The results of the Bank of Botswana Business Survey suggest that firms were optimistic about economic activity in the second quarter of 2019. Overall, businesses expected an increase in sales, capacity utilisation and profits in the second and third quarter of 2019.
“Firms intended to increase investment in buildings, plant and machinery, vehicles and equipment, and ‘other’ category, despite anticipating tight access to credit in the domestic market. Meanwhile, firms expect cost pressure to rise in the third quarter of 2019, mainly reflecting the anticipated upward pressure on costs of materials, wages and transport. However, firms expect inflation to remain stable and within the Bank’s medium-term objective range of 3 – 6 percent going forward,” reads the report.
This Report presents results of the survey carried out in the second quarter of 2019, covering the second quarter of 2019 (Q2:2019 – the current period); the third quarter (Q3:2019); and M12, the twelve-month period from July 2019 – June 2020 (Q3:2019-Q2:2020). The survey samples 100 businesses from eight economic sectors and these are: agriculture; mining; manufacturing; water and electricity; construction; trade; transport and communications, and business services. The response rate for this survey is 82 percent.
Economic Growth is expected to be lower in 2019, than in 2018
Meanwhile Firms are less optimistic about economic performance in 2019 expecting a growth of 3.8 percent, which is less than the projection of 4.2 percent made in the 2019 Budget Speech and the 4.5 percent growth in 2018. According to the Survey, it was expected that economic activity in the second quarter of 2019 would be mainly driven by mining and quarrying; finance and business services; and a combination of trade, hotels restaurants and transport and communications sectors.
“The optimism in mining and quarrying, and the trade, hotels and restaurants and the transport and communications sectors could be attributable to the positive prospects for global demand, sales and prices for diamonds, as well as the improvement in tourism prospects,” says the Business Survey report. On the other hand, construction was the only sector which anticipated business conditions to remain unchanged in the second quarter of 2019.
“This is possibly due to the slowdown in the construction of projects since the completion of some major construction works (such as the Botswana Unified Revenue Services building in the Gaborone Central Business District and various Economic Stimulus Programme projects) and the lower rate of increase in funds allocated for development in the current financial year. Meanwhile, all sectors, led the by trade, hotels and restaurants and the transport and communications sectors anticipate improved economic activity in the third quarter of 2019 and the year to June 2020.”
Overall, business conditions are expected to remain positive during the second quarter of 2019, with the level of optimism at 52 percent. However, optimism eases to 48 percent in the third quarter of 2019 and 47 percent, in the twelve-month period to June 2020. Firms, mainly in mining and retail trade, hotels and restaurants intended to increase investment in buildings, plant and machinery, and vehicles and equipment during the second quarter of 2019. Furthermore, firms had also anticipated to increase: capacity/resource utilisation; production/service capacity; sales; and profitability during the same period.
According to the Survey, Firms intend to lower their levels of investment in the third quarter of 2019, possibly due to the expected dampening effect arising from the perceived tight access to credit. Furthermore, firms anticipate reduced levels of stocks/inventories in the third quarter of 2019. “The domestic market-oriented firms were confident about business conditions in the second quarter of 2019 and the optimism improves in the third quarter of 2019 and the twelve-month period to June 2020 (M12).
Confidence in the domestic market-oriented firms is mainly driven by trade, hotels and restaurants, transport and communications and the finance and business services sectors. Export market-oriented firms are more optimistic about the third quarter of 2019 compared to other periods of the survey especially those engaged in the manufacturing business.”
Domestic lending rates and borrowing are expected to rise in the year to June 2020
Firms expect the lending rates and the volume of borrowing from all markets (domestic South African and elsewhere to increase in the twelve-month period to June 2020. Notwithstanding the expected increase in lending rates, the anticipated increase in borrowing volumes is consistent with the expected rise in investment, especially in buildings. Firms in the domestic and export-oriented markets perceived access to credit to have been tight in the second quarter of 2019, mainly because they consider the cost of credit to have been high in the period.
