Global tobacco use prevalence rates are declining – WHO
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The third edition of the World Health Organization WHO report on trends in prevalence of tobacco use says tobacco kills and sickens millions of people every year. Around 8 million people died from a tobacco-related disease in 2017. According to the report, the number of annual deaths can be expected to keep growing even after rates of tobacco use start to decline, because tobacco-related diseases take time to become apparent.
A global commitment to reversing the tobacco epidemic was made in 2003 when member states of the World Health Organization adopted the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control, which lays out specific, evidence-based actions that all parties to the convention should take to effectively reduce demand for tobacco. World Health Organisation says in 2000, around a third, or 33.3% of the global population both sexes combined and aged 15 years and older, were current users of some form of tobacco.
By 2015, this rate had declined to about a quarter, or 24.9 per cent of the global population. Assuming that current efforts in tobacco control are maintained in all countries, the rate is projected to decline further to around a fifth (20.9%) of the global population by 2025. It was further shared that in the same year 2000, around half of men aged 15 years and older were current users of some form of tobacco. By 2015, the proportion of men using tobacco had declined to 40.3%.
By 2025, the rate is projected to decline to 35.1 per cent. Around one in six women or 16.7 per cent aged 15 years and older were current users of some form of tobacco. In 2015, the proportion of women using tobacco had declined to under one in ten. By 2025, the report says the rate will decline to 6.7%. In 2000, according to WHO report, the proportion of males using any form of tobacco was three times the proportion of users among women. By 2015 the rate for males was more than four times the rate of females.
By 2025, the rate for males is expected to be five times the rate of females. The 2025 target set under the WHO Global Action Plan for the Prevention and Control of Non-Communicable Diseases 2013-2020 specified that countries should strive to achieve a 30 per cent reduction in tobacco use prevalence using 2010 level as baseline. This translates to a maximum total tobacco use prevalence rate of 19.1 per cent for the total population aged 15 years and older, 30.2 per cent for males and 8.0 per cent for females.
The trend analyses undertaken for this report indicate that the reduction target will not be met for males but will likely be met for females. The projected 2025 prevalence rate of 35.1 per cent for males would be short of the target by an absolute 4.9 per cent. The projected 2025 prevalence rate of 8.0 per cent for females would exceed the target by 1.3 per cent.
Overall, the report indicated that the global target for the total population will fall short of meeting the overall global target of 19.1 per cent by 1.8 per cent. Instead of achieving the 30% relative reduction globally called for in the NCD target, the relative reduction likely to be achieved based on current efforts is 23.4 per cent (18.8 per cent and 41.2 per cent for males and females respectively)
Further, the report noted that there has been a steady decline in any tobacco use for both males and females in each age group over the observed period 2000-2015. The age-specific rates are projected to continue declining to 2025 for both males and females. The age-specific rates peak at age group 45-54 for men and, for women, at age group 55-64 in some years and 65-74 in others. The report said the absolute prevalence levels have been consistently higher for males than those for females in each age group.
Among young people aged 15-24 globally; the average rate of tobacco use has declined from 22.6 per cent in the year 2000 to 17.0 per cent in 2015. The rate in 2025 is projected to be 14.2 per cent. Among men in the age group 15-24, the report stressed that tobacco use has declined from 35.3% in the year 2000 to 27.6 per cent in 2015. The rate in 2025 is projected to be 23.6%. Among women in this age group, the 2000 rate of 9.3% reduced to 5.6% by 2015, and is projected to continue downwards to 4.2% by 2025.
The age-standardized tobacco use prevalence rates are declining in all WHO regions, the report claims. In the year 2000, it is estimated that the South-East Asia region had total tobacco use rates at around 47%. This was the highest average rate of any WHO region. The lowest average rate was estimated to be 18.5% in the African region. These two regions have continued to be the regions with highest and lowest average rates respectively, but the gap between them have narrowed and are expected to keep narrowing to 2025. The South-East Asia region is tracking towards an average prevalence rate in 2025 of 25.1 per cent and the African region is tracking towards 11.2 per cent.
Focusing on the period 2010-2025- the period of interest for monitoring reduction targets under the WHO Global Action Plan for Prevention and Control of Non-Communicable Diseases 2013-2020- the only WHO region expected to achieve a 30 per cent relative reduction in prevalence of current tobacco use by 2025 is the Americas region.
The average rate of current tobacco use in Americas region is expected to fall from around 23% in 2010 to 15% in 2025, assuming tobacco control efforts in Americas region countries are maintained at current levels. Western Pacific is the region expected to experience the least decline in the average prevalence rate- a relative reduction of around 12% between 2010 and 2025. The other region with a relatively slow rate of decline is the European region, currently tracking towards an 18% relative reduction between 2010 and 2025.
According to this report, in 2000, the highest average prevalence rates among males were in the South-East Asian region (62.5%), followed by the Western Pacific region (55.6%). The trend in these two regions crossed over in 2014 and the Western Pacific region is now projected to have the highest rates among males in 2025, averaging 46.4%. The South-East Asian region average is projected to reach 42.9%.
