advantages because more people leads to greater human capital, higher economic growth, economies of scale, the efficiency of higher population density and the improved demographic structure of society, among many others.

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