During the year ending in June 2020, there is an inclination among firms, especially those targeting the domestic market, to borrow from domestic creditors, the Survey has found. “Conversely, export oriented firms tend to prefer to borrow from the international markets other than South Africa Looking at factors that affect borrowing decisions, most of the firms which indicated preference to borrow from a particular market (domestic, South Africa and elsewhere), cited the availability of the required loan products in the respective markets as the basis for their choice. Affordability and accessibility of credit facilities influenced borrowing plans of about 30 percent of businesses irrespective of whether funds are to be sourced from Botswana or abroad.”
According to the Survey the majority of firms prefer to finance their business operations from retained earnings and loans. Retained earnings as a source of finance is more prominent in the trade, hotels and restaurants, and the transport and communications sectors. On the other hand, most of the firms in manufacturing, finance and business services and the construction sectors plan to fund their businesses through loans.
Pressure from rising costs expected to increase in the third quarter of 2019
“Overall, there is a strong expectation of cost escalation in the third quarter of 2019, attributable to the expected rise in wages and cost of materials and transport. Firms’ expectations about domestic inflation have generally been on a downward trend since 2013, and within the Bank’s inflation objective range of 3 – 6 percent since 2014. Furthermore, uncertainty about future inflation has generally declined as shown by the narrowing standard deviation (std dev) from the average expectations. Firms’ inflation expectations for 2019 average 3.6 percent, suggesting that inflation expectations are well anchored within the Bank’s objective range.”
Lack of external financing is perceived to be a major challenge to doing business
Meanwhile a number of firms (predominantly market-oriented ones) across various sectors, cited the difficulty in accessing financing from abroad as the greatest challenge to their business operations in the second quarter of 2019. “The second major business impediment is shortage of raw materials, commonly cited by the manufacturing sector, followed by construction and trade, hotels, restaurants and transport and communications.”
On the positive side, the political climate, domestic demand and the current exchange rate are viewed as being the most supportive factors to doing business in Botswana during the second quarter of 2019. Another observation is that water and electricity sub-sectors reportedly contribute positively to economic activity. There are ongoing efforts to improve the supply of these utilities through measures such as the implementation of the North-South Carrier 2 water project and the North-West Transmission Grid electricity connection. Overall, firms are confident about business conditions in the second quarter of 2019.
However, the level of optimism declines in the third quarter of 2019, consistent with the anticipated higher cost pressures. Firms expect the economy to grow by 3.8 percent in 2019, lower than the 4.2 percent projection stated in the 2019 Budget Speech. Furthermore, on average, firms expect inflation to be slightly below 4 percent, which is consistent with the Bank’s projection that inflation will remain within the objective range of 3 – 6 percent in the medium term.
Botswana Stock Exchange (BSE) moved swiftly this week to suspend BBS Limited from trading its securities following a brawl between Board of Directors and Managing Director, Pius Molefe, which led to corporate governance crisis at the organisation.
In an interesting series of events that unfolded this week, incumbent board Chairperson, Pelani Siwawa-Ndai moved to expel Molefe together with board Secretary, Sipho Showa, who also doubles up as Head of Marketing and Communications. It is reported that Siwawa-Ndai in her capacity as the board Chairperson wrote letters of dismissals to Molefe and Showa.
Following receipt of letters, the duo sought and was furnished with legal opinion from Armstrong Attorneys advising them that their dismissals were unlawful hence they were told to continue to report to work and carry out their duties.
Documents seen by BusinessPost articulate that in the meeting which was held on the 1st of April, the five outgoing board members, unlawfully took resolutions to extend their contracts by a further 90 days after April 30 2021 as they face tough competition from five other candidates who had expressed interest to run for the elections.
Moreover, at the said meeting, management explained that neither management nor the board have the authority to decline nominations submitted by shareholders or the interested parties which is in line with Companies Act and also BBS Limited constitution.