The report said the Eastern Mediterranean and European regions are in the middle ground, with very similar prevalence levels and trends among men in all years, from 46-47% in 2000 to 30-31% in 2025. The African region is the region with the lowest average rates for males, and is projected to remain lower than other regions until 2025, when the rates for the Americas region to around the same level (20.4%).
Among males, only countries in the Americas region will collectively achieve a 30% relative reduction in the average prevalence by 2025, the report said. All other regions except the Western Pacific region are on track to reduce male prevalence rates between 19% and 22%. Western Pacific region countries are likely to achieve close to a 10% reduction between 2010 and 2025.
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BPC Signs PPA with Sekaname Energy
The Botswana Power Corporation (BPC) has taken a significant step towards diversifying its energy mix by signing a power purchase agreement with Sekaname Energy for the production of power from coal bed methane in Mmashoro village. This agreement marks a major milestone for the energy sector in Botswana as the country transitions from a coal-fired power generation system to a new energy mix comprising coal, gas, solar, and wind.
The CEO of BPC, David Kgoboko, explained that the Power Purchase Agreement is for a 6MW coal bed methane proof of concept project to be developed around Mmashoro village. This project aligns with BPC’s strategic initiatives to increase the proportion of low-carbon power generation sources and renewable energy in the energy mix. The use of coal bed methane for power generation is an exciting development as it provides a hybrid solution with non-dispatchable sources of generation like solar PV. Without flexible base-load generation, the deployment of non-dispatchable solar PV generation would be limited.
Kgoboko emphasized that BPC is committed to enabling the development of a gas supply industry in Botswana. Sekaname Energy, along with other players in the coal bed methane exploration business, is a key and strategic partner for BPC. The successful development of a gas supply industry will enable the realization of a secure and sustainable energy mix for the country.
The Minister of Minerals & Energy, Lefoko Moagi, expressed his support for the initiative by the private sector to develop a gas industry in Botswana. The country has abundant coal reserves, and the government fully supports the commercial extraction of coal bed methane gas for power generation. The government guarantees that BPC will purchase the generated electricity at reasonable tariffs, providing cash flow to the developers and enabling them to raise equity and debt funding for gas extraction development.
Moagi highlighted the benefits of developing a gas supply industry, including diversified primary energy sources, economic diversification, import substitution, and employment creation. He commended Sekaname Energy for undertaking a pilot project to prove the commercial viability of extracting coal bed methane for power generation. If successful, this initiative would unlock the potential of a gas production industry in Botswana.
Sekaname Energy CEO, Peter Mmusi, emphasized the multiple uses of natural gas and its potential to uplift Botswana’s economy. In addition to power generation, natural gas can be used for gas-to-liquids, compressed natural gas, and fertilizer production. Mmusi revealed that Sekaname has already invested $57 million in exploration and infrastructure throughout its resource area. The company plans to spend another $10-15 million for the initial 6MW project and aims to invest over $500 million in the future for a 90MW power plant. Sekaname’s goal is to assist BPC in becoming a net exporter of power within the region and to contribute to Botswana’s transition to cleaner energy production.
In conclusion, the power purchase agreement between BPC and Sekaname Energy for the production of power from coal bed methane in Mmashoro village is a significant step towards diversifying Botswana’s energy mix. This project aligns with BPC’s strategic initiatives to increase the proportion of low-carbon power generation sources and renewable energy. The government’s support for the development of a gas supply industry and the commercial extraction of coal bed methane will bring numerous benefits to the country, including economic diversification, import substitution, and employment creation. With the potential to become a net exporter of power and a cleaner energy producer, Botswana is poised to make significant strides in its energy sector.
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UDC deadlock: Boko, Ndaba, Reatile meet
It is not clear as to when, but before taking a festive break in few weeks’ time UDC leaders would have convened to address the ongoing deadlock surrounding constituency allocation in the negotiations for the 2024 elections. The leaders, Duma Boko of the UDC, Mephato Reggie Reatile of the BPF, and Ndaba Gaolathe of the AP, are expected to meet and discuss critical matters and engage in dialogue regarding the contested constituencies.
The negotiations hit a stalemate when it came to allocating constituencies, prompting the need for the leaders to intervene. Representatives from the UDC, AP, and BPF were tasked with negotiating the allocation, with Dr. Patrick Molotsi and Dr. Philip Bulawa representing the UDC, and Dr. Phenyo Butale and Wynter Mmolotsi representing the AP.
The leaders’ meeting is crucial in resolving the contentious issue of constituency allocation, which has caused tension among UDC members and potential candidates for the 2024 elections. After reaching an agreement, the leaders will engage with the members of each constituency to gauge their opinions and ensure that the decisions made are favored by the rank and file. This approach aims to avoid unnecessary costs and conflicts during the general elections.
One of the main points of contention is the allocation of Molepolole South, which the BNF is adamant about obtaining. In the 2019 elections, the UDC was the runner-up in Molepolole South, securing the second position in seven out of eight wards. Other contested constituencies include Metsimotlhabe, Kgatleng East and West, Mmadinare, Francistown East, Shashe West, Boteti East, and Lerala Maunatlala.
