Africa is more vulnerable than any other region to the world's changing weather patterns – this is according to Richard Washington, a professor of climate science at the School of Geography and the Environment at Oxford University in the United Kingdom.
Washington alluded to this in a report he released recently. He says the African continent will be hardest hit by climate change because African society is very closely coupled with the climate system citing that hundreds of millions of people depend on rainfall to grow their food. Second to Washington’s observations is that the African climate system is controlled by an extremely complex mix of large-scale weather systems, many from distant parts of the planet. “In comparison with almost all other inhabited regions, it is vastly understudied, therefore capable of all sorts of surprises,” he said.
Thirdly the Oxford academic gaffer observed that the degree of expected climate change is large. “The two most extensive land-based end-of-century projected decreases in rainfall anywhere on the planet occur over Africa; one over North Africa and the other over southern Africa” writes Washington
Furthermore the UK based researcher says in Africa the capacity for adaptation to climate change is low; saying poverty equates to reduced choice at the individual level while governance generally fails to priorities and act on climate change “African climate is replete with complexity and marvels. The Sahara is the world's largest desert with the deepest layer of intense heating anywhere on Earth, this is proving to be a challenge in the future,” he said.
The analysis by Washington also underscored that June and July , the most extensive and most intense dust storms found anywhere on the planet fill the air with fine particles that interfere with climate in ways Africa quite don't quite understand. On Africa’s monsoon altering patterns Professor Washington said the Saharan desert region is almost completely devoid of weather measurements yet it is a key driver of the West African monsoon system, which brings three months of rain that interrupts the nine-month long dry season across the Sahel region, south of the desert.
For the decades following the 1960s and peaking in 1984, there was a downturn of rainfall of some 30% across the Sahel, which led to famine and the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people and the displacement of many millions. No other region has documented such a long and spatially extensive drought.
Evidence points to Western industrial aerosol pollution, which cooled parts of the global ocean, thereby altering the monsoon system, as a cause. The currently observed recovery of the rains is projected to continue through the 21st Century, particularly over the central and eastern Sahel.“But that change seems to depend on exactly where future heating in the central Sahara peaks, emphasizing cruelly the region we least understands,” observed Washington.
In Southern Africa Richard Washington says delay in the onset and a drying of early summer rains, is predicted to worsen in forthcoming decades. “Temperatures there are predicted to rise by five degrees or more, particularly in the parts of Namibia, Botswana and Zambia that are already intolerably hot,” he said. Meanwhile over Kenya and Tanzania the UK based Climate science expert says the long rains from March to May start later and end sooner – leading to an overall decrease in rainfall.
According to Richard Washington this observed change sits uncomfortably next to predictions of a wetter future in the same season – problem scientists have termed the East African Climate Paradox. For Central Africa, one of three regions on the planet where thunderstorms drive the rest of the planets tropical and sub-tropical weather systems, lives perilously close to the rainfall minimum needed to support the world's second largest rainforest system.
The Expert says even a little less rainfall in the future could endanger the forest and its massive carbon store. “We know remarkably little about that climate system – it is scarcely even monitored – there are more reporting rain gauges in the UK county of Oxfordshire than the entire Congo Basin,” he said.
Africa's complex climate system is, unusually, influenced by all three global ocean basins. Emerging from one of those rapidly warming oceans, tropical cyclones Idai and Kenneth in March and April 2019 destroyed parts of Mozambique, Zimbabwe and Malawi, with Kenneth following a particularly unusual path over Tanzania.
On a positive note Richard Washington says however on the scientific front there is hope. “In collaborative efforts we are working intensely hard to improve climate prediction. Projections of climate change depends on climate models of which there are dozens, each as complicated to understand as the real world,” he said.
He explained that through efforts such as the ongoing Future Climate for Africa (FCFA), a programme funded by the UK's Department for International Development and Natural Environment Research Council, the experience and insights of African climate scientists have led to a discernible jump in scientist’s ability to understand and model African climate.
