The results of the Bank of Botswana Business Survey suggest that firms were optimistic about economic activity in the second quarter of 2019. Overall, businesses expected an increase in sales, capacity utilisation and profits in the second and third quarter of 2019.
“Firms intended to increase investment in buildings, plant and machinery, vehicles and equipment, and ‘other’ category, despite anticipating tight access to credit in the domestic market. Meanwhile, firms expect cost pressure to rise in the third quarter of 2019, mainly reflecting the anticipated upward pressure on costs of materials, wages and transport. However, firms expect inflation to remain stable and within the Bank’s medium-term objective range of 3 – 6 percent going forward,” reads the report.
This Report presents results of the survey carried out in the second quarter of 2019, covering the second quarter of 2019 (Q2:2019 – the current period); the third quarter (Q3:2019); and M12, the twelve-month period from July 2019 – June 2020 (Q3:2019-Q2:2020). The survey samples 100 businesses from eight economic sectors and these are: agriculture; mining; manufacturing; water and electricity; construction; trade; transport and communications, and business services. The response rate for this survey is 82 percent.
Economic Growth is expected to be lower in 2019, than in 2018
Meanwhile Firms are less optimistic about economic performance in 2019 expecting a growth of 3.8 percent, which is less than the projection of 4.2 percent made in the 2019 Budget Speech and the 4.5 percent growth in 2018. According to the Survey, it was expected that economic activity in the second quarter of 2019 would be mainly driven by mining and quarrying; finance and business services; and a combination of trade, hotels restaurants and transport and communications sectors.
“The optimism in mining and quarrying, and the trade, hotels and restaurants and the transport and communications sectors could be attributable to the positive prospects for global demand, sales and prices for diamonds, as well as the improvement in tourism prospects,” says the Business Survey report. On the other hand, construction was the only sector which anticipated business conditions to remain unchanged in the second quarter of 2019.
“This is possibly due to the slowdown in the construction of projects since the completion of some major construction works (such as the Botswana Unified Revenue Services building in the Gaborone Central Business District and various Economic Stimulus Programme projects) and the lower rate of increase in funds allocated for development in the current financial year. Meanwhile, all sectors, led the by trade, hotels and restaurants and the transport and communications sectors anticipate improved economic activity in the third quarter of 2019 and the year to June 2020.”
Overall, business conditions are expected to remain positive during the second quarter of 2019, with the level of optimism at 52 percent. However, optimism eases to 48 percent in the third quarter of 2019 and 47 percent, in the twelve-month period to June 2020. Firms, mainly in mining and retail trade, hotels and restaurants intended to increase investment in buildings, plant and machinery, and vehicles and equipment during the second quarter of 2019. Furthermore, firms had also anticipated to increase: capacity/resource utilisation; production/service capacity; sales; and profitability during the same period.
According to the Survey, Firms intend to lower their levels of investment in the third quarter of 2019, possibly due to the expected dampening effect arising from the perceived tight access to credit. Furthermore, firms anticipate reduced levels of stocks/inventories in the third quarter of 2019. “The domestic market-oriented firms were confident about business conditions in the second quarter of 2019 and the optimism improves in the third quarter of 2019 and the twelve-month period to June 2020 (M12).
Confidence in the domestic market-oriented firms is mainly driven by trade, hotels and restaurants, transport and communications and the finance and business services sectors. Export market-oriented firms are more optimistic about the third quarter of 2019 compared to other periods of the survey especially those engaged in the manufacturing business.”
Domestic lending rates and borrowing are expected to rise in the year to June 2020
Firms expect the lending rates and the volume of borrowing from all markets (domestic South African and elsewhere to increase in the twelve-month period to June 2020. Notwithstanding the expected increase in lending rates, the anticipated increase in borrowing volumes is consistent with the expected rise in investment, especially in buildings. Firms in the domestic and export-oriented markets perceived access to credit to have been tight in the second quarter of 2019, mainly because they consider the cost of credit to have been high in the period.
