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2019 Elections: It’s a close call for BDP – Security agencies

Botswana’s economy remains stable and is expected to grow this year despite the electorate nervously gearing for the October general election amid serious fighting among rival factions in the ruling party, the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) and other opposition parties.

With political and economic analysts predicting that a divided BDP, in power for the past 58 years, will face stiff challenge from the opposition and fail to garner an overwhelming majority in the coming elections, the country’s economy remains firm and remains attractive for investors. “A divided Botswana Democratic Party will fail to secure an overwhelming majority in the 2019 elections but is expected to remain in power,” an international think-tank, the Economic Intelligence Unit (EIU) has predicted ahead of the country’s watershed national plebiscite.

“(However), the economy will continue to remain heavily mineral-dependent, and as a result economic growth will fluctuate according to external demand and prices for diamonds,” the think-tank said. Other analysts are predicting that the non-mining sectors were expected to pick up further, before and after the election, driven by structural reforms, including an amended immigration law that ensures expeditious processing of work and residence permits while construction was expected to continue benefiting from the on-going fiscal stimulus.


However, despite the positive economic outlook, the October election has been characterised by a number of challenges including massive defections in the ruling BDP, verbal threats and backstabbing among other rivals parties. Former president Ian Khama, who has maintained poor relations with President Mokgweetsi Masisi, left the BDP and has been instrumental in the formation of a new opposition political party, the Botswana Patriotic Front (BPF), where he was recently appointed the party’s patron.


“The divisions in the ruling party, which have deepened in 2019, are unlikely to prevent the BDP from retaining a parliamentary majority unless (Pelonomi) Venson-Moitoi and her supporters leave the BDP to form a new organisation or join the opposition Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC).  We view this as unlikely,” another international security organisation, Garda World projected. 
Venson-Moitoi is a former foreign minister who in April this year withdrew her challenge in the BDP’s internal elections to select its presidential candidate where President Masisi was later nominated. 

In such previous elections, candidates were chosen unopposed. 
Other potential presidential, parliamentary and local council players in the coming election are; the Progressives (AP) and the Botswana Movement for Democracy (BMD).
However, regardless of these political intrigues in parties contesting the coming elections and the unpredictable outcome of the results, Botswana’s economy has managed to weather the storm and is expected to remain stable.  
Garda World attributed Botswana’s strong economy in the face of a volatile election period to strong State and private institutions, a low debt burden and efforts to diversify the economy through measures including tax concessions in manufacturing.
“We forecast GDP (Gross Domestic Growth) will grow by 4.6 percent in 2019.

  This is likely to soften in 2010 to 4.3 percent given our forecast of slowing global growth.  Botswana’s operational environment ranks among the best in Africa.  Corruption is not considered a significant problem, with Botswana often being among the best in the region in surveys and indices measuring graft,” Garda World predicted.
However, other analysts said despite Botswana’s operational environment ranking it among the best in Africa, President Masisi was being distracted in carrying out his constitutional duties as the Head of State, as he spends most of his time engaged in fierce battles with his new rival, former president Khama.

As a result, President Masisi is being criticised of failing to create employment for a huge market of unemployed youths, which stands now at 40 percent.  His opponents also accuse President Masisi of making fairy-tale commitments in his election campaigns such as designing an electric car in Botswana when the electorate expects realistic messages from him that will improve their livelihoods.

“Bureaucratic issues, skills shortages, and electricity and water constraints are among operational challenges.  Botswana is under pressing economic conditions with high levels of unemployment within the youth, high numbers of highly trained graduates without jobs, frequent retrenchments in the work place, poor or low wages, worker strikes precipitated by poor government/labour relations, student strikes over unpaid stipends and pressing land issues,” said Garda World.

Freedom House, an international civil rights organisation said President Masisi’s government was not doing enough to protect ordinary workers and ending human trafficking. “Employee abuses in retail stores, the tourism industry, and private security sector are an on-going problem. Botswana lacks a strong regulatory framework for labour brokers that dispatch workers to clients on short-term contracts, in which exploitation is common. Human trafficking remains a challenge,” Freedom House said. President Masisi became the caretaker president of Botswana in April last year, upon the end of the constitutional term of President Khama and he will serve in that capacity until lawmakers elect a new president after the October general election.

