Global growth has stabilized, with world output estimated to have grown by 3.7 per cent in 2018 and projected to grow by the same magnitude in 2019.
With the volatility of commodity prices and the rise of trade tensions between the United States and its main trading partners, the external environment has created increasingly adverse conditions for Africa’s growth. According to African Development Bank, higher interest rates in the United States and the strengthening of the US Dollar have put pressure on the currencies of developing countries and increased the costs of borrowing.
While the increase in energy prices gave relief for oil producers, it also worsened the terms of trade for oil importers. African Development Bank said in 2018, Africa’s Gross Domestic Product GDP growth reached an estimated 3.5 per cent, roughly the same as in 2017 and up by 1.4 percentage point from 2.1 per cent in the previous year 2016. In the short term, growth is projected to accelerate to 4 per cent in 2019 and 4.1 per cent in 2020. These projections are higher than those of other emerging and developing regions.
However, domestic risks, in addition to external constraints, could limit the continent’s growth. These include climate change, security and migration concerns, increasing vulnerability to debt distress in some countries, and uncertainties associated with elections and political transitions. In 2018, ADB reported, while East Africa remained the fastest growing region at 5.7 per cent, North Africa contributed the most to overall African GDP growth, accounting for 37 per cent.
The general drivers of Africa’s economic growth have been gradually rebalancing, moving from consumption to investment and exports. The recent commodity price rebound and particularly the increase in oil prices supported the recovery of commodity exporters. Overall, 17 African countries achieved real GDP growth higher than 5 per cent in 2018, and 21 between 3 and 5 per cent.
Only five African countries recorded a recession in 2018, down from eight in the two previous years. Six of the world’s ten-fastest growing economies (Burkina Faso, Cote d-Ivoire, Ethiopia, Libya, Rwanda and Senegal) are African countries. Some of the non-resource-rich countries had high growth rates in 2018, including Cote d’Ivoire (7.4 per cent), Rwanda (7.2 per cent) and Senegal (7 per cent), supported by agricultural production, consumer demand and public investment.
Economic fundamentals in most African countries continued to improve, thanks to fiscal consolidation along with massive investments in infrastructure, major roads in financial innovation, increased domestic demand, and substantial improvements in the investment climate (more than a third of global reforms). On average, Africa’s fiscal deficit declined from 5.8 per cent in 2017 to an estimated 4.5 per cent in 2018, while inflation fell from 12.6 per cent in 2017 to 10.9 per cent in 2018.
However, growth rates remain insufficient to address the persistent challenges of high unemployment, low agricultural productivity, inadequate infrastructure and fiscal and current deficits as well as debt vulnerabilities. Although tax revenues and spending efficiency have improved, domestic resource mobilization has generally remained well short of potential. For instance, 16 African countries were classified as being in debt distress or at high risk of debt distress at the end of 2018.
Debt in Africa has risen steadily in recent years after having declined and stabilized under the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries Initiative, and the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative. Africa’s public debt represented 58 per cent of GDP in 2017, up from 36 per cent in 2008. The drivers of the rise in debt include low commodity prices, higher infrastructure spending, depreciating exchange rates, rising costs of foreign currency borrowing and greater defence and security spending. The report said there is, however, significant heterogeneity across countries and regions. At the end of 2017, the government debt-to-GDP ratio was below 40 per cent for 16 of 52 countries with data and above 100 per cent for six.
According to ADB, to ensure a high social return on debt-financed public investment, it is important to strengthen the debt-investment link. In this regard, the Bank’s multidimensional approach to mitigating the risk of debt distress in Africa will include tapping new sources of funding to lower the cost of debt; engaging in policy dialogue to raise awareness of debt sustainability at the highest political level; laying the foundation for efficient use of existing resources to limit recourse to additional debt; strengthening country capability to manage debt; supporting efficient and productive use of debt; and building fiscal capacity for increased domestic resource mobilization.
ADB further indicated that Africa has the world’s fastest growing population. The continent’s young labor force is projected to grow at an average rate of 2.75 per cent a year between 2016 and 2030, so an inclusive and pro-employment growth path is crucial to creating enough jobs. In addition, the adverse impacts of climate change, now pronounced, are projected to become even starker by 2050, undermining Africa’s agricultural performance and water and energy security.
These challenges, ADB stressed that call for significant investment and external funding, involving the private sector, particularly in regional infrastructure development and financing. The continent faces a large annual gap of between USD 68 billion and 108 billion in meeting its infrastructure investment needs, estimated at USD 130 to 170 billion a year. African countries must therefore fast-track economic transformation and structural reforms and continue to tap into identified opportunities.
Fostering regional integration would increase trade and economic cooperation and enhance the delivery of regional public goods, according to African Development Bank. The bank said this will also enable countries to move up the ladder through socialization and reverse external imbalances. The African Continental Free Trade Agreement, upon entry force, will contribute to the creation of the world’s biggest free trade area in terms of the number countries involved, and will be an important driver of sustained economic growth.