During the year ending in June 2020, there is an inclination among firms, especially those targeting the domestic market, to borrow from domestic creditors, the Survey has found. “Conversely, export oriented firms tend to prefer to borrow from the international markets other than South Africa Looking at factors that affect borrowing decisions, most of the firms which indicated preference to borrow from a particular market (domestic, South Africa and elsewhere), cited the availability of the required loan products in the respective markets as the basis for their choice. Affordability and accessibility of credit facilities influenced borrowing plans of about 30 percent of businesses irrespective of whether funds are to be sourced from Botswana or abroad.”
According to the Survey the majority of firms prefer to finance their business operations from retained earnings and loans. Retained earnings as a source of finance is more prominent in the trade, hotels and restaurants, and the transport and communications sectors. On the other hand, most of the firms in manufacturing, finance and business services and the construction sectors plan to fund their businesses through loans.
Pressure from rising costs expected to increase in the third quarter of 2019
“Overall, there is a strong expectation of cost escalation in the third quarter of 2019, attributable to the expected rise in wages and cost of materials and transport. Firms’ expectations about domestic inflation have generally been on a downward trend since 2013, and within the Bank’s inflation objective range of 3 – 6 percent since 2014. Furthermore, uncertainty about future inflation has generally declined as shown by the narrowing standard deviation (std dev) from the average expectations. Firms’ inflation expectations for 2019 average 3.6 percent, suggesting that inflation expectations are well anchored within the Bank’s objective range.”
Lack of external financing is perceived to be a major challenge to doing business
Meanwhile a number of firms (predominantly market-oriented ones) across various sectors, cited the difficulty in accessing financing from abroad as the greatest challenge to their business operations in the second quarter of 2019. “The second major business impediment is shortage of raw materials, commonly cited by the manufacturing sector, followed by construction and trade, hotels, restaurants and transport and communications.”
On the positive side, the political climate, domestic demand and the current exchange rate are viewed as being the most supportive factors to doing business in Botswana during the second quarter of 2019. Another observation is that water and electricity sub-sectors reportedly contribute positively to economic activity. There are ongoing efforts to improve the supply of these utilities through measures such as the implementation of the North-South Carrier 2 water project and the North-West Transmission Grid electricity connection. Overall, firms are confident about business conditions in the second quarter of 2019.
However, the level of optimism declines in the third quarter of 2019, consistent with the anticipated higher cost pressures. Firms expect the economy to grow by 3.8 percent in 2019, lower than the 4.2 percent projection stated in the 2019 Budget Speech. Furthermore, on average, firms expect inflation to be slightly below 4 percent, which is consistent with the Bank’s projection that inflation will remain within the objective range of 3 – 6 percent in the medium term.
Robust demand for diamonds in early 2022 which was a spillover from late 2021, has catapulted Botswana into a surplus for the month of January 2022.
According to latest figures from Statistics Botswana, the country recorded a trade surplus of P661.8 million in the first month of the year, against a trade deficit of P270.2 million in December as per revised data.
The Statistics Botswana’s International Trade Merchandise Trade Statistics (ITMS) for January has attributed the trade surplus to a splendid performance of the diamond commodity which anchored the country’s export figures to a growth of 5.7 percent (P411.8 million), from the revised December 2021 figure of P7,182.8 million to P7, 594.6 million in January.
The Diamonds group accounted for 90.9 percent (P6, 904.3 million), followed by Copper, with 2.5 percent (P189.0 million). Diamond exports rose by 5.2 percent (P339.2 million) from the revised December 2021 value of P6, 565.1 million to P6, 904.3 million. An upsurge in Copper exports by 17.2 percent (P27.8 million) from P161.3 million to P189.0 million was also observed during the current month.
On the other hand during the same month of January 2022, imports were valued at P6, 932.8 million, representing a decline of 7.0 percent (P520.3 million) from the December 2021 revised figure of P7, 453.1 million. The decrease was mainly attributed to the decline in all commodity groups except for Diamonds and Chemicals & Rubber Product.
