Botswana’s economy remains stable and is expected to grow this year despite the electorate nervously gearing for the October general election amid serious fighting among rival factions in the ruling party, the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) and other opposition parties.
With political and economic analysts predicting that a divided BDP, in power for the past 58 years, will face stiff challenge from the opposition and fail to garner an overwhelming majority in the coming elections, the country’s economy remains firm and remains attractive for investors. “A divided Botswana Democratic Party will fail to secure an overwhelming majority in the 2019 elections but is expected to remain in power,” an international think-tank, the Economic Intelligence Unit (EIU) has predicted ahead of the country’s watershed national plebiscite.
“(However), the economy will continue to remain heavily mineral-dependent, and as a result economic growth will fluctuate according to external demand and prices for diamonds,” the think-tank said. Other analysts are predicting that the non-mining sectors were expected to pick up further, before and after the election, driven by structural reforms, including an amended immigration law that ensures expeditious processing of work and residence permits while construction was expected to continue benefiting from the on-going fiscal stimulus.
â€¨However, despite the positive economic outlook, the October election has been characterised by a number of challenges including massive defections in the ruling BDP, verbal threats and backstabbing among other rivals parties. Former president Ian Khama, who has maintained poor relations with President Mokgweetsi Masisi, left the BDP and has been instrumental in the formation of a new opposition political party, the Botswana Patriotic Front (BPF), where he was recently appointed the party’s patron.â€¨
“The divisions in the ruling party, which have deepened in 2019, are unlikely to prevent the BDP from retaining a parliamentary majority unless (Pelonomi) Venson-Moitoi and her supporters leave the BDP to form a new organisation or join the opposition Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC). We view this as unlikely,” another international security organisation, Garda World projected. â€¨Venson-Moitoi is a former foreign minister who in April this year withdrew her challenge in the BDP’s internal elections to select its presidential candidate where President Masisi was later nominated.
In such previous elections, candidates were chosen unopposed. â€¨Other potential presidential, parliamentary and local council players in the coming election are; the Progressives (AP) and the Botswana Movement for Democracy (BMD).â€¨However, regardless of these political intrigues in parties contesting the coming elections and the unpredictable outcome of the results, Botswana’s economy has managed to weather the storm and is expected to remain stable. â€¨Garda World attributed Botswana’s strong economy in the face of a volatile election period to strong State and private institutions, a low debt burden and efforts to diversify the economy through measures including tax concessions in manufacturing.â€¨“We forecast GDP (Gross Domestic Growth) will grow by 4.6 percent in 2019.
This is likely to soften in 2010 to 4.3 percent given our forecast of slowing global growth. Botswana’s operational environment ranks among the best in Africa. Corruption is not considered a significant problem, with Botswana often being among the best in the region in surveys and indices measuring graft,” Garda World predicted.â€¨However, other analysts said despite Botswana’s operational environment ranking it among the best in Africa, President Masisi was being distracted in carrying out his constitutional duties as the Head of State, as he spends most of his time engaged in fierce battles with his new rival, former president Khama.
As a result, President Masisi is being criticised of failing to create employment for a huge market of unemployed youths, which stands now at 40 percent. His opponents also accuse President Masisi of making fairy-tale commitments in his election campaigns such as designing an electric car in Botswana when the electorate expects realistic messages from him that will improve their livelihoods.
“Bureaucratic issues, skills shortages, and electricity and water constraints are among operational challenges. Botswana is under pressing economic conditions with high levels of unemployment within the youth, high numbers of highly trained graduates without jobs, frequent retrenchments in the work place, poor or low wages, worker strikes precipitated by poor government/labour relations, student strikes over unpaid stipends and pressing land issues,” said Garda World.
Freedom House, an international civil rights organisation said President Masisi’s government was not doing enough to protect ordinary workers and ending human trafficking. “Employee abuses in retail stores, the tourism industry, and private security sector are an on-going problem. Botswana lacks a strong regulatory framework for labour brokers that dispatch workers to clients on short-term contracts, in which exploitation is common. Human trafficking remains a challenge,” Freedom House said. President Masisi became the caretaker president of Botswana in April last year, upon the end of the constitutional term of President Khama and he will serve in that capacity until lawmakers elect a new president after the October general election.