Washington further explained that each region and sub-region of Africa is changing differently but an emerging commonality is a shift towards more intense rainfall – even where there is observed and projected future drying. “The rainfall arrives in shorter bursts, causing more runoff and longer dry-spells in between. New models, developed as part of FCFA, are now run at extremely high resolution with grid spacing of around 4km (2.5 miles) for the entire continent” he said.
While there is no hard-and-fast rule in politics, former Molepolole North Member of Parliament, Mohamed Khan says populism acts in the body politic have forced him to quit active partisan politics. He brands this ancient ascription of politics as fake and says it lowers the moral compass of the society.
Khan who finally tasted political victory in the 2014 elections after numerous failed attempts, has decided to leave the ‘dirty game’, and on his way out he characteristically lashed at the current political leaders; including his own party president, Advocate Duma Boko. “I arrived at this decision because I have noticed that there are no genuine politics and politicians. The current leaders, Boko and President Dr Mokgweetsi Masisi are fake politicians who are just practicing populist politics to feed their egos,” he said.
Former Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) parliamentary hopeful, Lawrence Ookeditse has rejected the idea of taking up a crucial role in the Botswana Patriotic Front (BPF) Central Committee following his arrival in the party this week. According to sources close to development, BPF power brokers are coaxing Ookeditse to take up the secretary general position, left vacant by death of Roseline Panzirah-Matshome in November 2020.
Ookeditse’s arrival at BPF is projected to cause conflicts, as some believe they are being overlooked, in favour of a new arrival. The former ruling party strategist has however ruled out the possibility of serving in the party central committee as secretary general, and committed that he will turn down the overture if availed to him by party leadership.
Ookeditse, nevertheless, has indicated that if offered another opportunity to serve in a different capacity, he will gladly accept. “I still need to learn the party, how it functions and all its structures; I must be guided, but given any responsibility I will serve the party as long as it is not the SG position.”
“I joined the BPF with a clear conscious, to further advance my voice and the interests of the constituents of Nata/Gweta which I believe the BDP is no longer capable to execute.” Ookeditse speaks of abject poverty in his constituency and prevalent unemployment among the youth, issues he hopes his new home will prioritise.
He dismissed further allegations that he resigned from the BDP because he was not rewarded for his efforts towards the 2019 general elections. After losing in the BDP primaries in 2018, Ookeditse said, he was offered a job in government but declined to take the post due to his political ambitions. Ookeditse stated that he rejected the offer because, working for government clashed with his political journey.
He insists there are many activists who are more deserving than him; he could have chosen to take up the opportunity that was before him but his conscious for the entire populace’s wellbeing held him back. Ookeditse said there many people in the party who also contributed towards party success, asserting that he only left the BDP because he was concerned about the greater good of the majority not individualism purposes.
According to observers, Ookeditse has been enticed by the prospects of contesting Nata/Gweta constituency in the 2024 general election, following the party’s impressive performance in the last general elections. Nata/Gweta which is a traditional BDP stronghold saw its numbers shrinking to a margin of 1568. BDP represented by Polson Majaga garnered 4754, while BPF which had fielded Joe Linga received 3186 with UDC coming a distant with 1442 votes.
There are reports that Linga will pave way for Ookeditse to contest the constituency in 2024 and the latter is upbeat about the prospects of being elected to parliament. Despite Ookeditse dismissing reports that he is eying the secretary general position, insiders argue that the position will be availed to him nevertheless.
Alternative favourite for the position is Vuyo Notha who is the party Deputy Secretary General. Notha has since assumed duties of the secretariat office on the interim basis. BPF politburo is expected to meet on 25th of January 2020, where the vacancy will be filled.
Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) big wigs have decided to cancel a retreat with the party legislators this weekend owing to increasing numbers of Covid-19 cases. The meeting was billed for this weekend at a place that was to be confirmed, however a communique from the party this past Tuesday reversed the highly anticipated meeting.
“We received a communication this week that the meeting will not go as planned because of rapid spread of Covid-19,” one member of the party Central Committee confirmed to this publication. The gathering was to follow the first of its kind held late last year at party Treasurer Satar Dada’s place.