Botswana imports diamonds from South Africa, Namibia and Canada, coming into the country for aggregation at De Beers Global Sightholder Sales. Diamonds contributed 30.1 percent (P2, 087.1 million) to total imports. Fuel; Chemicals & Rubber Products and Food, Beverages & Tobacco followed with contributions of 15.7 percent (P1, 085.8 million), 14.9 percent (P1, 031.2 million) and 12.5 percent (P869.0 million) respectively. Machinery & Electrical Equipment contributed 10.3 percent (P716.0 million).
During the month SACU region accounted for the largest imports contributing 53.2 percent (P3, 690.3 million) to the total. The top most imported commodity groups from the customs union were Fuel and Food, Beverages & Tobacco, with contributions of 26.4 percent (P973.1million) and 22.1 percent (P815.8 million) to imports from the region, respectively.
South Africa is Botswana’s top supplier of imports at 50.3 percent (P3, 490.3 million) of total imports during the current month. Fuel and Food, Beverages & Tobacco contributed 24.5 percent (P855.5million), and 23.0 percent (P801.1 million) to total imports from that country, respectively. Chemicals & Rubber Products and Machinery & Electrical Equipment, followed by 13.5 percent (P471.3 million) and 13.1 percent (P458.8 million) respectively.
Namibia supplied 2.3 percent (P157.1 million) of total imports during the period, mainly comprising of fuel at 74.9 percent of total imports from the country. Botswana received imports worth P1, 738.2 million from the EU, accounting for 25.1 percent of total imports during the reference period.
The major commodity group imported from the EU was Diamonds, at 80.8 percent (P1, 404.9 million) of all imports from the union. Belgium was the major source of imports from the EU, with a contribution of 21.7 percent (P1, 506.9 million) of total imports during the month under review.
In January 2022, imports from Asia were valued at P657.6 million, representing 9.5 percent of total imports. The major commodity groups imported from the regional block were Diamonds and Machinery & Electrical Equipment with contributions of 41.5 percent (P272.7 million) and 21.6 percent (P141.8 million) of total imports respectively.
Canada supplied 4.2 percent (P290.5 million) of total imports during the current period. Imports from Canada consisted mainly of Diamonds at 98.5 percent (P286.0 million). In terms of Exports Asia was the top destination for Botswana exports, having received 67.7 percent (P5, 141.9 million) of total exports in January 2022.
These exports were mainly destined for India and the UAE, receiving 25.6 percent (P1, 944.0 million) and 23.1 percent (P1, 753.1 million) of total exports, respectively. Diamonds and Copper were the major commodity groups exported to Asia during the month.
In January 2022, exports destined to the EU amounted to P1, 297.4 million, accounting for 17.1 percent of total exports. Belgium received almost all the exports destined to the regional union, acquiring 16.9 percent (P1, 280.5 million) of total exports.
The Diamonds group was the main commodity group exported to the EU, at 98.6 percent (P1, 279.9 million)
During the reference period, the SACU region received exports valued at P900.6 million, accounting for 11.9 percent of total exports. Diamonds and Live Cattle accounted for 55.0 percent (P322.5 million) and 10.1 percent (P76.8 million) of total exports to the customs union.
South Africa and Namibia received 9.6 percent (P727.4 million) and 2.3 percent (P172.8 million) of total exports respectively during the month under review. Goods exported by Air during the month under review were valued at P6, 990.3 million, accounting for 92.0 percent of total exports. Those transported by Road and Rail accounted for 7.8 percent (P589.3 million) and 0.2 percent (P14.9 million) respectively.
During January 2022, 52.3 percent (P3, 625.3 million) of total imports were transported into the country by Road. Transportation of imports by Rail and Air accounted for 35.4 percent (P2, 456.5 million) and 12.3 percent (P850.4 million) respectively.
1. Europe once branded coal ‘dirty’ but their demand for it has skyrocketed once again. What do we learn about coal from what’s happening now in Ukraine?
There are over 80 countries in the world who still rely on coal as a form of energy. These are countries that are fighting to have basic necessities like electricity, which research shows increases their quality of life substantially. Energy poverty is real in Africa, India and Asia.
The Western approach to coal cannot be universal. We must remember that developed economies relied heavily on coal during their development. Challenges being faced by developing nations are unique. Demand for coal in Europe right now is driven by sanctions on Russian gas and coal and show that Europe might well be over-exposed to “green” with no back-up at times when there is no wind, running water, endless sunshine or faced with supply shortages. Coal is back in play in Europe because of the war, and despite massive adoption of clean energy in the US not all of the US uses clean energy.