In line with its High 5 priorities, the Africa Development Bank is ideally placed to enhance social and economic inclusiveness in Regional Member Countries through infrastructure development, agro-industrialization, and improved access to finance and support for regional integration. As a knowledge institution with an overview of Africa, the bank helps to produce and manage knowledge, build capacity and provide sound policy advice to member countries’ decision-makers. It also aims at boosting blended finance for attracting private investment at scale. In this context, the results of the first Africa Investment Forum, organized by the bank in Johannesburg in November 2018, exceeded expectations, resulting in 49 deals totalling 38.7 Billion US Dollars.
The future of Botswana’s largest copper and silver operation, Khoemacau Copper Mining, looks promising as the new owners, MMG Group, commit to the mine’s expansion plans. MMG, an Australian headquartered company owned by China, has expressed its dedication to doubling Khoemacau’s production and transforming it into one of the most significant high-grade copper operations in Africa.
Nan Wang, the Executive General Manager for Australia and Africa at MMG, stated that while the immediate focus is on maintaining a consistent production level of 60ktpa, there are solid plans to increase Khoemacau’s production capacity. The company aims to double its production from 3.65Mtpa to 8.15Mtpa, resulting in an increase in payable copper from approximately 60ktpa to around 130ktpa.
To achieve this expansion, Khoemacau has completed a pre-feasibility study on the project and a solar power initiative. The next step is to conduct a feasibility study, which will pave the way for increased production capacity. Additionally, Khoemacau has identified extensive exploration opportunities across its license area, positioning the company for an exciting new phase of development.
The current Khoemacau operation reached full production and nameplate capacity in December 2022, following over a decade of investment totaling over P10 billion. This significant investment allowed for an intense exploration program, resulting in the development of the most automated underground mining operation in Botswana. The first concentrate was produced in June 2021, and the product entered the export market in July of the same year. Throughout 2022, the company has been working on the pre-feasibility study for the expansion project, with the feasibility study scheduled for the following year.
The expansion plans will involve the construction of a new world-class process plant in Zone 5, where the current mining of ore takes place. This new plant will be larger than the existing one in Boseto, which currently receives ore from Zone 5. The expansion will also involve the development of new underground mines, including Mango, Zone 5 North, and Zeta North East. These additional mines will bring the total number of underground shafts at Khoemacau to six. The ramp-up of production from the expansion is expected to occur in 2026.
Khoemacau, which acquired assets in the Kalahari Copper Belt after the liquidation of Discovery Metals in 2015, currently employs over 1500 people, with the majority being Batswana. The Khoemacau Mine is located in north-west Botswana, in the emerging Kalahari Copperbelt. It boasts the 10th largest African Copper Mineral Resource by total contained copper metal and is one of the largest copper sedimentary systems in the world outside of the Central African Copperbelt.
The mine utilizes underground long hole stoping as its mining method and conventional sulphide flotation for processing. Resource drilling results have shown the existing resources to have continuity at depth, and there are several exploration targets within the tenement package that have the potential to extend the mine’s life or increase productivity.
The Zone 5 mine has already ramped up production, and further expansion in the next five years will be supported by the deposits in the Zone 5 Group. The estimated mine life is a minimum of 20 years, with the potential to extend beyond 30 years by tapping into other deposits within the tenement package.
In conclusion, the commitment of MMG Group to Khoemacau’s expansion plans signifies a bright future for Botswana’s largest copper and silver operation. With the completion of pre-feasibility and feasibility studies, as well as significant investments, Khoemacau is poised to become one of Africa’s most important high-grade copper operations. The expansion project will not only increase production capacity but also create new job opportunities and contribute to the economic growth of Botswana.
Khoemacau Copper Mining, a leading copper mining company, has recently announced its acquisition by MMG Limited, a global resources company based in Australia. This acquisition marks a significant milestone for both companies and demonstrates their commitment to continued investment, growth, and sustainability in the mining industry.
MMG Limited is a renowned mining company that operates copper and other base metals projects across four continents. With its headquarters in Melbourne, Australia, MMG has a strong track record in mining and exploration. The company currently operates several successful mines, including the Dugald River zinc mine and the Rosebery polymetallic mine in Australia, the Kinsevere copper mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo, and the Las Bambas Mine in Peru. MMG’s extensive experience and expertise in mining operations make it an ideal partner for Khoemacau.
MMG’s commitment to sustainability aligns perfectly with Khoemacau’s values and priorities. Khoemacau has always placed a strong emphasis on safety, health, community, and the environment. MMG shares this commitment and applies the principles of good corporate governance as set out in the Corporate Governance Code of the Hong Kong Listing Rules. As a member of the International Council on Mining and Metals (ICMM), MMG adheres to sustainable mining principles, ensuring responsible and ethical practices in all its operations.
Over the past 12 years, Khoemacau’s current shareholders have made significant investments in the development of the company. With approximately US$1 billion deployed in the project, Khoemacau has successfully transformed from an exploration and discovery phase to a fully-fledged operating copper mine. The completion of the ramp-up of the Zone 5/Boseto operations has set the stage for the next phase of expansion.