High Commissioner of the Federal Government of Nigeria to Botswana, His Excellency Umar Zainab Salisu, has challenged President Dr Mokgweetsi Masisi to move swiftly and lobby Africa’s richest man, Nigerian Billionaire, Aliko Dangote to invest in Botswana.
Speaking during a meeting with President Masisi at Office of President on Thursday Zainab Salisu said Dangote has expressed massive interest in setting up billion dollar industries in Botswana. “We have a lot of investors who wish to come and invest in Botswana , when we look at Botswana we don’t see Botswana itself , but we are lured by its geographic location , being in the centre of Southern Africa presents a good opportunity for strategic penetration into other markets of the region,” said Salisu.
As murder cases and violent incidents involving couples and or lovers continue to be recorded daily, Specially Elected Member of Parliament, Dr Unity Dow has called for more funding of non-governmental organizations and accelerated action from government to come up with laws that could inhibit would-be perpetrators of crimes related to Gender Based Violence (GBV).
Just after Dr Dow had deposited her views on this subject with this reporter, a young man in Molepolole opened fire on a married woman he was having an affair with; and ended her life instantly. While it is this heinous cases that get projected to the public space, the former minister argues that the secrecy culture is keeping other real GBV cases under wraps in many spaces in the country.
The former Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation said there is GBV all the time in all kinds of places. “We have become accustomed to stories of rapes, marital rapes, defilement of children, beatings and psychological violence and even killings,” she said.
Gender-based violence is a phenomenon deeply rooted in gender inequality, Dow is worried that there is absolutely no social punishment for perpetrators; they will continue to have the same friends, jobs, wives, homes, as before. Yet another factor, she said, is that there is little or no “justice” for victims of GBV.
The renowned activist said justice for GBV victims is not just the jailing of the perpetrator. “Justice for victims means an agile, victim-friendly, accessible (time, money and procedures) and restorative justice system.”
Asked what could be leading to a spike in Gender Based Violence cases or incidents, she observed that there is no one factor to which this spike can be attributed. “The most obvious factor is stress as a result of economic distress and or poverty. Poverty makes one vulnerable and open to compromises that they would otherwise not make. For perpetrators with anger management issues, economic stress leads to lashing out to those closest to them. Another factor is the disintegration of families and family values,” she opined.
According to Dow, no government anywhere in the world is doing enough, period. “We know the places and spaces where women and girls are unsafe. We know the challenges they face in their attempts to exit those spaces and places.” The former Judge of the High Court said GBV undermines the health, dignity, security and autonomy of its victims, yet it remains shrouded in the culture of silence.
Asked what could be done to arrest GBV cases, Dow said it is critical to involve and fund civil society organizations. She observed that much of the progress done in the area of women’s human rights was during the time when Botswana had strong and funded civil society organizations.
“The funding dried up when Botswana was declared a middle-income country but unfortunately external funding was not replaced by local funding,” she acknowledged.
Further Dow said relevant government institutions must be funded and strengthened.
“Thirdly, create a society in which it is not okay to humiliate, rape, beat or kill women. You create this by responding to GBV the same way we have responded to livestock theft. We need to create agile mechanisms that hear cases quickly and allow for the removal of suspected perpetrators from their homes, work places, boards, committees, etc.”
The former Minister said the much anticipated Inter-Ministerial Task Force on Gender Based Violence will have its work cut out for it. According to Dow, GBV is not just a justice issue, it’s not just a gender issue, but rather an issue that cuts across health, education, labour, economic, housing and politics. “As long as any one believes it is someone else’s problem, we will all have the problem,” she said.
In her view, Dow said every work, educational and other place must have a GBV Policy and/or Code of Conduct. “It is important that we acknowledge that the majority of men are law-abiding. The problem is their silence, in the face of injustice,” she observed.
The State has chosen to ignore intents by kingpins in the P100 billion scandal to sue for a combined P85 million as tables turn against the Directorate of Public Prosecution (DPP) in the matter.
Key players in the matter; the Directorate on Corruption and Economic Crime (DCEC) and Bank of Botswana (BoB) have eroded the prospects of success following the duo’s institutions’ appearance before parliamentary committees recently.