In Germany and Italy, coal-fired power plants that were once decommissioned are now being considered for a second life. In South Africa, more coal-laden ships are embarking on what’s typically a quiet route around the Cape of Good Hope toward Europe. Coal burning in the US is in the midst of its biggest revival in a decade, while China is reopening shuttered mines and planning new ones Coal remains and will remain an essential element in the energy mix. We need to make use of cleaner coal in such mix.
2. How much has been the projected demand of coal in the in the last couple of months?
Our key land export markets consist of 80-90% bound for South Africa and Namibia. In the last three months however, sea bound exports increased significantly with international traders buying to export to Europe and the West. We do not have specific numbers because the final destination overseas is determined by the international traders who buy coal from us. We remain hopeful that this demand continues.
3. How has the demand influenced Minergy exports to South Africa, Namibia and overseas?
Minergy remains committed to its local markets and continues to supply into these. A massive increase in demand from international markets, stemming from the Ukraine war and sanctions on Russia has come as a blessing to Minergy as lucrative pricing has made once uneconomical logistics feasible. This allowed Minergy to place additional product in new markets, markets historically uneconomical… We continue to look for alternative markets and supply to Namibia is one such market as well as the ability to use their ports as export routes for seaborne thermal coal.
4. Comment on the Minergy market access dynamics.
Refer to answer for question 2 and 3.
5. What would it take to fully explore the billions of tons of coal in Botswana?
Greater local and even foreign direct investment. Simplifying regulatory processes and promoting ease of doing business needs to be top agenda items. Coal has unfairly been de-campaigned in the West as a ‘dirty’ mineral which has swayed investors to look elsewhere for investment portfolios. With enough funders and investments in coal the huge deposits can change our power fortunes and energy independence. Given Botswana’s massive reserves, we are of the opinion that coal should be another diversified revenue stream for the Botswana Government. At Minergy we remain thankful for the support from Government as well as from internal development organizations that have supported our strategy and were instrumental in getting the mine to the phase that it is in at the moment. Partnership with government and open minds to managing coal is key.
6. What future do you project for Minergy in the medium and long term given what we see now in Europe?
We cannot predict how long the situation in Europe will last and we pray that it will be resolved as the loss of lives and destruction of the Ukraine is a human catastrophe. Our model is premised on fully optimizing our deposits for the benefit of Botswana and Batswana..
7. Open cast for coal is a new concept in Botswana. How has Minergy enhanced the skills base?
Opencast coal mining and the associated beneficiation of sized coal is a specialized industry. Currently there is no other similar operation in Botswana to recruit from.
The South African coal industry is well experienced with this plant operation and the requisite skill is found there. It is necessary for our operations to make use of such skills to operate the plant as we cannot find all the skill in Botswana. The skill for operating such a plant is different than diamond, tin, copper etc. processing. As such certain positions require expatriate recruitment, but all these positions are supported with understudy programmes
It is Minergy’s hope as part of its legacy, to promote and install fully qualified local opencast mining and coal beneficiation skills, currently not available in Botswana.
8. What are the projected human capital skills of the future in coal mining.
See response to question number 7.
9. Share experiences from the recent Mining Indaba. What is the future of coal?
Africa needs to be energy efficient and independent. We remain encouraged at the responsible strategy that the Botswana government has put into place to support this.
10. Kindly share in detail, infrastructural developments which were brought in place by Minergy in those communities.
We have an electronic brochure that showcases all the value add that we have contributed not to just the Medie village but Botswana as a whole. This is available at our office or electronically on our website www.minergycoal.com. Highlights include
Minergy paid for the electrification of the mine and the local Medie village benefited from the connection, allowing 500 people access to electricity through a self-funded prepaid system. As an extended part of Minergy’s social investment drive the Kgotla and the clinic have also been electrified, making day-to-day running of these essential services much easier and efficient. This is ahead of the Governments intended electrification programme, which was only planned for2024.
