Manufacturing industry, often regarded as the ‘black sheep’ of this country’s economy for its stunted growth and meager contribution to the nation’s GDP, is a big culprit to the impairment of the local banking sector as it fails to pay loans.
According to Bank of Botswana’s Banking Supervision Annual Report 2018, manufacturing and trade continued to dominate the private business Non Performing Loans (NPLs) in 2018, accounting for 29.5 percent of the private business NPLs. The culprits were not small players as the Bank of Botswana report said, the increase in NPLs was mainly due to the default by a few large corporate clients of some banks.
Manufacturing accounts for 4 percent of the nation's GDP and is contributing to upward trend in NPLs. There have been plans for many years to improve the growth of the manufacturing industry in this country. The latest report suggest that manufacturing businesses either cannot fulfill debt obligations or collapse before paying borrowings, leaving banks with impaired loans.
When making a report on sectoral distribution of private business Non-performing Loans and Advances for years (between 2014 and 2018), the central bank said the NPLs in the manufacturing subsector has been growing for years. In 2014 NPLs were at 9 percent, 2015 at 8.5 percent, 2016 up with 10.6 percent. In 2017 the NPLs increased three times from 2016 with 30.9 percent, while during the year under review they were still up albeit falling by 1.4 percent.
Following the manufacturing subsector-in industries which fail to pay loans are; the restaurants and bars with 17.2 percent, then business services with 10.3 percent and in third place, is the construction subsector with 10 percent. The private businesses entities accounted for 51 percent, household which is predominantly unsecured loans accounted to 47 percent, while public sector 2 percent of total NPLs in 2018.
“In an environment of faster annual growth in credit during the year, the banking asset quality, as measured by non-performing loans, deteriorated marginally,” said Bank of Botswana Governor Moses Pelaelo. At the end of this year’s first quarter, FNBB released its year ended December 2018 and revealed that it has difficulty collecting interest and principal on their credits with a reflection of the non-performing loans (NPL) to gross advances ratio increasing from 6.6 percent to 7.6 percent year-on-year, with the NPL exposure increasing to P1.26 billion.
“This significant growth in NPLs is largely due to the deterioration of certain high-value FNB business segment exposures, and the relegations that have been experienced in the FNB Retail and WesBank segments,” explained FNBB directors in the financial report. While gross loans and advances grew by 7.7 percent from P54.2 billion in 2017 to P58.3 billion in 2018, a faster increase than 5.6 percent in 2017, the asset quality of the banking sector deteriorated as evidenced by the small increase in the ratio of non-performing loans (NPLs) to gross loans and advances from 5.3 percent in December 2017 to 5.5 percent in 2018.
According to Banking Supervision Annual Report 2018 ratio of non-performing loans (NPLs) to gross loans and advances ranged between 1.3 percent and 10.4 percent for the banking sector. The need to develop a diversified and robust manufacturing sector is a key agenda in government efforts to identify potential growth areas beyond the exploitation of its mineral wealth, which has been central to its transformation into a middle-income country, but which at the same time makes it susceptible to the vagaries of a fickle global economic order.
Marcian Concepts have been contracted by Selibe Phikwe Economic Unit (SPEDU) in a P230 million project to raise the town from its ghost status. The project is in the design and building phase of building an industrial hub for Phikwe; putting together an infrastructure in Bolelanoto and Senwelo industrial sites.
This project comes as a life-raft for Selibe Phikwe, a town which was turned into a ghost town when the area’s economic mainstay, BCL mine, closed four years ago. In that catastrophe, 5000 people lost their livelihoods as the town’s life sunk into a gloomy horizon. Businesses were closed and some migrated to better places as industrial places and malls became almost empty.
However, SPEDU has now started plans to breathe life into the town. Information reaching this publication is that Marcian Concepts is now on the ground at Bolelanoto and Senwelo and works have commenced. Marcian as a contractor already promises to hire Phikwe locals only, even subcontract only companies from the area as a way to empower the place’s economy.
The procurement method for the tender is Open Domestic bidding which means Joint Ventures with foreign companies is not allowed. According to Marcian Concepts General Manager, Andre Strydom, in an interview with this publication, the project will come with 150 to 200 jobs. The project is expected to take 15 months at a tune of P230 531 402. 76. Marcian will put together construction of roadworks, storm-water drains, water reticulation, street lighting and telecommunication infrastructure. This tender was flouted last year August, but was awarded in June this year. This project is seen as the beginning of Phikwe’s revival and investors will be targeted to the area after the town has worn the ghost city status for almost half a decade.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has slashed its outlook the world economy projecting a significantly deeper recession and slower recovery than it anticipated just two months ago.