Molefe also revealed that as management they cautioned the board that it was conflicted and it would be improper for it to influence the election process as it seems they intended to do so. “Nonetheless, in a totally unprecedented move in the history of BBSL, the board then collectively passed the unlawful resolutions below. Leading to the illegitimate decisions, the board had brazenly directed that its discussions on the Board elections should not be recorded totally violating sound corporate governance,” reads the statement released by management this week.
When giving their legal advice, Armstrong Attorneys noted that notice for the AGM should state individuals proposed to be elected to the board and directors have no legal authority to prevent the process.
Armstrong Attorneys also noted that, “due process” cited by board members are simply to ensure that the five retiring Directors avoid competition from interested candidates to be appointed to the BBS Limited board. The law firm further opined that the resolution of the 90 day extension of term of the five directors pending re-election or election was unlawful.
Molefe expressed with regret that BBS has been suspended from trading by BSE until the current matter has been resolved. “I am concerned by this development and other potentially harmful actions on the business. As management, we are engaging with stakeholders to mitigate any negative impact on BBS Limited,” expressed a distressed Molefe.
He assured shareholders and the rest of Management that they are working very hard to ensure that the issues are being dealt with in a mature manner. BBS which hopes to become the first indigenous commercial bank has seen its shares halted barely four months after BSE lifted the trading suspension of shares for BBS following submission of their published 2019 audited financial statements.
According to Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of the local bourse, Thapelo Tsheole said the halting of shares of BBSL is to maintain fair, efficient and orderly securities trading environment. “The securities have been suspended to allow BBS to provide clarity to the market concerning the recent allegations which have been brought to the attention of the BSE relating to the company’s Board of Directors and senior management,” said Tsheole.
Meanwhile in their audited financial statements for the year ended 31 December 2020, BBS recorded a loss of P14.6 million as at 31 December 2020 compared to the loss of P35.7 million for the comparative year ended 31 December 2019. According to Molefe the year under review was the most challenging for the bank, its shareholders and customers endured the difficult economic environment and the negative impact of the coronavirus.
He revealed that as the bank, they were forced to put in place several measures to ensure that the business withstands the impact of coronavirus and also to cushion mortgage customers from the effects of the pandemic. “Since April 2020 up to the end of December 2020, BBS assisted 555 mortgage customers with a payment holiday,’’ he said.
This is the bank whose total balance sheet declined by 12 percent from P4, 626 billion for the year ended. 31 December 2019 to P4, 088 billion as at 31 December 2020. As if things were not bad enough, total savings and deposits at the bank declined by 14 percent from a balance of P2, 885 billion as at 31 December 2019 to P2, 494 billion as at 31 December 2020.
On a much brighter side, BBSL mortgage loans and advances improved from P3, 401 billion to P3.408 billion with impairment allowance significantly improving to P78, 648 million from P102, 532 million for the year under review, representing a positive variance of 23 percent. BBS maintained a strong capital base with capital adequacy ratios of 26.32% for the year ended 31 December 2020.
Molefe was optimistic and anticipated a positive outcome during the implementation of the new BBS corporate strategy, whose main drive is commercialization of operations, which is in full force. “It will be spurred on by the positive results we have achieved for the year ended 31 December 2020, and our planned submission of our banking license application to Bank of Botswana which we anticipate to operate as a commercial bank in the third quarter of 2021,” he alluded.
Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of Premium Nickel Resources Botswana (PNRB), Montwedi Mphathi, has said his company will resuscitate the formerly owned BCL assets and deliver a new, sustainable and cutting edge mining operation.
The new mine which will leverage on modern and next generation technology, will be environmentally sensitive and cognisant of the needs of its people and that of the communities around the area of influence.
In a statement last week, Premium Nickel Resources Botswana and its parent company, the Canadian headquartered Premium Nickel Resources announced that they have now completed the Exclusivity Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with the Liquidator.