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Civil Service volatility: Democracy vs Bureaucracy

19th April 2021
President Masisi

Here is how one Permanent Secretary encapsulates the clear tension between democracy and bureaucracy in Botswana: “President Mokgweetsi Masisi’s Government is behaving like a state surrounded with armed forces in order to capture it or force its surrender. The situation has turned so volatile, for tomorrow is not guaranteed for us top civil servants.

These are the painful results of a personalized civil service in our view as permanent secretaries”. Although his deduction of the situation may be summed as sour grapes because he is one of the ‘victims’ of the reshuffle, he is convinced this is a perfect description of the rationale behind frequent changes and transfers characterising the current civil service.

The result of it all, he said, is that “there is too much instability at managerial and strategic levels of the civil service leading to a noticeable directionless civil service.” He continued: “Changes and transfers are inevitable in the civil service, but to a permissible scale and frequency. Think of soccer team coach who changes and transfers his entire squad every month; you know the consequences?”

The Tsunami has hit hard at critical departments and Ministries leaving a strong wave of uncertainty, many demoralised and some jobless. In traditional approaches to public administration, democracy gives the goals; and bureaucracy delivers the technical efficiency required for implementation. But the recent moves in the civil service are indicative of conflicting imperatives – the notion of separation between politicians and administrators is becoming blurred by the day.

“Look at what happened to Prisons and BDF where second in command were overlooked for outsiders, and these are the people who had sacrificially served for donkey’s years hoping for a seat at the ladder’s end. The frequency of the changes, at times affecting the same Ministry or individual also demonstrates some level of ineptitude, clumsiness and lack of foresight from those in charge,” remarked the PS who added that their view is that the transfers are not related to anything but “settling scores, creating corruption opportunities and pushing out perceived dissident and former president, Ian Khama’s alleged loyalists and most of these transfers are said to be products of intelligence detection.”

Partly blaming Khama for the mess and his unwillingness to let go, the PS dismissed Masisi for falling to the trap and failing to outgrow the destructive tiff. “Khama is here to stay and the sooner Masisi comes to terms with the fact that he (Masisi) is the state President, the better. For a President to still be making these changes and transfers signals signs of a confused man who has not yet started rolling his roadmap, if at all it was ever there. I am saying this because any roadmap comes with key players and policies,” he concluded.

The Ministry of Health and Wellness seems to be the most hard-hit by the transfers, having experienced three Permanent Secretaries changes within a year and a half. Insiders say the changes have everything to do with the Ministry being the centre of COVID-19 tenders and economic opportunities. “The buck stops with the PS and no right-thinking PS can just allow glaring corruption under his watch as an accounting officer. Technocrats are generally law abiding, the pressure comes with politically appointed leaders racing against political terms to loot,” revealed a director in the Ministry preferring anonymity.

The latest transfer of Kabelo Ebineng she says was also motivated by his firm attitude against the President’s blue-eyed Task Team boys. “The Task Team wants to own the COVID-19 pandemic and government interventions and always cry foul when the Ministry reasserts itself as mandated by law,” said the director who added that Masisi who was always caught between the crossfire decided on sacrificing Ebineng to the joy of his team as they (Task Team) were in the habit of threatening to resign citing Ebineng as the problem.

Ebineng joins the Office of the President as a deputy Coordinator (government implementation and coordination office).The incoming PS is the soft-spoken Grace Muzila, known and described by her close associates as a conformist albeit knowledgeable.

One of the losers in the grand scheme is Thato Raphaka who many had seen as the next PSP because of his experience and calm demeanour following a declaration of interest in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) Secretary post by the current PSP, Elias Magosi.

But hardly ten months into his post, Raphaka has been transferred out to the National Strategy Office in what many see as a demotion of some sort. Other notable changes coming into OP are Pearl Ramokoka formerly with the Employment, Labour and Productivity Ministry coming in as a Permanent Secretary and Kgomotso Abi as director of Public Service Reforms.

One of the ousted senior officers in the Office of the President warned that there are no signs that the changes and transfers will stop anytime soon: “If you are observant you would have long noticed that the changes don’t only affect senior officers but government decisions as well. A decision is made today and the government backtracks on it within a week. Not only that, the President says this today, and his deputy denies it the following day in Parliament,” he warned.

Some observers have blamed the turmoil in the civil service partly to lack of accountable presidential advisers or kitchen cabinet properly schooled on matters of statecraft. They point out that politicians or those peripheral to them should refrain from hampering the technical and organizational activities of public managers – or else the party (reshuffling) won’t stop.