The criteria used for constituency allocation have also become a point of dispute among the UDC member parties. The issue of incumbency is particularly contentious, as the criterion for constituency allocation suggests that current holders of UDC’s council and parliamentary seats should be given priority for re-election without undergoing primary elections. Disadvantaged parties argue that this approach limits democratic competition and hinders the emergence of potentially more capable candidates.
Another disputed criterion is the allocation based on the strength and popularity of a party in specific areas. Parties argue that this is a subjective criterion that leads to disputes and favoritism, as clear metrics for strength and visibility cannot be defined. The BNF, in particular, questions the demands of the new entrants, the BPF and AP, as they lack a traceable track record to support their high expectations.
The unity and cohesion of the UDC are at stake, with the BPF and AP expressing dissatisfaction and considering withdrawing from the negotiations. Therefore, it is crucial for the leaders to expedite their meeting and find a resolution to these disputes.
In the midst of these negotiations, the BNF has already secured 15 constituencies within the UDC coalition. While the negotiations are still ongoing, BNF Chairman Dr. Molotsi revealed that they have traditionally held these constituencies and are expecting to add more to their tally. The constituencies include Gantsi North, Gantsi South, Kgalagadi North, Kgalagadi South, Good Hope – Mmathethe, Kanye North, Kanye South, Lobatse, Molepolole North, Gaborone South, Gaborone North, Gaborone Bonnignton North, Takatokwane, Letlhakeng, and Tlokweng.
The resolution of the contested constituencies will test the ability of the UDC to present a united front in the 2024 National Elections will depend on the decisions made by the three leaders. It is essential for them to demonstrate maturity and astuteness in resolving the constituency allocation deadlock and ensuring the cohesion of the UDC.
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Repeat flight-risk suspect pays the piper
In Botswana, the Constitution Section 5 (3) (b) provides that conditions of bail are necessary to ensure that an accused appears at a later date for trial or for proceedings preliminary to trial. These conditions may include restrictions on interfering with state witnesses, the payment of a certain amount, the provision of sureties, the submission of travel documents, reporting to the police regularly, and appearing for all court mentions or proceedings. Failure to abide by these conditions can result in the revocation of bail. Robert Seditseng, a murder accused who has been detained since 2016, is currently facing the consequences of not adhering to his bail conditions – therefore paying the piper.
Despite numerous unsuccessful bail applications over the past five years, Gaborone High Court judge Michael Leburu denied Seditseng bail this week. Seditseng had requested to be set free before his trial starts on April 12th, but his freedom will now depend on the verdict. He is charged with the murder of his girlfriend, Siscah Mutukee, on June 22nd, 2016, in Charleshill.
Judge Leburu ruled that Seditseng is not a candidate for bail due to being a flight risk, as he has previously absconded from court. Defense lawyer David Ndlovu pleaded with the court to consider the time Seditseng has already spent in prison, but Leburu questioned whether there was any guarantee that Seditseng would not abscond again, given that he had done so twice before.
An affidavit from Investigations officer (IO), Constable Kedibonye Botsalo, supports the view that Seditseng is not a suitable candidate for bail due to his tendency to abscond when granted bail. The affidavit explains that Seditseng was initially denied bail by the magistrate court due to ongoing investigations and the possibility of tampering with evidence. However, a concession was later made by the prosecution, and Seditseng was granted conditional bail by the lower court.
The court documents reveal that Seditseng failed to appear before court on March 7th, 2016, without providing any explanation. As a result, a warrant for his arrest was issued. The case proceeded without him on several occasions until he finally appeared before court on July 13th, 2017. On that day, Seditseng’s bail was revoked due to his inability to provide valid reasons for his absences.
On October 4th, 2017, Seditseng was granted bail for the second time. However, he was once again absent from court on October 31st, 2017, without providing any reasons. He continued to be absent from court on five subsequent occasions until his arrest and appearance before court on August 30th, 2018.
During a period of nine months, Seditseng absconded from court without providing any reasons for his actions. This repeated pattern of absconding demonstrates a clear disregard for the bail conditions and raises concerns about his willingness to appear for trial.
Given Seditseng’s history of absconding and the potential risk of him doing so again, Judge Leburu’s decision to deny him bail is justified. The purpose of bail is to ensure the accused’s presence at trial, and Seditseng has repeatedly shown a lack of commitment to fulfilling this obligation. It is crucial to prioritize the safety of the community and the integrity of the justice system by keeping flight-risk suspects like Seditseng in custody until their trial is concluded.
In conclusion, the denial of bail to repeat flight-risk suspect Robert Seditseng is a necessary measure to ensure his appearance at trial. His history of absconding from court and failure to provide valid reasons for his actions demonstrate a disregard for the bail conditions and raise concerns about his willingness to face justice. By denying him bail, the court is prioritizing the safety of the community and upholding the integrity of the justice system.