The MOU will govern a six-month exclusivity period to complete its due diligence and related purchase agreements on the Botswana nickel-copper-cobalt (Ni-Cu-Co) assets formerly operated by BCL Limited (BCL), that are currently in liquidation.
On February 10, 2021, Lefoko Moagi, the Minister of Mineral Resources, Green Technology and Energy Security of Botswana, affirmed in Parliament a press release by the Liquidator for the BCL Group of Companies, stating that PNR was selected as the preferred bidder to acquire assets formerly owned by BCL.
“This is encouraging for the company and for Botswana. Our ambition in this new project dubbed “Tsholofelo” is to redevelop the former BCL assets into a modern, environmentally sensitive, efficient NI-Cu-Co-water producer where sustainability and the people are at the forefront of the decisions we make,” said Mphathi in a statement last Thursday.
“We also understand that no matter how successful we are at building the “New BCL” , our success will only be measured at our ability to create local wealth , skills and support the continued transition of local economy to a longer term sustainable base.”
The next step during the exclusivity period will be the completion of the definitive agreement. Simultaneous to this the PNRB will be conducting additional investigative work on site to further its understanding of the potential of these assets.
Specifically the company will complete an environmental assessment, a metallurgical study, a review of legal and social responsibilities, a review of the mine closure and rehabilitation plans and an on-site inspection of the legacy mining infrastructure and equipment that has been under care and maintenance.
Mphathi said they continue to monitor the global Covid-19 developments noting that they are committed to working with health and safety authorities as a priority and in full respect of all government and local Covid-19 protocol requirements. PNRB has developed Covid-19 travel, living and working protocols in anticipation of moving forward to on site due diligence.
“We will integrate these protocols with the currently applicable protocols of Ministry of Health & Wellness as well as District Health Management Team ( DHMT) and surrounding communities,” reads a statement released by the Gaborone based Premium Nickel Resources team.
PNRB is looking to become a catalyst in participating and building a strong economy for Botswana, with a purpose where respect and trust are core to every single step that will be taken. “Our success will mean following international best-in-class practices for the protection of Botswana’s environment and the focus on its people, building partnerships and earning respect, through cooperation and collaboration,” explains PNRB on its website.
“We are committed to Governance through transparent accountability and open communication within our team and with all our stakeholders.” Mphathi, a former BCL Executive, is widely celebrated for achieving unprecedented profitability at the mine during his tenure as General Manager.
The Serowe-born mining guru obtained a Diploma in Mining Technology from Haileybury School of Mines in Canada. He later obtained a B.Eng. Mining degree from the Technical University of Nova Scotia. Mphathi went on to City University in London, UK and obtained a M.Sc. in Industrial and Administrative Sciences.
Before ascending to the top country managerial role of Premium Nickel Resources. Mphathi was General Manager of Botswana Ash (Botash), Southern Africa’s leading salt and soda ash producer. He was at some point linked to Debswana top post, which is still to date not substantively filled following the death of Managing Director, Albert Milton, in August 2019.
With Mphathi out of the race and now leading the rebuilding of his former employer, the top post at De Beers- Botswana joint venture is likely to be filled by current acting Managing Director Lynette Armstrong, a seasoned finance executive with unparalleled experience in the extractive industry.
“We are happy to hear that former General Manager of BCL, Mr Montwedi Mphathi, has a relationship with the new Company that intends to resuscitate the mine, he is an experienced Mining Executive who knows BCL better, we want the mine to be brought back to life so that our people can be employed ” said Dithapelo Keorapetse Member of Parliament for Selibe Phikwe West recently in Parliament.
BCL was liquidated in October 2016 following a series of losses and government bailout occasioned by low Copper prices and allegedly poor Investment decisions and maladministration. Recently PNR CEO, Keith Morrison said his team of seasoned experts both from Canada and Botswana are committed to resuscitate the BCL assets and deliver a high performance mining operation.