In the view expressed by some Permanent Secretaries, Elias Magosi, has not really been himself since joining the civil service; and has cut a picture of indifference in most critical engagements; the most notable been a permanent secretaries platform which he chairs. As things stand there is need to reconcile the imperatives of democracy and democracy in Botswana. Peace will rein only when public value should stand astride the fault that runs between politicians and public managers.

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Morupisi fights for freedom in court

19th April 2021
morupisi

Former Permanent Secretary to the President, Carter Morupisi, is fighting for survival in a matter in which the State has charged him and his wife, Pinnie Morupisi, with corruption and money laundering.

Morupisi has joined a list of prominent figures that served in the previous administration and who have been accused of corruption during their tenure in office. While others have been emerging victorious, Morupisi is yet to find that luck. The High Court recently dismissed his no case to answer application.

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Pressure mounts on Biden to suspend Covid-19 vaccine patents

19th April 2021
Joe Biden

United States President, Joe Biden, is faced with a decision to make relating to the Covid-19 vaccine intellectual property after 175 former world leaders and Nobel laurates joined the campaign urging the US to take “urgent action” to suspend intellectual property rights for Covid-19 vaccines to help boost global inoculation rates.

According to the world leaders, doing so would allow developing countries to make their own copies of the vaccines that have been developed by pharmaceutical companies without fear of being sued for intellectual property infringements.

“A WTO waiver is a vital and necessary step to bringing an end to this pandemic. It must be combined with ensuring vaccine know-how and technology is shared openly,” the signatories, comprising more than 100 Nobel prize-winners and over 70 former world leaders, wrote in a letter to US President Joe Biden, according to Financial Times.

A measure to allow countries to temporarily override patent rights for Covid related medical products was proposed at the World Trade Organization by India and South Africa in October, and has since been backed by nearly 60 countries.

Former leaders who signed the letter included Gordon Brown, former UK Prime Minister; François Hollande, former French President; Mikhail Gorbachev, former President of the USSR; and Yves Leterme, former Belgian Prime Minister.

In their official communication, South Africa and India said: “As new diagnostics, therapeutics and vaccines for Covid-19 are developed, there are significant concerns [about] how these will be made available promptly, in sufficient quantities and at affordable prices to meet global demand.”

While developed countries have been able to secure enough vaccine to inoculate their citizens, developing countries such as Botswana are struggling to source enough to swiftly vaccine their citizens, something which world leaders believe it would work against global recovery therefore proving counter-productive.

Since the availability of vaccines, Botswana has been able to secure only 60 000 doses of vaccines, 30 000 as donation as from the Indian government, while the other 30 000 was sourced through COVAX facility.  Canada, has pre-ordered vaccines in surplus and it will be able to vaccinate each of its citizens six times over. In the UK and US, it is four vaccines per person; and two each in the EU and Australia.

For vaccines produced in Europe, developing countries are forced to pay double what European countries are paying, making it more expensive for already financially struggling economies.  European countries however justify the price of vaccines and that they deserve to buy them cheap since they contributed in their development.

It is evident that vaccines cannot be made available immediately to all countries worldwide with wealthy economies being the only success story in that regard, something that has been referred to as a “catastrophic moral failure”, head of the World Health Organisation (WHO), Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus.

The challenge facing developing countries is not only the price, but also the capacity of vaccine manufactures to be able to do so to meet global demand within a short time. The proposal for a patent waiver by India and South Africa has been rejected by developed countries, known for hosting the world leading pharmaceutical companies such US, European Union, the United Kingdom, and Switzerland.

According to the Financial Times, US business groups including pharmaceutical industry representatives, have urged Biden to resist supporting a waiver to IP rules at the WTO, arguing that the proposal led by India and South Africa was too “vague” and “broad”.

The individuals who signed the letter, including Nobel laureates in economics as well as from across the arts and sciences, warned that inequitable vaccine access would impact the global economy and prevent it from recovering.

“The world saw unprecedented development of safe and effective vaccines, in major part thanks to US public investment,” the group wrote. “We all welcome that vaccination rollout in the US and many wealthier countries is bringing hope to their citizens.”

“Yet for the majority of the world that same hope is yet to be seen. New waves of suffering are now rising across the globe. Our global economy cannot rebuild if it remains vulnerable to this virus.”
The group warned that fully enforcing IP was “self-defeating for the US” as it hindered global vaccination efforts. “Given artificial global supply shortages, the US economy already risks losing $1.3tn in gross domestic product this year.”

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