The quality of the road between Lentsweletau and Medie has been significantly upgraded compared to the state the road was in before mining operations commenced. Continuous road rehabilitation and dust suppression is undertaken in and around the villages to maintain road integrity. ( This is a public road, but the Group takes care of the road as it benefits the community in which the mine operates)
The dilapidated community hall has been refurbished including access to solar power and will be handed over to the community.
11. A development as huge as Masama Coal mine would usually result in the mushrooming of several other businesses to benefit from its value chain. In the case of Masama, kindly share businesses which have been created as a result of the growing value chain.
Readers are again referred to electronic brochure that showcases all the value add that we have contributed.
This phenomenon is indeed correct and there are a number of entrepreneurial businesses that have flourished including laundry services, bed & breakfast for suppliers visiting the mine or the area, housing built for rental accommodation, spaza shops and food stalls, first supermarket in Lentsweletau and additional building supply outlets established
We also make use of 12 locally owned and operated transporters, who are used by the mine to transport product, where applicable.
The partnership between Debswana and Botswana Oil Limited (BOL) which was announced a fortnight ago will create under 100 direct jobs, and scores of job opportunities for citizens in the value chain activities.
In a major milestone, Debswana and BOL jointly announced that the fuel supply to Debswana, which was in the past serviced by foreign companies, will now be reserved for citizen companies. The total value of the project is P8 billion, spanning a period of five years.
“About 88 direct jobs will be created through the partnership. These include some jobs which will be transferred from the current supplier to the new partnership,” Matida Mmipi, Head of Stakeholder Relations at Botswana Oil, told BusinessPost.
“We believe this partnership will become a blueprint for other citizen initiatives, even in other sectors of the economy. Furthermore, this partnership has succeeded in unlocking opportunities that never existed for ordinary citizens who aspire to grow and do business with big companies like Debswana.”
Mmipi said through this partnership, BOL and Debswana intend to impact citizen owned companies in the fuel supply value chain that include transportation, supply, facilities maintenance, engineering, customs clearance, trucks stops and its support activities such as workshop / maintenance, tyre services, truck wash bays among others.
“The number of companies to be on-boarded will be determined by the economics at the time of engagement,” she said. BOL will play a facilitatory role of handholding and assisting emerging citizen-owned fuel supply and fuel transportation companies to supply Debswana’s Jwaneng and Orapa Letlhakane Damtshaa (OLDM) mines with diesel and petrol for their operations.
“BOL expects to increase citizen companies’ market share in the fuel supply and transportation industries, which have over the years been dominated by foreign-owned suppliers. Consequently, the agreement will also ensure security of supply for Debswana operations, which are a mainstay of the Botswana economy,” Mmipi said.
“Furthermore, BOL will, under this agreement, transfer skills to citizen suppliers and transporters during the contract period and ensure delivery of competent and skilled citizen suppliers and transport companies upon completion of the agreement.”
Mmipi said the capacitating by BOL is limited to providing citizen companies oil industry technical capability and capacity to deliver on the requirements of the contract, when asked on helping citizen companies to access funding.
“BOL’s mandate does not include financing citizen empowerment initiatives. Securing funding will remain the responsibility of the beneficiaries. This could be through government financing entities including CEDA or through commercial banks. Further to this, there are financial institutions that have already signed up to support the Debswana Citizen Economic Empowerment Programme (CEEP),” Mmipi indicated.
While BOL is established by government as company limited by guarantee, it will not benefit financially from the partnership with Debswana, as citizen empowerment in the petroleum value chain is core to BOL’s mandate.
“BOL does not pursue citizen facilitation for financial benefit, but rather we engage in citizen facilitation as a social aspect of our mandate. Citizen facilitation comes at a cost, but it is the right thing to do for the country to develop the oil and gas industry,” she said.
Mmipi said supplying fuel to Debswana comes with commercial benefits such as supply margins. These have traditionally been made outside the country when supply was done by multi-nationals for a period spanning over 50 years. With BOL anchoring supply for Debswana, this benefit will accrue locally, and BOL will be able to pay taxes and dividends to the shareholders in Botswana.