“The World, Botswana and the mining industry have changed dramatically since mining first started at the former BCL assets in the early 1970s. The nickel-copper-cobalt resources remaining at these mines are now critical metals, required for the continued development of a decarbonized and electrified global economy,” he said.
Morrison added: “As we move forward, it is our goal to demonstrate the potential economics of re-developing a combination of the former BCL assets to produce Ni-Cu-Co and water in a manner that is inclusive of modern environmental, social and corporate governance responsibilities.”
He explained that to attain this, extensive upgrades to infrastructure will be required with an emphasis on safety, sustainability and the application of new technologies to minimize the environmental impact and total carbon footprint for the new operations.
“Our team remains committed to working with the local communities and all of the stakeholders throughout this period and we encourage anyone with questions or feedback to reach out to us directly,” he noted.
Lucara Diamond Corporation, the Canadian 100% owners of iconic Karowe mine, this week announced the extension of its supply deal with Belgian diamond midstream giant HB Antwerp.
The definitive supply agreement is in respect of all diamonds produced in excess. of 10.8 carats in size from its rare gem producing Karowe diamond mine located in the Boteti district of Botswana. Large, high value diamonds in excess of 10.8 carats in size account for approximately 70% of Lucara’s annual revenue.
Though the Karowe mine has remained fully operational throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, Lucara made a deliberate decision not to tender any of its +10.8 carat inventory after early March 2020 amidst the uncertainty caused by the global crisis.
Under the terms of this novel supply agreement with HB, extended to December 2022, the purchase price paid for each +10.8 carat rough diamond is based on the estimated polished outcome, determined through state of the art scanning and planning technology, with a true up paid on actual achieved polished sales thereafter, less a fee and the cost of manufacturing.
“Lucara is beginning to see the benefits of this strategy in accessing a broader marketplace and delivering regular cash flow based on final polished sales,” said Lucara CEO, Eira Thomas on Wednesday.
“We believe these early results warrant an extension of the arrangement for at least 24 months to determine if superior pricing and market stability for our large, high-value diamonds can be sustained longer term.”
The Canadian junior miner initiated a supply agreement with HB for large stones from its Botswana Karowe mine in July 2020, after pausing its tenders shortly after the Covid-19 pandemic began. The deal enables Lucara to sell the rough diamonds to HB at a price based on an estimate of the polished outcome, which the companies determine using diamond scanning and planning technology. Once HB sells the goods, it adjusts the price that Lucara receives based on the actual selling price of the polished, minus a fee and manufacturing costs.
The extended supply deal will follow the same payment terms as the initial agreement, and will be in effect through to December 2022. Lucara said in a statement this week that the agreement also provides increased tax revenue and beneficiation opportunities for the government of Botswana, and creates a streamlined supply chain for Karowe’s rough.
“More than a supply agreement, this collaboration structurally embeds a new transparent and sustainable way of working in the diamond-value chain,” said HB CEO, Oded Mansori. “For the first time, different partners of the value chain are fully aligned, sharing data and information throughout the process from mine to consumer.”
Mansori added: “We are truly proud with this innovative and straightforward collaboration that has proven itself through the volatile and uncertain reality of 2020. We are confident to achieve even better results during the term of this new contract and demonstrate the power of a true partnership.”
Lucara, which early this year secured extension of Karowe mining license to 2040, announced over P2.4 billion funding for Karowe underground mining expansion project a fortnight ago. The Vancouver headquartered top large diamond producer says this supply agreement deal extension with HB will bring about regular cash flow for Lucara using polished pricing mechanism. Furthermore, the company says the deal has potential revenue upside, particularly suited for Lucara’s large, exceptional diamonds.
In the main, Botswana will benefit increased tax revenue and additional beneficiation opportunities for the Government and communities around Karowe mine. A streamlined supply chain that achieves alignment between Lucara and HB to maximize the value of each +10.8 carat diamond produced at Karowe.