On Wednesday when delivering its World Economic Outlook report titled “A long difficult Ascent” the Washington Based global lender said it now expects global gross domestic product to shrink 4.9% this year, more than the 3% predicted in April. For 2021, IMF experts have projected growth of 5.4%, down from 5.8%. “We are projecting a somewhat less severe though still deep recession in 2020, relative to our June forecast,” said Gita Gopinath Economic Counsellor and Director of Research.
The struggle of humanity is now how to dribble past the ‘Great Pandemic’ in order to salvage a lean economic score. Botswana is already working on dwindling fiscal accounts, budget deficit, threatened foreign reserves and the GDP data that is screaming recession.
Latest data by think tank and renowned rating agency, Moody’s Investor Service, is that Botswana’s fiscal status is on the red and it is mostly because of its mineral-dependency garment and tourism-related taxation. Botswana decided to close borders as one of the containment measures of Covid-19; trade and travellers have been locked out of the country. Moody’s also acknowledges that closing borders by countries like Botswana results in the collapse of tourism which will also indirectly weigh on revenue through lower import duties, VAT receipts and other taxes.
Latest economic data shows that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter of 2020 with a decrease of 27 percent. One of the factors that led to contraction of the local economy is the suspension of air travel occasioned by COVID-19 containment measures impacted on the number of tourists entering through the country’s borders and hence affecting the output of the hotels and restaurants industry. This will also be weighed down by, according to Moody’s, emerging markets which will see government losing average revenue worth 2.1 percentage points (pps) of GDP in 2020, exceeding the 1.0 pps loss in advanced economies (AEs).
“Fiscal revenue in emerging markets is particularly vulnerable to this current crisis because of concentrated revenue structures and less sophisticated tax administrations than those in AEs. Oil exporters will see the largest falls but revenue volatility is a common feature of their credit profiles historically,” says Moody’s. The domino effects of containment measures could be seen cracking all sectors of the local economy as taxes from outside were locked out by the closure of borders hence dwindling tax revenue.
Moody’s has placed Botswana among oil importers, small, tourism-reliant economies which will see the largest fall in revenue. Botswana is in the top 10 of that pecking order where Moody’s pointed out recently that other resource-rich countries like Botswana (A2 negative) will also face a large drop in fiscal revenue.
This situation of countries’ revenue on the red is going to stay stubborn for a long run. Moody’s predicts that the spending pressures faced by governments across the globe are unlikely to ease in the short term, particularly because this crisis has emphasized the social role governments perform in areas like healthcare and labour markets.
For countries like Botswana, these spending pressures are generally exacerbated by a range of other factors like a higher interest burden, infrastructure deficiencies, weaker broader public sector, higher subsidies, lower incomes and more precarious employment. As a result, most of the burden for any fiscal consolidation is likely to fall on the revenue side, says Moody’s.
Moody’s then moves to the revenue spin of taxation. The rating agency looked at the likelihood and probability of sovereigns to raise up revenue by increasing tax to offset what was lost in mineral revenue and tourism-related tax revenue. Moody’s said the capacity to raise tax revenue distinguishes governments from other debt issuers. “In theory, governments can change a given tax system as they wish, subject to the relevant legislative process and within the constraints of international law. In practice, however, there are material constraints,” says Moody’s.
‘‘The coronavirus crisis will lead to long-lasting revenue losses for emerging market sovereigns because their ability to implement and enforce effective revenue-raising measures in response will be an important credit driver over the next few years because of their sizeable spending pressures and the subdued recovery in the global economy we expect next year.’’
According to Moody’s, together with a rise in stimulus and healthcare spending related to the crisis, the think tank expects this drop in revenue will trigger a sizeable fiscal deterioration across emerging market sovereigns. Most countries, including Botswana, are under pressure of widening their tax bases, Moody’s says that this will be challenging. “Even if governments reversed or do not extend tax-easing measures implemented in 2020 to support the economy through the coronavirus shock, which would be politically challenging, this would only provide a modest boost to revenue, especially as these measures were relatively modest in most emerging markets,” says Moody’s.
Botswana has been seen internationally as a ‘tax ease’ country and its taxes are seen as lower when compared to its regional counterparts. This country’s name has also been mentioned in various international investigative journalism tax evasion reports. In recent years there was a division of opinions over whether this country can stretch its tax base. But like other sovereigns who have tried but struggled to increase or even maintain their tax intake before the crisis, Botswana will face additional challenges, according to Moody’s.
“Additional measures to reduce tax evasion and cutting tax expenditure should support the recovery in government revenue, albeit from low levels,” advised Moody’s. Botswana’s tax revenue to the percentage of the GDP was 27 percent in 2008, dropped to 23 percent in 2010 to 23 percent before rising to 27 percent again in 2012. In years 2013 and 2014 the percentage went to 25 percent before it took a slip to decline in respective years of 2015 up to now where it is at 19.8 percent.