With the acquisition by MMG, Khoemacau is poised for an exciting new chapter in its development. The completion of a pre-feasibility study on the Khoemacau expansion and a solar power project has paved the way for increased production capacity. The feasibility study will be the next step in doubling the production capacity from 3.65 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) to 8.15 Mtpa, resulting in a significant increase in payable copper from approximately 60,000 tonnes per annum (ktpa) to 130,000 ktpa. Additionally, Khoemacau has extensive exploration opportunities across its license area, further enhancing its growth potential.
The CEO of Khoemacau, Johan Ferreira, expressed his gratitude to the current owners for their stewardship of the company and their successful transformation of Khoemacau into a fully operational copper mine. He also highlighted the company’s focus on the expansion study and its vision for the future with MMG. Ferreira emphasized that the partnership with MMG will ensure Khoemacau’s long-term success, delivering employment, community benefits, and economic development in Botswana.
MMG Chairman, Jiqing Xu, echoed Ferreira’s sentiments, stating that the acquisition of Khoemacau aligns with MMG’s growth strategy and vision. Xu emphasized MMG’s commitment to creating opportunities for all stakeholders, including shareholders, employees, and communities. He expressed confidence in Khoemacau’s expansion potential and the company’s ability to realize its full potential with the support of MMG.
The sale of Khoemacau to MMG is subject to certain conditions precedent and approvals, with the expected closing date in the first half of 2024. This acquisition represents a significant step forward for both companies and reinforces their commitment to sustainable mining practices, responsible resource development, and long-term growth in the mining industry.
In conclusion, the acquisition of Khoemacau Copper Mining by MMG Limited signifies a new era of investment, growth, and sustainability in the mining industry. With MMG’s extensive experience and commitment to responsible mining practices, Khoemacau is well-positioned for future success. The partnership between the two companies will not only drive economic development but also ensure the safety and well-being of employees, benefit local communities, and contribute to the overall growth of Botswana’s mining sector.
The Botswana Power Corporation (BPC) has taken a significant step towards diversifying its energy mix by signing a power purchase agreement with Sekaname Energy for the production of power from coal bed methane in Mmashoro village. This agreement marks a major milestone for the energy sector in Botswana as the country transitions from a coal-fired power generation system to a new energy mix comprising coal, gas, solar, and wind.
The CEO of BPC, David Kgoboko, explained that the Power Purchase Agreement is for a 6MW coal bed methane proof of concept project to be developed around Mmashoro village. This project aligns with BPC’s strategic initiatives to increase the proportion of low-carbon power generation sources and renewable energy in the energy mix. The use of coal bed methane for power generation is an exciting development as it provides a hybrid solution with non-dispatchable sources of generation like solar PV. Without flexible base-load generation, the deployment of non-dispatchable solar PV generation would be limited.
Kgoboko emphasized that BPC is committed to enabling the development of a gas supply industry in Botswana. Sekaname Energy, along with other players in the coal bed methane exploration business, is a key and strategic partner for BPC. The successful development of a gas supply industry will enable the realization of a secure and sustainable energy mix for the country.
The Minister of Minerals & Energy, Lefoko Moagi, expressed his support for the initiative by the private sector to develop a gas industry in Botswana. The country has abundant coal reserves, and the government fully supports the commercial extraction of coal bed methane gas for power generation. The government guarantees that BPC will purchase the generated electricity at reasonable tariffs, providing cash flow to the developers and enabling them to raise equity and debt funding for gas extraction development.
Moagi highlighted the benefits of developing a gas supply industry, including diversified primary energy sources, economic diversification, import substitution, and employment creation. He commended Sekaname Energy for undertaking a pilot project to prove the commercial viability of extracting coal bed methane for power generation. If successful, this initiative would unlock the potential of a gas production industry in Botswana.
Sekaname Energy CEO, Peter Mmusi, emphasized the multiple uses of natural gas and its potential to uplift Botswana’s economy. In addition to power generation, natural gas can be used for gas-to-liquids, compressed natural gas, and fertilizer production. Mmusi revealed that Sekaname has already invested $57 million in exploration and infrastructure throughout its resource area. The company plans to spend another $10-15 million for the initial 6MW project and aims to invest over $500 million in the future for a 90MW power plant. Sekaname’s goal is to assist BPC in becoming a net exporter of power within the region and to contribute to Botswana’s transition to cleaner energy production.
In conclusion, the power purchase agreement between BPC and Sekaname Energy for the production of power from coal bed methane in Mmashoro village is a significant step towards diversifying Botswana’s energy mix. This project aligns with BPC’s strategic initiatives to increase the proportion of low-carbon power generation sources and renewable energy. The government’s support for the development of a gas supply industry and the commercial extraction of coal bed methane will bring numerous benefits to the country, including economic diversification, import substitution, and employment creation. With the potential to become a net exporter of power and a cleaner energy producer, Botswana is poised to make significant strides in its energy sector.